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Daily Express Headline Today.ir`s To Soar! (0.25%)

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I almost forgive them for their blatant property ramping with this article. How the hell can they expect to have any credibility, when comparing todays headline with the one 2 days ago. Good to see it though,especially from this rag. Also nice to see their favourite "SOAR" word being used in another context,other than hpi.

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I almost forgive them for their blatant property ramping with this article. How the hell can they expect to have any credibility, when comparing todays headline with the one 2 days ago. Good to see it though,especially from this rag. Also nice to see their favourite "SOAR" word being used in another context,other than hpi.

Hang on I think its a fake - where is the picture of Royalty on the front page?! <_<

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Soar? :lol::lol::lol:

If Merv hikes 3 more times it will add less than 100 pounds to a mortgage (3 x 32).

In a miracle economy there is no restriction placed on the amount of borrowing. The limits simply rise alongside HPI. That is why the 5 X and 6 X loans are being used more and more. Debt is illusory and house prices are real in Gordon's world (but not in Merv's).

IR are useless against HPI unless they are raised sufficiently high that they get AHEAD of the inflation surve. HPI up 9%--then jack rates up to 9% + 1%.

Tighten credit and its all over.

Edited by Realistbear

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I almost forgive them for their blatant property ramping with this article. How the hell can they expect to have any credibility, when comparing todays headline with the one 2 days ago. Good to see it though,especially from this rag. Also nice to see their favourite "SOAR" word being used in another context,other than hpi.

The article makes some reasonable points but does obviously let itself down with words like "reeling" and "soar". I cant genuinely believe that households are forced into starvation because their fuel bills have gone up fifty quid a month. I know people will struggle if they come off fixed rates and their fuel bills go up, but they knew that the fixed rates would end at some point. Lets face it, they can always get new ones - albeit at a higher rate than 3 years ago.

I see from the BBC today that retail spending in Jan is well down - presumably this means that the largely disposable income that goes on discretionary spending is now going on fuel and mortgage payments. This hardly suggests people are being herded into workhouses.

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The article makes some reasonable points but does obviously let itself down with words like "reeling" and "soar". I cant genuinely believe that households are forced into starvation because their fuel bills have gone up fifty quid a month. I know people will struggle if they come off fixed rates and their fuel bills go up, but they knew that the fixed rates would end at some point. Lets face it, they can always get new ones - albeit at a higher rate than 3 years ago.

I see from the BBC today that retail spending in Jan is well down - presumably this means that the largely disposable income that goes on discretionary spending is now going on fuel and mortgage payments. This hardly suggests people are being herded into workhouses.

To quote Mr. Micawber:

"Annual income: Twenty pounds, Annual expenditure Nineteen pounds nineteen and sixpence: result happiness. Annual income Twenty pounds, Annual expenditure: Twenty pounds ought and sixpence: result misery"

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The article makes some reasonable points but does obviously let itself down with words like "reeling" and "soar".

Interest rates are up over 15% in less than a year with more on the way - they are already soaring. If they use words such as 'surge' and 'boom' for house prices what else do you expect them to say about interest rates.

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Guest d23
Interest rates are up over 15% in less than a year with more on the way - they are already soaring. If they use words such as 'surge' and 'boom' for house prices what else do you expect them to say about interest rates.

and if they're to be criticised for 'surge' and 'boom' when talking about house prices (as they certainly have been) then surely the converse must apply when discussing IR's

or is hyperbole only acceptable when bearish?

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Interest rates are up over 15% in less than a year with more on the way - they are already soaring.

Calm down <_<

The expectation seems to be one more increase to 5.5pc, and that looks very much like the peak in the current cycle.

Whichh brings me back to my prediction of a gently undulating property market, with no nasty nominal falls.

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Calm down <_<

The expectation seems to be one more increase to 5.5pc, and that looks very much like the peak in the current cycle.

Whichh brings me back to my prediction of a gently undulating property market, with no nasty nominal falls.

I am calm ;)

One more will make it 20% in a year (soaring in my book) – I somehow think it will be more than that when you look at how wrong most people have been regarding inflation and interest rate predictions this past year – that calls for another ;)

Good luck with your prediction - that calls for another ;)

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Calm down <_<

The expectation seems to be one more increase to 5.5pc, and that looks very much like the peak in the current cycle.

Whichh brings me back to my prediction of a gently undulating property market, with no nasty nominal falls.

this looks like the peak, says who?

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and if they're to be criticised for 'surge' and 'boom' when talking about house prices (as they certainly have been) then surely the converse must apply when discussing IR's

or is hyperbole only acceptable when bearish?

Yawn...

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How the hell can they expect to have any credibility, when comparing todays headline with the one 2 days ago.

I reckon the bulls and bears sit in a circle and play spin the bottle to see who will get the front page.

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this looks like the peak, says who?

Financial markets are looking at 5.5pc, and a recent poll of economist (Reuters, I believe) showed that the consensus was 5.5pc tops.

EDIT: OurDayWillCome - feel free to have a gloat if I turn out to be wrong ;)

Edited by Europa

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feel free to have a gloat if I turn out to be wrong ;)

I'm going to feel free to have a gloat, even if you turn out to be right.

It's a Zen thing. :ph34r:

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Guest The_Oldie
I almost forgive them for their blatant property ramping with this article. How the hell can they expect to have any credibility, when comparing todays headline with the one 2 days ago. Good to see it though,especially from this rag. Also nice to see their favourite "SOAR" word being used in another context,other than hpi.

Don't get your hopes up, they'll no doubt run with "House prices to soar" in a few days time ;).

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Calm down <_<

The expectation seems to be one more increase to 5.5pc, and that looks very much like the peak in the current cycle.

Whichh brings me back to my prediction of a gently undulating property market, with no nasty nominal falls.

Yawn. You're like a stuck record - May I remind everyone what you said in October and (countless times before)

The expectation seems to be a peak of 5.25pc during the current cycle; and given that key inflationary pressures are easing (energy, for example), even 5.25pc is by no means certain. After that the feeling is that interest rates could ease again.

I believe 6pc will be enough to dent the market, but that just isn't on the radar :)

I take it if interest rates go up to 5.5% the expectation will be that they peak at 5.75%.

Edited by Bear Goggles

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Makes little difference what the papers say, the vast majority of buyers over the last 8 years or so know very well that the average BOE interest rate over the years is 8% with 10% on mortgages so they will have allowed for that in their calculations, therefore until mortgages are over 10% I would say theres no crash on the horizon. The extra cash saved on low interest rates has gone into the homebuyers pockets and they are using that to large it up on everything else, hence the boom economy.

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Guest X-QUORK
Makes little difference what the papers say, the vast majority of buyers over the last 8 years or so know very well that the average BOE interest rate over the years is 8% with 10% on mortgages so they will have allowed for that in their calculations, therefore until mortgages are over 10% I would say theres no crash on the horizon. The extra cash saved on low interest rates has gone into the homebuyers pockets and they are using that to large it up on everything else, hence the boom economy.

I'll have some of what you're drinking!

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Calm down <_<

The expectation seems to be one more increase to 5.5pc, and that looks very much like the peak in the current cycle.

Whichh brings me back to my prediction of a gently undulating property market, with no nasty nominal falls.

Not quite. The 2 year view of the MPC is actually worse for housing bulls that it was this time last year. From the FT 'Uncertainty over the inflation outlook is plaguing the MPC so much that it now thinks there is a 90 per cent chance that CPI inflation will lie between 1 and 3.5 per cent in two years’ time. Last February, it looked at the world with greater confidence, setting the 90 per cent confidence band between 1.2 and 2.9 per cent at the two-year horizon'.

Basically, nobody quite knows where inflation is going, but the MPC is factoring in much higher levels of inflation in the 2 year term i.e. 3.5 than it did this time last year i.e. 2.9. OK, the base is lower (1%) but 3.5 is quite a way over 2.9% (which is where we are at now).

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/319c4610-bc74-11db...00779e2340.html

We also need to watch this development

'“Continuing muted average earnings growth in December is obviously very welcome news for the Bank of England, although it is likely to be of only limited influence in the outlook for interest rates,” he said.

“The Bank is far more concerned with what happens to pay early in 2007, given the clear risk that wage settlements could move significantly higher in reaction to Retail Price Index inflation rising to a 15-year high of 4.4 per cent in December and still being as high as 4.2 per cent in January.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/eab4b52c-bc0d-11db...00779e2340.html

Edited by BTLlivingthedream

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
The expectation seems to be one more increase to 5.5pc, and that looks very much like the peak in the current cycle.

Whichh brings me back to my prediction of a gently undulating property market, with no nasty nominal falls.

Can you email Mervyn as I don`t think he knows that. ;)

Inflation Report Press Conference Watch Webcast

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I'm going to feel free to have a gloat, even if you turn out to be right.

It's a Zen thing. :ph34r:

whereas I just feel free, full stop.

Must be something to do with having no debt? :lol:

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  • 317 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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