Disillusioned Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Its a small island, with many thousands coming here all the time, the demand for housing is very very high. The supply of housing is very low. So how can prices crash when you have plenty of people trying to buy each property? No no no! :angry: Read some of the other topics on this website about supply and demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nohpc Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Spoken like a true economist ............covering all angles so they don't get there future predictions wrong Maybe I should change career Healthy market with 25% of BTL mortgages in last 3 years with the 3% yields??? What are you smoking??? Weed So you are giving no change a 1% chance? Strong weed My dad was a teacher for thirty years. He knew it was going the way of the pear when his boss started referring to the students as the "consumer". And hospital patients are not called clients. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lol Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Current random news stories about House Prices that are not hand picked and spoon fed to the HPC bears by the likes of RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Current random news stories about House Prices that are not hand picked and spoon fed to the HPC bears by the likes of RB. oh no, a link to lots of sites by people with a vested interest (VI for the newbies), telling us that property prices are booming & likely to double shortly everywhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furby Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Current random news stories about House Prices that are not hand picked and spoon fed to the HPC bears by the likes of RB. Canadian House Prices Will Double in the Next 20 years, Says Economistby Jim Adair Dont believe the hype. My maths is not the best but doubling in 20 years i reckon works out at about 3.5% per year compounded. Less than you get in a savings account. Ramp Ramp Ramp..... F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firsttimebuyer Posted April 19, 2007 Author Share Posted April 19, 2007 No no no! :angry: Read some of the other topics on this website about supply and demand. i'm sorry but i have read the topics and they are nonsense. I looked for a house for 1 whole year, and for each house i viewed, we had a number of poeple veiwing. I saw houses come on the market and were gone within days. I put in offers for several houses only to be told the house had sold! I only brought my house because we were the first to view it, before it before it even went on the market, only because the estate agent was a good friend of my wifes. We put an offer in and the next people to put view also wanted it. but our estate agent convinced them to accept our offer which was pretty decent and we got the house!! For some houses, people were offering OVER the asking price, something which shocked me. For one house i offered 3k below asking price. Someone else offered 5k OVER the asking price. It was a family of african immigrants who worked as cleaners and for royal mail. Now with several of them working full time, a mortgage was going to be easy for them! It boils down to this. For each house, there are several people who are prepared to offer close to the asking price. Supply is low, demand is high, very high. Therefore prices will not crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ReggiePerrin Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Current random news stories about House Prices that are not hand picked and spoon fed to the HPC bears by the likes of RB. It was a good link! I enjoyed this item which reminded me of the stories reported by the press during the last crash in the UK. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woot Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 (edited) My thoughts. By 2010 33% chance of prices dropping a little 66% chance of prices rising Well actually it was PWC that said that. There is a significant chance of a correction but the balance is still in favour of a healthy market. NOHPC, please can you give the rationale behind this statement? I presume you have reasons for making it and would like to understand whether you are speaking from a reasoned position or whether this is a statement of faith. TD [Edit to add] ... and, without wishing to be intrusive, could you give some indication of your age? I'm intersted to know whether you have weathered previous crashes as opposed to corrections. Thanks, TD Edited April 19, 2007 by The Dragon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 i'm sorry but i have read the topics and they are nonsense. I only brought my house because we were the first to view it. At least you have put your money where your mouth is and made someone else very happy with your stash of cash. As for the outcome I personally don't think it will be a rosey one. Dismissing credible topics as nonsense kind of sums up your attitude towards the housing market - you will live and learn, the wife may not be with you when it all goes tits up. Women like men who are successful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 NOHPC, please can you give the rationale behind this statement? I presume you have reasons for making it and would like to understand whether you are speaking from a reasoned position or whether this is a statement of faith.TD You have answered your own question - it is a statement of faith. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Sacks Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 (edited) The thing, the people calling for a crash, is it because you WANT a crash, and are hoping for a crash, or do you base your opinions on sound "evidence" that a crash is inevitable? Personally i cannot see a crash, a correction, maybe, but not a crash. Its a small island, with many thousands coming here all the time, the demand for housing is very very high. The supply of housing is very low. So how can prices crash when you have plenty of people trying to buy each property? FTB, I've just watched the lunchtime news on the BBC. There was a piece on UK property with regard to the FRM news today. The graphics board behind the presenter showed an image of a HOUSE SINKING UNDER THE WATER! hmm, what kind of message do you think they were trying to convey with that one? A picture says a thousand words. Edited April 19, 2007 by dom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woot Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 The supply of housing is very low. So how can prices crash when you have plenty of people trying to buy each property? There is a significant supply of properties standing empty. They have been bought by 'investors' who cannot, or do not wish to, rent them out. When they become a negative investment (ie loss maker) those who cannot sit it out over the long term will try to liquidate their investment. Therefore it is likely that more of these properties will return to the market. In that environment you will not have many people trying to buy each property. Personally I believe that turning a home into an investment (allowing it to stand empty as a cash accumulator) is an iniquitous practice when there are many people who require a roof over their head, and so I shall be happy to see the balance redressed. TD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firsttimebuyer Posted April 19, 2007 Author Share Posted April 19, 2007 At least you have put your money where your mouth is and made someone else very happy with your stash of cash. As for the outcome I personally don't think it will be a rosey one.Dismissing credible topics as nonsense kind of sums up your attitude towards the housing market - you will live and learn, the wife may not be with you when it all goes tits up. Women like men who are successful well if having a house makes me successful, i'm probably more successful then you if you have no house Women like men who take risks, they dont like the little wimps who are to afraid to make big decisions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disillusioned Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 i'm sorry but i have read the topics and they are nonsense. This, this and this are well written posts about why supply and demand (though it exists) relies on other economic factors. These economic factors will cause HPC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
firsttimebuyer Posted April 19, 2007 Author Share Posted April 19, 2007 There is a significant supply of properties standing empty. They have been bought by 'investors' who cannot, or do not wish to, rent them out. When they become a negative investment (ie loss maker) those who cannot sit it out over the long term will try to liquidate their investment. Therefore it is likely that more of these properties will return to the market.In that environment you will not have many people trying to buy each property. Personally I believe that turning a home into an investment (allowing it to stand empty as a cash accumulator) is an iniquitous practice when there are many people who require a roof over their head, and so I shall be happy to see the balance redressed. TD well just where exactly are these empty properties? In places where nobody wants to live? So if nobody wants them now, why would they want them later. I have yet to come across all these mysterious "empty" properties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Women like men who take risks, they dont like the little wimps who are to afraid to make big decisions informed decisions, not ones based on what Kirsty 'n' Phil told you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 well just where exactly are these empty properties? In places where nobody wants to live? So if nobody wants them now, why would they want them later. because they may be cheaper? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OurDayWillCome Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 well if having a house makes me successful, i'm probably more successful then you if you have no house Women like men who take risks, they dont like the little wimps who are to afraid to make big decisions Yes you are deemed as successful at the mo As for me I take risks – I have my own business. As for being a little wimp – I'm also a cage fighter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It is different this time Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Is A Crash Inevitable? I think the question should be; " Is there any force out there to stop coming inevitable crash?" The chancellor of exchequer has been lying to millions for years, he has built up such a mess, he calls "economy", that is purely based on consumer spending, MEW & debt and it has come to the level that the UK Plc now proudly owes 75% debt of entire Europe. Millions have been busy being brainwashed with their paper profit, they couldn't or wouldn't see what Mr Miracle has been building, and the culture has been as long as the value of my house goes up; I don't mind paying record high council tax that has been going up higher than wages & inflation I don't mind cost of living going up each day I don't mind borrowing madnessly to fuel miracle economy as IR is historically low at 3.5% & will always stay low I don't mind having no pension thanks to miracle economy and speculation, who needs a pension? I have BTL instead I don't mind paying the highest taxes mr miracle gets from every penny I earn I don't mind the possibility of my kids being house-less I don't mind where the economy goes as I have a new car/lcd/holiday out of my MEW I don’t mind the highest inflation I don’t mind if nurses & police officers can’t afford a home in 90% of UK towns . . . . Fast forward 2007 interesting times ahead as the game is over we’ll see many people, in coming months, minding things they couldn’t care less 6-7 years ago then you'll have the answer of your question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badger Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 It's game over for property.I've seen it all before back in the 80s, this time it's worse because people are far more thick today. I have to agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leonard Hatred Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Last year on here people said prices would fall by the end of the year. Instead prices rose 10%. If prices crash 10%, they will only go down to what they were last year. Can you see prices crashing 10% this year? I doubt it very much. Get a Year 8 maths textbook, read the section on percentages, then come back and correct your post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backseat Economist Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 well just where exactly are these empty properties? In places where nobody wants to live? So if nobody wants them now, why would they want them later. I have yet to come across all these mysterious "empty" properties. Probably because you're looking at all the properties that were worth sod all ten years ago, and that YOU wouldn't have touched at that point which are now "worth" so much more. That's what you're looking at. You'll find these "mysterious" properties everywhere. Both good areas and bad. Have a look at the rental sections of your local press and EA windows for some help. GT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wait & See Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 well if having a house makes me successful, i'm probably more successful then you if you have no house Women like men who take risks, they dont like the little wimps who are to afraid to make big decisions Women also like men with plenty of REAL cash and a decent car. Homeowners these days are deeply boring people, because paying 80% of your take home for a garden shed is not having a life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigtoe Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 I am a new user and this is my first reply. I have been an optimist about the market until now (also bought properties last year - as a first time buyer). I analysed the fundamentals of the market recently, which significantly heightened my concerns. I do believe the fundamentals of this market is weakening. I can see a very difficult time for the market ahead (especialy from Q42007 onwards). This will be at least a correction, but possibly a crash. I have therefore put a property (bought last year) back onto the market yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Cash Posted April 19, 2007 Share Posted April 19, 2007 Women like men who take risks, they dont like the little wimps who are to afraid to make big decisions Yeah but dont you know that they leave if the risk goes tits up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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