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Don’t buy those shell shares yet folks!

RDSB £9.20 with a wee bit further to go I feel

Glad I’ve held off so far after being seriously tempted to go large last Friday 

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2 hours ago, EME said:

Don’t buy those shell shares yet folks!

RDSB £9.20 with a wee bit further to go I feel

Glad I’ve held off so far after being seriously tempted to go large last Friday 

ii analysis yesterday said shell and bp both vulnerable to financial shock

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BP makes more money through its financial trading than it does through oil price.

They have like 1800 traders employed so this volatility is good for them even if they dont say so.

Oceaneering down from a high $83 to a low of $2... ouch ouch ouch

Yes i would hold off until Corona passes to see whats left of housing market and Aberdeen

This could be a big blow. More mergers and acquisitions coming though

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15 hours ago, EME said:

Nobody’s mentioned IR35 reform being delayed by at least 12 months yet

Great news for some :)

Not really.

Most IR35 Oilies will be laid off by now.

 

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15 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Not those who went staff or signed an inside contract

Most firms will be reluctant to reverse changes, it's delaying the inevitable. At some point the govt. will look to push up tax revenue drastically!

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Jeremy Cresswell has been a champion of the Aberdeen O&G industry and has always been upbeat of the sector's future irrespective of the various challenges faced previously. So it's quite damning when he writes something like this albeit unlike earlier he refrains from specifying/predicting the impact of the current scenario on Aberdeen's economic future.

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Big Oil’s triple whammy

It has become clear to me that the oil and gas industry is not just confronted by the perfect storm, rather it is the perfect hurricane. I am of course referring to the Corvid-19 pandemic, the oil price war now raging principally between Saudi Arabia and Russia, plus the global climate crisis.

In the world of upstream hydrocarbons production, I think we have to accept that the North Sea, opened up in the 1960s, is perhaps the most vulnerable offshore province of all and especially the UK sector.

As so many of you are aware, the UKCS is now a deeply mature and expensive place for any oil and gas company with its supply chain to pursue, develop and produce resources. Its “paper thin” fragility was very clearly articulated a day or so ago by Oil and Gas UK’s CEO Deirdre Michie.

I’m going to try and distil the triple whammy down to its essence, starting with Covid-19 as it is wreaking havoc globally and threatens us all, especially the elderly and people burdened by underlying health conditions that may compromise their ability to ward off the virus.

Fortunately, analysts Rystad Energy are modelling the impacts of Covid-19 on energy and are updating it on a daily basis. The story it tells borders on the terrifying for Big Oil, with a massive reduction in global demand for its products predicted.

Here are two key Rystad takeaways:

“We see potential for an unprecedented collapse of global oil demand in the next months.”
And:

“Global oil and petroleum products demand could contract by more than 10 million bpd near-term. Global road fuel consumption (alone) will likely be down by 5 million bpd during the coming weeks.”
An unexpected bonus from Rystad in my view is the profiling of a portfolio of countries and the possible impacts of Covid-19 on those countries.

The UK predictions are dire and a chart shows how appallingly it compares with other European nations regarding critical illness beds provision. This is bound to have an impact in terms of fighting off the virus.

Rystad lists just 237 intensive care unit beds per 100,000 head of population in Britain compared with 865 in the Czech Republic, 575 in Germany, 392 in Greece and 333 in Italy. Only Andorra, Finland and Luxembourg are worse according to the data sourced by Rystad from Imperial College, London and others.

It states that, even “with a mitigation strategy the UK will need 20 months to get through the outbreak.”

That’s nearly two years!

Rystad avoids courting controversy, but the implication of a 20 months battle is that the already semi-crippled UK economy as a result of the Brexit misadventure will be in a dreadful state. Even allowing for a recovery in the oil price to some reasonable level during that period, the UK North Sea will struggle to recover alongside probably every other key industry in Britain.

Turning to the vicious, lunatic oil price war between Moscow and Riyadh, this on its own seriously threatens the viability of the North Sea. Neither country is likely to back down anytime soon. They don’t give a ‘tinker’s cuss’ about the rest of the world and the incredible damage already inflicted to the global oil and gas industry by their obdurate arrogance. They just don’t.

Never forget, the Saudis have a reputation for doing this sort of thing, most recently triggering the 2014 oil price collapse. Indeed this is the fourth oil price war waged by the Saudis.

Price war three broke out in late 2014 when the Saudis decided they’d had enough of non-Opec countries freeloading on the cartel’s production cuts designed to keep oil prices over $100 at that time. Saudi Aramco was instructed to open the taps and the oil price sank to as little as $27.88. Reality is that the North Sea is still struggling to recover from that event.

What is different this time is that there is a pandemic raging to which the Saudis and Russians appear oblivious and this is leading to a dramatic collapse in oil demand, as outlined above at the same time that an extra 2 million or so barrels per day of oil are beginning to flood the global market thanks to the dispute, so making an already bad situation even worse.

As for the climate change crisis and its impacts on Big Oil, anyone who believes that the push towards a cleaner, greener, more sustainable future will grind to a halt will be wrong.

The push may slow but it will rapidly regain momentum, in my opinion.

Don’t forget, however, the green energy sector is also taking a hit as a result of both Covid-19 and this latest oil plus gas price crunch.

Oh dear, what a crazy world we have created for ourselves.

Full article:

https://www.energyvoice.com/opinion/229891/big-oils-triple-whammy/

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23 hours ago, hurlerontheditch said:

Not those who went staff or signed an inside contract

Nah, fake news

I reluctantly signed an inside contract last week but it’s been ripped up

Nothing changes, happy days :)

 

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23 minutes ago, EME said:

Nah, fake news

I reluctantly signed an inside contract last week but it’s been ripped up

Nothing changes, happy days :)

 

I don't know anyone else whose had a contract ripped up.

If your contract is going inside ir35 next year your full period on that contract will be retrospectively assessed as being inside. 

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1 hour ago, regprentice said:

I don't know anyone else whose had a contract ripped up.

If your contract is going inside ir35 next year your full period on that contract will be retrospectively assessed as being inside. 

There are so many IR35 experts who post here, thanks all, I’ll come here for advice in future
 

lol

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17 minutes ago, EME said:

There are so many IR35 experts who post here, thanks all, I’ll come here for advice in future
 

lol

Your employer has already said they will put you inside ir35. You get one more year where you get to decide if you are inside or outside then your employer makes that choice for you.

You could be  getting £8-10k more this year, and a £100k tax bill next year. 

I know people who've got away with it for years. I've previously posted on here about my father in law whose managed to get away with being paid on a 9% tax loan scheme out of the IOM while working as a maths/chemistry teacher in a secondary school in Oxford. 

Its not a chance I'd be willing to take. Some get away with it, some don't. 

Edited by regprentice
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39 minutes ago, shortbread said:

TAQA going ahead with Ir35 changes despite hmrc postponement. Makes sense for the firm and they won't be the last. 

I suppose there is an incentive to bring people on as employees if the govt then covers 80% of their wages (though I'd imagine the 2.5k cap means it'll really only cover, say, a third of the cost of the average oiley. still I think that's enough of an incentive for most bean counters to make the jump) 

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EME be very careful to stay there as your employer would have done a CEST SDS (Status determination statement) and determined inside.

If HMRC gets hold of that and your limited company have self declared outside, it will be a blood bath for you - 20 year look back and taxes potentially.

 

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On 21/03/2020 at 20:52, delboypass said:

EME be very careful to stay there as your employer would have done a CEST SDS (Status determination statement) and determined inside.

If HMRC gets hold of that and your limited company have self declared outside, it will be a blood bath for you - 20 year look back and taxes potentially.

 

I hope they don’t go back 20 years because that would include all the unpaid tax from my paper round too!

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General consensus seems to be that the oil price will crash further later this year - Oil Price may fall to $10Oil Price Rebound won't last

This is going to make 2015 look like a minor bump in the road.

Meanwhile, good houses are still selling quickly - one we had an eye on out at Durris sold end last week after only being on the market for just over two weeks.

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HM Land Registry: House Price Index Scotland, Jan 2020

Aberdeen house prices keep falling, -5.2% !

 

Aberdeen city average prices

January'18: £163,270

January'19: £151,212

January'20: £143,365

Quote

Scotland house prices increased by 1.6% in the year to January 2020, down from 2.0% in the year to December 2019. Scotland house prices were growing faster than the UK annual rate of 1.3% in the year to January 2020.

In January 2020, the most expensive area to purchase a property was City of Edinburgh, where the average cost was £273,000. In contrast, the cheapest area to purchase a property was East Ayrshire, where the average cost was £98,000.

House prices increased over the last year in 23 out of 32 local authority areas. The largest growth (not including Orkney Islands) was in Scottish Borders, where prices increased by 10.8% in the year to January 2020 to £160,000. The biggest fall for the year ending January 2020 was recorded in City of Aberdeen where average prices fell over the year by 5.2% to £143,000.

 

 

619519363_Jan20fall.PNG.4a0b6831420eab503d68d508b449c7cb.PNG

Aberdeen city sales volumes

January'19: 372

January'20: 352

A dip in sales as well!

Quote

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for November 2018 with the provisional estimate for November 2019, volume transactions decreased by 1.5% in Scotland. UK volume transactions fell by 4.8% over the same period.

387409500_Jan20fallsales.PNG.9831492ca956eac8ed9c1ec7f34ca8f5.PNG

To get a clearer picture of the immediate impact the oil price crash and the epidemic has had on oil prices, we'll have to look at the data coming out in May and June, i.e if they are published at all!

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-january-2020/uk-house-price-index-scotland-january-2020

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Bilfinger among the first to announce job cuts........300 unallocated offshore personnel on furlough and serves notice to 95 employees!

 

Quote

Bilfinger Salamis terminates workers without option for government’s coronavirus support scheme

The Aberdeen-based offshore services firm has terminated workers on fixed-term contracts, according to a series of HR emails seen by Energy Voice.

Some onshore staff on probation periods have been handed their notice as well, also without the coronavirus support scheme.

Bilfinger Salamis said it had “no other option” but to serve notice to 95 employees on fixed contracts “who were allocated to projects which have been cancelled due to the low oil price”.

The firm also said it is “now contacting these employees” to offer them furlough where possible – a reverse from the earlier comments of an HR director who said they had “a number of employees” inquiring about whether the scheme applies, adding “at this time this is not the case”.

The company said it has placed “almost 300 unallocated offshore personnel on furlough”, while nearly 900 remain in work offshore in the UK.

However, emails to several separate workers by HR advisors state jobs have been cut because Bilfinger has “no further work available to retain our employees who are on a fixed-term contract”.

One offshore worker said: “I have never been so ill in my life through worry about what the near distant future will bring and feel let down by a company that had the power to stop all the uncertainty with the government help.

“Government pays 80% up to £2,500 so legally Bilfinger can just give us that, which is a lot more than what we will get off universal credit.”

Another, in an onshore office job on probation, said: “One of their core values is ‘We Care’ and I’ve never felt so abandoned in my life right now.”

Another fixed-contract offshore worker said “it’s disgusting, hanging so many of us out to dry”.

A spokesman for Bilfinger Salamis said: “Like every business affected by the dual challenges of the declining oil price and coronavirus pandemic, we’re having to make difficult decisions about staffing levels in a rapidly changing environment in which government policies and initiatives are being updated daily.

“In this instance, we’d already taken the decision to place almost 300 unallocated offshore personnel on furlough, but had unfortunately felt we had no other option but to serve notice to 95 employees on fixed term contracts who were allocated to projects which have been cancelled due to the low oil price.

‘NO WIGGLE ROOM’

It is understood that some other services firms have made similar decisions, which RMT regional organiser Jake Molloy described as “outrageous”.

He said: “I think it is inappropriate behaviour, I think it is wrong. Treating people like this will only have a detrimental effect when we come out the other side of it as well. People will be looking for work, but are you going to get that knowledge and experience back if you dump people like this?

“I think people will think twice about coming back if they are treated in this way.”

Mr Molloy said that, with firms making changes due to IR35 off-payroll working rules, it is possible that some are treating fixed-term workers with limited companies as self-employed who need to apply for funding themselves.

He added: “We’ve just come through one of the worst downturns ever. Every contractor is squeezed to the absolute maximum and they just have no wiggle room left so if they don’t act then the potential for going under quickly is very, very real."

https://www.energyvoice.com/coronavirus/231487/disgust-as-bilfinger-salamis-terminates-workers-without-option-for-governments-coronavirus-support-scheme/

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15 hours ago, shortbread said:

Bilfinger among the first to announce job cuts........300 unallocated offshore personnel on furlough and serves notice to 95 employees!

 

https://www.energyvoice.com/coronavirus/231487/disgust-as-bilfinger-salamis-terminates-workers-without-option-for-governments-coronavirus-support-scheme/

I see the optics of that decision caused a swift turnaround thanks to the "free" money from the government.  I suspect there are going to be a lot of these furloughs to come though unfortunately it is just delaying the inevitable considering the broader issues with the oil price.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/231778/bilfinger-salamis-praised-for-halting-job-lossesbis/

Quote

Energy Voice previously reported that Bilfinger had laid off 95 people on fixed-term contracts after projects dried up in the wake of the oil price collapse.

Unite said on Monday night that Bilfinger subsequently decided to “review the proposed redundancies” following an “intense period of discussion”.

The company has now agreed to “furlough” the workers so that they can benefit from a UK Government job retention scheme, which provides support with salary payments.

Unite regional officer Shauna Wright said: “We warmly welcome the decision by Bilfinger to furlough employees rather than pay them off.

“As a result of very constructive dialogue with Unite, the company has indicated their willingness to ensure their skilled workforce are retained and that employees and their families are not cast into penury during these very difficult times.”

“I can’t overstate the financial damage that would have been done to workers and their families had Bilfinger not reviewed their decision.

“I, personally, would like to commend Bilfinger for their actions in this situation and pay tribute their willingness to work constructively with Unite to find a solution that is equal to the extraordinary times which we are currently all living through.”

Bilfinger Salamis managing director Sandy Bonner said: “We have been liaising with the unions throughout this difficult period in order to minimise the impact on our workforce, and had already placed the majority of our unallocated workforce on furlough last week.

“Our intent is always to protect jobs where possible, and having received further clarity on the government’s furlough scheme, we are pleased to be able to extend this to others.”

 

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5 minutes ago, Ignorantbliss said:

 I suspect there are going to be a lot of these furloughs to come though unfortunately it is just delaying the inevitable considering the broader issues with the oil price.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/231778/bilfinger-salamis-praised-for-halting-job-lossesbis/

 

To be clear as the optics of that sentence was not good!  Unfortunate in the sense that the work is not likely to come back thanks to the oil price crash...

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Now Stork....

Quote

Stork sacks North Sea workers due to Covid-19 operational drop-off

An Aberdeen oil and gas contractor has sacked a number of North Sea workers due to a drop-off in demand related to the coronavirus outbreak. Dyce-based company Stork, owned by US multinational Fluor, sent redundancy notices to staff informing them the dismissal was due to a “reduced” North Sea requirement.

In the letter, seen by Energy Voice, Stork blamed the decision on a lack of “operational demand” resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. Stork confirmed in a statement it had taken the “difficult decision” to offload 58 staff.

A former Stork worker said: “We’ve asked if we can’t take unpaid leave until the UK Government scheme kicks in as it won’t cost the company anything, but they’ve chosen to pay guys off anyway. The company is claiming that they haven’t had any guidance from the government and they’ve just panicked and paid everyone off."

RMT regional organiser Jake Molloy said “lots” of North Sea contractors were serving redundancy notices workers.

He said contractors, like Stork, are having to “pick up the tab” previously covered by oil firms for the retention of crews on a standby arrangement. “Virtually any contractor you can think of is looking to offload workers. The contractors are already struggling and now they’ve got this added cost burden put on them by the oil companies. “

A Stork spokesperson said: “Similar to other organisations in our industry and around the globe, we are working hard to ensure full business continuity during this challenging time, where it is safe for our people to do so.

“As a business, we unfortunately had to make the difficult decision to release 58 of our offshore colleagues last week. Through a joint industry approach, as an OCA member company, we are working together with our partner trade unions to find a united solution.”

https://www.energyvoice.com/coronavirus/231709/stork-sacks-hundreds-of-north-sea-workers-due-to-covid-19-operational-drop-off/

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On 18/03/2020 at 20:20, EME said:

Don’t buy those shell shares yet folks!

RDSB £9.20 with a wee bit further to go I feel

Glad I’ve held off so far after being seriously tempted to go large last Friday 

Missed the boat?

£13.80 today

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  • 440 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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