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Mr. Gruff

Aberdeen, Aspc Stats

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10 minutes ago, dpg50000 said:

With all due respect, Spyguy, it seems you've been saying that forever. And it now looks like further U.S. rate rises aren't happening this year. In fact, with the expected recession, U.S. will probably end up lowering the in the next 18 months.

No. Ive been saying this since the Fed start raising rates - ~2 years ago.

And it still stands.

 

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On 25/03/2019 at 10:20, spyguy said:

And what happens when Carney goes?

Boe  has to catch up with Fed rates.

 

 

Plenty of ex-Goldman clowns like Carney who will sign up for a million a year job! The establishment will appoint someone who will keep advocating QE.

The fed is tightening but Carney wont irrespective of the damage it does. So be prepared by inflated asset prices, more liquidity, credit bubbles, falling pound and fudged inflation rates.

The UK housing bubble will pop at some stage, but it definitely wont be due to a rise in interest rates!

 

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There is now a decent looking one bedroom flat in a nice part of Rosemount on ASPC for under 400 quid a month.  Has the rental market pretty much collapsed?

(ASPC to buy 5639 to rent 708)

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3 minutes ago, shackleford said:

There is now a decent looking one bedroom flat in a nice part of Rosemount on ASPC for under 400 quid a month.  Has the rental market pretty much collapsed?

(ASPC to buy 5639 to rent 708)

The rental market is now mainly people on benefits, this will stop the rental prices going totally through the floor, only 6 years ago I was getting £995 for a two bed in bannermill, now I think £600 is the normal

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12 hours ago, shackleford said:

There is now a decent looking one bedroom flat in a nice part of Rosemount on ASPC for under 400 quid a month.  Has the rental market pretty much collapsed?

(ASPC to buy 5639 to rent 708)

Rents have crashed, 30% fall at the very least! The bigger challenge is finding tenants. Streets on rental hotspots like Rosemont spotted with plenty of To-let signboards.

Landlords with well maintained properties in nicer parts of town fare better. Otherwise it's either going empty or having to accept much lower rents rather than landlords having to foot the council tax themselves.

A major reason for the property price fall is because Aberdeen is no more the buy-to-let paradise of Scotland it once was. Those days are long gone. Poor rate of returns plus negative equity have seen such investments go sour for many.

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This was published in Nov'18.

Quote

Private Sector Rent Statistics, Scotland, 2010 to 2018


Main findings for average rent changes in the latest year (2017 to 2018)

  • 15 out of 18 areas of Scotland saw increases in average 2 bedroom private rent levels between 2017 and 2018 (years to end Sept), ranging from 6.5% in Lothian to 0.3% in Perth and Kinross.
  • From 2017 to 2018, all areas of Scotland, with the exception of Aberdeen and
    Shire, Greater Glasgow and Renfrewshire/Inverclyde, have seen increases in average rents for 2 bedroom properties. These have ranged from 0.3% in Perth and Kinross, up to 6.5% in Lothian
  •   Aberdeen and Shire saw a decrease of 4.1%, the fourth consecutive annual decrease, which is likely to reflect decreased demand for rental properties in recent years following the downturn in the oil industry.

781561114_Aberdeenrentfall.thumb.PNG.50d6a304f09c9f93dc28066552c7d664.PNG

 

That's a 1.7% rise in rent in 8 years! And it's only falling still....

 

https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/statistics-publication/2018/11/private-sector-rent-statistics-2010-2018/documents/00543368-pdf/00543368-pdf/govscot%3Adocument

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Citylets: Aberdeen Q4 2018 Rental index

Quote

Rents in Q4 2018 eased from their Q3 highs as is traditionally the case in the final quarter of the year. However all major urban markets, with the exception of Aberdeen, maintained their upward trajectory propelling the Scottish average up by a material 5% YOY. 

Landlords in Aberdeen may well be wondering when their market will fully level off with negative annual growth of 5.3% recorded in Q4 2018. Whilst this is understandable, the market moved consistently in the minus 3% to 6% range throughout the year representing stability in the rate of (negative) growth. Property to rent in Aberdeen currently averages £715 per month and takes 53 days to secure a tenant.

1804548110_AberdeenrentQ41.thumb.PNG.43adf2884c1717245bbdc511ad276f96.PNG

Aberdeen rents are now comfortable below Glasgow and the Scottish average. A major shift after being above both benchmarks for more than a decade. It's falling still and one will see a bigger gap going forward.

1603689582_AberdeenrentQ42.thumb.PNG.14eac7b2e951f8ac45517976e8f9c8d3.PNG

30% fall in rents over the last 5 years, can this be termed as a crash? -5.3% fall last year despite the 'stable' oil prices. If there are signs or recovery in Aberdeen, it certainly isnt coming from the rental scene.

1044431323_AberdeenrentQ43.thumb.PNG.a21536837580bdf08a8224c2e277355a.PNG

Single beds crawling slowly lower to the £400/month mark, one of the lowest in Scotland. That said there are currently 50 Aberdeen city apartments advertised for rent on ASPC in the £300-400 range.

641184890_AberdeenrentQ44.thumb.PNG.0b35b8159001105961e5c22f0e6cc20a.PNG

Average time to let in Aberdeen ranges form 1.5 to 2+ months in Aberdeen currently. Finding tenants remains a challenge.

https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/pdf/Citylets-Quarterly-Report-Q4-2018.pdf?ref=reports

 

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Rental market in the UK overall was steady in year to March, led by growth in Edinburgh

Quote

The average rent paid for a property in the UK now stands at £1,217, or £772 when London is excluded, according to the latest rental sector index to be published.

But there is considerable variation depending on location with London seeing annual rent growth of just 0.57% while in Edinburgh rents increased by 5.97%, by 4.28% in Nottingham and by 3.76% in Gwent.

Scotland is something of a tale of two cities, boasting both the fastest and slowest growing locations. Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire are at the bottom with rents down by 5.59% and 4.31% respectively. Of the other eight, a further one is in Scotland, Angus with a fall of 0.83%, while the other seven are in England.

 

https://www.propertywire.com/news/uk/rental-market-in-the-uk-overall-was-steady-in-year-to-march-led-by-growth-in-edinburgh/

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49 minutes ago, shortbread said:

ASPC moving from strength to strength, breaks another milestone.

More than 5,700 properties for sale now!

435044770_aspc10_04.PNG.767ed0948fe9759e368bef3e767b5109.PNG

April 5th last year ASPC was at 5421 and reached 5505 on the 17th of that month.

I'm sure the next ASPC report will be full of green shoots!

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Behind a paywall or would have made an interesting read.....

Quote

Property prices and sales crumble in Granite City

Aberdeen is home to some of the most unwanted properties in Britain.

The city’s fortunes have tumbled since 2016 in line with the decline of the oil and gas industries, and the housing market is among the sectors hit hardest.

A report by Springbok Properties, an estate agency, placed housebuyer appetite at 10 per cent, the lowest of 200 locations.


Shepherd Ncube, Springbok’s chief executive, highlighted the knock-on effects of businesses moving out of Aberdeen.

“A [drop] in employment opportunities and the migration of the local population have had a direct impact on the housing market and this severe lack of demand has also brought a correction in property values,” he said. 

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/property-prices-and-sales-crumble-in-granite-city-wwdglsd2g

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On 06/03/2019 at 13:31, Diver Dan said:

Doing my best to keep this dead thread alive!

January's Rightmove sold prices for Aberdeen are online now:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=scotland&locationIdentifier=REGION^4&searchLocation=Aberdeen

286 sales in January

ASPC currently at 5553 for sale and 657 for rent.

Citylets has 1247 for rent, of which 1029 are classed as flats.

February's Rightmove shows 222 sales in Aberdeen.

ASPC currently at 5710 for sale and 715 for rent.

Citylets has 1197 for rent, of which 1001 are classed as flats.

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Latest edition of the Aberdeenshire Council LDP 2021 Newsletter is out - link

Had a chuckle at this comment in the newsletter "Very little conversation took place on the overall scale of the housing numbers being sought, with the majority of attendees much more interested in the likelihood of development on a development bid site that was personal to them".  As ever Nimbyism rules!

ASPC is at 5711 just now but a difference I am definitely noticing this year is that good properties with a decent sized garden are going under offer quickly, even when the price looks pretty ripe - for example this one at £423k under offer after two weeks of listing.

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2 hours ago, Ignorantbliss said:

Latest edition of the Aberdeenshire Council LDP 2021 Newsletter is out - link

Had a chuckle at this comment in the newsletter "Very little conversation took place on the overall scale of the housing numbers being sought, with the majority of attendees much more interested in the likelihood of development on a development bid site that was personal to them".  As ever Nimbyism rules!

ASPC is at 5711 just now but a difference I am definitely noticing this year is that good properties with a decent sized garden are going under offer quickly, even when the price looks pretty ripe - for example this one at £423k under offer after two weeks of listing.

Yes, that’s a really nice house, might have been £500k+ a few years ago, Sauchen would be a too far out for me though.

I’m all set to upgrade my main residence now, putting my current home on the market in next couple of weeks, as you say there’s definitely a demand for newish, larger properties with decent sized gardens so I think prices are levelling out.

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https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2019

The Registers of Scotland House Price Report came out recently too.

Local authorities February 2019 February 2018 Difference
Aberdeenshire £180,862 £191,909 -5.8%
       
City of Aberdeen £149,435 £160,631 -7.0%
City of Dundee £118,337 £117,459 0.7%
City of Edinburgh £260,205 £250,962 3.7%
City of Glasgow £129,126 £126,515 2.1%
     
Scotland £145,762 £145,982 -0.2%

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1 hour ago, EME said:

Yes, that’s a really nice house, might have been £500k+ a few years ago, Sauchen would be a too far out for me though.

I’m all set to upgrade my main residence now, putting my current home on the market in next couple of weeks, as you say there’s definitely a demand for newish, larger properties with decent sized gardens so I think prices are levelling out.

I agree the larger properties are starting to move, a friend sold his house which had been on for nearly two years and moved to a bigger house,  (390k old house to 525k new house) the difference in price is £135,000 plus expenses a few years ago the upgrade would of been over £200,000 so it’s great for him, I think in Aberdeen the main problem is the vast amount of old run down 1 bed flats in the old tenements, I honestly don’t think very many of them are worth even half of the current asking prices 

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5 hours ago, stingray192 said:

I agree the larger properties are starting to move, a friend sold his house which had been on for nearly two years and moved to a bigger house,  (390k old house to 525k new house) the difference in price is £135,000 plus expenses a few years ago the upgrade would of been over £200,000 so it’s great for him, I think in Aberdeen the main problem is the vast amount of old run down 1 bed flats in the old tenements, I honestly don’t think very many of them are worth even half of the current asking prices 

That’s my thinking too, im not bothered if I “lose” £30k on the house I’m selling this summer because the house I’ll be buying is £100k+ cheaper than it was 4 years ago

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5 minutes ago, EME said:

That’s my thinking too, im not bothered if I “lose” £30k on the house I’m selling this summer because the house I’ll be buying is £100k+ cheaper than it was 4 years ago

Yes I follow the Aberdeen and the Northern Ireland threads, houses prices are just a figure, you normally win but lately you lose, it’s definitely the money you pay out between moves that counts, sometimes I’ve made a lot sometimes I’ve lost, overall I’ve won , I sold in Belfast made silly money in the boom then lost some in Aberdeen, that’s life, my sympathy is with couples who are hard working and have bought a one or two bed in the centre of Aberdeen and then the family comes along and they are all squashed into a 400 sq ft noisy flat with absolutely no hope of moving 

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17 hours ago, Diver Dan said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2019/uk-house-price-index-scotland-february-2019

The Registers of Scotland House Price Report came out recently too.

Local authorities February 2019 February 2018 Difference
Aberdeenshire £180,862 £191,909 -5.8%
       
City of Aberdeen £149,435 £160,631 -7.0%
City of Dundee £118,337 £117,459 0.7%
City of Edinburgh £260,205 £250,962 3.7%
City of Glasgow £129,126 £126,515 2.1%
       
Scotland £145,762 £145,982 -0.2%

What is surprising is that the Aberdeen price fall is beginning to gather pace! The downward movement of house values are steeper than last year which I find difficult to understand. A clearer picture will emerge when the population data is published. If the Aberdeen population decline continues it will be a worrying sign especially considering the new builds in the pipeline.

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Interestingly. I bought in Aberdeenshire in 2011. Needed a house with land for horses. When looking on the usual sites if I remember ASPC total was around 1500? And places with land was in the 110 mark.

with ASPC at 5711 today. By filtering on the word ‘acres’ yields 249 properties. And that includes some houses with postage stamps and or in street name with acres in the title.

so this has remained largely stagnant and the places with land, the good ones, in the shire are moving quite quickly.

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On 17/04/2019 at 23:49, stingray192 said:

Yes I follow the Aberdeen and the Northern Ireland threads, houses prices are just a figure, you normally win but lately you lose, it’s definitely the money you pay out between moves that counts, sometimes I’ve made a lot sometimes I’ve lost, overall I’ve won , I sold in Belfast made silly money in the boom then lost some in Aberdeen, that’s life, my sympathy is with couples who are hard working and have bought a one or two bed in the centre of Aberdeen and then the family comes along and they are all squashed into a 400 sq ft noisy flat with absolutely no hope of moving 

I don't have sympathy for those people... I'm in a hardworking couple with 2 kids... We carried on renting as prices too high. People who buy make their own choices, often assuming/betting that prices would rise further.

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6 hours ago, Sausage said:

I don't have sympathy for those people... I'm in a hardworking couple with 2 kids... We carried on renting as prices too high. People who buy make their own choices, often assuming/betting that prices would rise further.

A lot of people want the security of owning there own homes, a lot of couples start of in a one or two bed flat and then when family comes along they naturally need a bigger home, the hope being that you eventually own your home with no mortgage. Renting is a fools game, your rent increases over the tears and your living with other peoples choice of kitchens, bathrooms etc, with no real long term security, all your doing is paying someone elses mortgage :)

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3 hours ago, stingray192 said:

A lot of people want the security of owning there own homes, a lot of couples start of in a one or two bed flat and then when family comes along they naturally need a bigger home, the hope being that you eventually own your home with no mortgage. Renting is a fools game, your rent increases over the tears and your living with other peoples choice of kitchens, bathrooms etc, with no real long term security, all your doing is paying someone elses mortgage :)

You are correct Stingray in the case of 99% of UK renters, with rising house prices and rents.

But in Aberdeen where both house prices and rents are falling it's the exact opposite! 

One is either tied to Scenario 1) paying mortgage for a house whose value keeps going lower, thus stuck in negative equity; OR

Scenario 2) receiving low yield on rental properties and having to cough up the rest to cover the mortgage on top of falling property values OR worst of all

Scenario 3) owning an empty property with no yield and having to foot interest and council tax..... the case of thousands of Aberdeen properties!

What makes things more difficult is people who arrived in Aberdeen only to work n the O&G sector, now find themselves having to move elsewhere since the downturn but are stuck with an Aberdeen property they cannot get rid off. It's ok if one is Aberdonian, but what if an individual wants to leave the city? 'Security' is the last thing owning an Aberdeen property provides these people!

For renters in Aberdeen it's a buyers market. Plenty of choices out there and landlords ready to negotiate for long term tenants + the added security of the new Scottish private renting rules. Friend of mine who purchased a 2 bed BTL in Rosemount, did the place up and expected £800/month, then came down to £750....then £650..... now struggling to find a tenant for £500 and has the ACC on his case to pay the council tax. In his case Letting has become the fools game.

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So Chrysaor buying up Conoco Philips  North Sea assets and Ithaca the favorites to acquire Chevron's assets!

That's two big majors exiting in 1-2 years time! WIll be interesting to see how the consolidation of operations pan out.

Edited by shortbread

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  • 242 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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