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Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

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On 12/06/2019 at 17:06, quine said:

 

More made up nonsense, virtually no houses are selling let alone one at valuation in under a week, will lose another 90k in the next 5 years

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I am not making this up.

Try looking up a specific postcode on ASPC, scroll down until you see the first property that is under offer, look at the home report for the approximate date it was first listed, you will find it was listed not long ago.

Attractive family homes are getting viewers and selling fast for close to valuation. 

Had 7 viewers for mine, 2 notes of interest, 2 second viewings and an offer at valuation after 7 days.

The feedback I got from viewers was that my home was exceptionally nice and immaculate, I suspect that made a big difference.

 

 

 

 

 

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15 hours ago, shackleford said:

ASPC is at 6248 for sale today.  Exactly a year ago (I went back and checked) it reached 6000 for the first time.  

If you exclude under offer and sold properties there are only 5384 for sale

Work that one out lol

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1 hour ago, EME said:

If you exclude under offer and sold properties there are only 5384 for sale

Work that one out lol

With about 300 sales a month it would take 18 months to sell these, the crash is in free fall, although your made up sale figures defies everything else in the market, of course if you linked your amazing deal on the site people would believe you, but you simply can’t , awful when your lies are exposed 

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I’m not going to post a link to my house or the one i’ve just bought for obvious reasons.

I’m pleased to say it will be my forever home and I definitely couldn't have afforded it back in 2013 when I last bought.

What I will say is that a big house with a decent garden that’s been valued in last couple of months will sell at or very near to valuation in a short time. Look back a couple of pages to April when someone else was saying the same.

Why not go into any estate agent in Aberdeen / shire and have a chat?

They’re obliged to show you the info you can’t see on ASPC like number of days to sell, valuation, floor area and sale price if you’re friendly enough.

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My input anecdotally. Unbiased as I’m not buying or selling. Just some info from a seller and what I see.

Aberdeenshire to the north of Aberdeen. In a radius of 5 miles from me on the road I take to get to Aberdeen. 3 properties. One Aberdein Considine and 2 others Stewart Watson. Under offer or sold on the signs. One has land. 2 don’t.

One has been on the market ages, two came on and under offer/sold in about 1-2 months.

Friend who is selling. Small house. 6 acres with stables. On market 5 weeks  3 notes of interest and 2 offers. 

 

The the vast majority of houses on ASPC must be flats/apartments and other smaller houses? 

Anyone done the number crunching analysis?

 

 

Edited by sfr
Can’t spell

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BBC: Average house price rises by 2.2% in Scotland. Aberdeen falls 9%

Quote

Registers of Scotland found the average cost of a residential property rose by 2.2% to £178,991 in the 2018-19 financial year.

Overall the value of residential property sales reached £18.2bn, which was a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. Meanwhile, the volume of sales in Scotland was down slightly, at 101,628, in 2018-19.

The 2018-19 report also found:

  • There were 181 residential property sales for more than £1m, two-thirds of which were in the City of Edinburgh local authority area (119 sales).
  • 12% of residential property sales in Scotland were new-builds - the highest proportion since 2008-09.
  • 28% of all residential properties sold were located within one of Scotland's seven cities - with most sales in Glasgow.
  • 69% of residential sales transactions were with a mortgage, with cash sales accounting for the balance.
  • Midlothian had the largest increase in the average price over the previous financial year, rising by 8.1% to £220,011.
  • House prices in Aberdeen have been affected by the downturn of the oil industry, according to Registers of Scotland. Average prices in Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire have fallen by about 9% since 2014-15 to £196,511 and £212,501 respectively.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-48594589

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18 hours ago, sfr said:

The the vast majority of houses on ASPC must be flats/apartments and other smaller houses? 

There is oversupply in every category/type of house sold in Aberdeen. On ASPC there are 6275 houses for sale of which nearly 3000 are 3 beds or more.

But I agree with you, what makes the numbers look scarily enormous are the thousands of flats without tenants in Aberdeen. The local buy-to-let crash is fuelling the Aberdeen house price fall in my opinion. 

The slowest sellers in Aberdeen are flats, the current average is a YEAR! 'Average Time On Market' for flats is 354 days while other property types varies between 200-250 days. It's a similar picture when looking at 1-2 bed properties vis a vis the rest.

343625992_1timeinmkttype.PNG.3abe97b06d24f22a95a5f44e4d9442ed.PNG

412059736_1timeinmktbdrm.PNG.795667664740fa94418a332b19a61428.PNG

Oversupply is the problem in Aberdeen. Using the demand and supply science, there isn't demand in the city, especially with a shrinking population. Plenty of houses being put up for sale as expats leave the city or landlords trying to escape negative equity. Properties advertised have a seasonal nature, wherein they peak during Aug-Sep and taper off during winter. We're in June right now and there are 6275 for sale on ASPC, is 7000 now a possibility?

1072244644_1nos.inmkttype.PNG.6d452e0aa917ee54a65d97b4151b65dc.PNG

https://www.home.co.uk/guides/local_info.htm?location=aberdeen

Then there are the thousands of new-builds spotted all over, backed by Help to buy as well as multiple offers from builders looking to get rid of stock.

It looks like a great time to buy property in Aberdeen. Albeit the big question is how much longer will the fall continue? The strangest phenomenon is that the fall has now accelerated despite the oil price stabilising since 2016, and this is visible in the monthly house price index. For eg. as per HM Land Registry the Aberdeen city average house price changed -2% in March 18, but the fall accelerated to -7% in March 2019.

So there are more house being put up for sale and prices falling even further, despite the local economy stabilising over the past year and a half!

Edited by shortbread

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I think the reason the price is continuing to fall in Aberdeen is the property was incredibly over priced in the first place, fuelled  by the oil boom, whilst the oil has stabilised it’s not what it once was and is unlikely to ever be the same again, a lot of the one beds in Aberdeen were selling around the £30k-£40k mark just 15 years ago, it’s not unrealistic to believe that these flats could go down to that level again with the other houses quickly following

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1 hour ago, shortbread said:

ASPC pips 6300! I think this is the highest I have seen it.

619929468_aspc19_06.thumb.PNG.53c0c5adf89eb02caba51b6de8f145d5.PNG

 

Yeah defo a record as far as I am aware. Been keeping an eye on aspc for years now and I'm sure last years peak was just over 6000. 

I think EME (congrats on new home) has a point about nicer homes selling fast-ish but the numbers speak for themselves, the markets still knackard and I can't see it turning round anytime soon.

 

 

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I have noticed that at all levels of the market some places will fly off the shelf if the seller is sensible and flexible with their price.

Whereas something that looks beautiful spacious and in a nice location but is way over the odds will sit for months and years when it could have sold easily except the sellers won't admit that they're being greedy and prospective buyers probably won't even book a viewing because it's out of their affordability range.

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49 houses currently showing as sold between  £250k & £500k out of over 1000 houses for sale in this price range, no one can say that’s good, a few years ago there wasn’t even 1000 house for sale in the whole of Aberdeen at all price ranges 

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3 hours ago, stingray192 said:

49 houses currently showing as sold between  £250k & £500k out of over 1000 houses for sale in this price range, no one can say that’s good, a few years ago there wasn’t even 1000 house for sale in the whole of Aberdeen at all price ranges 

Yawn, change the record

220 in this same price range are under offer, including my new one and the one i’ve completed on :)

Very soon after they are marked as sold they disappear for good, how do I know? An estate agent with a special estate agent log in to ASPC was showing me the pages we can’t see.

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HM Land Registry, April'19 House Price Index: Aberdeen fall continues to accelerate!

The latest house price index in for April'19. The fall was -2.5% on the April'18 index, and has now climbed to -6.2% on the latest one. This is now a continuing trend, Will be interesting to track this and see where it ends up!

81404461_Apr19fall.PNG.dada31e455808a8bdada11952b86708d.PNG

852594046_Apr19fall3.PNG.315bee8fa0425f7c3417329022227c10.PNG

 

Apart from the house prices falling faster, another interesting fact that the new builds have been selling steadily while the existing properties have seen a fall in volumes!

1287877323_April19salesbytype.thumb.PNG.a4f16c69765d5988591913adfdbfb706.PNG

852581426_Apr19fall4.PNG.ffab1b12ec7d104863976b35225be7a4.PNG

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-april-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-april-2019

 

 

 

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On 6/14/2019 at 5:45 PM, shackleford said:

ASPC is at 6248 for sale today.  Exactly a year ago (I went back and checked) it reached 6000 for the first time.  

Do we know what the highest number ever listed on ASPC has been? Will we breach that this month? 

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20 hours ago, EME said:

Yawn, change the record

220 in this same price range are under offer, including my new one and the one i’ve completed on :)

Very soon after they are marked as sold they disappear for good, how do I know? An estate agent with a special estate agent log in to ASPC was showing me the pages we can’t see.

Yes the ones which both happened to have originally been on the market exactly five and a half years ago, sticking with the theme of this forum Houseprice crash we are now up to 6355 houses sitting on the market, there is only about 300 actual sales a month

there might be 220 houses under offer or sold in this price bracket but some of these will take several months to complete

 

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18 hours ago, stingray192 said:

Yes the ones which both happened to have originally been on the market exactly five and a half years ago, sticking with the theme of this forum Houseprice crash we are now up to 6355 houses sitting on the market, there is only about 300 actual sales a month

there might be 220 houses under offer or sold in this price bracket but some of these will take several months to complete

 

There are 220 under offer and 49 sold at the time of writing, 269 total, no might be, actual fact.

Normally takes 6-8 weeks to go from under offer to officially sold, not several months.

How about this though, many houses that go under offer sometimes have “sold” plastered across the sign immediately when they’re technically only under offer, mines have, work that one out lol

That one in Stonehaven is a belter, I know those flats well and would be a very nice place to have but I would say it is worth £3k per square meter in current climate, £200,000 would be generous. Let’s keep an eye on it :)

 

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5 hours ago, EME said:

There are 220 under offer and 49 sold at the time of writing, 269 total, no might be, actual fact.

Normally takes 6-8 weeks to go from under offer to officially sold, not several months.

How about this though, many houses that go under offer sometimes have “sold” plastered across the sign immediately when they’re technically only under offer, mines have, work that one out lol

That one in Stonehaven is a belter, I know those flats well and would be a very nice place to have but I would say it is worth £3k per square meter in current climate, £200,000 would be generous. Let’s keep an eye on it :)

 

The issue I have with the apartments at Stonehaven is the size, they have an absolutely breathtaking view, they have a decent spec, but they are really only the size of a holiday flat, based on the size I wouldn’t pay £150k. My biggest gripe with the majority of the the housing stock in Aberdeen is the size of it, I have always said there is to many extremely over priced small flats. This in turn has meant that family sized house are also very overpriced for the size and spec, when the oil was booming it wasn’t an issue for oil workers, however it was virtually impossible for a family not employed in oil to buy a home in Aberdeen. 

I also think it’s very hard to buy at the moment as the market is still very unpredictable, if your buying a home for a long period then it doesn’t really matter what you pay if your happy with the price and the house, it’s your home to do what you want with, I think if anyone is buying with a possible move in a few years time then they are mad as they will almost certainly lose money and have trouble selling, the best example of this is a friend moved from Brighton to Aberdeen about three years ago, they bought a fairly expensive house and spent a stupid amount of money on kitchens, bathroom and fittings, it was a stunning house, his  wife couldn’t settle so they decided to move back down less than a year later, the house took over a year to sell and they lost about £300k in a few years ( about £120k on the house,  the rest on the kitchen, bathrooms, sunroom, landscaping and fees) 

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2 hours ago, stingray192 said:

The issue I have with the apartments at Stonehaven is the size, they have an absolutely breathtaking view, they have a decent spec, but they are really only the size of a holiday flat, based on the size I wouldn’t pay £150k. ) 

I'm pretty confident I know that building and it was a holiday flat. The top floor of a beachfront B&B. The owners stayed in the flat while they ran the b and b. Not a problem for the top floor I suppose but bad problems there with flooding for the ground floor, seems like those b and b suites are being converted to flats to be sold.

Personally that's a stunning view and exactly the kind of retirement home id love to have. Here's hoping it drops 50% in value in the next 25 years before I actually get to retire....

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11 minutes ago, regprentice said:

I'm pretty confident I know that building and it was a holiday flat. The top floor of a beachfront B&B. The owners stayed in the flat while they ran the b and b. Not a problem for the top floor I suppose but bad problems there with flooding for the ground floor, seems like those b and b suites are being converted to flats to be sold.

Personally that's a stunning view and exactly the kind of retirement home id love to have. Here's hoping it drops 50% in value in the next 25 years before I actually get to retire....

Not sure if it’s the same one, the property I’m referring to is beachview apartments, stunning sea views, but the apartments are priced 240-260k and are only about 500 sq ft , it’s a development of six, the living dining and kitchen is only 17ftx12ft

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