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21 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

 

Q2 onwards will probably be a bit of a bloodbath, unless the blurb about pent-up demand is to be believed.
 

I think there will be a very short term spike in volumes as delayed transactions finally hit completion, once the lockdown rules are relaxed. Yes, so its highly likely we will hear stories of the rampant 'housing market recovery' in the local press.

In real terms house price falls will lag behind by 1-2 years, which is always the case. The more immedeate impact we can see will be sales volumes falling a few months after lockdown measures are lifted. My prediction is that we will continue to see Aberdeen house prices creeping lower over the next year as is the current trend, and then begin to see much steeper declines in 2021- possibility of 2 digit percentage falls again. Nonetheless I don't think it will be immedeate, house prices are always slow to catch up.

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On 3/10/2020 at 8:29 PM, delboypass said:

Market:

So does anything think its a good time to Buy oil? any good share tips or we think will get worse with Corona virus and market slowdown and to hold further?

New build parking spaces

I totally agree on zero parking space - westhill and countesswells new builds - 1 parking space for 4 bed houses that typically have 3 or 4 cars..All now parked on the street so down to 1 way traffic most of the times.. They should have to build a minimum of 2 parking spaces for a 2 bed property upwards

Setting aside the sin of market timing for a moment. Avoid oil investments. If you live in Aberdeen you’re tied to oil even if you don’t work in the industry. And if you do, then double time. No need to expose yourself even further to that risk. A basket of oil exploration and production companies (XOP) is down 64% since June 2006 and a basket of service companies (XES) down 91% over same time period. So much for a good long term investment! Plenty good investment opportunities elsewhere. Also, buying individual shares is not for the faint of heart. Any less than 15 companies and you’re taking a lot of company specific risk.

By way of example; the return on the median stock since its inception vs. an investment in the Russell 3000 Index (representing the entire U.S. stock market) was -54%. Two-thirds of all stocks underperformed vs. the Russell 3000 Index, and for 40% of all stocks, their absolute returns were negative. See link 3 below for more detail.

In another study by Longboard Asset Management they find:

- 39% of stocks were unprofitable investments 
- 18.5% of stocks lost at least 75% of their value (The JP Morgan study also finds that 40% of the stocks that suffer this kind of loss never recover)
- 64% of stocks underperformed the Russell 3000
- 25% of stocks were responsible for all of
market’s gains

Picking stocks is not easy and anyone who tells you otherwise is lying to you and themselves, or they are downright delusional. Most likely they just got lucky. Buy a broad index and do something more interesting with your time. That way you’re guaranteed to own the big winners who account for all the gains. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XOP/

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/XES/

JP Morgan - THE RISKS AND REWARDS OF A CONCENTRATED STOCK POSITION

Longboard - The Capitalism Distribution

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https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-building-set-to-be-demolished/

An office building on the Altens Farm Road next to the roundabout at Hareness Road is going to be demolished. This comes a few months after the former GE building in the Bridge of Don was tumbled for a.similar reason.

Despite extensive marketing, the applicant has advised that there has been no interest in securing the occupation of the premises as offices.
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6 minutes ago, Diver Dan said:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-building-set-to-be-demolished/

An office building on the Altens Farm Road next to the roundabout at Hareness Road is going to be demolished. This comes a few months after the former GE building in the Bridge of Don was tumbled for a.similar reason.

 

“Prior to taking forward any application, the applicant are keen that the site is being readied for redevelopment.”

I assume they really mean keen to avoid business rates on an empty office block. 

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On 5/11/2020 at 9:45 PM, regprentice said:

“Prior to taking forward any application, the applicant are keen that the site is being readied for redevelopment.”

I assume they really mean keen to avoid business rates on an empty office block. 

My first thoughts as well. There are acres of empty office space in Aberdeen and I'm sure a lot of owners would like to wash their hands of these liabilities. Some buildings have been empty for years now and no chance of finding occupants anytime soon if ever. They're lucky there's not the same issue with squatters up here that there are some places down south, however, eventually, lack of maintenance and vandalism will soon catch up with them.

On Aberdeen house prices, my own thoughts are that they'll continue to tumble for 2 or 3 years yet, even before the horror show of Covid and present oil price collapse they were still on a downward projectory. There's at least one poster on here always bigging up his good fortune and incredible earnings in his buying and managing of housing stock, but I'm thinking it must be an alias for that guy at ASPC who always tries to polish the proverbial in the quarterly housing reports lol.

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On 11/05/2020 at 21:38, Diver Dan said:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-building-set-to-be-demolished/

An office building on the Altens Farm Road next to the roundabout at Hareness Road is going to be demolished. This comes a few months after the former GE building in the Bridge of Don was tumbled for a.similar reason.

 

And another office block getting demolished in Wellington Circle - Evening Express

Plans to demolish an Aberdeen office building have been approved.

A building warrant was approved by Aberdeen City Council to knock down the KMD Business & Conference Centre on Wellington Circle on Thursday.

The proposals were submitted by Lawrie Demolition on behalf of Leiths Scotland Ltd.

At this rate, Altens is going to be one big demolition site!  Some might call that an improvement.

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7 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

And another office block getting demolished in Wellington Circle - Evening Express

Plans to demolish an Aberdeen office building have been approved.

A building warrant was approved by Aberdeen City Council to knock down the KMD Business & Conference Centre on Wellington Circle on Thursday.

The proposals were submitted by Lawrie Demolition on behalf of Leiths Scotland Ltd.

At this rate, Altens is going to be one big demolition site!  Some might call that an improvement.

That building doesn't even look particularly old, or delapidated. 

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1 minute ago, Ignorantbliss said:

And another office block getting demolished in Wellington Circle - Evening Express

Plans to demolish an Aberdeen office building have been approved.

A building warrant was approved by Aberdeen City Council to knock down the KMD Business & Conference Centre on Wellington Circle on Thursday.

The proposals were submitted by Lawrie Demolition on behalf of Leiths Scotland Ltd.

At this rate, Altens is going to be one big demolition site!  Some might call that an improvement.

Sad days, I learned to drive in those car parks on a Sunday morning

My mum and dad live just around the corner from there. I'm not sure what's going to go in once it's demolished. Clearly there's no demand for new homes, but there are still 100s if not 1000s going up around cove/portlethen now. Clearly no requirement for office buildings, but I wouldn't imagine there's demand for a cinema/resteraunt type retail park either. 

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6 minutes ago, Warwick-Watcher said:

That building doesn't even look particularly old, or delapidated. 

Recently there have been a number of newish blocks demolished simply because it was cheaper to rip them down than pay the business rates. 

Colin Wood, technical manager at Malcolm Allan, said: “The cost of demolition will be less than 12 months of rates. A contractor has been appointed. The main structure will be down within a month. Then we will look at any opportunities for redevelopment.”

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1286454/property-firm-to-demolish-office-block-to-avoid-huge-new-business-rates-bill/

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1805728/mp-blames-demolition-of-aberdeen-office-block-on-ruinous-business-rates/

Edited by regprentice
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3 minutes ago, regprentice said:

Recently there have been a number of newish blocks demolished simply because it was cheaper to rip them down than pay the business rates. 

Colin Wood, technical manager at Malcolm Allan, said: “The cost of demolition will be less than 12 months of rates. A contractor has been appointed. The main structure will be down within a month. Then we will look at any opportunities for redevelopment.”

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/business/north-of-scotland/1286454/property-firm-to-demolish-office-block-to-avoid-huge-new-business-rates-bill/

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1805728/mp-blames-demolition-of-aberdeen-office-block-on-ruinous-business-rates/

Ah, good old government - always there to f@ck things up.

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These guys are comparatively 'fortunate'. Modern steel structures and council can do little to stop them. So they at least have an exit strategy.

But what about all the historic old granite residential blocks that have been converted into offices?

So many are lying empty in the city and surroundings, Union terrace, Albyn place, Carden place, Queens terrace, Golden sq, Union street, Skene street & terrace..... hundreds of empty offices! Pretty sure the city council will not allow them to be knocked down, many are listed buildings. They can be converted into residential blocks but who will buy them in the foreseeable future, plenty on city centre flats have been haemorrhaging value with no takers! They can only sit in hope that there are tenants out there looking for city centre office space.

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3 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

At this rate, Altens is going to be one big demolition site!  Some might call that an improvement.

Altens used to be one of the hottest residential areas, things turned around so quickly! Chock a block with traffic during peak hours. Just empty roads recently apart from the many driving school cars.

Some of the biggest employers have left Altens, started with Nexen, then Amec, Total, Maersk oil and these were the big guys. Many smaller units moved out or shut down and the ones remaining have much reduced staff numbers. There is so much commercial property that are unoccupied in Altens, large office complexes, massive warehouses lying empty. Of these only the Total building was knocked down soon after they left. Some like the massive Maersk house looks eerily quiet. At this rate Altens will look like an industrial ghost town in 10 years time.

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What is going to be fascinating to see after Covid is (ever?) controlled is how much home-working will be retained - and thus dictating how much office space is actually needed.

Companies have put in a lot of resources getting things to work remotely, will they now decide that its actually cheaper and more productive to get people to work from home?  Or has the productivity slumped without the big bad boss looking over the shoulder?  I suspect this whole episode is going to drive O&G even quicker down the road of automation and remote monitoring (and thus lower headcount).

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On 11/05/2020 at 21:38, Diver Dan said:

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-building-set-to-be-demolished/

An office building on the Altens Farm Road next to the roundabout at Hareness Road is going to be demolished. This comes a few months after the former GE building in the Bridge of Don was tumbled for a.similar reason.

 

How old is that office block? 20 yrs old?

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5 hours ago, Sausage said:

How old is that office block? 20 yrs old?

I don't think it's even a decade old. It was put up for auction last year and the winning bid was £400k, for more than 30,000 sq ft of office complex! That's half the price that Oakhill Grange mansion sold for.

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9 hours ago, shortbread said:

I don't think it's even a decade old. It was put up for auction last year and the winning bid was £400k, for more than 30,000 sq ft of office complex! That's half the price that Oakhill Grange mansion sold for.

I remember going for a job interview there for Amec more than a decade ago, nice view of the town but I turned down the job offer for a better day rate elsewhere obvs.

20 years old I reckon.

It’s been empty for 4+ years now, business rates must have been £300k+ a year for them have to decide to demolish, I look forward to the Starbucks drive through on my commute

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6 hours ago, EME said:

I remember going for a job interview there for Amec more than a decade ago, nice view of the town but I turned down the job offer for a better day rate elsewhere obvs.

20 years old I reckon.

Wasn't Amec in the city gate building that's being demolished? Two buildings recently announced in Altens meeting the same fate unfortunately. 

The one I'm on about is the KMD business centre, which is the newer big office block and conference centre located closer to Makro thats being demolished as well. 

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On 14/05/2020 at 12:34, shortbread said:

I don't think it's even a decade old. It was put up for auction last year and the winning bid was £400k, for more than 30,000 sq ft of office complex! That's half the price that Oakhill Grange mansion sold for.

 

Split into 10 flats and make a killing :)

 

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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