R K Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 All this talk about the intricacies of TA, I don't know. Sheesh guys, it's a lot simpler than that. I've said it before and I'll say it again: 70% (some days 100%!) of gold intraday movement is simply dollar forex noise. Even last Friday, with its much vaunted gold 'price drop', it was mostly forex related (yes, even the drop). Pull up Friday's 24-hour charts for gold, EUR/$ and GBP/$ and compare them if you don't believe me. If you want to accurately analyse gold movements on any day you need to strip out the forex noise before you start analysing. Not sure how you do that but I can guarantee you'll be left with very little to look at bar a slightly twitchy horizontal line. Alternatively, just do TA on the dollar/GBP exchange rate and its resistance levels and buy that instead - you'll probably make as much money. Longer term, of course, there are up and down trends in the forex-corrected gold price which are worth studying, plus now and then market openings will introduce a correction factor up or down, plus there's the mysterious early afternoon smack-downs. But as far as I can see most of the rest is forex noise and frankly not worth time analysing from gold's point of view. I wouldn't disagree. If you looked at the Euro it would more or less mirror the gold graph over the last 6 months or so. Many asset classes are of course inter-related in this way to a lesser of greater extent. USD/EURO/OIL/GOLD/DOW etc...I have no interest in relative gold strength per se since it is just one more asset class for me. In contrast to those holding bullion for either investment or insurance or religious reasons. TA is still helpful for identifying over-bought conditions and buying dips, such as those exhibited on Errol's graphs I would have thought. Friday was a little different I would say since it took in a new intraday high swiftly followed by a lower low for a total fall of 3.5% during the course of trading. That would indicate a failed upside break and suggest it will go lower, (although there seems support around 905ish). It doesn't guarantee it of course, and it may be the result of manipulation or possibly because someone knows something is about to break. That will become apparent over this week. I'm still short in the near-term until that is resolved. High 900s still looks possible though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twatmangle Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 (edited) Even last Friday, with its much vaunted gold 'price drop', it was mostly forex related (yes, even the drop). Pull up Friday's 24-hour charts for gold, EUR/$ and GBP/$ and compare them if you don't believe me. Not so. Friday's gold price (GBP) Often, yes I agree it's just noise, but not Friday Edited February 3, 2008 by twatmangle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uro_who Posted February 3, 2008 Share Posted February 3, 2008 All this talk about the intricacies of TA, I don't know. Sheesh guys, it's a lot simpler than that. I've said it before and I'll say it again: 70% (some days 100%!) of gold intraday movement is simply dollar forex noise. Even last Friday, with its much vaunted gold 'price drop', it was mostly forex related (yes, even the drop). Pull up Friday's 24-hour charts for gold, EUR/$ and GBP/$ and compare them if you don't believe me. If you want to accurately analyse gold movements on any day you need to strip out the forex noise before you start analysing. Not sure how you do that but I can guarantee you'll be left with very little to look at bar a slightly twitchy horizontal line. Alternatively, just do TA on the dollar/GBP exchange rate and its resistance levels and buy that instead - you'll probably make as much money. Longer term, of course, there are up and down trends in the forex-corrected gold price which are worth studying, plus now and then market openings will introduce a correction factor up or down, plus there's the mysterious early afternoon smack-downs. But as far as I can see most of the rest is forex noise and frankly not worth time analysing from gold's point of view. I don't disagree but again it doesn't matter what the causative agent is, TA still helps you identify the boundaries. It told the players in the market that $905 ish was going to be support, so I know where to exit or if I missed the fall, where to consider to buy on the dip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tinecu Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Prepare for the surge: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/comi...45B887AEA9C8%7D The coming gold surgeCommentary: There are plenty of factors aligned to drive prices upBy Sean Brodrick, Money and MarketsLast update: 12:01 a.m. EST Feb. 4, 2008 JUPITER, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- Gold has enjoyed a great run over the past few years, but it hasn't been a straight path. There have been enough dips and outright plunges to make gold traders feel like they're riding the devil's own roller coaster. But one strategy has worked time and time again: Buy the dips. It takes courage to buy when everyone else is selling. But if you do your research, you can act with confidence that even if gold dips lower than you're buying it, the upside potential is huge. En vera Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Sixpack Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_Gs8-IVNxU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 The idiots seem to start dumping gold now. Could very soon be a perfect buying opportunity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoami Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Not so.Friday's gold price (GBP) Often, yes I agree it's just noise, but not Friday Not sure what you're saying here. Friday's EUR/$ and GBP/$ graphs are surprisingly similar to this one. Strip out the difference and gold hardly twitched. In its benign state, gold is essentially an ex$ basket-of-currencies substitute. The only time it veers away from this is when irrational demand or dislike drives it additionally up or down, but this deviation from forex rates happens a lot less often than people seem to think. When it's bubbly and overbought, as it is now, it will still follow the underlying forex trend but with a greater amplitude to the swings - a bit like Asian markets over-reacting to Wall Street prices. Throw in the occasional large sell or buy spike and that's normally about it. But because it isn't a trading currency, it can also be subject occasionally to the laws of commodity bubbles, as now. Because of this unique, dual role, its behaviour in a bubble tends to show spurts of irrational price inflation followed by quite long periods of forex-sympathetic sideways trading, followed by more demand spurts, etc, etc. This is what we've been seeing for the last few months and are likely to see for some more until the fog clears and the world can agree on whether the inflation or the deflation flag has been raised. Just make sure you're out before the fog clears, unless you've got a very good nose for the future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 $898.50 What a surge that is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charliemouse Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 £898.50 Nothing in this world is 100% correct guaranteed. Accept death and taxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 first post ever on the gold thread (I think? ) - so hello everyone I have come to a decision that I do need some of the yellow stuff in my portfolio, and am looking at buying whilst the price is dipping however, I would prefer (I think at the mo) to buy gold related shares (mining companies etc). sorry for my general ignorance on gold but I would like some pointers re. gold related companies thanks in advance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PiXeL8r Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 I have been having a thought about the current gold cartels actions and am interested to see if anyone else thinks I could be correct. I think the cartel could be trying to form a classic TA head and shoulders pattern, to scare investors out of gold. If my thinking is correct we could see 870 before a tick up to the next shoulder at 900. What do people think, could they be trying to use TA against us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 $898.50 What a surge that is How smug? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 What do people think, could they be trying to use TA against us? Well as I don't believe in the mystic magic moonbeam runes of TA they can try all they like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uro_who Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 I have been having a thought about the current gold cartels actions and am interested to see if anyone else thinks I could be correct.I think the cartel could be trying to form a classic TA head and shoulders pattern, to scare investors out of gold. If my thinking is correct we could see 870 before a tick up to the next shoulder at 900. What do people think, could they be trying to use TA against us? I don't know about the cartel but I had the same thought about the head and shoulders! If it comes my strategy will be to keep my physical holdings, hedge electronically and buy more at the end of the dip with the electronic cash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uro_who Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Well as I don't believe in the mystic magic moonbeam runes of TA they can try all they like You might not but find a good gold chart, look at the 30 minutes chart. Draw a line from the previous low at 22nd Jan to todays low. You'll then find that the bottom of todays all of the 5min/1min chart dips run along that line, if it breaks that line it'll take another leg down. the point is someone does believe it and that has its own effect. Sure its voodoo but heh some of us even believe in God (Allah, Buddah etc) and that similarly has an external effect on human behaviour. I'm not sure if TA measures human behaviour or delivers it. But somethings happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 I have been having a thought about the current gold cartels actions and am interested to see if anyone else thinks I could be correct.I think the cartel could be trying to form a classic TA head and shoulders pattern, to scare investors out of gold. ... If my thinking is correct we could see 870 before a tick up to the next shoulder at 900. What do people think, could they be trying to use TA against us? I am sure they would like to. But it could be that Russia and China simply say "Thank you!" for everything below $850, laying a rock-solid floor underneath the price. Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compounded Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 I have been having a thought about the current gold cartels actions and am interested to see if anyone else thinks I could be correct.I think the cartel could be trying to form a classic TA head and shoulders pattern, to scare investors out of gold. If my thinking is correct we could see 870 before a tick up to the next shoulder at 900. What do people think, could they be trying to use TA against us? This thought has struck me too. If the cartel really exists and are trying to suppress the price, deliberately creating bearish TA charts is what I would do in their position. Infact it seems almost inconceivable that they would not try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R K Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 How smug? Not smug at all. I get used to being called an idiot and insane. Which seems a bit odd since I am up $140 on gold since it hit $915 3 weeks ago. Whereas gold is slightly lower. If that's what idiocy and insanity brings then I shall stick with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PiXeL8r Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 This thought has struck me too.If the cartel really exists and are trying to suppress the price, deliberately creating bearish TA charts is what I would do in their position. Infact it seems almost inconceivable that they would not try. I have a lot more cash to invest, but think I will wait a while and see if I am correct. Been buying recently on the daily smackdowns. Recently found an old article (2003) by James Turk on evidence that the cartel exist. Might be worth a read - More Proof Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timm Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Thread Title: Gold, And why it will go the same way as property. Is this your current prediction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
enrieb Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 first post ever on the gold thread (I think? ) - so hello everyoneI have come to a decision that I do need some of the yellow stuff in my portfolio, and am looking at buying whilst the price is dipping however, I would prefer (I think at the mo) to buy gold related shares (mining companies etc). sorry for my general ignorance on gold but I would like some pointers re. gold related companies thanks in advance Sorry for the slow reply, not quite sure how you have come to the decision that you need gold in your portfolio. If your coming to that decision based on lots or research into the physical gold market and gold mining shares then it is unlikely that you would be asking for pointers so, lets assume that you have not looking into gold much. Things that you should be aware of is that the gold market can make very sudden shifts up and down perhaps 10-30% in a day. This can scare the hell out of investors especially if they are not aware of these type of moves. Other thing I am wondering is why you want to invest in gold? is it to make a great deal of cash or are you just looking to protect your purchasing power? I am invested in gold in the main just to protect my purchasing power as we face increased inflation over the next few years (though others say there will be deflation). If gold were to out perform the conservative expectations then that would be a fantastic bonus and some here say it could go far higher, but I am not banking on it doing so, yet I do see the potential. Finical Sense News has plenty of information about gold and gold shares, and their are many audio episodes you can download about investing in gold mining shares, best advice I heard about shares is to be diversified into about 10 different companies, as a mining share can plummet over night due to a cave in or being nationalized. I am not really a gold shares person at this stage I prefer physical. The standard advice it to have between 5 and 10 percent of you assets in gold. There is a thread in gold and metals here http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=54237 A lot of the hyperlinks don't work anymore they send you to some weird search engine, but you can still get there by deleting the first part of the link and clicking refresh. Just delete this part of any bad hyperlinks you come across http://www.http.com// Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldfinger Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Good Cartel-smackdown action at the moment. Take your money from your RBS account and buy gold for cheap now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiger Woods? Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 I have been having a thought about the current gold cartels actions and am interested to see if anyone else thinks I could be correct.I think the cartel could be trying to form a classic TA head and shoulders pattern, to scare investors out of gold. If my thinking is correct we could see 870 before a tick up to the next shoulder at 900. What do people think, could they be trying to use TA against us? I've been having similar thoughts - certainly (intraday) today gold has been moving between fibonnaci levels in a very convincing TA way, including a nice double top at 61.8% fib retrace from the drop just a little while ago. On longer time scale, I suspect a drop to about 860 (daily). If it goes below that, then about 820, then 790 (Fib levels from daily August to peak, i.e. 650ish to 927ish). I'll probably place a long at 860, but this depends on how the US economic facade appears at the time. Anyhow, I'm more or less out of spread betting for a while until the recent Indian summer seems over. I suspect this year may be like the last in the sense that we have a wobble at the beginning but it will take a few months before things really get going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sossij Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Good Cartel-smackdown action at the moment. Ha ha! Nice one, BV account recharging for this weeks $wag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loggy Posted February 4, 2008 Share Posted February 4, 2008 Thread Title:Gold, And why it will go the same way as property. Is this your current prediction? Its lagging behind the house price curve, but has risen nearly four fold over ten years so will have to correct sometime Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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