Oh Dear . . . 2.8% . . .

[Casual Observer]

Would you say the average Briton eats less bread and meat than in 1996 then? And that we've had a huge drop in temperatures in the last year to the extent people are heating their homes far more than in 2006?

It doesn't work that way!

If, for example, bread falls in weighting, it's because people spent a smaller proportion of their total spend on bread this year than they did last year. It doesn't neccessarily mean they spent less on bread than they did last year.

Same goes with fuel or any other expenditure. Consumption of anything can rise, but at the same time the proportion of total income spent on it can fall. Basic stuff - come on guys!

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

It doesn't work that way!

If, for example, bread falls in weighting, it's because people spent a smaller proportion of their total spend on bread this year than they did last year. It doesn't neccessarily mean they spent less on bread than they did last year.

Same goes with fuel or any other expenditure. Consumption of anything can rise, but at the same time the proportion of total income spent on it can fall. Basic stuff - come on guys!

I assumed they would just have categories with all food stuffs lobbed in, so to speak, breaking it down to "sprouts" & "brillo pads" is not my idea of a government thinktank discussing the UK's economic future.

I mean what about the families that don't eat sprouts & use a cloth instead of a brillo pad?

I can't believe that they go to this itemised level....hilarious

[davros]

It doesn't work that way!

If, for example, bread falls in weighting, it's because people spent a smaller proportion of their total spend on bread this year than they did last year. It doesn't neccessarily mean they spent less on bread than they did last year.

Same goes with fuel or any other expenditure. Consumption of anything can rise, but at the same time the proportion of total income spent on it can fall. Basic stuff - come on guys!

And because bread has gone up around 60% in three years it obviously stands to reason that their total spend on bread would be lower? I don't think so.

[Casual Observer]

I assumed they would just have categories with all food stuffs lobbed in, so to speak, breaking it down to "sprouts" & "brillo pads" is not my idea of a government thinktank discussing the UK's economic future.

I mean what about the families that don't eat sprouts & use a cloth instead of a brillo pad?

I can't believe that they go to this itemised level....hilarious

Yes it is very itemised, because it is based on the things that people are actually buying. If you spend more of your income on brillo pads this year, the weighting of brillo pads will rise.

It's nothing to do with "government thinktank" or government policy.

[BuyingBear]

All is not lost people, if things get bad Gordy, Merv and ONS can pull some new 'tricks' :-

Prostitutes, smugglers boost Greek economy

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=1518-1783_2004654' rel="external nofollow">

Prostitutes and smugglers will give the Greek economy an unexpected boost as their illicit activities will now be counted in the country's official economic output, a senior official said on Wednesday.

Under pressure from the European Union to cut its deficits, Greece is revising its gross domestic product to include part of the booming black economy, boosting its output by at least 10 percent in 2006, the country's chief statistician told Reuters.

"The revised GDP will include some money from illegal activities, such as money from cigarette and drinks smuggling, prostitution and money laundering," National Statistics Service chief Manolis Kontopyrakis said in an interview.

Just like that!

Edited May 15, 2007 by BuyingBear

[Casual Observer]

And because bread has gone up around 60% in three years it obviously stands to reason that their total spend on bread would be lower? I don't think so.

Total spend? I just explained how it's not based on total spend.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Yes it is very itemised, because it is based on the things that people are actually buying. If you spend more of your income on brillo pads this year, the weighting of brillo pads will rise.

It's nothing to do with "government thinktank" or government policy.

And the numbers of various goods are counted by averaging the amounts bought by a sample of the population visited by a census taker?

One who has recently been visiting a large number of homes buying electrical goods on their MEWed income perchance?

[davros]

Total spend? I just explained how it's not based on total spend.

whats this then CO:

"If, for example, bread falls in weighting, it's because people spent a smaller proportion of their total spend on bread this year than they did last year. It doesn't neccessarily mean they spent less on bread than they did last year"

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

Yes it is very itemised, because it is based on the things that people are actually buying. If you spend more of your income on brillo pads this year, the weighting of brillo pads will rise.

It's nothing to do with "government thinktank" or government policy.

I was generalising. stop being so pedan..., ah, it doesn't matter.

All I know is they leave some very strange things out of the basket then, considering they itemise to this level...h'mm very strange indeed, some would say they do it on purpose so that the real cost of living isn't realised, then the numbers would jump up massively & go way beyond their targets & to the detriment of the UK economy.

Edited May 15, 2007 by grumpy-old-man

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

All is not lost people, if things get bad Gordy, Merv and ONS can pull some new 'tricks' :-

Prostitutes, smugglers boost Greek economy

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=1518-1783_2004654' rel="external nofollow">

Prostitutes and smugglers will give the Greek economy an unexpected boost as their illicit activities will now be counted in the country's official economic output, a senior official said on Wednesday.

Under pressure from the European Union to cut its deficits, Greece is revising its gross domestic product to include part of the booming black economy, boosting its output by at least 10 percent in 2006, the country's chief statistician told Reuters.

"The revised GDP will include some money from illegal activities, such as money from cigarette and drinks smuggling, prostitution and money laundering," National Statistics Service chief Manolis Kontopyrakis said in an interview.

Just like that!

Perhaps we could add income from reclaimed bank charges to the GDP.

[Casual Observer]

whats this then CO:

"If, for example, bread falls in weighting, it's because people spent a smaller proportion of their total spend on bread this year than they did last year. It doesn't neccessarily mean they spent less on bread than they did last year"

The proportion of total spend on bread is not the same as the total spend on bread!

E.G.

In 2005 I earn £100 per week. I spend £50 on bread and £50 on brillo pads

In 2007 I earn £120. I spend £55 on bread and £65 on brillo pads.

The total spend on bread has risen but the proportion of total spend has fallen.

(NB. This does not represent CO's actual spending pattern)

Edited May 15, 2007 by Casual Observer

[Guest grumpy-old-man]

All is not lost people, if things get bad Gordy, Merv and ONS can pull some new 'tricks' :-

Prostitutes, smugglers boost Greek economy

http://www.fin24.co.za/articles/companies/display_article.aspx?Nav=ns&lvl2=comp&ArticleID=1518-1783_2004654' rel="external nofollow">

Prostitutes and smugglers will give the Greek economy an unexpected boost as their illicit activities will now be counted in the country's official economic output, a senior official said on Wednesday.

Under pressure from the European Union to cut its deficits, Greece is revising its gross domestic product to include part of the booming black economy, boosting its output by at least 10 percent in 2006, the country's chief statistician told Reuters.

"The revised GDP will include some money from illegal activities, such as money from cigarette and drinks smuggling, prostitution and money laundering," National Statistics Service chief Manolis Kontopyrakis said in an interview.

Just like that!

ahh, a bit of humour to the thread, always a welcome sight.

[Nick..]

So what if most analysts are predicting rates'll go up by another quarter . . . is that really going to crash the market ?? Lots of you reckoned 5.5% would have everyone running for the exits but I've yet to be bowled over by bailin' BTLers . . .

Nope, they're busy trying to put up their rents

When they realise that isn't going to work, then you'll see 'em " bailin' "

Patience, my friend

[Casual Observer]

I was generalising. stop being so pedan..., ah, it doesn't matter.

No you weren't! You were suggesting that the CPI basket was too itemised for a government thinktank document. Don't wriggle!

[BuyingBear]

Perhaps we could add income from reclaimed bank charges to the GDP.

I like it. Who in the ONS would sample the Hooker Price Index each month?

Edited May 15, 2007 by BuyingBear

[dpg50000]

Getting back onto the thread topic....

Inflation will surely pick up again soon. We've had the drops from the energy companies, they're now in, and nearly all the things RB listed have gone up by at least 5%.

Don't forget also the ONS's major fiddle of increasing the weighting of Gas and Elec after they had been really pricey for a year, and stood to come back down a little. This only excaberates the lie of low inflation....

[Fancypants]

I like it. Who in the ONS would sample the Hooker Price Index each month?

Hedonic adjustments for more deviant sexual practices? Perhaps this is what the term "hedonics" was destined to relate to all along...

[LargelyIgnorant]

Ah, Mr Q107 . . . Ladies and Gentlemen, please . . . a round of applause for everyone's favourite BTLer. We were supposed to be impressed with his "£3m" and your "shrewdly-timed" exit from BTL-dom and his Q107 crash-call . . . Still lurking behind the popular kids are you . . . none of their lustre rubbed off on you yet ??

Mate, the gaff's under offer, housing association cash buyer, FULL market value, no estate agent fees. And if that wasn't enough, Foxton's are literally begging me to give 'em shot at getting me another 30 large . . .

Why don't you gazunder your buyer if you believe you can make another 30k?

Come to that, why are you STRing at all if you believe London property will continue to appreciate?

If the market continues to rise, as you appear to believe it will, wouldn't you be better off if you use rental income for your travelling, then return to an even bigger pile of lubberly equity?

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Hedonic adjustments for more deviant sexual practices? Perhaps this is what the term "hedonics" was destined to relate to all along...

Haha, superb.

"The total spend has gone up, sir, but I think you'll find from these photographs that the hedonic adjustment has moved in a pleasing fashion for both consumers and the treasury"

[LargelyIgnorant]

Getting back onto the thread topic....

Inflation will surely pick up again soon. We've had the drops from the energy companies, they're now in, and nearly all the things RB listed have gone up by at least 5%.

Don't forget also the ONS's major fiddle of increasing the weighting of Gas and Elec after they had been really pricey for a year, and stood to come back down a little. This only excaberates the lie of low inflation....

As if by magic, article in today's Times: Centrica says gas bills may go up again - are they going to decrease the weighting of gas again?

Consumers may face rising gas prices again this year after Centrica said that it could not guarantee that wholesale prices would remain low.

Falling rates had allowed its British Gas subsidiary to cut residential bills twice in recent months.

In a statement released before its annual meeting, Centrica said that while the outlook for its business was encouraging, “significant uncertainty remains over wholesale gas and power prices for the balance of the year and over demand levels due to unusual weather patterns”.

[davros]

The proportion of total spend on bread is not the same as the total spend on bread!

E.G.

In 2005 I earn £100 per week. I spend £50 on bread and £50 on brillo pads

In 2007 I earn £120. I spend £55 on bread and £65 on brillo pads.

The total spend on bread has risen but the proportion of total spend has fallen.

(NB. This does not represent CO's actual spending pattern)

Believe it or not, I do fully understand CPI and how it is worked out.

One thing which is unarguable though is the weightings have been adjusted in such a way that only reduces CPI. Products falling in value are given increased weighting, those increasing have been reduced. Very, very convienient. Surely even you can see the massive increase in weighting toward heating, which incidentally was the largest increase ever, when it had been declining since 1996 - and after having some of the warmest temperatures on record, when prices are now declining, is at least a little bit suspect.

[Guest DissipatedYouthIsValuable]

Believe it or not, I do fully understand CPI and how it is worked out.

One thing which is unarguable though is the weightings have been adjusted in such a way that only reduces CPI. Products falling in value are given increased weighting, those increasing have been reduced. Very, very convienient. Surely even you can see the massive increase in weighting toward heating, which incidentally was the largest increase ever, when it had been declining since 1996 - and after having some of the warmest temperatures on record, when prices are now declining, is at least a little bit suspect.

That's good enough for me.

[FernandoMorientes]

A slightly of topic comparison but I cannot understand how anyone would not be extremly suspicious of a goverment that has repeatedly lied and led us up the garden path on a number of extremly important issues.

For these reason's and (suprise suprise) some extremly dubious looking 'CPI weighting adjustment' I shall continue my cyniscism and not expose mself to any level of risk with Gordon Clown and the nu labour circus troupe in office.

Believe it or not, I do fully understand CPI and how it is worked out.

One thing which is unarguable though is the weightings have been adjusted in such a way that only reduces CPI. Products falling in value are given increased weighting, those increasing have been reduced. Very, very convienient. Surely even you can see the massive increase in weighting toward heating, which incidentally was the largest increase ever, when it had been declining since 1996 - and after having some of the warmest temperatures on record, when prices are now declining, is at least a little bit suspect.

[Casual Observer]

Believe it or not, I do fully understand CPI and how it is worked out.

One thing which is unarguable though is the weightings have been adjusted in such a way that only reduces CPI. Products falling in value are given increased weighting, those increasing have been reduced. Very, very convienient. Surely even you can see the massive increase in weighting toward heating, which incidentally was the largest increase ever, when it had been declining since 1996 - and after having some of the warmest temperatures on record, when prices are now declining, is at least a little bit suspect.

Changes to weightings often have an uplifting effect on CPI and RPI.

I probably won't be able to dissuade you from this conspiracy theory, but ask yourself this: if it was all such a fiddle, why don't they just fiddle it to 2% every month? And why has it not been exposed by anyone e.g. opposition parties, economists, disgruntled ONS staff?

It's legitimate to challenge what's in the basket, imo, but do you honestly believe that they change the weightings to fiddle the outcome? And still miss the target?

[Guest Charlie The Tramp]

I have noticed in the High Street Stores that the goods in the CPI basket are suddenly showing massive discounts. Good old Woolies is an example, likewise the big supermarkets appear to be playing the same game.