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3 minutes ago, Houdini said:

Debt is not something you can remove its just a monthly noose / repayment that will eventually destroy them. When I mentioned labour it was on the basis that its a cost that can be reduced whilst few of the other things are reduceable....

Agreed, although some of those "made available" will be picked up by whichever company gets whatever work there is. A lot of the guys at these contractors were farmed out from oil companies when departments were outsourced in an efficiency drive, just like BP did with drilling, ah, better not go there..........................

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1 hour ago, shortbread said:

So the JWG - AFW merger finally gets the green light.....

JWG - AFW

Total - Maersk

SLI - AAM

Three major mergers that will aim for substantial cost savings, which might mean major job reductions in Aberdeen going into 2018! 

 

Be interesting to see who buys Amec's North Sea business. Last I heard there were some big American names interested.

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1 hour ago, shortbread said:

So the JWG - AFW merger finally gets the green light.....

JWG - AFW

Total - Maersk

SLI - AAM

Three major mergers that will aim for substantial cost savings, which might mean major job reductions in Aberdeen going into 2018! 

 

And the GE Baker Hughes merger. The BOD offices have a lot of empty desks and some folk I know are very likely to be pushed out by Christmas.

Of course this will have knock on effects and depress wages.

Best have a few months of wages tucked away to cover for the transition out of the patch.

Hunger games... Aberdeen edition.

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Short Story: Money from thin Air!

Long ago (say a few months back) not very far away there was an inefficient City Council that wanted to make more money. In this same city were car dealers who were struggling with their inventory piling up due to drastic fall in sales. So they got together and hatched a plan for both to help each other and make money at the same time.

So in June the Council thought it could be an early adopter of a scheme which could fine people driving older cars in certain 'zones', thus help improve air quality. 

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In unrelated news......

Drivers in Aberdeen could be forced to pay in low emission bid

The zones aim to deter high-emission vehicles from areas popular with pedestrians, and the consultation document asks whether local councils should achieve this through charges or penalties. It adds: “Zones across Europe typically adopt founding principles (including) vehicles that do not meet emission standards are allowed to enter but must pay a moderate daily charge, which is typically less than £20 per day.”

In June, Aberdeen City Council said it would volunteer to become an “early adaptor” for a zone. (yes 'adaptor', thats how they spelt it!)

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/drivers-could-be-forced-to-pay-in-low-emission-bid/

This will help everyone involved, the council will earn extra income, and the car dealers will get to shift stock and people fear that their cars are not worthy of being driven on the main street. Some of the Council's honchos were even able to buy nice zzerman cars with some hefty 'special' discounts! The plan is a very nice one, but people have to be convinced about this plan. The rich should be fine because they drive Range Rovers, the less rich aren't troubled because they drive relatively new zzerman cars (with special cheat devices) so they do not pollute as well. But what about people who drive regular cars or even worse older cars.

They need to be convinced, but how? Enter a dodgy consulting firm who operate for the 'good' of the environment. They do studies and reports for people who hire their services, albeit had a couple of name and ownership changes as per 'Cos. House'. But who would publish such a report. Well the City Council has a local press house bought up by offering them the top floor of their fancy new 'Mar!cshal Square' development. So they become the council's official mouth piece and start publishing reports convincing people that a random street with 2.6μg/m3 over the legal limit is very very BAD! (London is generally 50 - 80 μg/m3 over the limit!!).

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In more unrelated news......

Pollution above maximum limit on roads beside two Aberdeen schools

 

By analysing the latest government data, the charity found Walker Road Primary School and Hanover Street School were within the area of risk.

Hanover Street School is 72 metres from King Street, which has an air pollution rate of 42.7μg/m3 when the maximum legal limit is 40.

Walker Road School is 144m from Wellington Road, where the level of air pollution is recorded to be 44.0μg/m3.

Councillor Catriona MacKenzie said: “Torry is very concerned about the air quality in their area.

“We understand that it’s a sensitive issue and needs to be treated with the utmost urgency – especially if it involves children.

“With these figures I will ask the council to monitor the air levels around schools.

“I would also like to ask my constituents in Torry to report any HGV concerns they may have in regards to air pollution and if they have any suggestions of what can be done to ease congestion.”

ClientEarth has now launched a national campaign to protect children from dirty air called Poisoned Playgrounds.

Councillor Sandra Macdonald said: “I’m concerned and will be asking questions to council officers if there’s anything we can do to alleviate congestion.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/list-shows-pollution-above-maximum-limit-on-roads-beside-pair-of-city-schools/

Part 2 to follow!

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New figures show average house price in Scotland almost £150k

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Average house prices in Scotland have continued to rise, reaching £149,185 in July, an increase of almost 5 per cent from the previous year. The latest figures from the UK house price index (UK HPI) showed average July prices were also up 2.8 per cent on the previous month.

This compares to a UK average of £226,185, an increase of 5.1 per cent on the previous year. Edinburgh saw the biggest increase in average prices over the past year, with the Capital rising almost 10 per cent to £243,920 last month.

 In contrast, Aberdeen witnessed the biggest fall, down 7.7 per cent to £166,836.

£17k difference between Aberdeen and the Scottish average house prices. Pretty sure it will catch up in a years time!

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From NYT article:

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/13/realestate/house-hunting-in-aberdeen-scotland.html

When the international oil and gas industry declined near the end of 2014, it had a dramatic effect on Aberdeen’s economy, which is heavily dependent on the energy sector, agents said. Sales plummeted and prices of most homes dropped at least 20 percent, said Robin Leith, a partner of Andersonbain, a real estate company in Scotland.

Before 2014, sales had been robust and prices were rising 10 to 30 percent a year, agents said. There was often competition for homes, which sometimes sold for 10 to 15 percent over the asking price, Mr. Leith said. “Now there are more sellers than buyers,” he added, “and prices are typically between 5 percent and 15 percent lower than valuations.”

Edited by cashinmattress
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On 4/14/2017 at 2:29 PM, delboypass said:

Exactly - and its a 1970s or 60 building with lathe and plaster .. any refub would be a nightmare and in these properties all the roofs are now failing and need full replacements.. you will see it throughout the city with scaffolding up.

Semi detached..the only thing going for it is internal floor space..

The bust will come soon.. just need interest rates to rise to stop inflation!

 

Lunchtime news Thursday 14th- hint rates rise December!:rolleyes:

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39 minutes ago, shortbread said:

It's just a hint..snip----------------

I  must stop watching telly then-waiting with interest on part 2.Lots of sales and under offer in Torry despite pollution,hopefully the healthy breeze will blow the incinerator emissions away from Tullos Primary and Altens nursery.Huge increase in HGV to bring in the waste to east Tullos.

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24 minutes ago, stairlift needed said:

I  must stop watching telly then-

The reason I say this is rate rise predictions have been going on for months now. Back in June, three of the BoE officials called for a rate hike somehow today we hear 'Members of the Bank's nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep interest rates on hold at 0.25%.'! So apart from the rhetoric there is very little credible evidence. A rate hike is desperately needed but Carney and team are too scared to do it.

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Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, predicts that the BoE will be pleased to see the market reaction to today’s announcement. But she suspects interest rates won’t rise until mid-2018.

“Many will understandably now think that a rate rise in imminent, but in fact our view is that it is more likely to be next summer. This is because the MPC is still dominated by doves, such as Mark Carney, who are concerned about the impact higher rates could have on real wages so dependent on consumer spending.

“Of course, the risks could change, particularly if sterling were to devalue further, but for now the Bank’s rhetoric appears to have done its job.”

Carney got what he wanted, a pound spike which will give some short term relief, pretty sure there will be more 'rate hike - coming soon' announcements before markets start calling the bluff. By then the press will be forced to send out more 'economy is fragile' announcements and the rates will continue to stay where they are.

 

Quote

-waiting with interest on part 2

Lets see what the council cooks up in November!

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Off topic....

Carney is the perfect stooge for the London financial sector. His primary role is to simply find excuses as to 'why not to raise interest rates.'

Quote

Is the Bank of England running out of rhetorical firepower on interest rates?

 

Mark Carney was accused of being an “unreliable boyfriend” by Pat McFadden MP back in 2014.

At the time the criticism was levelled at the Bank of England’s shifting guidance. It had suggested that interest rates could rise in 2014.  And then 2015. And then 2016.

And yet rates hikes came there none. In fact, interest rates are now lower than ever.

So, how should we take the latest hints that rates could rise this year? Is the Governor serious, or is something more complicated going on?

Some analysts have suggested that the Bank is trying to persuade the markets the rates will rise to boost the pound, which will help reduce inflation and thereby negate the need for a rate rise.

It's quite a complicated - and circular - game. And the key to its success is the extent to which the market feels it can trust the Bank's guidance. 

The trouble is, the markets have been let down several times in the past.

In 2013 Carney arrived in Britain and said he would consider raising rates when unemployment fell to below 7pc. He thought it would take three years, but in fact it took only six months. Unemployment is now just 4.3pc, but rates are lower than they were four years ago.

In October 2015, the Governor told households that the Bank was  "focussed… [on] raising interest rates" and that they should prepare for higher borrowing costs, though he noted this was a "possibility not a certainty".

Three months later he ruled it out, saying inflation was lower than expected and so there was no need to tighten policy.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/09/14/bank-england-running-rhetorical-firepower-interest-rates/

Their bluff will be found out, but by then Carney's tenure will be over and some other stooge will take the hot-seat!

 

Edited by shortbread
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On 03/08/2017 at 12:11 PM, quine said:

Oakhill Grange is having its problems

79 can't sell for £320k (what a surprise)

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/353551/79-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/

 

so they're trying to rent at £1150 pcm

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/358395/79-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/

 

and

51 Jura House was under offer but no longer.

No longer under offer
 
 a property that you have saved in your wishlist has been updated, please see the new details below.
 
ASPC ref. 356471
 
51 Jura House, Oakhill Grange, AB15 5EA
 

Aberdeen

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/356471/51-Jura-House---Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/

 

 

Race to the bottom going on rental wise at Oakhill Grange.  79 (purchased for 400k) not selling.  Now for rental at circa 1050.00

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/358395/79-Oakhill-Grange/Aberdeen/

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This is one of my favourite overpriced properties

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/328563/141-Queens-Road/Aberdeen/

 

141 Queens Road "OCCUPYING A DESIRABLE POSITION WITIHIN A QUALITY WEST END DEVELOPMENT BY STEWART MILNE HOMES."  (who knew there was such a thing!)

Fixed price £375.  This is a £200k (at maximum) little bungalow, with no privacy, in an ugly Stewart Milne development.

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6 minutes ago, quine said:

This is one of my favourite overpriced properties

https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/328563/141-Queens-Road/Aberdeen/

 

141 Queens Road "OCCUPYING A DESIRABLE POSITION WITIHIN A QUALITY WEST END DEVELOPMENT BY STEWART MILNE HOMES."  (who knew there was such a thing!)

Fixed price £375.  This is a £200k (at maximum) little bungalow, with no privacy, in an ugly Stewart Milne development.

Almost £4k/m2, that's twice the Aberdeen average!

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All these homes your showing seriously lack any character, the grounds all done to standard with nothing personalised, lawn with a few common shrubs around it, Pathways the standard. very bland and boring, most likely like the people that live in these places.

 

 

Anyhow aberdeen is finished simply because drilling/building/producing/payback is a very long term thing.   so say its drilled, then assesed to be viable this will be based on projected pay nack over quite a number of years, also might take,  infact will take at least 5 years just to get from drill to appraisal to first production. the well will then need to produce over a long period of time before investment payback. and well oil just aint got this time. the world is moving away from oil and once so much energy is efficient electric etc the demand curve will be strongly on the downside just like the price and as we know NSO is an expensive commodity to get out and the payback to long to be of use. So whats for aberdeen? if anyone really cares about the place they will be positioning that vast amount of highly qualified and capable enginnering talent into completely new sectors. im 50/50 if this will happen. it could, engineers with idle hands will look at ways to do other stuff, or it will be a mass flight onto new places.

same thing has happened to many places dundee, liverpool, greater manchester, clydebank, dumbarton, corby, the welsh valleys, and you just need a quick look at the house prices in the past in these places to see what lies ahead, albiet a few of these places have hit rock bottom and are on the up. 

 

 

 

 

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I pretty much agree with most of what you say (unfortunately). Aberdeen becoming a long term hub for global oil technology simply won't happen to the extent that recent articles have suggested. After all the central belt of Scotland didn't become the centre of excellence for coal mining after the  industry wound down. As regards the average lead time between exploration drilling and initial production I seem to recall that this was recently quoted as being 17 years.

Edited by Oily
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56 minutes ago, Oily said:

I pretty much agree with most of what you say (unfortunately). Aberdeen becoming a long term hub for global oil technology simply won't happen to the extent that recent articles have suggested. After all the central belt of Scotland didn't become the centre of excellence for coal mining after the  industry wound down. As regards the average lead time between exploration drilling and initial production I seem to recall that over this was recently quoted as being 17 years.

Yes indeed. Especially with headlines like '10-ish years left' in the local oily news. Rather a large deterrent against future investment.

The technology, while it has been good for the region during its development, is now mature and does not require a large hub at the ar$e end of the UK... with very high rates and operating costs.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/150996/north-seas-last-decade-production-scientist-says/

https://www.oilandgaspeople.com/news/15144/uks-oil-and-gas-reserves-could-last-only-ten-years/

Edited by cashinmattress
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On 9/20/2017 at 3:59 PM, shortbread said:

Almost £4k/m2, that's twice the Aberdeen average!

I dont understand how valuations can come so high? This is crazy. 

 

Many people with whom I have spoken think that everything is getting back to normal. I dont agree. Spoke to few guys who work as contractors in oil companies and they tell me its getting better. 

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