Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
ca-uk

Things Have Gone Crazy Since December

Recommended Posts

I've been around here for quite a while, and been checking rightmove in the same area for about 3 years now.

My anecdotal is that the market over 2006 remained pretty static around here, most things were taking a few months to sell, a lot had prices reduced, and a lot that went to sale agreed or sold re-appeared on the market.

However, from mid December until now then things have gone pretty active. Most houses that come on in the 3 and 4 bed bracket seem to sell in a couple of days to a week.

Not only that, but asking prices jumped by 10% - 15% since December.

For example, this house, had it been for sale in November would have been about £270k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-670...=2&tr_t=buy

Notice the essential MEWed SLK and Range Rover.

What got my goat about this one, and what prompted my anecdotal is the description as 'Executive Style Property'. This is housing estate fodder, in no way executive. Previously, EAs would only describe a house as executive if it was non-estate.

Last year a five bedroomed version of this house was for sale, probably for about 9 months and after a couple of price cuts and attempts at renting it out then it sold. The last asking price i saw for it was £285k, so if this 3 bedroom version sells, and sells quickly, it shows me that the market has indeed gone mad again.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-143...=2&tr_t=buy

My final bellweather is this house, now been on the market for over a year. It is a house near some friends of mine and is a dump inside. Basically, it is a bog standard 3 bed semi that in standard form would fetch £179k tops (that's the most that one with a conservatory has gone for in the area). This house has had a loft conversion, but in the process lost one of the bedrooms. It also has a strange annexe/shower room downstairs.

It's currently up for £230k and £233k. It started life at £230k, after about 3 months as it was obviously was too cheap and hence not selling, then the owner upped it to £235k. Realising it must have been the combination of it being too cheap, plus the agent being crap they swapped agents. So on and so forth brings us back to today and £230k and £233k with two agents.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-144...=6&tr_t=buy

If this house sells i know the market is completely crazy and it's time for me to throw in the towel.

I'm hoping that this is the last rush of lemmings before a correction.

Has anyone else noticed similar pattern since December?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
it was obviously was too cheap and hence not selling, then the owner upped it to £235k.

I assume that this is sarcasm? I know it's possible that somewhere can be priced too cheap, but I wouldn’t have thought it of the one in question.

There are loads of houses on the market that are over-priced. I've seen some that have sat on the market for over a year, as vendors think they can 'cash-in'. Many add to the apparent shortage of supply, as they sit empty - particularly BTLs where tenants have not renewed and the place has had a makeover and the landlord is lining it up to realise his paper profits.

I read in and article on the newsblog that some owners don’t even let tenants near the place - they buy it as BTL, but don’t let it, just put it up for silly money and wait for a bigger fool to come along. I had my doubts, but mentioned this to someone (not an HPCer) today, who said he knows a BTL landlord who does just that - he puts them up to rent for a while at silly rents in the meantime, so no one moves in...

:blink::huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I assume that this is sarcasm? I know it's possible that somewhere can be priced too cheap, but I wouldn’t have thought it of the one in question.

yep, it was sarcasm all the way.

that's why this house is my yardstick of how loony things have got - if it sells for any more than 190k then i know it's time for me to reconsider my hpc dreams..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been around here for quite a while, and been checking rightmove in the same area for about 3 years now.

My anecdotal is that the market over 2006 remained pretty static around here, most things were taking a few months to sell, a lot had prices reduced, and a lot that went to sale agreed or sold re-appeared on the market.

However, from mid December until now then things have gone pretty active. Most houses that come on in the 3 and 4 bed bracket seem to sell in a couple of days to a week.

Not only that, but asking prices jumped by 10% - 15% since December.

For example, this house, had it been for sale in November would have been about £270k:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-670...=2&tr_t=buy

Notice the essential MEWed SLK and Range Rover.

What got my goat about this one, and what prompted my anecdotal is the description as 'Executive Style Property'. This is housing estate fodder, in no way executive. Previously, EAs would only describe a house as executive if it was non-estate.

Last year a five bedroomed version of this house was for sale, probably for about 9 months and after a couple of price cuts and attempts at renting it out then it sold. The last asking price i saw for it was £285k, so if this 3 bedroom version sells, and sells quickly, it shows me that the market has indeed gone mad again.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-143...=2&tr_t=buy

My final bellweather is this house, now been on the market for over a year. It is a house near some friends of mine and is a dump inside. Basically, it is a bog standard 3 bed semi that in standard form would fetch £179k tops (that's the most that one with a conservatory has gone for in the area). This house has had a loft conversion, but in the process lost one of the bedrooms. It also has a strange annexe/shower room downstairs.

It's currently up for £230k and £233k. It started life at £230k, after about 3 months as it was obviously was too cheap and hence not selling, then the owner upped it to £235k. Realising it must have been the combination of it being too cheap, plus the agent being crap they swapped agents. So on and so forth brings us back to today and £230k and £233k with two agents.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-144...=6&tr_t=buy

If this house sells i know the market is completely crazy and it's time for me to throw in the towel.

I'm hoping that this is the last rush of lemmings before a correction.

Has anyone else noticed similar pattern since December?

same in plymouth about 5% up this year alraedy on top of the 15% last year - bets merv gets busy very soon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
same in plymouth about 5% up this year alraedy on top of the 15% last year - bets merv gets busy very soon

But a ¼ or ½ percentage rise from Merv wont do it.

The supply of cheap money needs to be stemmed if its to have a big effect on house prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But a ¼ or ½ percentage rise from Merv wont do it.

The supply of cheap money needs to be stemmed if its to have a big effect on house prices.

it does strike me that either there is a stabilising influence (be it demographic [most likely, in which case could take 10-30 years to gradually unwind, unfortunately for us] or new paradigm [i just don't believe in this flat world nonsense]), or, if no stabilising influnce, then a hairline trigger; once the loan defaults really pick up speed, with only a small increase of irs, then the lenders will reduce the money supply spontaneously according to their borrowing rules, and it will collapse painfully, and even dropped interest rates will not be able to stop it when it starts (an unfortunate example being Japan, but they ramped irs too aggressivley, so there is a difference), as it's due to a positive feedback loan-quality mechanism that the BoE has no control over. The latter is a bit scary, but people, and many (tho not all) financial institutions, and many many people, are agents to this possible boom-bust phenomenon

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
it does strike me that either there is a stabilising influence (be it demographic [most likely, in which case could take 10-30 years to gradually unwind, unfortunately for us] or new paradigm [i just don't believe in this flat world nonsense]), or, if no stabilising influnce, then a hairline trigger; once the loan defaults really pick up speed, with only a small increase of irs, then the lenders will reduce the money supply spontaneously according to their borrowing rules, and it will collapse painfully, and even dropped interest rates will not be able to stop it when it starts (an unfortunate example being Japan, but they ramped irs too aggressivley, so there is a difference), as it's due to a positive feedback loan-quality mechanism that the BoE has no control over. The latter is a bit scary, but people, and many (tho not all) financial institutions, and many many people, are agents to this possible boom-bust phenomenon

Do you consider that loan defaults are the one hairline trigger that is required for the bubble to burst? I personally dont think one factor will do it on its own.

What is required to trigger a panic / crash, IMHO, is a combination of factors.

Say a few ¼ or ½ % IR increases coupled with even a small tightening of the money supply and a change of buyer sentiment coupled with say a change of direction on greenfield developments, or brown field restrictions or immigration from governement - Tony/Gordon - Conservatives or a hung parliament.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 332 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.