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Now Last Night's Party's Over . . .


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Guest The_Oldie
Revelations?

Now I know you're a self-confessed naif on economic issues GOM, but don't embarrass yourself.

A central bank adjusting IRs to control the economy?

Who the hell would have thought it? :lol::lol:

And before anyone else points out that Eddie said it was unsustainable, well, yes it was. Which is why rates have now increased by 50%. Job done, in other words.

You lot take straw-clutching to a new level.

I disagree, everyone should take the time to view the video.

http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Player/index.aspx?Encoding=6495

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Know how you feel, inflation/deflation/stagflation/imagiflation- god knows and he's not tellin. All I do know is that everything I HAVE to pay/buy (non-luxuries) seems to go up little by little-transport,taxes,electric,gas ,foodetc.

Noticed even more by my small pensioned parents. Savings making next to nothing. I'm just hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Unsure times ahead me thinks- seems to have the same flavour of the last bust/recession though .

All that eighties yuppiedom then smash a crash. Ugh!

Yep, prepare for the worst - sort your assets out, and hold on tight. I've been reading some of the posts from the bulls on this site and the arrogance and stupidity of the some of the comments, especially those centred around London is just breathtaking. :o Financial heart of Europe, blah blah blah, diversity blah blah, immigration blah, I believe this, I believe that. They just don't realise that this does NOT last. It's transient - and is BASED on PSYCHOLOGY,not on the reality and fundamentals. It's classic bubble mentality.

My parents don't have a huge amount in the pot either - I'm watching them getting screwed over as well. :angry: They deserve more than this. I will not let the situation heppen to me. Spoke to my father a few weeks ago and he says there are scary parallels between now and the early 70's, but is also of the opinion that wage inflation won't sort this problem out. People are walking into a great huge lifetime equity trap, and they will be stuffed when things correct.

GT.

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Yep, prepare for the worst - sort your assets out, and hold on tight. I've been reading some of the posts from the bulls on this site and the arrogance and stupidity of the some of the comments, especially those centred around London is just breathtaking. :o Financial heart of Europe, blah blah blah, diversity blah blah, immigration blah, I believe this, I believe that. They just don't realise that this does NOT last. It's transient - and is BASED on PSYCHOLOGY,not on the reality and fundamentals. It's classic bubble mentality.

My parents don't have a huge amount in the pot either - I'm watching them getting screwed over as well. :angry: They deserve more than this. I will not let the situation heppen to me. Spoke to my father a few weeks ago and he says there are scary parallels between now and the early 70's, but is also of the opinion that wage inflation won't sort this problem out. People are walking into a great huge lifetime equity trap, and they will be stuffed when things correct.

GT.

Be that as it may, most people on here don't remember the last crash. They've been accustomed to seeing rise after rise in HPI. No one would have thought that it would've gotten this far but here we sit, safe in the knowledge that although a correction MUST come, there's no getting away from the fact that anyone who followed advice on HPC from the start is seriously out of pocket not to mention renting to their heart's discontent. It's all very well calling them stupid and arrogant but, frankly, history has proven them right and the bears consistently wrong.

I don't think being London is gonna make the slightest bit of difference short-term but that's cos I was around the last time and saw it for myself.

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Be that as it may, most people on here don't remember the last crash. They've been accustomed to seeing rise after rise in HPI. No one would have thought that it would've gotten this far but here we sit, safe in the knowledge that although a correction MUST come, there's no getting away from the fact that anyone who followed advice on HPC from the start is seriously out of pocket not to mention renting to their heart's discontent. It's all very well calling them stupid and arrogant but, frankly, history has proven them right and the bears consistently wrong.

I don't think being London is gonna make the slightest bit of difference short-term but that's cos I was around the last time and saw it for myself.

Yes, but we are where we are.

However, the fact that we haven't had the crash yet and are still waiting makes it more likely not less that we will have it, whether you wish to attribute this to hard economic facts or the stopped clock reasoning, I care not.

Purely by luck I wasn't burnt in the last crash but I easily could have been. This time Im older, wiser and much better informed. Anyone who wasn't around in the last crash or has forgotten it but is party to the discussions on this website should thank their lucky stars that they have this resource available to them to avoid making a financial mistake that could blight the rest of their lives.

If they choose to ignore all the warning signs then can you guess how much sympathy I will have for them?

Edited by Johnny Cash
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Guest grumpy-old-man
Be that as it may, most people on here don't remember the last crash. They've been accustomed to seeing rise after rise in HPI. No one would have thought that it would've gotten this far but here we sit, safe in the knowledge that although a correction MUST come, there's no getting away from the fact that anyone who followed advice on HPC from the start is seriously out of pocket not to mention renting to their heart's discontent. It's all very well calling them stupid and arrogant but, frankly, history has proven them right and the bears consistently wrong.

I don't think being London is gonna make the slightest bit of difference short-term but that's cos I was around the last time and saw it for myself.

see, sentiment is changing. ;)

edited - you use the terms "we" & "them", you changed camps recently or are you gradually fading it in.

Edited by grumpy-old-man
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Be that as it may, most people on here don't remember the last crash. They've been accustomed to seeing rise after rise in HPI. No one would have thought that it would've gotten this far but here we sit, safe in the knowledge that although a correction MUST come, there's no getting away from the fact that anyone who followed advice on HPC from the start is seriously out of pocket not to mention renting to their heart's discontent. It's all very well calling them stupid and arrogant but, frankly, history has proven them right and the bears consistently wrong.

I don't think being London is gonna make the slightest bit of difference short-term but that's cos I was around the last time and saw it for myself.

Yep, it's the 20yr social memory thing. Things have gotten out of all proportion, but I'm sure this was the same in 89/90 as well - history repeating. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and yes, if you'd listened to what was being banded around three/four years ago, then you too would be seriously out of pocket. But, then again, the BoE saw what was happeneing around the same time, because they knew what was happening to property prices in direct relation to slashing interest rates. The difference clearly shown is that they chose to sit on their hands and let other global factors influence rates policy. None of this is rocket science, if you do the research, then you see how the bubble started.

People are stupid for not looking at medium and long term trends (admittedly up, yes, but it depends on WHERE in the cycle you place yourself), doing the research and basing the biggest financial decision of their lives on the basis of what their parents and a few heavily biased TV programmes tell them and then arrogant enough to believe they've made a pile of money by doing f*** all and being "clever". You only make the money when you come out of the game. The BTL madness has not helped - but you can talk to the banks about this.

I'll say if before and I'll say it again - general financial education in this country is truly shocking and part of the reason why this situation has happened twice before and will no doubt happen again.

GT.

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see, sentiment is changing. ;)

edited - you use the terms "we" & "them", you changed camps recently or are you gradually fading it in.

No, not at all. Used "we" because whatever happens will affect us all. The term "them" was used referring to those "Backseat Economist" was calling stupid and arrogant which brings me to the next point : BE, not everyone is dialled into cycles, trends and the best time to buy in. That doesn't make them stupid, it just makes them normal. Whilst you and I might want to get in or out of a market at the time most likely to net us a bargain or realise a handsome profit, for the majority of people, it's a place to sleep, raise kids or what have you.

Lots of people have made big money flipping properties by following advice from property porn shows and many have lost money. Whether they got their advice from tv or from peer anecdotes is irrelevant. Everyone is influenced by something and the majority of people don't have the wherewithal to be "first" onto an idea. Frankly, judging by your tone, you should be a property millionaire . . . . just like PropertyGuru :lol:

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Guest grumpy-old-man
No, not at all. Used "we" because whatever happens will affect us all. The term "them" was used referring to those "Backseat Economist" was calling stupid and arrogant which brings me to the next point : BE, not everyone is dialled into cycles, trends and the best time to buy in. That doesn't make them stupid, it just makes them normal. Whilst you and I might want to get in or out of a market at the time most likely to net us a bargain or realise a handsome profit, for the majority of people, it's a place to sleep, raise kids or what have you.

Lots of people have made big money flipping properties by following advice from property porn shows and many have lost money. Whether they got their advice from tv or from peer anecdotes is irrelevant. Everyone is influenced by something and the majority of people don't have the wherewithal to be "first" onto an idea. Frankly, judging by your tone, you should be a property millionaire . . . . just like PropertyGuru :lol:

quite often when we speak or type, the words we use, speak louder than the message it tries to convey. ;)

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No, not at all. Used "we" because whatever happens will affect us all. The term "them" was used referring to those "Backseat Economist" was calling stupid and arrogant which brings me to the next point : BE, not everyone is dialled into cycles, trends and the best time to buy in. That doesn't make them stupid, it just makes them normal. Whilst you and I might want to get in or out of a market at the time most likely to net us a bargain or realise a handsome profit, for the majority of people, it's a place to sleep, raise kids or what have you.

Lots of people have made big money flipping properties by following advice from property porn shows and many have lost money. Whether they got their advice from tv or from peer anecdotes is irrelevant. Everyone is influenced by something and the majority of people don't have the wherewithal to be "first" onto an idea. Frankly, judging by your tone, you should be a property millionaire . . . . just like PropertyGuru :lol:

The system isn't perfect and not everyone can see what is sometimes staring them in the face - but it comes back to my final point which is the lack of someone, anyone or anything to guide people and help them make the right decisions, both for themselves and the country as a whole. If you want me to back track and say people aren't stupid, well, yes, maybe that's being a bit unfair, I'll concede that.

I'm far from being a millionaire (I'd be called Smug Arrogant F*** otherwise). which is why I gave my name as Backseat Economist - I did not and still don't have the financial education to give me the basis on which to make informed rational judgements and decisons about what and how I should be utilising what savings I have. (But I know a lot more, thanks to this site than I did before). I'm coming from an angle where I've inadvertantly had to come out of the market having previously been a willing participant in watching house prices rocket. After all that's happenend, any delusions of grandeur about making money off property have been well and truly dispelled. I've got no wish with my money other than for it to retain it's purchasing power. This is what people need to look at.

I've seen it from both sides, so I'd like to think I can give a balanced argument about how this is all unfolding. I've got A-Levels in Maths and English and a Physics degree (not that it did me much good) so the bloke upstairs decided to give me probably more than the usual quota of intelligence avaiable. I feel like I can give more to people - and yet no one wants to listen to me or see the balanced side of things. My tone comes off as being pretty patronising and sanctimonious, but's that's because I'm angry at myself for being so complicit and stupid in the first place, when I should have applied my intelligence to understand what's going on. It seems obvious to me now, so when people trot out the same old lilnes, well, frankly, it's like a red rag to a bull. :blink:

I'm really a nice bloke....honest. ;)

Edited by Backseat Economist
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Was in the last crash and it feels painfully all too similar. I'm no genius but all this comfort with huge debt seems so abnormal to me. Like 'Stockholm syndrome' only absurd from the outside. The longer it goes on the more folk feel comforted. Like chilbirth really you forget how bad it was first time round and go do it again.(two kids myself so Guilty!)

But I got hit hard in the last crash, too young,too stupid, just cannot let myself go there again. Feel very sad that it's all happening again.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Revelations?

Now I know you're a self-confessed naif on economic issues GOM, but don't embarrass yourself.

A central bank adjusting IRs to control the economy?

Who the hell would have thought it? :lol::lol:

And before anyone else points out that Eddie said it was unsustainable, well, yes it was. Which is why rates have now increased by 50%. Job done, in other words.

You lot take straw-clutching to a new level.

the problem is CO that no matter what happens, what revelations come out, you have convinced yourself that you have made the right decision for your sons house purchase, so you have become narrow minded imo. :(

when this hpc is in the media/papers every day you will just disappear & your son will be asking you some very pertinent questions. ;)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Revelations?

Now I know you're a self-confessed naif on economic issues GOM, but don't embarrass yourself.

A central bank adjusting IRs to control the economy?

Who the hell would have thought it? :lol::lol:

And before anyone else points out that Eddie said it was unsustainable, well, yes it was. Which is why rates have now increased by 50%. Job done, in other words.

You lot take straw-clutching to a new level.

you accuse me of "straw clutching" with regards the latest BofE revelations.....unbelievable!! :blink::blink:

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you accuse me of "straw clutching" with regards the latest BofE revelations.....unbelievable!! :blink::blink:

GOM, it is not a revelation that central banks use interest rates to avoid a recession. They reduced them to 3.5%. This was unsustainable, so they raised them back to 5.25%.

You seem to think you've unearthed something spectacular. Tell me, why did you think they reduced them to 3.5% in the first place.

Go and look for another "revelation" if it gives you comfort. Here's one for you: estate agents ramp house prices up. There, now it's out in the open, they'll stop doing it and you'll get your crash. :rolleyes:

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GOM, it is not a revelation that central banks use interest rates to avoid a recession. They reduced them to 3.5%. This was unsustainable, so they raised them back to 5.25%.

That's a nice angle you've thought up there, CO. You're by far the smartest 'plateauist' on here, even though it took you a day or two to come up with it.

Four problems with your theory:

1) Please watch the video. It is abundantly clear that Lord George is talking about something that remains to be sorted out.

2) Your 'recession averted' theory, if correct, has revolutionised the world of economics: No more boom and bust ever again.

3) Lord George talks about a debt fuelled consumer spending boom. The debt is still booming: http://www.creditaction.org.uk/debtstats.htm

4) You're ignoring what this thread has eloquently explained: Current Economic Course, The Big Picture. If there is something about the 'Current Economic Course' you have misunderstood, may I suggest you post your questions in this thread, where I guess ?...! will be happy to explain.

Edited by LargelyIgnorant
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