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It Is Friday And House Prices Are Supposedly Up Again


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I haven't seen the graph recently but there was an image from the telegraph or somewhere that documented the falls in London, they were real and worst in places like Chiswick and below. Chelseas etc did quite well but places like Clapham, Stockwell and the gentrified rougher areas were slaughtered.

I was there, I saw it and lived it. Put an end to the no real falls myth.

This will do and don't forget this figs. are not adjusted for inflation, which was over 40% for the years in question.

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London.jpg

London_jpg.htm

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I am a bit sick of this by now and really thinking I should have mortgaged up to the neck and moved up the ladder in 2003. I know all the arguments for a hpc and I believe them in theory but this bear has had enough. I am really now wondering if it will actually happen...

S.

Scooter,

Look at the stats on the front page of this web site, they dont lie.

YoY rises across the board being reported.

Historically it works out as 10% YoYoYoYoYoYoYoYoY etc

The "predictions" part of the front page doesnt help you much either.

All the recent predictions point upward and you have to go back to 2005 before you get somebody predicting a fall.

So if you believe in stats then leave the UK behind and don't look back in anger.

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Scooter,

Look at the stats on the front page of this web site, they dont lie.

YoY rises across the board being reported.

Historically it works out as 10% YoYoYoYoYoYoYoYoY etc

The nationwide graph of average house prices shows YoY rises ranging from +30odd percent just before the last crash to -11 percentish during the last crash.

These are not adjusted for inflation. That's prices falling at 11% per year nominal. National average. Nationwide building society.

Look at the stats. They don't lie.

The economic fundamentals that underlay that crash were more beneficial than our current situation by an order of magnitude. Our crash will be in the history books for generations to come. The chapter will be entitled, "What were they thinking?"

Edited by TTID
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What I don't get is that if so many people are as smart in calling the market as they loudly profess to be, surely they could have got in in 2003 or before and be calling when to get out.

I have to say it tickles me somewhat to read about "get into gold/yen/far eastern dog turds, I am" by people who are effectively giving investment advice to others but missed the biggest bull run on investment around (or called when to get out of it so wrong).

I also wonder just how much people have got into these exotics - either you all earn a fortune and can aford to play, and if you are all as successful as you say you are, then you could surely be affording to buy a house as it would be chicken feed and you'd have the money to ride out any corrections.

I also find it intriguing that there's a bit of reverse schadenfrude going on - the renters smug about the examples they can pick of prices that are falling and the bulls laughing (metaphorically I hope) at the renters who ignored the obvious and continued to rent because they had convinced themselves it was true.

Myself, I leveraged up significantly in 2004, I bought very carefully having done LOTS of research, I negotiated like a barsteward on a house that needed significant work to bring it to [my] standard. I do see lots of parts of Britain collapsing - but mainly flats and inner cities - I am bemused by the landlords who say rents will rise (because they want them too) - I have an in to one of the major urban flat builders - they are offering 10-15% off (unadvertised) to single buyers at the moment - I still would not touch them with a bargepole. However, show me an area with good schools, solid 3 and four bed houses with gardens, garages and little crime and with good transport links to places with hig paying stable jobs and I'll consider buying after doing my own research - I can still see rental yields in the right places - people actually want to live there and will pay for the privilege.

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