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adamlondon

Central London - Its Still Boom Time Apparently

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I appreciate that this post will only be of interest to a few but please don't give me flack on the basis of where I live.

I'm a bear but beginning to lose faith for the reasons set out below.

I'm In NW8 looking for a house. I had observed property staying longer on the market and thought that meant sellers would start taking lower offers. I was disabused of this last week when I made offers on two properties below the asking price and was told by the EA that in both cases the sellers had offers above the asking price but were holding out for more!!

My view is that prime central london is completely detached from the wider housing market and that it is driven by banker bonuses and foreign 'investors' I was told that 42 per cent of buyers in NW8 are foreign cash buyers. If you need a mortgage or have somthing to sell then you are of no interest to EAs. I note the prediciton is that there will be significant city bonuses next year. I would be delighted to seee a fall but cannot see where it is coming from.

To give an indication of the boom. In my street in July 2005 a house was sold for £995k. It has just been resold for £2m. I myself was gazumped by somebody offering £400k! more on the day of exchange in April. 18 months years ago I was told by EAs that you will not get ahouse in NW8 for less than £1m now they tell me I will not get ahouse for less than £2m. I told my wife in 2005 that we shouldn't buy because a crash was immintent. The only saving grace is I didn't STR.

Also homeowners here are so well of and mortgage free that interest rate rises do not have the same impact.

Does anyone know what the effect of the hpc last time was in the cetral london market?

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I appreciate that this post will only be of interest to a few but please don't give me flack on the basis of where I live.

I'm a bear but beginning to lose faith for the reasons set out below.

I'm In NW8 looking for a house. I had observed property staying longer on the market and thought that meant sellers would start taking lower offers. I was disabused of this last week when I made offers on two properties below the asking price and was told by the EA that in both cases the sellers had offers above the asking price but were holding out for more!!

My view is that prime central london is completely detached from the wider housing market and that it is driven by banker bonuses and foreign 'investors' I was told that 42 per cent of buyers in NW8 are foreign cash buyers. If you need a mortgage or have somthing to sell then you are of no interest to EAs. I note the prediciton is that there will be significant city bonuses next year. I would be delighted to seee a fall but cannot see where it is coming from.

To give an indication of the boom. In my street in July 2005 a house was sold for £995k. It has just been resold for £2m. I myself was gazumped by somebody offering £400k! more on the day of exchange in April. 18 months years ago I was told by EAs that you will not get ahouse in NW8 for less than £1m now they tell me I will not get ahouse for less than £2m. I told my wife in 2005 that we shouldn't buy because a crash was immintent. The only saving grace is I didn't STR.

Also homeowners here are so well of and mortgage free that interest rate rises do not have the same impact.

Does anyone know what the effect of the hpc last time was in the cetral london market?

Even I can spot this one

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I appreciate that this post will only be of interest to a few but please don't give me flack on the basis of where I live.

I'm a bear but beginning to lose faith for the reasons set out below.

I'm In NW8 looking for a house. I had observed property staying longer on the market and thought that meant sellers would start taking lower offers. I was disabused of this last week when I made offers on two properties below the asking price and was told by the EA that in both cases the sellers had offers above the asking price but were holding out for more!!

My view is that prime central london is completely detached from the wider housing market and that it is driven by banker bonuses and foreign 'investors' I was told that 42 per cent of buyers in NW8 are foreign cash buyers. If you need a mortgage or have somthing to sell then you are of no interest to EAs. I note the prediciton is that there will be significant city bonuses next year. I would be delighted to seee a fall but cannot see where it is coming from.

To give an indication of the boom. In my street in July 2005 a house was sold for £995k. It has just been resold for £2m. I myself was gazumped by somebody offering £400k! more on the day of exchange in April. 18 months years ago I was told by EAs that you will not get ahouse in NW8 for less than £1m now they tell me I will not get ahouse for less than £2m. I told my wife in 2005 that we shouldn't buy because a crash was immintent. The only saving grace is I didn't STR.

Also homeowners here are so well of and mortgage free that interest rate rises do not have the same impact.

Does anyone know what the effect of the hpc last time was in the cetral london market?

They'll probably be £4m next year, then £8m the year after, increasing exponentially until the end of time. You should dive in quickly and offer twice the asking price from now on, or you'll miss the boat and be priced out for all eternity.

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They'll probably be £4m next year, then £8m the year after, increasing exponentially until the end of time. You should dive in quickly and offer twice the asking price from now on, or you'll miss the boat and be priced out for all eternity.

Grow up

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Grow up

this is not my street for obvious reasons but look at the land registry prices if you don't belive me: Take No. 43 as an example: The house next door to that sold at £1.9 last month.

As I said don't give me flack because of where I live

16 Nov 2006 43, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,670,000

12 Apr 2006 45, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,310,000

06 Feb 2006 41, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,170,000

14 Jun 2002 21, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PR Terr Lease £1,025,000

02 Dec 2003 31, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Lease £980,000

16 Sep 2004 45, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £980,000

30 Apr 2004 37, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £802,400

30 Sep 2005 43, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £790,000

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I had a look at the EA windows round my old stomping ground of Notting Hill/Bayswater.

There was a small, albeit nice, studio flat in a fairly nice block.

360K

Utter, utter lunacy. Detached is the word...

Detached from the real world that is... no chance of being detached from your neighbours! :lol:

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I had a look at the EA windows round my old stomping ground of Notting Hill/Bayswater.

There was a small, albeit nice, studio flat in a fairly nice block.

360K

Utter, utter lunacy. Detached is the word...

I wouldn't buy looking in my area now, I'm glad I bought when I did and think even I would struggle to raise a deposit / pay the mortgage If i were looking now.

A lot of people are comparing IO mortgage costs against rent when looking to buy. foolish to say the least.

Maybe people buying think there is a couple of years of increases to go in london, if the prices do drop it won't go to lower than they bought it. just a thought

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16 Nov 2006 43, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,670,000

12 Apr 2006 45, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,310,000

06 Feb 2006 41, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £1,170,000

14 Jun 2002 21, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PR Terr Lease £1,025,000

02 Dec 2003 31, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Lease £980,000

16 Sep 2004 45, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £980,000

30 Apr 2004 37, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £802,400

30 Sep 2005 43, ORDNANCE HILL, NW8 6PS Terr Free £790,000

I love these figures. This just reinforces my belief that London is becoming one big speculative bubble. NI anyone?

That works out at £68,000 TAX FREE a month for 14 months. £880,000 'profit' in 14 months TAX FREE!!!!.

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I wouldn't buy looking in my area now, I'm glad I bought when I did and think even I would struggle to raise a deposit / pay the mortgage If i were looking now.

A lot of people are comparing IO mortgage costs against rent when looking to buy. foolish to say the least.

Maybe people buying think there is a couple of years of increases to go in london, if the prices do drop it won't go to lower than they bought it. just a thought

I'm gonna hold you to that.

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I love these figures. This just reinforces my belief that London is becoming one big speculative bubble. NI anyone?

That works out at £68,000 TAX FREE a month for 14 months. £880,000 'profit' in 14 months TAX FREE!!!!.

Maybe the knocked it down and rebuild a much bigger property?

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I'm gonna hold you to that.

If you read my post I never said I believed it, just trying to understand some of the valuations, and what people might be thinking who buy at these prices, for things I would consider to be overpriced

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Maybe the knocked it down and rebuild a much bigger property?

Yes, its a possibility, but I've seen lunatic increases in London prices so this really doesn't surprise me if its the same house.

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Well with the uk being an onshore tax heaven, the uber rich are settling in prime central London.

wonder how many multimillionaires have settled in central London from aboard in the last 5 years

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its not, its a listed victorian terrace in a conservation area

Assuming you are not an estate agent, my apologies for thinking you were.

As cells says, the non-domesticated tax legislation, whereby over 110,000 foreign people residing in the UK live here virtually tax free, is pricing you out (along with cheap credit).

If you want to do something about it, ask the Tax Justice Network: http://www.taxjustice.net what you can do to help, or write to your MP about this unfair system.

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I read through the April RICs survey comments section at the back where individual agents give their view and some of those agents are beginning to say that London prices are madness.

http://www.rics.org/NR/rdonlyres/D96F0226-...l2007PUBLIC.pdf

One telling comment I did read was that the central London market appeared to be peaking and buyers were refusing to bid up unless a property is perfect. Another said that London prices were in reality driven by top end buyers coming in to the capital from overseas so nothing to do with UK earnings, FTBs, mortgage interest rates, HIPs etc. If this is true then London as the tax haven to the world may well be the reason for its continued strength and not UK economic fundamentals.

A few years ago I looked at Guernsey property and it did seem that for a small island with financial services as its only industry (and its tax haven status) that prices in the 'Open Market' which foreigners are allowed to buy were far detached from reality. Unfortunatley, the Local Market' in Guernsey which is the vast bulk of houses have now suffered the same spill over effect as people who have lived on Guernsy for 20 years can move on to buy up local houses.

London is beginning to look the same - prices at the top end are purely based on its tax haven status and local people are priced out completely. No normal person can live there except in subsidised housing or in housing that they bought a long time ago or inherited - as is the case in Guernsey.

That said, Guernsey has suffered catastrophic crashes where I heard that Open Market houses were abandoned to the lenders in the early 1980s and their overseas owners never returned. London could do the same if there is a tax crack down. Anyone from Guernsey agree or disagree with this analysis?

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Assuming you are not an estate agent, my apologies for thinking you were.

As cells says, the non-domesticated tax legislation, whereby over 110,000 foreign people residing in the UK live here virtually tax free, is pricing you out (along with cheap credit).

If you want to do something about it, ask the Tax Justice Network: http://www.taxjustice.net what you can do to help, or write to your MP about this unfair system.

I'm not an EA apology accpeted and i'll check out the webiste, thanks

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I think London and central London in particular will be hit worst of all in the coming crash. I remember the last crash and owned a flat in West London at the time, trust me prices fell - a lot.

You only need cast your mind back to 2005 to realise that central London is especially vulnerable. During the 'slowdown' there were reports of properties falling 20% in value in central London. Remember the stories of the Blairs house plunging them into negative equity ?

The problem with London is that it is built entirley around financial services and banking. In the boom times it's BOOM PLUS time for London but when its bust time ( and it will be soon ) then its BUST PLUS with knobs on.

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I think London and central London in particular will be hit worst of all in the coming crash. I remember the last crash and owned a flat in West London at the time, trust me prices fell - a lot.

You only need cast your mind back to 2005 to realise that central London is especially vulnerable. During the 'slowdown' there were reports of properties falling 20% in value in central London. Remember the stories of the Blairs house plunging them into negative equity ?

The problem with London is that it is built entirley around financial services and banking. In the boom times it's BOOM PLUS time for London but when its bust time ( and it will be soon ) then its BUST PLUS with knobs on.

An interesting viewpoint. So how do you justify the massive price:earnings inequality in the provinces? True, in a HPC scenario, London will feel pain. However, I believe that the provinces will be hit first and hardest.

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Well with the uk being an onshore tax heaven, the uber rich are settling in prime central London.

wonder how many multimillionaires have settled in central London from aboard in the last 5 years

Incredible numbers have with Dear Gordon as Chancellor. Life's Great in Britain if you're either a multi-millionaire or a dole scrounger, it's everyone else in between who gets shafted. Very Nu Labour. Central london will continue to grow in price until a change in taxing regime for wealthy internationals (unlikely with Gordy moving inNo. 10) or a City crash

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