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Clarence Dock and close area IS pretty nice actually, and I think (hope) will prosper. Better to inhabit old industrial land than concreting an out of town field?

What it does need, imho, is a post office, doctors etc as it's pretty much set up for life without a car.

there will be a case fior city centre living for non social housing - IF regional economies like Leeds survive

if so, then identifying the nice city centre apartment areas will be an issue.

I think the timing is out tho - purchase prices, and rents (it is EASY gettign nice rental anywhere really for cheap price) have further to fall

I find it hard to see why you would take a punt here and now when there are more fluid opportunities in other markets with a greater immediate upside. unless you are a serial property speculator.

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Just reviewed prices in my immediate area and the falls are getting quite significant now. There’s loads of places on the market for under £100k (this time last year I think there was one)… quite a few that I can comfortably afford. Looking at the bigger picture and taking into account where I feel prices should be to be correctly aligned with wages I still think there’s scope for significant further falls, so I’m going to hang on. Having made some exploratory enquiries with lenders I’m quite surprised by the amount that I’m still able to borrow. One lender offered me so much that I’d only have £100/month left after my mortgage repayment! I’d like to know how they think £100/month would cover food, energy, water rates, council tax and transportation!! I should have asked them!!!

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off-topic, but Leeds people will be reading this so I'll plug something out of fairness

we all hear about Pizza Express etc doing recession offers to keep going. One of Leeds' independent Italian places has £5 for any pizza or pasta dish any time of day, pinned up notice outside. I'm not connected but thought they deserve a fair crack of the advertising Pizza Express have got thru discussions on HPC:

http://www.sugarvine.com/leeds/reviews/rev...583&name=Da Mario Pizzeria://http://www.sugarvine.com/leeds/revi... Mario Pizzeria

Edited by Si1
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off-topic, but Leeds people will be reading this so I'll plug something out of fairness

we all hear about Pizza Express etc doing recession offers to keep going. One of Leeds' independent Italian places has £5 for any pizza or pasta dish any time of day, pinned up notice outside. I'm not connected but thought they deserve a fair crack of the advertising Pizza Express have got thru discussions on HPC:

http://www.sugarvine.com/leeds/reviews/rev...583&name=Da Mario Pizzeria://http://www.sugarvine.com/leeds/revi... Mario Pizzeria://http://www.sugarvine.com/leeds/revi... Mario Pizzeria

There's always good offers in Leeds - look on Toptable - especially just after work and when students away.

Great place for eating out

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I live in the Clarence Dock development. I've actually lived in three 1 bed rented flats over the last few years.

First was £550 due to building work, then £600, then my previous contract was at £575.

This has now come to an end, and I've been looking at apartments today priced at £525 range. I actually think £500 should be achievable if I agree to the 1 year contract.

It is a nice development here, but all of the new restaurants and shops down here are absolutely dead. I'm not sure how long they are committed for, but I can't see these shops sticking around if things don't change.

You will also notice that the huge office building is completely vacant, as are 5 or 6 of the commercial units.

Last time around I thought it might take off more as a location than it actually has done. The veneer of desirable lifestyle living is thin indeed, and I'm not sure if they will be able to trade off that forever.

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I live in the Clarence Dock development. I've actually lived in three 1 bed rented flats over the last few years.

I think the fact that you've chosen to live here time after time really does sum up my point.

I find it hard to see why you would take a punt here and now when there are more fluid opportunities in other markets with a greater immediate upside. unless you are a serial property speculator.

There's nothing 'serial' about it I'm afriad, although I am certainly speculating.

There was virtually no doubt in my mind, from visiting all the major city centre housing developments over the last few weeks, that Clarence dock was the most appealing. You can look at it simply, if i like it then others will like it. Looks great, feels great, plenty to do and less than 5 minutes walk to town. My friend tells me that all businesses that have set up there have been given 5 years free rent. You might say that this shows the council are clutching at straws, but also demonstrates that for the next '5 years' punters walking around there looking for a place to live will have exactly the same positive experience i had walking around there recently. It just feels great. It aslo supports my earlier point that City Council will not let this development die. Dockland developments are almost always the highlight of inner city living and I think the council will do anything to stop them from failing, especially as they encapsulate our best tourist attraction (IMO). Nonetheless, i don't think it will come to that, because as i say, this struck me (a young professional) as the most appealing place to live in the city.

there will be a case for city centre living for non social housing - If regional economies like Leeds survive

If regional econimies like Leeds don't survive I think we should all think about leaving the country!!

So yes I am speculating, and it might be arguable that it's not a fantastic short term investment (although i still maintain you could make £98 grand work well for you rental wise, i really do) but it is the 3-5 years time market i'm thinking about!

We're all looking for different things, so people will make their own choices...

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I live in the Clarence Dock development. I've actually lived in three 1 bed rented flats over the last few years.

I moved out about 6 months ago (landlord got repossessed), my rent was £550 but there was also parking to pay on top which initially cost £400/quarter (£133/month), although prices dropped a bit during the middle of last year. I used the multi-story who, for those unfamiliar with the development, run a monopoly on the "non basement" parking spaces.

I enjoyed my time at Clarence Dock (was only going to give it six months but stayed for 4 years). Perhaps I am a slow walker but it would take me 20/25 mins to walk to my favourite haunt, All-Bar-One, on Greek Street. The walk there being mainly uphill but much easier on the way back, especially after a few scoops! I kind of liked the fact that the Clarence Dock location was a bit out of the town centre, although the basic infrastructure was very slow to get going (shops, etc).

One thing that always tickled me was the pattern of new arrivals (new tenants). They would often have a "mad fortnight": staying up late, partying, playing loud music, inviting their friends to stay, etc. After a fortnight, not being able to burn the candle at both ends, they would settle down like the rest of us.

............and there was another chap who I thought must have been an all night DJ of some sort, I would bump into him in the foyer as I was leaving for work at 6.00am and he was just arriving back home!

Regards

Sox

Edited by Bootsox
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If regional econimies like Leeds don't survive I think we should all think about leaving the country!!

So yes I am speculating, and it might be arguable that it's not a fantastic short term investment (although i still maintain you could make £98 grand work well for you rental wise, i really do) but it is the 3-5 years time market i'm thinking about!

We're all looking for different things, so people will make their own choices...

err - so you are saying that the leeds economy may fail so you are buying anyway. very strange!

and in 3 to 5 years they'll be even cheaper, imho

we're not looking for different things - we just disagree

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What? Are you joking me? Of course i'm not saying that, obviously.... is that just a very weak attempt at trying to be clever?

I was saying it, in a polite way, to highlight the ridiculous and irrelevant point you made about the Leeds economy failing. It's ridiculous because what's the point of you contributing to this topic if that's what you think... and begs the question why have you reached 1900 posts??? and it's irrelevant because even if it was a possibility, it's such a broad sweeping pessimistic comment, you might as well have said, what's the point in getting out of bed in the morning because we're all going to die anyway! What? So I'm not meant to speculate on forum set up for speculation, about buying a house in Leeds where i have a good amount of job security and my family live, in a thread about Leeds properties, because there's a chance that the Leeds economy might not survive? That is my point! Why do you even step outside your door in the morning Si? Do you understand my point now? Would you like me to write in big letters?

we're not looking for different things - we just disagree

Yes you're right, that was just a polite way of saying it, as I wasn't going to be so rude and confrontational! But now i know what sort of person you are, and what sort of ridiculous angle you're coming from, it really helps as it completely disregards to me your earlier comments.

Please feel free to reply with some more weak sarcasm because you're clearly the sort of person that gets some sort of personal gratification out of lowering the tone and having the last word on an internet forum? Or are you really just a bit simple?

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What? Are you joking me? Of course i'm not saying that, obviously.... is that just a very weak attempt at trying to be clever?

I was saying it, in a polite way, to highlight the ridiculous and irrelevant point you made about the Leeds economy failing. It's ridiculous because what's the point of you contributing to this topic if that's what you think... and begs the question why have you reached 1900 posts??? and it's irrelevant because even if it was a possibility, it's such a broad sweeping pessimistic comment, you might as well have said, what's the point in getting out of bed in the morning because we're all going to die anyway! What? So I'm not meant to speculate on forum set up for speculation, about buying a house in Leeds where i have a good amount of job security and my family live, in a thread about Leeds properties, because there's a chance that the Leeds economy might not survive? That is my point! Why do you even step outside your door in the morning Si? Do you understand my point now? Would you like me to write in big letters?

Yes you're right, that was just a polite way of saying it, as I wasn't going to be so rude and confrontational! But now i know what sort of person you are, and what sort of ridiculous angle you're coming from, it really helps as it completely disregards to me your earlier comments.

Please feel free to reply with some more weak sarcasm because you're clearly the sort of person that gets some sort of personal gratification out of lowering the tone and having the last word on an internet forum? Or are you really just a bit simple?

That's an awful lot of words to basically say that you think value is based more on your motivation to get out of bed, rather than the economy looking forward. Emotive and self-contradictory. Nil points, as they say on Eurovision.

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Ha ha, this thread is great. I know, err..., quite a bit about what is going on in the area and can state fairly positively the following;

Leeds City Council (through the South Leeds ALMO) is highly unlikely to step in and buy any properties in the foreseeable future, nor do I see any Housing Association being interested (my old man was on the development committee of a very large HA) and they turned down loads of similar offers - quite simply the flats do not meet the required specifications, they are too poorly built to be anything but a liability. Also the demand for 1 and 2 bed flats is tiny, people want 3, 4 and 5 bed houses.

The shops and restaurants in the development have a two year rent free period but I hear are already unhappy. Car parking is a terrible issue, no on street car parking except on Carlisle Road and five cars (I counted the glass the other day) have been broken into there last week. The multi-storey is too expensive. There is now additional competition for spaces as the Armouries staff have just been turfed out of Costco's car park.

The whole development lacks a warm friendly charm, it is cold and wind swept, there is no green space within a mile.

Tesco's employ some truly useless staff. The amount of stories I hear about people being refused service for fags and beer in a predominantly young community surely commercial suicide. I go to Morrison's, a bit of a trek but worth it.

Armouries is Leeds greatest attraction then..? Doubt it. I would place the New City Museum, Harewood House, Kirkstall Abbey and the Leeds Art Gallery way ahead.

Two lads been out surveying the area this week. Some of you may know that Supertram was due to come down past Magellan House, cut through the Go-Carting place next to Braime Castings and onwards in a huge loop to East Ardsley. Alistair Darling put paid to that but now LCC/Metro are looking at using the same route for a guided bus scheme (like York Road/Harrogate Road). This will at least improve the public transport.

I shall post some pictures I took of the flat over development later in the week for those of you reading this that have never been here.

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Armouries is Leeds greatest attraction then..? Doubt it. I would place the New City Museum, Harewood House, Kirkstall Abbey and the Leeds Art Gallery way ahead.

also the Grand Theatre (Opera North is a cultural gem) and Yorkshire Sculpture Park, Bolton Abbey is great but not really in Leeds!

Some of you may know that Supertram was due to come down past Magellan House, cut through the Go-Carting place next to Braime Castings and onwards in a huge loop to East Ardsley. Alistair Darling put paid to that but now LCC/Metro are looking at using the same route for a guided bus scheme (like York Road/Harrogate Road). This will at least improve the public transport.

supertram always seemed daft for Leeds - not a big enough city for it, and got good train routes already. IM humble opinion as I don't work in the field!

the bus route schemes have been fantatsic so far as I know - Scott Hall Road and more recently Burley Road schemes seem entirely apt for Leeds.

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How so? Pray tell!

I know you simply want to get on. And I share the sense of hope and aspiration that comes from a plausible investment opportunity. With res[pect to this I wish you the best whether I agree with your timing or not.

Regarding my posts - take em or leave em, you can't honestly expect me to explain stuff to you after that earlier string of personal invective...?

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I agree likewise, in respect of having a 'common aim' and it's therefore not just for my personal gratification that asks for an explanation but as a process of getting closer to the common goal, so please don't bail out the post on my behalf. I have appreciated your input and found your comments to have come from a level of intellect (not only based on the fact i had to look up what 'invective' meant on dictionary.com). I just took great exception to your last point... hopefully we can move on.

QUOTE (2112 @ Jan 25 2009, 08:44 PM)

Armouries is Leeds greatest attraction then..? Doubt it. I would place the New City Museum, Harewood House, Kirkstall Abbey and the Leeds Art Gallery way ahead.

also the Grand Theatre (Opera North is a cultural gem) and Yorkshire Sculpture Park, Bolton Abbey is great but not really in Leeds!

Ignoring the fact that I added the words "in my opinion", maybe if i had changed my statement to say, "armouries is in my 'top 5' favourite leeds attractions" that would have avoided spurring on the pedantic among us and allowed us to focus on the crux of my point, which is that it would be very detrimental to Leeds as a city should the area around 'one of it's' main attractions turn to shit. (Although, admittedly that would still leave the door open for someone to say 'actually, the armouries is only my 6th or 7th favourite attraction...').

2112 have you heard any specific feedback from the businesses and when do you think the metro link will happen?

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madlibvibe - fair enough

excuse my bullets, I'm aiming at some sort of clarity:

1) the economy Leeds (like most other Northern regional cities) benefits from a lot of public sector white collar well paid employment, afaik. Most notably the NHS head office. I expect the public sector nationally to be cut by half over next 5 or 10 years. Weighed under the pressure of pfi the NHS might even be shut down (I actually doubt this but it is a possibility - it would be a shame but sh*t happens)

2) the other major white collar employer is finance, around West Yorkshire, and particularly mortgage banks. HBOS and B&B being major ones. Also Abbey, Equifax, and a lot of building societies in the surrounding area. I fully expect this sector to slim down a lot - it already is.

3) many other jobs serve the money that gets spent by employees of these 2 sectors, and also the flat building boom and retail boom, fast receding

If the mortgage industry and NHS/public sector shed most of their previous jobs in West Yorkshire then I think the whole area, with Leeds as its capital, will go back to how it was BEFORE the gentrification, to being an old mill-town struggling with the post industrial era like it was in the 80s. Average salaries will be much much lower and hence average property prices will correct further, in terms of £s, than other parts of the country.

I think this worst-case scenario depends on (1) me possibly misunderstanding the employment mix in Leeds and (2) a fair bit of bad luck. I suspect it won't happen but I feel there is a chance. Investments are about understanding risk and are not black and white.

To sum up, although you may be right about the area you like being an investment opportunity, I would say there are TWO main economic risks that you would do better to wait several years (I'd say 5) before taking the plunge:

(1) the market, nationally has a lot further to fall imho (see this thread: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=102096 - Extradry Martini is a very clever guy, frankly I only understand half of what he says, but I think it is good stuff). People buying now are swimming against a greater tide of tight credit and negative sentiment.

(2) the local market has the uncertainties I mention above

If you miss the bottom 10% of the upswing in 5 years time so-what, the risk on the downside buying now would be that you lose another 50% or a lot more if the worst-case local scenario happens.

Hope this helps

Si1

Edited by Si1
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Barnard Marcus Current Auction

I could only see 2 flats, however....

Flat 20, Faroe, Gotts Road, LS12 - 3rd Floor, 2 bedroom sold for £72,000

Sold new 1st July 2005 for £131,000 (so for the less numerate that is a £59,000 loss plus costs)

36 Admiral Street, LS11 - 1st Floor, 3 rooms(?) sold for £63,000

Sold new 21st June 2005 for £135,000 (that is a £72,000 loss)

Please note I do not find any pleasure in posting these losses, they are staggering at this early stage of the great HPC.

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2112 have you heard any specific feedback from the businesses and when do you think the metro link will happen?

I have plenty but it would breach the confidences of people I work with so no specifics I am afraid.

The lads running the management company are a keen and pleasant bunch and I think do their best given they have limited manoevrability. The shops may well have two year rent free periods but they still have to pay rates, taxes, wages, utilities, etc. I would be concerned that there is simply not enough trade to sustain the businesses (except Tesco and the Alea) beyond 2010. I seek no pleasure in this either, some nice people down there. I had a decent meal in Larocca last week.

No idea if and when the guided bus will happen but I do think it will bring many positive benefits to the whole area.

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Thanks for this Si, personally found this really useful. Good insight into local econemy.

What i do like is the idea of splitting it into two seperate issues. I believe a main factor to be taken into account is that the situation locally (leeds city centre) is very different from the national trend. I believe we were due to have a crash in city centre flats regardless of economy simply due to the massive over supply. I've had a read through Extradry Martini analysis and seem to me to be a well grounded prediction of national trends, with an overall estimation of housing market falling between 48% and 57% over next few years. However, if you look at Leeds city centre flats, they have already fallen this ammount (up to 70% in areas). Even in desirable areas (such as Clarence Dock, which yes, i do feel is desirable IMO), if you look at £98K for clarnece dock 2 beder where similar properties were selling for £195,000 mid '07 (admitedly a ridiculous amount), then this is aleady a 50% drop! Are we saying they are going to drop huge amounts more? As soon as first time buyers have saved a 10% deposit they will be buying them! I don't think for one minute we are close to the bottom of the market in Leeds City centre, nor am I arguing that now is the time to buy, but I think there are some good deals out there, if you pick the right development for the right reasons, and i think we should appretiate that, otherwise we might miss a trick...

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Thanks for this Si, personally found this really useful. Good insight into local econemy.

What i do like is the idea of splitting it into two seperate issues. I believe a main factor to be taken into account is that the situation locally (leeds city centre) is very different from the national trend. I believe we were due to have a crash in city centre flats regardless of economy simply due to the massive over supply. I've had a read through Extradry Martini analysis and seem to me to be a well grounded prediction of national trends, with an overall estimation of housing market falling between 48% and 57% over next few years. However, if you look at Leeds city centre flats, they have already fallen this ammount (up to 70% in areas). Even in desirable areas (such as Clarence Dock, which yes, i do feel is desirable IMO), if you look at £98K for clarnece dock 2 beder where similar properties were selling for £195,000 mid '07 (admitedly a ridiculous amount), then this is aleady a 50% drop! Are we saying they are going to drop huge amounts more? As soon as first time buyers have saved a 10% deposit they will be buying them! I don't think for one minute we are close to the bottom of the market in Leeds City centre, nor am I arguing that now is the time to buy, but I think there are some good deals out there, if you pick the right development for the right reasons, and i think we should appretiate that, otherwise we might miss a trick...

I agree and I disagree - no, I think city centre apartments could well fall much farther than the average, and no, people won't queue up to buy them immediately thereafter - there isn't the demographic support imho. But yes, at the bottom of the market I am sure there will be bargains, and I agree you do need to select location carefully, as many (probably not all) city centre apartments will end up as sink housing.

Good luck. We need entrpreneurs.

Edited by Si1
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away from the grimy loveliness of leeds city centre, here in hebden bridge we have a little downward movement at last, this pleasant terrace on for 240k recently

http://pdf.reedsrains.co.uk/propimg/002_00...f/200103542.pdf

seems comparable to this place on at 365k at peak a year ago, now at 320k

http://search.issl.co.uk/LargePicture2.asp...le=Main%20Image

apart from the latter having a small garden slightly detached from the house (communal driveway before you get to it)

a year ago the first place would have been on for 300k easy so that is 20% drop in asking price on stuff just coming on the market, which is making other properties look ambitiously priced to say the least.

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The flats are poorly constructed, some of them look like the outside is made of plasterboard with a sort of rendered coating. Some suffer from damp, Brewery Wharf being a notable example.

When the communal areas go downhill, like the refuse and lift areas in Clarence House then watch values and rents plummet further. Then watch prices become attractive to students, then watch prices drop further still untill they reach equilibrium with the student market.

Will there be enough students to fill the place, because all of the 'young professionals' will be out like a shot as soon as the noisy students move in in force.

The shops are doomed. Dead on a Saturday afternoon when you cant move in town.

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