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Hamish - where do price falls come into it !!??

Do you really think prices won't increase by an average of 1% a year over the next 25 years? Isn't the long term average 3%?

Assuming only 1% price gains , within the context of mortgage interest, saving interest and inflation as high as the example gives, is proper doom-monger stuff.

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See above post.

And also a psychiatrist if you think 10% falls per year for the next 5 years are even a remote possibility.

Over 25 years ? Why are we talking over 25 years ? You seem desperate for your theory that buying at any time works out over the long run. The very tool you give us here kicks that firmly into touch. That is why my simple example was over 5 years. A reasonable time frame for someone to wait it out.

My 10% YoY fall was just a simple example to show how one sided and blinkered your example was. It is also entirely possible. Nobody knows. I am sure the good folk in California would have had similar thoughts to yourself in 2006. ;)

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Ok Hamish - I have just put in figures roughly based on the reality of today. Put in HPC of 10% yoy. You would agree this is entirely possible to carry on for another few years ?

So over a 3 year HPC of 10% per year, which is far from the worst case estimate, the loss is about 80k by failing to rent and wait.

This is from your very own calculator. Are you going to tell me this is wrong ? It is using the very calculator you provided yourself !!

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Put in HPC of 10% yoy. You would agree this is entirely possible to carry on for another few years ?

No, I would not.

Not even a remote possibility. In fact, not even a remote possibility of 10% YoY declines for one more year.

The chances of prices 5 years from now being less than 5% greater than today are slim to none. And of seeing less than 1% average growth for 10 years, or 25 years? It would require an end-of-days scenario given the other factors at play in the UK.

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No, I would not.

Not even a remote possibility. In fact, not even a remote possibility of 10% YoY declines for one more year.

The chances of prices 5 years from now being less than 5% greater than today are slim to none. And of seeing less than 1% average growth for 10 years, or 25 years? It would require an end-of-days scenario given the other factors at play in the UK.

:o

:o

:o

Not even a remote possibility ? Well there we have it. We all knew it already. You have made your mind up. You know what is happening. Nobody else does. What you say will happen. What others say COULD happen is impossible.

You seem a fairly smart chap sometims - however you are one of the most blinkered posters on this entire site !!

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No, I would not.

Not even a remote possibility. In fact, not even a remote possibility of 10% YoY declines for one more year.

The chances of prices 5 years from now being less than 5% greater than today are slim to none. And of seeing less than 1% average growth for 10 years, or 25 years? It would require an end-of-days scenario given the other factors at play in the UK.

Citations?

Evidence?

Reasoned argument?

No, just unfounded assertion and blind faith.

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Citations?

Evidence?

Reasoned argument?

No, just unfounded assertion and blind faith.

No, just a summary of the previous 1000+ posts full of detailed argument.

Can't be ar5ed repeating the same arguments with the same people ad nauseum ad infinitum.

House prices falling close to 70% from peak is La-La Land mentalism, but thats what would need to happen for CCC's case to hold water.

House prices averaging only a 1% increase per year for 25 years is incredibly conservative, and yet even with such a ridiculously low estimate, the person buying over renting is almost a quarter of a million pounds better off in that time frame.

There is no credible, rational, or reasoned case that can be made for private renting being financially better than buying over the term of a typical mortgage, or at any point after 10 years, and in all but the most extreme doomsday scenarios, even at 5 years.

Yet still a few idiots around here try. :rolleyes:

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Hamish

As someone who has 2 properties - why bother commenting - you are going to sit tight

you need to get a life

average 12 posts a day since you joined 4 months ago

I'd rather work and go down the pub as i do

cos whatever ******** we spam on here aint going to change anything

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No, just a summary of the previous 1000+ posts full of detailed argument.

Can't be ar5ed repeating the same arguments with the same people ad nauseum ad infinitum.

House prices falling close to 70% from peak is La-La Land mentalism, but thats what would need to happen for CCC's case to hold water.

House prices averaging only a 1% increase per year for 25 years is incredibly conservative, and yet even with such a ridiculously low estimate, the person buying over renting is almost a quarter of a million pounds better off in that time frame.

There is no credible, rational, or reasoned case that can be made for private renting being financially better than buying over the term of a typical mortgage, or at any point after 10 years, and in all but the most extreme doomsday scenarios, even at 5 years.

Yet still a few idiots around here try. :rolleyes:

:blink:

100k -10% = 90

90k -10% = 81

81k - 10% = 72.9

72.9 - 10% = 65.6

65.6 - 10% = 59k

As the amount gets smaller the % equals a smaller capital amount also. Not the other way around.

A 10% fall for 5 years results in an overall fall of 41%. This was actually just an example I showed to display how blinkered your own ideas were. It was not my prediction. However I think it won't be far off reality.

You do realise most of the big banks who control lending are looking at UK residential falls of over 40 % ? Their global markets divisions don't think these numbers are in la la land. So shall I inform them that you are in fact correct and they are wrong ? I have seen an extract that RBS global markets give their customers. IIRC they are predicting 46% falls.

And you know what ? Even if they are wrong it doesn't matter - they control the lending. That is why the only mortgages where you get the best deals are for deposits of 40% plus. They have worked out these are the only customers where the risk of negative equity is small. A margin call in advance. Pure and simple.

Hamish you are so wrong wrong wrong on this one.

Even if you are right right right, you are not the one controlling lending. So it doesn't matter !!

You starting to realise how futile your hopes are yet.................... :rolleyes:

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Theres been some reference to buying versus renting lately again.

Just worth posting the following figures in case anyone is still confused..... :rolleyes:

Based on the following......

£250,000 house, 6% interest, 10% deposit, savings rate of 4.5% (for the deposit if you saved it instead of buying), annual inflation of 3% (with rent adjusted accordingly), annual house price inflation of only 1%, and rent of £1250 (5% yield, very common for Aberdeen).

After 5 years, buyer is better off by £12,793

After 10 years, buyer is better off by £43,731

After 25 years, buyer is better off by £226,118.

Interesting tool for calculating here......

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/cal...icle5771800.ece

:lol::lol::lol: Assuming a £250000 house with a 10% deposit and interest rates of 6% mortgage payments are

£1564 per month. Tells me that your typical BTL clown show is pretty well fooked.

Lets not worry about the fact that the same house was probably worth 275000 a year ago. ;)

Do it again, do it again Hamish.

This time factor in say a £40K deposit, and assume that the potential FTB is living in a £550 pcm flat whilst watching the market burn.

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No, just a summary of the previous 1000+ posts full of detailed argument.

Can't be ar5ed repeating the same arguments with the same people ad nauseum ad infinitum.

House prices falling close to 70% from peak is La-La Land mentalism, but thats what would need to happen for CCC's case to hold water.

House prices averaging only a 1% increase per year for 25 years is incredibly conservative, and yet even with such a ridiculously low estimate, the person buying over renting is almost a quarter of a million pounds better off in that time frame.

There is no credible, rational, or reasoned case that can be made for private renting being financially better than buying over the term of a typical mortgage, or at any point after 10 years, and in all but the most extreme doomsday scenarios, even at 5 years.

Yet still a few idiots around here try. :rolleyes:

:lol:

How about you use the very calculator you showed us. Put in falls of 5%. Look at the numbers over 1-5 years. Remember that this level of price falls is at the very most optimistic level. Even VI's would think that total falls of about 20% peak to trough is mental. So these numbers are not in any way in la la land. In fact yes maybe they are - however on the other side.

After 1 year: -22k

After 2 years: -37k

After 3 years: -51k

After 4 years: -64k

After 5 years: -76k

Hamish - your premise basically comes down to the following simple fact. If house prices are rising it makes sense to buy. I don't think any of us would disagree with that basic premise. However you seem completely unable to comprehend the opposite situation. Even though it is actually happening where you live today.

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Calling Hamish !!

You read the replies earlier. Is this going to be another example where you simply deny the facts put in front of you ?

It never happened. Those posts do not exist. I am Hamish !!

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The man is an idiot. Cant seem to get his head round the fact that when house prices fall it is better to defer your house purchase. Also seems to think that everyone buys with 100% cash as he always fails to factor in the interest costs on borrowed money.

Now he is spouting his conservative long term growth assumptions of 1% and trying to convince us that buying at any point is better than renting. Does Hamish think that piling into shares when the FTSE was at it's peak was a better investment decision than holding on to your cash and investing in the trough????

Hamish - For anyone who sold out @ peak and currently renting at < the cost of interest only mortgage is quids in. I'm paying £800/month for a 4 bed that sold for £242 at peak. I'm not lucky enough to be in a position to buy cash so will require a mortgage.

Your sums just dont add up.

As Euan said earlier - get a life. You have your houses and are quite happy with your situation. It is a pretty sad state of affairs when you do not have anything better to do that come here to gloat and try to spin high house prices as being a good thing. We know you dont have kids so obviously this has helped shape you into the person you are today. Pity anyone who counts you as one of their friends.

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I hear from my contact at Gavin Bain & Co that their colleagues round the corner at Anderson Bain are now under such pressure to reduce costs that they have terminated the contract with their office cleaners. The 'property ladies' are now expected to clean and vacuum their own offices (and those of the solicitors) at the end of the working day!

How glamorous to be an estate agent / charwoman!

Edited by The McGlashan
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Given that interest rates are at the lowest they have ever been since the current system of the world was instituted, and that they cannot go any lower, do you really believe that a 3% average mortgage rate is credible over the 25 year span?

Do the calculation again with the average at 8%. Then do it again with the average at 10%.

The figures I've quoted are for a mortgage which is currently available and which has an interest rate of 3%.

All the rental figures quoted here never take inflation into account. If they don't why should my calculation take interest rate changes into account?

Edited by aberdeen07
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The figures I've quoted are for a mortgage which is currently available and which has an interest rate of 3%.

All the rental figures quoted here never take inflation into account. If they don't why should my calculation take interest rate changes into account?

The calculator provided by Hamish does. Still doesn't make much difference !!

What is likely to happen over the next 2-4 years ?

Capital values, that are already falling, will probably fall more.

Rentals, that are already falling, will probably fall more.

Interest rates, that cannot get any lower, will probably rise.

These are the simple facts. Not guaranteed, but likely. Anyone buying today IMO is mental.

Edited by ccc
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The figures I've quoted are for a mortgage which is currently available and which has an interest rate of 3%.

All the rental figures quoted here never take inflation into account. If they don't why should my calculation take interest rate changes into account?

Ah, I see you've answered my question with a question. So I'll ask again:

Do you really believe that a 3% average mortgage rate is credible over the 25 year span? Yes or no will suffice.

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Ah, I see you've answered my question with a question. So I'll ask again:

Do you really believe that a 3% average mortgage rate is credible over the 25 year span? Yes or no will suffice.

Can I answer this one. :lol:

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I hear from my contact at Gavin Bain & Co that their colleagues round the corner at Anderson Bain are now under such pressure to reduce costs that they have terminated the contract with their office cleaners. The 'property ladies' are now expected to clean and vacuum their own offices (and those of the solicitors) at the end of the working day!

How glamorous to be an estate agent / charwoman!

If this indicates problems on the horizon for this company, then it is schadenfreude as far as I am concerned.

I would never use them again.

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I don't know about you lot, but I have noticed a very real slowdown in the local Aberdeen economy as of late. Restaurants are often empty, bars and clubs are quiet. People are definitely holding onto their cash.

Retailers and proprietors will be feeling the pain this winter.

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Registers of Scotland News Release - May 2009

Detached Residential Average (Mean) Property Prices in Scotland

Aberdeen City -24.4%

Volume of Detached Residential Sales in Scotland

Aberdeen City -50.0%

Semi - Detached Average (Mean) Sale Price

Aberdeen City -15.0%

Volume of Semi-detached Residential Sales in Scotland

Aberdeen City -44.5%

Terraced Residential Average (Mean) Property Prices in Scotland

Aberdeen City -0.9%

Volume of Terraced Residential Sales in Scotland

Aberdeen City -47.0%

Flatted Residential Average (Mean) Property Prices in Scotland

Aberdeen City -5.1%

Volume of Flatted Residential Sales in Scotland

Aberdeen City -45.2%

Some interesting reading in the report. Looks like flats and crapboxes are fairing better than detached and semis! Ouch.

Houses ain't selling, prices are crashing....and this is only year 1 of the recession.

I wonder what 2013 will look like?

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The quarterly RoS data for Aberdeen city shows a 18% decline from peak.

I can't be bothered finding Hamish's prediction again. IIRC it was falls in Aberdeen City, in total, of 14-16 % ? Anyone confirm. If that is the case then he is wrong already. Now that is pretty poor going. Considering he has only been posting for 5 months.

Surely you are revising your predictions now Hamish ?

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  • 415 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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