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no room at the inn

Spoken To An Economist

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Last night my wife had a friend over, she is a Economist for a world leading Risk Assessment Company. They look into the risk of things like investments, buy outs and if you might die if you go to a country (this aspect of her work not so important to us)

I asked her about a "possible" crash jokingly thinking she would be all "no way". Her answer = absolutely! her entire office thinks yes they just don't know when or how big but there is NO doubt it is all coming down (Houses and the world wide credit bubble). THEY ARE ADVISING CUSTOMERS OF THERES THAT THIS IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

Her office is made up of Ex-Generals and Ex-Investment Bankers. THEY ARE ALL SET ON A CRASH!

Interesting News.

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Her office is made up of Ex-Generals and Ex-Investment Bankers. THEY ARE ALL SET ON A CRASH!

I don't know about ex-generals but there have been plenty of ex-IBankers on HPC. There's no monopoly on thought you know. Do you think she went back to work yapping about how one of her friends already had it all sussed out?

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Last night my wife had a friend over, she is a Economist for a world leading Risk Assessment Company. They look into the risk of things like investments, buy outs and if you might die if you go to a country (this aspect of her work not so important to us)

I asked her about a "possible" crash jokingly thinking she would be all "no way". Her answer = absolutely! her entire office thinks yes they just don't know when or how big but there is NO doubt it is all coming down (Houses and the world wide credit bubble). THEY ARE ADVISING CUSTOMERS OF THERES THAT THIS IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

Her office is made up of Ex-Generals and Ex-Investment Bankers. THEY ARE ALL SET ON A CRASH!

Interesting News.

Its not just these economists(and i use the word lightly cuz david smith thinks he is one and we know what a knob he is) but the man on the street that is starting to talk about the market crashing.

I had a lorry driver in today who unprompted said that because littlejohn in the sun says houses are way overpriced that a crash is inevitable what with the sun readers and express and mail masses being fed such fodder it is sinking in and aiding the coming major sentiment change

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Last night my wife had a friend over, she is a Economist for a world leading Risk Assessment Company. They look into the risk of things like investments, buy outs and if you might die if you go to a country (this aspect of her work not so important to us)

I asked her about a "possible" crash jokingly thinking she would be all "no way". Her answer = absolutely! her entire office thinks yes they just don't know when or how big but there is NO doubt it is all coming down (Houses and the world wide credit bubble). THEY ARE ADVISING CUSTOMERS OF THERES THAT THIS IS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

Her office is made up of Ex-Generals and Ex-Investment Bankers. THEY ARE ALL SET ON A CRASH!

Interesting News.

Went to uni with one of the authors of the bearish ABN housing report (pinned on the front page of HPC). Catching up for drinks in the next couple of weeks, so I'll report back what they're REALLY thinking.

Edited by uncle_monty

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I think this is quite relevant. Sentiment is starting to turn, but there are still plenty of sheeple who think that prices will go up and more debt will be allowed. I bet if you ask people on the street, 5 out of 10 won't know anything about the interest rates, let alone the interest rates rises.

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Guest Winnie

This is really interesting - I spoke to a Hedge Fund boss last week and he says the crash is definitely coming. Economists think very little of the BoE right now too.

Also, the point about the Sun readers is key - we have a two pronged attack going on - the City and the page 3 brigade are vehemently agreeing......

With our highly "connected" world crashes happen so much faster - and this will not be coming out of the blue for anyone who is thinking clearly...Expect a very rapid set of downward judders once the media or SM trigger occurs.

I think this is quite relevant. Sentiment is starting to turn, but there are still plenty of sheeple who think that prices will go up and more debt will be allowed. I bet if you ask people on the street, 5 out of 10 won't know anything about the interest rates, let alone the interest rates rises.

That'll be the five who get the bailiffs at the door by Christmas then?

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:blink:

what I mean is, they won't know what is the current interest rate and the fact that the BOE uses it as a tool to monitor inflation.

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what I mean is, they won't know what is the current interest rate and the fact that the BOE uses it as a tool to monitor inflation.

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

The interest rate published by the Bank of England represents the number of people who are interested in borrowing money.

For example, 5.5% means exactly that. Out of 100 people surveyed, 5.5 people were interested to know how the economy was going.

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I don't know about ex-generals but there have been plenty of ex-IBankers on HPC. There's no monopoly on thought you know. Do you think she went back to work yapping about how one of her friends already had it all sussed out?

No why would she go back to her company and say " i have a friend in IT who think the world is coming to an end....."

I shared this for 2 reasons

1. Some of the most intelligent people in there field are also sharing the thoughts we are. Remember not all the people on this site are economists etc. The company she works for makes alot of money being correct.

2. The industry sentiment looks to be turning, shareholders will be reading the stuff they are now publishing and maybe wondering is it time to sell? the dow looks interesting at the moment. Sentiment on the streets will turn when people can't buy homes, if industry sentitment turns and the banks tighten credit we are all done for.

The ex-Ibankers who work for there company are the ones who got it right when they where ibankers not the one who did ok.....

If i go up to some major share holders and say i think it's time for a recession and a correction in the housing market they prob laugh at me. If these guys tell them then they will maybe still will laugh but deep down it will worry them.....

Edited by no room at the inn

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No why would she go back to her company and say " i have a friend in IT who think the world is coming to an end....."

I shared this for 2 reasons

1. Some of the most intelligent people in there field are also sharing the thoughts we are. Remember not all the people on this site are economists etc. The company she works for makes alot of money being correct.

2. The industry sentiment looks to be turning, shareholders will be reading the stuff they are now publishing and maybe wondering is it time to sell? the dow looks interesting at the moment. Sentiment on the streets will turn when people can't buy homes, if industry sentitment turns and the banks tighten credit we are all done for.

The ex-Ibankers who work for there company are the ones who got it right when they where ibankers not the one who did ok.....

If i go up to some major share holders and say i think it's time for a recession and a correction in the housing market they prob laugh at me. If these guys tell them then they will maybe still will laugh but deep down it will worry them.....

Yes, I know, I was joshing about how deferential you were to someone who tells you they are very important. I'm trying to do you a favour: have confidence in what you believe - you can hold your own with anyone. Nobody knows nothing.

It would be odd though if a leading Risk Assessment Company had not considered a housing market crash. :lol: What were they saying back in 2005? Do they research Blogs and sites like these to gauge sentiment?

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Went to uni with one of the authors of the bearish ABN housing report (pinned on the front page of HPC). Catching up for drinks in the next couple of weeks, so I'll report back what they're REALLY thinking.

They're wondering if they will still have a job in 3 months time, where their head office will be and if they are still allowed to publish stuff like that once they've been "integrated".

Seriously though, I look forward to your report back here, nice one.

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The only fly in the ointment is the fact that the only people who can afford to buy in London at the moment are the alleged "smart money" bankers, and they are piling in like never before.

evidence?

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evidence?

Are you aware of how much more expensive propetties are in London now compared to last year? I'm sure you'll find the evidence easily. If you are suggesting that things may be on the turn at the transactions coalface right now, I agree it could be happening, but I haven't seen or heard even anecdotal evidence for that. Have you?

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