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Now Last Night's Party's Over . . .


tenroom
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Ok now the bears' euphoria's subsided and they've all slept on yesterday's "Eddiegate" statement, what do they think is actually gonna happen ? Have we seen the last of the piffling 0.25% hike in IRs - is it 0.5% or 1% chunks from now on ??

Edited by tenroom
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Ok now the bears' euphoria's subsided and they've all slept on yesterday's "Eddiegate" statement, what do they think is actually gonna happen ? Have we seen the last of the piffling 0.25% hike in IRs - is it 0.5% or 1% chunks from now on ??

Sadly I am doubtful whether much has changed. I don't think they will change the increases/decreases to anything other than +-0 .25%. From the sounds of it I think perhaps the changes will be more frequent but whether there is a trend upwards or not will depend on inflation. I expect the MPC won't want to cause too many shocks especially in an ever more fragile system. They are going to try their best to avoid a crash, avoid a recession whilst still keeping a lid on the mickey mouse CPI figures.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
It's still going to be 0.25% chunks every quarter of so.

I've been saying we'll see 6% this year and I'm sticking to it.

The thing to REALLY watch is the impact on sentiment on the public. My prediction is every hike will register like a sledge hammer blow in the press.

I also said this last year & I'm sticking with it. After yesterdays revelations we definetly won't have long to wait now. :D

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Ok now the bears' euphoria's subsided and they've all slept on yesterday's "Eddiegate" statement, what do they think is actually gonna happen ? Have we seen the last of the piffling 0.25% hike in IRs - is it 0.5% or 1% chunks from now on ??

They're probably too terrified to raise more than 0.25% at a time. My guess is that the BoE's proxy made this statement yesterday because the unsustainable consumer credit boom is to imminently crash. Eddie volunteered to be fall guy, whilst the civil service is making it eminently clear that GordEnron is a stalinist Treasury dictator, so it's his fault too. Merv voted against the IR cut in 2005, so he gets to have cups of tea and quiet chats with Cameron when the sheeple revolt against Gordo, the main architect of our demise. It's all a bit 'Yes, Minister' isn't it?

My guess is that IRs will revert to historical norms and the best the country can hope for is to avoid a depression with a mere recession. The BoE is about to experimentally prove that avoiding a bust just brews up a bigger one in the future. With the wealth transference to Asia happening at the same time as the bursting of the consumer credit bubble, getting away with it lightly looks unlikely.

GorEnron's decadal firesale: Houses 50% cheaper by 2012.

edit: Actually, the more I think about it, I already believed in 50% off before the BoE endorsed the views of long term HPC posters. Coming round to Pluto's 70% off.

Edited by LargelyIgnorant
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Guest grumpy-old-man
They're probably too terrified to raise more than 0.25% at a time. My guess is that the BoE's proxy made this statement yesterday because the unsustainable consumer credit boom is to imminently crash. Eddie volunteered to be fall guy, whilst the civil service is making it eminently clear that GordEnron is a stalinist Treasury dictator, so it's his fault too. Merv voted against the IR cut in 2005, so he gets to have cups of tea and quiet chats with Cameron when the sheeple revolt against Gordo, the main architect of our demise. It's all a bit 'Yes, Minister' isn't it?

My guess is that IRs will revert to historical norms and the best the country can hope for is to avoid a depression with a mere recession. The BoE is about to experimentally prove that avoiding a bust just brews up a bigger one in the future. With the wealth transference to Asia happening at the same time as the bursting of the consumer credit bubble, getting away with it lightly looks unlikely.

GorEnron's decadal firesale: Houses 50% cheaper by 2012.

edit: Actually, the more I think about it, I already believed in 50% off before the BoE endorsed the views of long term HPC posters. Coming round to Pluto's 70% off.

summed up nicely imo. :)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Just as well then. You've only got 10 days left of Q1 2007. :P

hello CO,

I was going to start a where's CO thread yesterday off the back of the BOE revelations.

what are your thoughts ??

Q1 2007. B):P

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Guest grumpy-old-man
IRs have risen 50% since the full effect of that policy was put in place (i.e. 3.5% IRs) Your "hence current house prices" is not as logical a link as you've implied.

do you still think that there isn't going to be any crash in the housing market then ?

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do you still think that there isn't going to be any crash in the housing market then ?

No crash in nominal prices is my prediction.

A 50% increase in IRs didn't cause one, and I don't expect IRs to go much higher. I think they will fall in late 2008, after hitting a peak of 5.5% this year.

I think prices will stagnate on average.

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Gosh, I hadn't realised at the time that UK and US had reduced IRs to stave off a recession. :rolleyes:

Now we know that, IRs will surely be put up to 9% :lol:

IRs have risen 50% since the full effect of that policy was put in place (i.e. 3.5% IRs) Your "hence current house prices" is not as logical a link as you've implied.

Still pi55ing into the prevailing wind CO?

Good luck with that.

Looks like you/your sons/daughters decision to buy in 2005 was a very bad one, eh.

4800 posts! Now thats dedication. Keep on posting...youre 'making a difference'.

I'm sure the banks will thank you for your loyalty ;)

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Guest grumpy-old-man
Yes, terrible mistake :unsure:

are you admitting then it was a mistake or being sarcastic ??

I am really curious to see if people like yourself change their opinions based on "new evidence" (BOE ;) ) or will simply still keep on denying the inevitable ??

edited - & before you say it, I don't care what he has announced in the budget, it's all falling apart this year without a doubt. :lol::lol:

Edited by grumpy-old-man
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are you admitting then it was a mistake or being sarcastic ??

I am really curious to see if people like yourself change their opinions based on "new evidence" (BOE ;) ) or will simply still keep on denying the inevitable ??

Sarcastic of course.

My lad is happy in his home, he'd decorated and improved it nicely (with a bit of help from Dad), he can easily afford the repayments, even if IRs rose a fair bit. It's a nicer home than I could afford at his age, in a nicer area. Basically he's getting on with his life without having to think about house prices. He'd be better off if prices didn't rise further, because it will help him trade up to something even better in the future. The UK indices show a rise of about 12% since he bought, although I don't think they've risen that much in our area.

I know many on here wish him ill-luck, but he's as happy as Larry.

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edited - & before you say it, I don't care what he has announced in the budget, it's all falling apart this year without a doubt. :lol::lol:

If you turn out to be right and me wrong I'll give you your "props" in due course.

To be fair though, I'm still right at the moment. People like your goodself could still be saying the exact same thing in 5 years time. They were saying it 4 years ago.

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Guest grumpy-old-man
If you turn out to be right and me wrong I'll give you your "props" in due course.

To be fair though, I'm still right at the moment. People like your goodself could still be saying the exact same thing in 5 years time. They were saying it 4 years ago.

your sentiment has changed already, wait until after the IR rise next month & the new revelations that will start appearing as the cracks grow wider & deeper. :ph34r:

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