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davros

Cpi

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April CPI is announced tomorrow, which the BoE had to hand during their meeting Wed/Thurs last week. What will the figure be?

Davros says: 2.9

Effect: Cable will strengthen in the near term after announcement, very slight chance of short sterling losing a tick.

And if I'm wrong...

At 2.8 cable will sell off, at least until the US announce their CPI. If its lower than that, not only will cable sell off somewhat more, short sterling may gain a tick; markets will possibly adjust for 5.50% being the peak and the end of the tightening cycle.

Of course it could come in higher, but it's pretty unlikely.

Don't forget the Inflation Report is out on Wednesday which should make for some very interesting reading.

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Hmm, tricky, wouldn't like to say really...

so, just bumping this to see if anyone else has wants to polish their guru credentials?

I'd say 3.0+ though.

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3.3 for me

commodities of every discription are up

oranges

wheat

barley

copper

iron

aluminium

onions

strange that factory gate prices are down, considering the raw materials and wage claims are rising strongly

i can only conclude factory gate prices are down to 2.5% because they need to improve sales, the building products retailers prove this is the case with -negative sales data

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April CPI is announced tomorrow, which the BoE had to hand during their meeting Wed/Thurs last week. What will the figure be?

Davros says: 2.9

Effect: Cable will strengthen in the near term after announcement, very slight chance of short sterling losing a tick.

And if I'm wrong...

At 2.8 cable will sell off, at least until the US announce their CPI. If its lower than that, not only will cable sell off somewhat more, short sterling may gain a tick; markets will possibly adjust for 5.50% being the peak and the end of the tightening cycle.

Of course it could come in higher, but it's pretty unlikely.

Don't forget the Inflation Report is out on Wednesday which should make for some very interesting reading.

2.9% and anything less will weaken sterling because it will raise doubts about a further rate hike, which is already fully priced in.

Unless the UK rate is higher than the 2.8% generally being forecast, a 2.5% core rate or higher in the US CPI data later tomorrow could bring cable down to 1.9650.

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Cpi, Whats your prediction?

Whatever the number they come up with, it'll be bullsh*t.

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CPI lower than expected, RPI higher, so I'd say 2.75 and 4.65 - it'll be marginal whether we're looking at a round-up or a round-down.

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CPI lower than expected, RPI higher, so I'd say 2.75 and 4.65 - it'll be marginal whether we're looking at a round-up or a round-down.

are water rate and council tax increases in aprils' figure ?, if so I'll go for 3.0

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go look at the figures on the USA bls web page. (click CPI link)

www.bls.gov

You'll see the breakdown for inflation in the USA is driven by energy prices. The strengthening pound mitigated the effect of rising energy prices last year. Our best hope for HPC is a deflating pound, and rising oil prices. This will create a nice non-linear feedback that could push the UK into deep recession.

;-)

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It'll be fixed so its a little lower than before. I'll go for 3.0

I hope that with all the fixing its higher. Just to see all the bear porn on TV and the express headlines :lol:

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are water rate and council tax increases in aprils' figure ?, if so I'll go for 3.0

They're included in every month's figure, they just only change once a year - these ones will be a downward impact on RPI, because the average council tax increase was 4.5% for the 2006-7 tax year, but only 4.2% for 2007-8.

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british gas are cutting their prices and mervin is in it for the "two years ahead remember"

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The CPI, as always, will be what government wants it to be. It is a fudged number which should be ignored.

If they want to raise rates it will be over 3% and if they want to hold or lower it will below 3%. The 2% number they are SUPPOSED to target has been duly ignored for over a year now.

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