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Ash4781

End Of House Price Boom Is In Sight

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Guest grumpy-old-man

yes we will experience a worse version of the USA soft landing my ar$e that they are experiencing right now. ;):lol:

I just love this bit:

" Many factors have led to house prices rising, more than trebling in fact, since May 1997. They include rising employment, rising numbers of households, limited new housing supply and the emergence of buy-to-let. As people’s confidence in conventional pensions has declined, so their belief in property has increased."

you know when people know exactly what has fuelled the problem, but always put it as the last bullet point, almost like a "oh, & btl of course" ;)

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Is the bank of england trying to engineer a soft landing with its minor interest rates rises of 0.25%, sensing a softly softly approach is needed. Possibly why Ruth Kelly's lot are ramming HIPs down the throat, they want to ease them in for Aug 1st, possibly to see what the next interest rise is going to stall a market. You never know, they may delay bringing in HIPs again.

Facts speak out for themselves the end of the house price boom is definitly in sight.

Good post OP.

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Is the bank of england trying to engineer a soft landing with its minor interest rates rises of 0.25%, sensing a softly softly approach is needed. Possibly why Ruth Kelly's lot are ramming HIPs down the throat, they want to ease them in for Aug 1st, possibly to see what the next interest rise is going to stall a market. You never know, they may delay bringing in HIPs again.

Facts speak out for themselves the end of the house price boom is definitly in sight.

Good post OP.

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articl...C1-ArticlePage2

Yes the problem now is that the market says more rate rises.

So can the MPC cut ?

Edited by Ash4781

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Guest grumpy-old-man
It's 2005 all over again. Evidence of flat prices in many areas, even localised falls, properties on the market for months outside the London area.

Interest rate cuts are in the offing I reckon. Pump that bubble.

cutting interest rates won't make a difference anyway now imo, peoples lives are too saturated with debt, all MEW'd out & nowhere to hide. :lol:

IR's are going up, not down my internet bull. ;)

edited - this is not a repeat of 2005, trust me.

Edited by grumpy-old-man

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cutting interest rates won't make a difference anyway now imo, peoples lives are too saturated with debt, all MEW'd out & nowhere to hide. :lol:

IR's are going up, not down my internet bull. ;)

edited - this is not a repeat of 2005, trust me.

Japanese style deflation ?

Edited by Ash4781

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Japanese style deflation ?

yes, ok there is that scenario, one I haven't ruled out.

& this could look a likely outcome, as deflation needs a huge boom period just prior & then a big contraction of the money suppy, a contraction which is starting to happen now ??

this would mean that your money would buy you more goods ? surly this would only work for countries that don't import heavily ? asian goods are becoming more expensive, they are covering their pay increases by upping the price of their goods...so....won't that in effect mean we have to spend more to get less (abroad that is). If we made stuff then it might pan out.

I am a novice in this area, so go easy. :unsure:

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I think he was more interested in plugging his book :

PS: Last week I did a talk at Chatham House on my China-India book, The Dragon and the Elephant, and a launch at the Institute of Economic Affairs

Don't buy property, buy his book !

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"Does that mean a house-price crash? Not in my view. House-price crashes are rare in Britain and have never occurred in the absence of recession."

Smith is either not a very good economic historian or he is being deliberately economical with the truth in order to mislead readers and/or pump up the market by stating "it's different this time."

Mr Smith, you are a muppet - the last HPC (which started in 1989-90) preceded and caused the recession of 1992 onwards! But you knew that anyway didn't you - you VI liar!

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"Does that mean a house-price crash? Not in my view. House-price crashes are rare in Britain and have never occurred in the absence of recession."

Smith is either not a very good economic historian or he is being deliberately economical with the truth in order to mislead readers and/or pump up the market by stating "it's different this time."

Mr Smith, you are a muppet - the last HPC (which started in 1989-90) preceded and caused the recession of 1992 onwards! But you knew that anyway didn't you - you VI liar!

100% spot on, we have a consumer driven economy, one follows the other, house prices rise, we spend more and feel rich, house prices drop we feel poor, we save more, we spend less and recessions start, its a very fine balancing act, Mr Smith is clearly an extra from the muppet show.

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I love it! So predictable for the VIs. "Soft landing" was being bandied around by David "Mr Realestate" Lereah, chief economist for the US EA association. Dave was proven wrong and he has now resigned. So much for soft landings following years of housing hyperinflation.

That the VIs are using this language proves it is over. They hope for the best in a dire situation and try to convince the sheeple that they are not going to lose a penny and that all that easy money will be kept. Dream on...... :P

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