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Hamish mate,

your speaking tripe...

Do you know what would happen to the companies and the employees tax code if they receive a redundancy package and then got rehired by same company... I suggest you look into it..

anyway how is rehiring now all service companies are cutting by 40%..?

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Hamish mate,

your speaking tripe...

Do you know what would happen to the companies and the employees tax code if they receive a redundancy package and then got rehired by same company... I suggest you look into it..

anyway how is rehiring now all service companies are cutting by 40%..?

Nope, absolutely guaranteed they are back in the same company, on the same money, as the cutbacks are being reversed. And laughing all the way to the bank at the moment.

They may be in as contractors rather than staff I suppose. But absolutely back at work.

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sounds like shyte

my companies not rolled out yet the redundacies they announced in 0109.

but we are going through change in geormarkets as well which will involve aberdeen not being region centre.

that will lose more bodies

major oil services company

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Shell to cut 350-450 senior managers

LONDON (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) plans to cut 350-450 senior management roles as it restructures to cut costs and improve operational performance, according to a website to which Shell employees post internal information.

The cuts represent almost 30 percent of Shell's "Senior Executive Group" layer of management, John Donovan, the operator of the Royaldutchshellplc.com website said. Earlier this week Shell announced a major restructuring but gave no targets for job or cost cuts.

The Royaldutchshellplc.com website was the first to reveal news of the planned restructuring.

Shell declined to comment.

Quite a few of these will be from Aberdeen, and for every senior manager you will most likely lose a clerical position or two. Monday will be a shocker for some as they check their emails.

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Shell to cut 350-450 senior managers

Quite a few of these will be from Aberdeen, and for every senior manager you will most likely lose a clerical position or two. Monday will be a shocker for some as they check their emails.

But Hamish says the are employing loads of people....

I dont understand anymore...

and Aberdeen house prices are so ridiculous...just looked through ASPC and compared a bundle of houses on Nethouseprices...everything from 2005 about 150% higher and 50% higher than 2007...

What a joke...

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But Hamish says the are employing loads of people....

I dont understand anymore...

and Aberdeen house prices are so ridiculous...just looked through ASPC and compared a bundle of houses on Nethouseprices...everything from 2005 about 150% higher and 50% higher than 2007...

What a joke...

Meh. They will stay on the market for a long, long time. Accidental landlords will abound and drive down the rents.

There is no upside to a property price crash for inflexible and unrealistic sellers.

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For sale on ASPC:

Today (1 June 2009)

For sale : 1176

Added in last week : 75 (6%)

Added in last month : 298 (25%)

Over a month : 878 (75%)

And for lease: 281

Added in last week: 26 (9%)

Added in last month: 116 (41%)

Over a month: 165 (59%)

Edited by The McGlashan
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Got my ASPC property email this morning and had a quick look at the home report for the first property to see how the valuation compared with the asking price and what the surveyor said about the market. The offers over price and valuation were the same. The surveyor had this to say:

"The property market has been affected by the general downturn in the economy and in particular within the financial service sector. However the property market in the north east of Scotland at present appears to have not been affected to the same extent as other parts of the United Kingdom"

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Got my ASPC property email this morning and had a quick look at the home report for the first property to see how the valuation compared with the asking price and what the surveyor said about the market. The offers over price and valuation were the same. The surveyor had this to say:

"The property market has been affected by the general downturn in the economy and in particular within the financial service sector. However the property market in the north east of Scotland at present appears to have not been affected to the same extent as other parts of the United Kingdom"

Here are a couple of my favourites:

"The local property market is slower at the present time with properties generally taking longer to sell"

This one's the best:

"In line with most of the country, the local property market has deteriorated over the last year and the

supply of property on the market now exceeds demand"

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For sale on ASPC:

Today (1 June 2009)

For sale : 1176

Added in last week : 75 (6%)

Added in last month : 298 (25%)

Over a month : 878 (75%)

And for lease: 281

Added in last week: 26 (9%)

Added in last month: 116 (41%)

Over a month: 165 (59%)

That's a fair few sellers for our small city. You are very good with the numbers and charts, so how does that fair with June 07 and 08? I would assume that June/July are considered annual peaks for buying as well.

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That's a fair few sellers for our small city. You are very good with the numbers and charts, so how does that fair with June 07 and 08? I would assume that June/July are considered annual peaks for buying as well.

On June 4 '07 Mr Gruff posted:

For sale : 1014

Added in last week : 172 (16.9%)

Added in last month : 684 (67.5%)

Over a month : 330 (32.5%)

Don't know about 08...

What I do know is that the ratio of buyers to sellers is very much improved (from our point of view). There are many more sellers than buyers - the ratio is at a historic low.

Picture_1.png

post-14504-1244024659_thumb.png

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sorry guys... im just about to buy!!! :rolleyes:

20% off peak by my reconing. 9/10 boxes ticked. to tick the final box it would have to be in aberdeen as opposed to a 20 minute commute. however to tick that final box would require a house thats currently about 350k-500k in town/ suburbs. i fully expect prices to fall further however there are some very unique features of this house that are very rare at my price range and still rare at higher prices. if the worst case scenario happens and im "stuck there all my life" it has more than enough space potential to turn 2 bedrooms into 3 and a huge garden etc. plus my figures are based on current salary of which im 99% sure i will be gettting a promotion in 6-12 months time. il let you guys know more details when the deals complete.

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RoS raw data for April out today - unsurprising spring bounce underway.

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/la_apr_09.pdf

Aberdeen City average price = £151,491

Month-on-month change = +2% (and +12% volume)

Year-on-year change = -10% (and a -54% drop in volume)

Change from peak (July 07) = -18% (and a -67% drop in volume)

Picture_3.pngPicture_4.png

Aberdeenshire average price = £178,486

Month-on-month change = -1% no bounce yet (and +24% volume)

Year-on-year change = -6% (and a -46% drop in volume)

Change from peak (July 08) = -16% (and a -40% drop in volume)

post-14504-1244200260_thumb.png

post-14504-1244200294_thumb.png

Edited by The McGlashan
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Aberdeen City average price = £151,491

Month-on-month change = +2% (and +12% volume)

Interesting. April last year was down on March, this year it's up.

Last year, May, June, and July also showed increases.

The concept of a 10% spring bounce is suddenly looking much more likely than the -3% previously discussed by some...... ;)

And if I am also right about next winters falls being smaller than last winters, then we could well have already seen the bottom for Aberdeen, or close to it at least. Particularly given the current trajectory of Oil prices.

M4rk's purchasing decision is starting to look better and better by the day. :lol:

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Interesting. April last year was down on March, this year it's up.

Last year, May, June, and July also showed increases.

The concept of a 10% spring bounce is suddenly looking much more likely than the -3% previously discussed by some...... ;)

And if I am also right about next winters falls being smaller than last winters, then we could well have already seen the bottom for Aberdeen, or close to it at least. Particularly given the current trajectory of Oil prices.

M4rk's purchasing decision is starting to look better and better by the day. :lol:

Monthly figures are, by their nature, 'noisy', and one month's change does not make a trend. For instance, during the most pronounced bubble phase of the bull run in Aberdeen between May 2005 and July 2007, monthly data showed drops on 8 months out of 25. Triumphalism seems out of place on the basis of one month's figures.

Last year's 'spring/summer bounce' between March and September was negative at -3%. It is worth pointing out that this was before the banking crisis, before the onset of recession and before the steep rises in unemployment being experienced at the moment. Oil traded above $110 throughout the entire period.

So, if this year's 'spring/summer bounce' follows the trajectory of last year's, Aberdeen's average house price will be around £147k, or 22% down from peak by September.

On what do you base your expectation that this year's bounce will be any larger than last year's?

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Monthly figures are, by their nature, 'noisy', and one month's change does not make a trend. For instance, during the most pronounced bubble phase of the bull run in Aberdeen between May 2005 and July 2007, monthly data showed drops on 8 months out of 25. Triumphalism seems out of place on the basis of one month's figures.

Last year's 'spring/summer bounce' between March and September was negative at -3%. It is worth pointing out that this was before the banking crisis, before the onset of recession and before the steep rises in unemployment being experienced at the moment. Oil traded above $110 throughout the entire period.

So, if this year's 'spring/summer bounce' follows the trajectory of last year's, Aberdeen's average house price will be around £147k, or 22% down from peak by September.

On what do you base your expectation that this year's bounce will be any larger than last year's?

Very interesting. I do agree. Getting excited by a rise, or a fall, based on one months data seems a little futile. This goes for bulls and bears.

8 monthly falls between 2005 & 2007. Wow. Quarterly YoY figures are the only real decent indicators.

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Last year's 'spring/summer bounce' between March and September was negative at -3%.

No, thats not right.

Last years spring/summer bounce lasted from April to July. And was approximately a 9% rise.

It is worth pointing out that this was before the banking crisis,

No, thats not right.

The banking crisis in the UK began with the nationalisation of Northern Rock, many months earlier. The credit crunch was well underway in 2008, mortgage rationing was already endemic, LTV's and LTI's were being significantly restricted. If you are referring to the second part of the banking crisis, ie, the domino effect triggered by the Lehmans failure in Sept, then fine, but of course Lehmans failed because the system was already iin crisis.

before the onset of recession

No, thats not right. Or rather, you're being misleading.

GDP declined in Q2 2008, Q3 2008, and Q4 2008. We were in a deeply recessionary environment throughout 2008. The "onset" of recession implies the beginning, the start. The fact that a recession is not technically declared until after 2 quarters of declining GDP growth in no way changes the fact that the country has already experienced declining output for 6 months at that point. The economy was shrinking through out Q2 and Q3 last year. The economy was shrinking throughout the bounce.

and before the steep rises in unemployment being experienced at the moment.

Well, that is right, to a point. But the rate of unemployment increase is slowing dramatically at the moment.

So, if this year's 'spring/summer bounce' follows the trajectory of last year's, Aberdeen's average house price will be around £147k, or 22% down from peak by September.

No, thats not right.

If this years bounce follows the trajectory of last years, prices will be up 9% by July.

The question then becomes, will the falls in the second half of this year be as steep as they were last year? Given that you have already pointed out the second stage of the banking crisis, the declaration of recession, large rises in unemployment, and in fact the meltdown of the global economy all occurred during that time, the answer is most likely that they will not.

Things are improving rapidly. Sentiment has changed, and consumer confidence is rising.. Most commentators now believe the worst of the falls are well behind us, both for the economy, and house prices.

LTV's are increasing, mortgage approvals are rising, lending criteria are loosening, QE has resulted in increased liquidity in the system.

Things genuinely are getting better. We're not there yet, but we are getting there.

On what do you base your expectation that this year's bounce will be any larger than last year's?

I'd be quite content with 9% by July. But it may well be more. Last year economic conditions were worsening. This year they are improving. Last year mortgage availability was worsening, this year it is improving. Last year consumer confidence was declining. This year it is improving.

On what do you base your expectation that falls in the second half of this year, after the bounce, will not be smaller than last years falls?

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No, thats not right.

Last years spring/summer bounce lasted from April to July. And was approximately a 9% rise.

Suit yourself, we're both right - dependant upon the time-horizon chosen. The figures are in the public domain.

I'll not bother responding to the rest of your pedantry - the thrust of what I said was true in the context of brevity and asking you a simple question (why you think falls to Sept this year will be less than those which the figures show last year), to which your answer was:

...the rate of unemployment increase is slowing dramatically at the moment...

Things are improving rapidly. Sentiment has changed, and consumer confidence is rising.. Most commentators now believe the worst of the falls are well behind us, both for the economy, and house prices.

LTV's are increasing, mortgage approvals are rising, lending criteria are loosening, QE has resulted in increased liquidity in the system.

Things genuinely are getting better. We're not there yet, but we are getting there.

I'd be quite content with 9% by July. But it may well be more. Last year economic conditions were worsening. This year they are improving. Last year mortgage availability was worsening, this year it is improving. Last year consumer confidence was declining. This year it is improving.

A morbidly obese patient puts on 14 kilos over 2 months.

The doctor tells him to lose some weight or face serious health consequences.

He re-visits the doctor 2 months hence.

He has gained 7 kilos in that time, and cannot understand why the doctor remains concerned.

"My rate of weight gain has decreased, so my health outlook must be better!"

Big Macs all round.

On what do you base your expectation that falls in the second half of this year, after the bounce, will not be smaller than last years falls?

I haven't said what my expectations are.

Edited by The McGlashan
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Suit yourself, we're both right - dependant upon the time-horizon chosen. The figures are in the public domain.

Ah. So the spring bounce is only a negative when you include the declines in the months before and after it. Fair enough.

I'll not bother responding to the rest of your pedantry -

Pedantry never seemed to bother you before.....

the thrust of what I said was true in the context of brevity

No, thats not right.

Most of what you said was demonstrably false. And the rest was just disengenious.

I haven't said what my expectations are.

No. Interesting that.

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH
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Very interesting. I do agree. Getting excited by a rise, or a fall, based on one months data seems a little futile. This goes for bulls and bears.

8 monthly falls between 2005 & 2007. Wow. Quarterly YoY figures are the only real decent indicators.

Here you go:

RoS_Aberdeen_City_Quarterly_YoY_Change.png

from this:

RoS_Aberdeen_City_Quarterly_Average.png

post-14504-1244389962_thumb.png

post-14504-1244390029_thumb.png

Edited by The McGlashan
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While I was compiling the data for the RoS Quarterly graphs, I identified some other interesting stats:

Aberdeen City Quarterly Sales Volumes. Now lower than any point in the published data set.

Aberdeen_City_Sales_Volume__RoS_.png

and

Aberdeen City Total Quarterly Market Value. Again, now lower than any point in the published data set.

This is the most bearish thing I have ever seen in relation to the Aberdeen housing market. The total value of the market has declined by an astonishing amount with incredible speed. It is down by an eye-watering 74% in the last 18 months. :o

Aberdeen_City_Total_Market_Value__RoS_.png

post-14504-1244388209_thumb.png

post-14504-1244388266_thumb.png

Edited by The McGlashan
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Here you go:

RoS_Aberdeen_City_Quarterly_YoY_Change.png

from this:

RoS_Aberdeen_City_Quarterly_Average.png

Cheers for that. Aberdeen had 5 insane quarters in a row - Q4 2006 to Q4 2007.

I honestly don't know how anyone can look at that and think - "that's it crash complete - done and dusted."

I just cannot fathom it. It's barely even begun IMO.

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    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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