cashinmattress Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 53 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said: I am an exploration geologist The North Sea has some of the highest value per barrel prospects/discoveries in the world. obviously reserve numbers are on a downwards trajectory. That won’t change. but the value is there. How much work are you getting when i can count more fingers on my hands than exploration wells in the basin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onlooker Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 7 hours ago, SOLZHENITSYN said: I am an exploration geologist The North Sea has some of the highest value per barrel prospects/discoveries in the world. obviously reserve numbers are on a downwards trajectory. That won’t change. but the value is there. Define highest value per barrel. Does that consider risk? The tax regime of the North Sea is very attractive but if the risks are high (and they are now for finding largish reserves), explorers will go elsewhere. Lot of people looking at Lancaster to see if it is a big success or a big flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 9 hours ago, SOLZHENITSYN said: The North Sea has some of the highest value per barrel prospects/discoveries in the world. Not now, the biggest issue is the time it takes to see returns. Deep sea is perhaps among the most expensive and most time consuming method for any O&G investor. Another issue in the UK North Sea belt is inefficiency and growing labour revolt. On 16/10/2018 at 19:01, SOLZHENITSYN said: Statoil, Exxon, BP, Shell, Total - all shown renewed interest in the basin recently. The ones heavily invested in the North Sea have to make best of what they have. The players who can afford to exit the North Sea are already making moves....Chevron, Marathon, MOL, AP Moller Maersk, Conoco etc... They are all selling to private equity who are buying up existing assets/projects. I might be wrong but none of this sounds long-term to me. So all this in relation to Aberdeen property, how safe is it to invest in a 20-30 year mortgage at existing prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 19 hours ago, shortbread said: HM Land Registry, Aug House Price Index Aberdeen fall continues, -4% Average price change Sales Volumes The sliding sales volumes is a big worry across Scotland. While the shortage of supply is a valid excuse elsewhere, Aberdeen is a different story altogether with plenty of surplus stock. Now picked up by the media..... Quote BBC: All but four of Scotland's 32 local authorities recorded year-on-year average price increases in August. The biggest increases were recorded in West Dunbartonshire, where prices rose by 11.9% to nearly £110,867, and Inverclyde, which saw prices increase by 9.8% to £112,550. The largest falls were in City of Aberdeen (down by 4% to just over £161,000) Aberdeenshire (down by 2.5% to £188,426) and Scottish Borders (down by 2.5% to £152,576). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-45888873 Quote Daily Mail: The average price of a property in Scotland has risen more this year than in the rest of the UK. The latest publication of the monthly UK House Price Index shows the average price of a property in Scotland in August 2018 was £153,309 – an increase of 4.1% on August 2017. This compares to a UK average of £232,797, which saw an increase of 3.2% over the same period. The biggest price increases were in West Dunbartonshire (11.9% to £110,867), Inverclyde (9.8% to £112,550) and City of Glasgow (8.9% to £136,353). Decreases were recorded in City of Aberdeen (4.0% to £161,063), Aberdeenshire (2.5% to £188,426), Scottish Borders (2.5% to £152,576) and East Ayrshire (1.7% to £97,696). https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-6286141/Average-house-prices-Scotland-rise-higher-rest-UK.html Even the local EE could not put a positive spin on this one.... Quote EE: The average price of a property in Scotland has risen more this year than in the rest of the UK. The latest publication of the monthly UK House Price Index shows the average price of a property in Scotland in August 2018 was £153,309 – an increase of 4.1% on August 2017. This compares to a UK average of £232,797, which saw an increase of 3.2% over the same period. Decreases were recorded in City of Aberdeen (4.0% to £161,063), Aberdeenshire (2.5% to £188,426), Scottish Borders (2.5% to £152,576) and East Ayrshire (1.7% to £97,696). https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/news/scotland/average-house-prices-in-scotland-rise-higher-than-rest-of-uk/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOLZHENITSYN Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 8 hours ago, cashinmattress said: How much work are you getting when i can count more fingers on my hands than exploration wells in the basin? Lots. Full time. drilling now as it happens ?? Plus licensing rounds, production acquisition, farmouts etc very busy time for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Nothing particularly note worthy on the news below but the inclusion of 4-5 bedroom houses shows increased confidence that more expensive homes will be more likely to sell in the current climate.... https://www.stewartmilnehomes.com/new-homes/neighbourhoods/jubilee-walk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stingray192 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 3 hours ago, CGS said: Nothing particularly note worthy on the news below but the inclusion of 4-5 bedroom houses shows increased confidence that more expensive homes will be more likely to sell in the current climate.... https://www.stewartmilnehomes.com/new-homes/neighbourhoods/jubilee-walk A friend has been trying to sell his house all year, paid £474,000 in 2014, has since spent a stupid amount of money on kitchens bathrooms and shower rooms, the house is fitted out to ridiculously high standards, , it’s on for Lesa than £400k it’s in a great area and he has had 2 viewings since March this year, I assume your in the same position the way your trying to talk the market up, I think aberdeen will continue to fall until it’s much cheaper than Glasgow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EME Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 3 hours ago, stingray192 said: A friend has been trying to sell his house all year, paid £474,000 in 2014, has since spent a stupid amount of money on kitchens bathrooms and shower rooms, the house is fitted out to ridiculously high standards, , it’s on for Lesa than £400k it’s in a great area and he has had 2 viewings since March this year, I assume your in the same position the way your trying to talk the market up, I think aberdeen will continue to fall until it’s much cheaper than Glasgow Link to the house please, I’m looking for a bigger house Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 8 hours ago, stingray192 said: A friend has been trying to sell his house all year, paid £474,000 in 2014, has since spent a stupid amount of money on kitchens bathrooms and shower rooms, the house is fitted out to ridiculously high standards, , it’s on for Lesa than £400k it’s in a great area and he has had 2 viewings since March this year, I assume your in the same position the way your trying to talk the market up, I think aberdeen will continue to fall until it’s much cheaper than Glasgow Sorry to disappoint but nowt' to sell here. I'm not talking up the market either ; merely sharing some useful information for all stakeholders. Developers test the water and the local economy with their respective phasing of houses. They normally won't risk building houses at the mid/ higher end of the scale until they feel the climate is right ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 14 hours ago, CGS said: Developers test the water and the local economy with their respective phasing of houses. They normally won't risk building houses at the mid/ higher end of the scale until they feel the climate is right ... Hi CGS, agreed a lot of new builds coming up, but any empirical evidence that developers are piling up stock based on 'tested' local economy knowledge? Most of these projects were sanctioned during the good old days when Aberdeen saw 2 digit % rises in house prices and ASPC sat on around 800 odd houses. Things have turned around and the market has lost a third of its value! Plus with the fat margins they sit on and the spread of their development portfolio across regions (Aberdeen is the only city with big house price declines, big profits elsewhere), their 'risk' is literally 'zero' risk at all. With the money UK builders are making at the moment, unsold/discounted Aberdeen stock is not really a problem. Because, if they really did 'test the water and the local economy', a 500% rise in houses for sale is a message that should have hit them on their heads real hard........500% rise in houses for sale! https://www.home.co.uk/guides/asking_prices_report.htm?county=aberdeen&startmonth=01&startyear=2014&endmonth=09&endyear=2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 2 hours ago, shortbread said: any empirical evidence that developers are piling up stock based on 'tested' local economy knowledge? The 'housing crash' must have been 'tested' as well then... to that end and this claim surely that could have been forecast as well? 'Tested local economy' is the price of oil and quantity of it, nothing more. Anybody who claims otherwise is looking to sell you something.... trying to bamboozle you. Economic health of one horse town inextricably linked to the one horse that supports it. That 'empirical evidence' statement is bvlls1t by the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 No firm evidence to share - if anything I learn from posts in here. On this occasion, I do happen to know that certain developers have held off building larger homes until now. It seems fair to state the following on this basis - 1. The local economy is looking more promising (certainly in the eyes of developers) 2. The demand for these new houses needs to exist or they would not build them. Risk is reduced by phasing.... 3. Banks are still willing to lend to the mortgage applicants who are buying the new builds - they in turn will be monitoring risk & the long term prospects for Aberdeen. Barrat only sanctioned their Countesswells homes recently...... https://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/article/barratt-homes-signs-deal-to-deliver-128-homes-at-countesswells Drove past this development recently at Forrit Brae https://www.cala.co.uk/homes-for-sale/north-of-scotland/craibstone-estate (seems a slightly odd location) Was also taken aback’ when I noticed building here near the Banks o Dee gym. https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/work-could-start-on-homes-in-september/ (an old news article purely for reference as it looks like they have started building) These new homes will undoubtedly put pressure on the local market. I remain baffled as to how the demand is still so rampant. One could argue that people would rather have a new, more efficient home than pick from the local stock of 5000+ ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 14 hours ago, CGS said: 1. The local economy is looking more promising (certainly in the eyes of developers) 2. The demand for these new houses needs to exist or they would not build them. Risk is reduced by phasing.... I remain baffled as to how the demand is still so rampant. Incorrect Sales volumes are falling, fell nearly 10% YoY as per the HM Land Registry Aug'18 figures. Considering the Oil prices picked up from Mar'16 onward, here are the sales figures for Aberdeen city. Also using this reasoning shouldn't the builders have predicted the local property crash in 2014 and the city see a slow-down in new builds. That did not happen. Mar-16: 468 Mar-17: 392 Mar-18: 356......that is a 24% fall in sales volumes over 2 years! Quote These new homes will undoubtedly put pressure on the local market. I concur Quote I remain baffled as to how the demand is still so rampant. One could argue that people would rather have a new, more efficient home than pick from the local stock of 5000+ ? Partially correct, interesting observation nonetheless. Here is a split of new to old property sales for the same month, March: Mar-16: 468, 53 new build sales Mar-17: 392, 59 new build sales Mar-18: 356, 69 new build sales, there is a noticeable growth. Perhaps this can be attributed to factors like Help to buy and discounting/offers by builders. The local radio stations is inundated with these ads! But the reason I say 'partially' correct is because, as seen above: 1) The average for a whole year shows only a 'slow' growth in the share of new-build sales in comparison to total sales. 2) There has been no significant increase that justifies the massive increase in properties being built. The annual sales of new builds in Aberdeen are as follows: 2015 - 675 units 2016 - 568 units 2017 - 544 units So considering an average of 550 new build sales every year in Aberdeen, how long will it take for all this stock to be sold, before even taking into account all the upcoming new-builds?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Hi Shortbread, That's a good read and very interesting to understand the ratios around existing homes versus new builds. Help to Buy undoubtedly an core factor. The last row is also intriguing if it only constitutes the first 6 months of the year ? On that projection, I wonder if it would breach the 2014 high of 447 (doubt it...). Regardless, purchases are vastly outweighed by stock as you suggest. Would like to understand more about the developers business model. Like you say, heavy discounting and trade in's have likely fuelled sales. I still disagree on the phasing element. It's common place to using phasing after seeing how quickly (or otherwise) an initial phase sells. Here's a prime example of more expensive houses selling (up to £700k) and the developers bringing on the next/final stage (post crash) https://www.beattiegroup.com/work-plus/client-releases/high-demand-sees-final-milltimber-grange-phase-released-early/ and also here https://www.scottishconstructionnow.com/article/cala-eyes-more-north-east-sites-as-new-phase-at-milltimber-gets-green-light “Sales have been so strong at our Oldfold Village development in Milltimber, with 45 sales since February 2016, that we lodged a planning application for a second phase at this site earlier than anticipated. In addition, our two new developments in Bridge of Don drew 14 sales off plan before the launch, which is especially encouraging in a recovering market.” Not saying that new builds are flying off the shelf. Purely demonstrating that developers confidence seems higher of late. ---------------- As aside, not sure if this URL has been shared as yet ? https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/media/23267/aberdeenshires-housing-market-2018.pdf (essentially suggests that new builds inflates average house prices in some areas - I see the opposite at times ; i.e local saturation forces prices of existing homes south as they have to "compete" with the new builds And also some stats on Population https://www.aberdeenshire.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/statistics/population/ --------------- This won't help the 2 bed flat market either... https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/plans-to-demolish-aberdeen-care-home-to-make-way-for-new-homes/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGS Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 I wonder how long this will take to shift and how stringent the requisite planning permission will be ? https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/373221/Drydykes---Baillieswells-Road/Aberdeen/ "Planning and Development No specific enquiry has been made to Aberdeen City Council’s Planning Department however it is believed that permission could be granted for up to two new dwellinghouses on the site to replace the existing dwellinghouses which would require to be demolished. The purchaser would have to make their own enquiries regarding any permissions and consents required regarding redevelopment." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EME Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Imagine how many houses could be squeezed into 20 acres there. Posh part of outskirts of town. That's a bargain for the right buyer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 The ASPC report for Q3 2018 is out now: https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/1629/third-quarter-2018.pdf ASPC currently has 6060 properties for sale and 680 for rent. Citylets has 1271 for rent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 3 hours ago, Diver Dan said: The ASPC report for Q3 2018 is out now: https://www.aspc.co.uk/media/1629/third-quarter-2018.pdf ASPC currently has 6060 properties for sale and 680 for rent. Citylets has 1271 for rent. Kind of predictable though... Quote • From 2017 to 2025, decommissioning is forecast to take place on 349 fields across the four regions of the North Sea: • Six fields on the Danish Continental Shelf • 23 fields on the Norwegian Continental Shelf • 106 fields on the Dutch Continental Shelf • 214 fields on the UKCS And across these regions, the infrastructure scheduled for decommissioning includes: • Over 200 platforms are forecast for complete or partial removal • Close to 2,500 wells are expected to be plugged and abandoned • Nearly 7,800 kilometres of pipeline are forecast to be decommissioned Every single one of these will permanently remove people from their employment... growing to the pool of manpower... an already massive one. Talk to any recruiter. There is no money in DECOM. It's a clean up and salvage job, a net loser to the operator/owner. We're probably not far off seeing gov.uk approving some kind of half-baked abandonment scheme versus clean up... leaving jackets an possibly even topsides as it's such a massive loser for all stakeholders. Let's see how Brexit let's our governments start altering their environmental commitments as we unwind from the EU. I can't see any upsides from my view in renewables just now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diver Dan Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 Citylets Q3 is out with similar drops in rent compared with the ASPC's sales price drops: https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/property-rental-report-scotland-2018-q3/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted November 1, 2018 Share Posted November 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Diver Dan said: Citylets Q3 is out with similar drops in rent compared with the ASPC's sales price drops: https://www.citylets.co.uk/research/reports/property-rental-report-scotland-2018-q3/ So the Scotland average, Edinburgh and Glasgow rents have overtaken Aberdeen! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 I used to think with the low population Aberdeen has, per capita this must be among the richest councils in UK! Well I was terribly wrong..... Quote Finance chiefs urge Aberdeen council to stop spending Finance bosses have urged the city council to stop spending “wherever possible” in a bid to tackle cost pressures. Aberdeen City Council – which is the lowest funded local authority in Scotland – is undergoing a restructuring programme with the aim of saving £125 million over five years. The council is facing a small overspend of £0.8m. Councillor Douglas Lumsden, convener of the city growth and finance committee, said: “The quarter two financial performance report highlights the performance to date is a positive one with net expenditure largely in line with budget for this stage of the year. “As the lowest-funded council in Scotland, it is getting harder and harder each year to balance our books.” A total of 370 posts will go through job transfers and not recruiting for vacant roles, as well as offering voluntary redundancies and early retirement. At the end of the second quarter, the council has achieved savings of £13.7m of an £18.1m target, with £9.9m made by cutting 330 posts. It added a continuation of posts reduction through this means was “unsustainable”. The council will now need to look at “other means” of managing the workforce including the upskilling of the roles of existing staff. Tommy Campbell, Unite regional officer, said: “The cost they should be considering is the cost this is having on the remaining workforce who are burdened with the work that has to be done. “The workload has not reduced even though the workforce has.” A Scottish Government spokesman said: “Despite continued UK Government real terms cuts to Scotland’s resource budget, we have treated local government very fairly. “Aberdeen City Council will receive over £354m of Scottish Government funding in 2018-19. “Taken together with the decision to increase council tax by 3%, Aberdeen City Council will have an additional £9.7m to support day-to-day services compared to 2017-18.” The report will be considered by members of the city growth and resources committee when they meet tomorrow. https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/finance-chiefs-urge-aberdeen-council-to-stop-spending/ Don't know where the money is going, Aberdeen easily has among the worst roads in the UK! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted November 2, 2018 Share Posted November 2, 2018 3 hours ago, shortbread said: I used to think with the low population Aberdeen has, per capita this must be among the richest councils in UK! Well I was terribly wrong..... https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/finance-chiefs-urge-aberdeen-council-to-stop-spending/ Don't know where the money is going, Aberdeen easily has among the worst roads in the UK! Odd they don't mention the £370m bond issue. https://news.aberdeencity.gov.uk/aberdeen-city-council-launches-and-prices-a-bond-issue-of-370m/ Yes. This council reeks of corruption. How many pals (good ol' boys) are getting fistfuls of taxpayer money? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Hometrack Sep'18 House Price Index: Aberdeen fall accelerates Aberdeen falls -4.4% YoY compared to -1.3% the previous year. Some interesting numbers: Average House prices Glasgow Sep'16: £113,500 Sep'18: £122,800 (8.2% RISE) Average House prices Aberdeen: Sep'16: £181,300 Sep'18: £163,300 (10% FALL) https://www.hometrack.com/uk/insight/uk-cities-house-price-index/september-2018-cities-index/?utm_source=Hometrack+Newsletters&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=917037b41b-cities-index-sept&utm_term=0_71d79157a3-917037b41b-88624049 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shortbread Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Anyone know what's the story behind properties for sale like this? 5 bed in Altens for 199k with and end date! https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/364544/28-Loirston-Avenue/Aberdeen/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 23 minutes ago, shortbread said: Anyone know what's the story behind properties for sale like this? 5 bed in Altens for 199k with and end date! https://www.aspc.co.uk/search/property/364544/28-Loirston-Avenue/Aberdeen/ ROS: 28 Loirston Avenue, Cove Bay, Aberdeen, AB123HE 10-03-2006 £167,500.00 Distressed sale? Somebody is getting out while they can? But if it was an investment... they did OK or just about broke over even... ~1.45% compounded over 12 years... less all the other costs of borrowing, maintenance, etc... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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