Surprise Dip In

[Gone baby gone]

Well, we're never going to get a prediction on it from you are we mate?

Of course, what you really hanker after is a HPC isn't it? IRs are what you hope are a means to an end. Still, it's nice for you to clutch at straws. I don't begrudge you one little bit.

6% by the end of 2007. To quote an old advertising slogan "Every little helps"

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Maybe 1 more .25%, although I won't be surprised if we don't see it.

What's your prediction?

well you haven't answered my question.

what's you prediction for IR's for the end of 2007 & the end of 2008 ?

Last year I predicted rates to be @ 6% for the end of 2007 iirc

my prediction for the end of 2008 would be 7%-8%

so just to reiterate then, what are your predictions for the end of 2007 & the end of 2008?

Edited May 18, 2007 by grumpy-old-man

[Casual Observer]

well you haven't answered my question.

what's you prediction for IR's for the end of 2007 & the end of 2008 ?

Last year I predicted rates to be @ 6% for the end of 2007 iirc

my prediction for the end of 2008 would be 7%-8%

so just to reiterate then, what are your predictions for the end of 2007 & the end of 2008?

5.75% and 5.75%. I could be wrong, but then again I'm not so convinced about IRs causing a HPC as some of you lot, so I probably don't think it's as relevant as you.

What's your prediction for Nationwide's national average HPI figure for the end of 2007?

Edited May 18, 2007 by Casual Observer

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

5.75% and 5.75%. I could be wrong, but then again I'm not so convinced about IRs causing a HPC as some of you lot, so I probably don't think it's as relevant as you.

What's your prediction for Nationwide's national average HPI figure for the end of 2007?

so you honestly think that IR's will remain at 5.75% for the next 18 months

you need to see the graphs I have seen then charting historical data, you might find them interesting, I will find the link as there was a very useful on eposted only today.....hang on a minute.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

5.75% and 5.75%. I could be wrong, but then again I'm not so convinced about IRs causing a HPC as some of you lot, so I probably don't think it's as relevant as you.

What's your prediction for Nationwide's national average HPI figure for the end of 2007?

right then, heres a link to ah-so's thread (hope he doesn't mind), read the whole thread & charts & I would like to hear your comments.

check this thread

edited to add - and a very good thread it was.

Edited May 18, 2007 by grumpy-old-man

[Gone baby gone]

5.75% and 5.75%. I could be wrong, but then again I'm not so convinced about IRs causing a HPC as some of you lot, so I probably don't think it's as relevant as you.

What's your prediction for Nationwide's national average HPI figure for the end of 2007?

Hmm, perhaps my figure of 6% was too low, if you are saying 5.75% and you are always 0.5% behind...

Edited to add my prediction for YoY UK wide HPI at the end of 2007, which is 5%

Edited May 18, 2007 by redalert

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

5.75% and 5.75%. I could be wrong, but then again I'm not so convinced about IRs causing a HPC as some of you lot, so I probably don't think it's as relevant as you.

What's your prediction for Nationwide's national average HPI figure for the end of 2007?

here's another thread for you to look at, Largely Ignorant (who is obviously not, just the same as you are not a Casual Observer ) has put some great charts up for us to all look at.

more charts'n'stuff

[Casual Observer]

I would like to hear your comments.

You sound like my old headmaster!

I would like your comments on what went wrong with the crash that was supposed to start in Q1 2007.

[Casual Observer]

Edited to add my prediction for YoY UK wide HPI at the end of 2007, which is 5%

You just pinched that from Nationwide.

What did you think the level of annual UK hpi would be by now?

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

You sound like my old headmaster!

I would like your comments on what went wrong with the crash that was supposed to start in Q1 2007.

ah, the old, answer a question with a question, eh CO ?

I think you need a visit from Paxman.

[Casual Observer]

here's another thread for you to look at, Largely Ignorant (who is obviously not, just the same as you are not a Casual Observer ) has put some great charts up for us to all look at.

On the other hand, you are a grumpy old man, on account of your not having the house price crash you expected

[Casual Observer]

ah, the old, answer a question with a question, eh CO ?

I think you need a visit from Paxman.

I can't be ar5ed to follow your questions to be honest, as they are usually nonsensical and off-the-point.

Was it something interesting?

I've seen charts and reasons on this forum, and its predecessor, since 2003. Many of them predicted house price falls within weeks. People who bought a house in 2003 were called muppets.

I have my own reasons for thinking that prices will correct through lower-than-inflation rises, which I've posted dozens of times. None of them have really been argued against in any depth, I just keep getting the same old mantra about IRs, Australian price crashes (whatever happened to that dead-cert?), charts and trends. When all the data shows house prices still rising, most people call them a pack of lies. Inflation is really 12%, the ONS fiddles the CPI weightings blah blah blah. Meanwhile, there's still no real let-up in house prices.

It's simple really GOM. People are still paying current prices. It may be socially unfair that they are investors rather than home owners, but they are. And as they become unaffordable, prices will stop rising. I saw it happen for about 3 years where I live, from 2003. Prices didn't collapse the way many of us thought they would. They started rising again as soon as they became affordable again, through the combination of a 0.25% IR cut and increased wages.

Edited May 18, 2007 by Casual Observer

[Gone baby gone]

You just pinched that from Nationwide.

I guess they know something you don't?

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

I can't be ar5ed to follow your questions to be honest, as they are usually nonsensical and off-the-point.

Was it something interesting?

well yes, I thought so.

[Ted D. Bear]

Meanwhile online shopping in the UK goes ballistic.

April net sales were up a thumping 55 per cent on last year at £3.47bn, taking the total web-receipts count since 1995 into 12 figures. The IMRG numbers people reckon that annual sales will hit £42bn this year, and fully £78bn (20 per cent of all retail sales) by 2010. They say many sellers have yet to move online, giving the sector plenty of room to grow.

[Gone baby gone]

well yes, I thought so.

He is choosing not to look at it as it will tell him something he doesn't want to hear. A bit like a child with their fingers in their ears.

[Casual Observer]

I guess they know something you don't?

I've been calling a lowering of HPI for about 18 months. It's you and GOM that expected a price crash, if you're honest.

5% HPI - is that a Bear success story?

Edited May 18, 2007 by Casual Observer

[Casual Observer]

He is choosing not to look at it as it will tell him something he doesn't want to hear. A bit like a child with their fingers in their ears.

Don't tell me - it's a post that proves prices will crash within weeks. I've seen a few hundred of them on here over the last few years.

[Gone baby gone]

Don't tell me - it's a post that proves prices will crash within weeks. I've seen a few hundred of them on here over the last few years.

For you, ignorance seems to be bliss.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Meanwhile online shopping in the UK goes ballistic.

that of course is a very fair comment. A lot of retail buying has been transferred to the Internet. Less people running these automated IT systems means less employment also though.

Keeps the couriers happy with all those returns eh ?

[Casual Observer]

that of course is a very fair comment. A lot of retail buying has been transferred to the Internet. Less people running these automated IT systems means less employment also though.

Keeps the couriers happy with all those returns eh ?

So - still plenty of money in the economy then?

Is this good for you, or bad?

[Gone baby gone]

So - still plenty of money in the economy then?

Clutching at straws, indeed!

Read the article and you will discover that UK online sales account for approximately 10% of UK retail sales. So the high street with 90% of the sales volume is reporting an unexpected drop. I would imagine one reason for increased online sales is a greater number of cost conscious shoppers.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

So - still plenty of money in the economy then?

Is this good for you, or bad?

has something changed today CO? you seem a bit different. It wasn't this was it:

oh dear....trouble at mill

[Casual Observer]

has something changed today CO? you seem a bit different. It wasn't this was it:

oh dear....trouble at mill

That link was an article talking about a possible end to high price rises in London.

That's exactly what I've been predicting. Are you coming over to my way of thinking GOM?

I always thought you were predicting a fall in prices. Seems I had you wrong.

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

That link was an article talking about a possible end to high price rises in London.

That's exactly what I've been predicting. Are you coming over to my way of thinking GOM?

I always thought you were predicting a fall in prices. Seems I had you wrong.