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When Is A Spring Bounce Not A Spring Bounce?


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Many of us here at HPC believe the fabled spring bounce will not happen this coming spring. But all the VI's are repeating the mantra "spring bounce is coming, spring bounce is coming". Both cannot be right.

At what point will anyone be able to objectively say either "OK there was no serious spring bounce after all" or "Ok I admit, buyers did come back to the market and a serious bounce occurred"? To qualify a "bounce", I'd guess there would need to be some sort of scale (e.g. number of houses actually being sold, number of sales compared to this time last year etc.). What is the level of the bar for being a spring bounce, and by what time can we say "this level was achieved/missed"

I for one will be satisfied that a bounce wont have happened if there are not multiples (e.g. 3x, 4x) the number of properties being sold by the end of March than there are now. Is that pessimistic or optimistic from a bearish POV?

Anyway, if a significant bounce does happen anyway, hand-on-heart, I'll be asking Kirsty for some nice hat recipies, though if there isnt a bounce, I doubt the VI's will ever really admit defeat on this one.

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I for one will be satisfied that a bounce wont have happened if there are not multiples (e.g. 3x, 4x) the number of properties being sold by the end of March than there are now. Is that pessimistic or optimistic from a bearish POV?

They will be able to state a spring bounce has happened as 3x or 4x nothing is still nothing. So effectively when they sell nothing in spring it will probably be reported that the market is steady :lol:

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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