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I have just found the site

http://www.home.co.uk

And the trends for my neck of the woods is

Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change

Detached £246,998 £231,830 -6%

Semi £174,537 £181,998 +4%

Terraced £138,740 £150,917 +9%

Flat £163,750 £101,225 -38%

All £188,569 £190,437 +1%

Flats have gone down £38%!!

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I have just found the site

http://www.home.co.uk

And the trends for my neck of the woods is

Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change

Detached £246,998 £231,830 -6%

Semi £174,537 £181,998 +4%

Terraced £138,740 £150,917 +9%

Flat £163,750 £101,225 -38%

All £188,569 £190,437 +1%

Flats have gone down £38%!!

Get your deposit ready HH, its on its way. :D

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I have just found the site

http://www.home.co.uk

And the trends for my neck of the woods is

Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change

Detached £246,998 £231,830 -6%

Semi £174,537 £181,998 +4%

Terraced £138,740 £150,917 +9%

Flat £163,750 £101,225 -38%

All £188,569 £190,437 +1%

Flats have gone down £38%!!

Hi HH,

just what we have been discussing the last few weeks, I think it's the Londinium market & a bit of the SE that's skewing the national figures, because where we are it's been stagnant & dropping in some categories for the last year :D

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Hi, yes, it also shows that sales have dropped considerably in 2006, especially detached for some reason.

Good news hey Ripandcap!

A friends kid brother, early twenties.. he and his mates play a little competition.. they see who can negotiatte the largest discount on various new build estates..

flats can be had now for just under the 100,000 mark that were over 150,000 two years ago..

they find it funny.

this is exeter.

i called the crash in 2004, thats when it started..

since then you have been able to spend less on property

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Hi, yes, it also shows that sales have dropped considerably in 2006, especially detached for some reason.

Good news hey Ripandcap!

Happy new year to you HH and hope 2007/2008 be even happier. :D

2008/2009 you may be living in that detatched house you've waited so long for.

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Just done a quick search for my neck of the woods in North London (Hendon). I was suspicious of some of the headlines and now I am convinced. A HPC has been well under way in some areas for months.

Take a look at these numbers and go figure where the headline 8-10% rises for 2006 come from:

Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change

Detached £815,431 £803,071 -2%

Semi £405,116 £377,850 -7%

Terraced £372,150 £255,000 -31%

Flat £277,403 £259,671 -6%

All £367,553 £395,466 +8%

Is there some funny business going on?. Can someone please explain how there is an overall increase of 8% when the majority of sales are semis and flats (7 and 6% falls respectively). I can only presume this is a freakish statistical result based on skewed figures for detached selling prices. This cannot be repeated surely!

HPC -Full steam ahead. 2007 will be a vintage year!

Edited by desertorchid

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Is there some funny business going on?. Can someone please explain how there is an overall increase of 8% when the majority of sales are semis and flats (7 and 6% falls respectively). I can only presume this is a freakish statistical result based on skewed figures for detached selling prices. This cannot be repeated surely!

HPC -Full steam ahead. 2007 will be a vintage year!

It does seem a bit bizarre. There must be some other categories not included in that list. It's mathematically impossible to get a positive total average like that if all the sub-categories have negative averages! Either that or they missed off the negative sign for the 8%!

Best,

L

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For me:

MeanAug 2005 Aug 2006 Change

Detached £338,333 £424,885 +26%

Semi £248,428 £259,029 +4%

Terraced £219,944 £281,590 +28%

Flat £159,688 £193,862 +21%

All £215,201 £280,225 +30%

Median

Aug 2005 Aug 2006 Change

Detached £335,000 £375,000 +12%

Semi £233,725 £240,000 +3%

Terraced £212,000 £253,975 +20%

Flat £162,500 £188,250 +16%

Number sold

Aug 2005 Aug 2006 Change

Detached 3 14 +367%

Semi 16 31 +94%

Terraced 9 10 +11%

Flat 17 16 -6%

-----------------------------------

Bit short on good news round here!

Edited by jonewer

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It does seem a bit bizarre. There must be some other categories not included in that list. It's mathematically impossible to get a positive total average like that if all the sub-categories have negative averages! Either that or they missed off the negative sign for the 8%!

Best,

L

Not at all. Those figures are entirely plausible, it depends on the bias in the actual transactions and how the average is worked out. Lie, damned lies and statisitcs. Take a simple example:

2005 2 detached houses sell for £250K and 10 flats sell for £100K - "average" house price is £125K

2006 5 detached houses sell for £225K and 7 flats sell for £90K EVERY PROPERTY DECLINED BY 10% BUT "AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE" RISEN BY 17 F@CKING PERECNT TO £146K :o:blink::o

I would not be surprised if this time even when most houses are selling for 10%+ less than they were recently, the indices will still be comfortably positive. Its all in the spin.

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I would not be surprised if this time even when most houses are selling for 10%+ less than they were recently, the indices will still be comfortably positive. Its all in the spin.

Thanks daiking for that example. If the mortgage lenders and newspapers are pulling this kind of chicanery out of the woodworks, then surely when they publish their headline price increase figures, they could be done for misrepresentation or something? Thinking about it, what's to stop them from obtaining whatever headline figure that they want if they just include or exclude the right subset of data?

Best,

L

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Just done a search for areas around me and they are all pretty much give or take a few %.

However one area I found very interesting was this:

Detached £230,925 £228,997 -1%

Semi £135,228 £119,313 -12%

Terraced £98,295 £142,595 +45%

Flat £104,599 £91,833 -12%

All £132,983 £128,331 -3%

Terraced seem to be crazy but this is the important bit.......

Houses SOLD

Detached 57 4 -93%

Semi 126 28 -78%

Terraced 138 21 -85%

Flat 38 6 -84%

Surely thats some sort of record??? Or maybe a mistake on the website lol

EDIT---

Just to add to that it seems there is another area around here with similar results so maybe the data is correct. All the prices are higher (by 30% in some cases) but the sales are well down.

Detached 39 5 -87%

Semi 58 12 -79%

Terraced 47 10 -79%

Flat 19 13 -32%

Edited by Fred

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Yes, I found sales are well down, and that terraced and semi have sold more than others in recent years (although stll down in sales). Detached and flats are seriously down in sales. That proves it's the second home owning BTL that are propping up the market, as they are more likely to buy terrace and semi's as second homes.

Edited by HOUSEHUNTER

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Average Property Selling Prices in Alcester (£000's)
Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change
Detached £395,000 £277,750 -30%
Median Property Selling Prices in Alcester (£000's)
Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change
Detached £395,000 £265,000 -33%

I have been following prices for detached homes in my area for about a year and the above seems a bit bearish. However, the VIs claim prices in the area (West Midlands) soared by 0.3% in 2006 which is far too bullish. Down 15% or so would seem about right. 2007 should bring a sharper drop and 2008 maybe time to start looking for a nice detached around 200k.

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Average Property Selling Prices in Alcester (£000's)
Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change
Detached £395,000 £277,750 -30%
Median Property Selling Prices in Alcester (£000's)
Sep 2005 Sep 2006 Change
Detached £395,000 £265,000 -33%

I have been following prices for detached homes in my area for about a year and the above seems a bit bearish. However, the VIs claim prices in the area (West Midlands) soared by 0.3% in 2006 which is far too bullish. Down 15% or so would seem about right. 2007 should bring a sharper drop and 2008 maybe time to start looking for a nice detached around 200k.

My West Midlands:

Detached +6%

Terraced +40%

Flat +163% (number of transactions up 400%)

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My West Midlands:

Detached +6%

Terraced +40%

Flat +163% (number of transactions up 400%)

yep, people still paying silly money very quickly in my parents locality (West Mids) too... I think it's just an anomaly though.

Edited by twowheelspete

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Folks are right that with such a small sample size, these stats really need to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. However, the average price and units sold graphs are a very promising sign IMO.

An area a few miles away from me - Hook, Hampshire shows a gradual decline in average prices (circa 20% YOY) and a distinct drop in sales.

Of course, it may just be that a huge (expensive) development was being sold off in 2005 and so bumped the numbers up then. Or, it could be what we've all thought's been going on but the media have been denying.

Personal anecdotes:

1) The house I live in right now (rented, of course) is "worth" £330k judging by other sales of identical houses in the same street. The strange thing is, the owners bought it for £320k back in Aug 2001. A pretty poor 5yr return, IMHO.

2) A friend has just "snapped up a bargain" (in his eyes) of a property at £490k after an agreed sale in early 2006 at £570k fell through.

I've gotta say that from where I'm standing the media spin just doesn't add up. London, where I used to live (E14) ... well, that's a different story.

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There is so much disinformation out there coupled with hype that I would not trust anything other than your local property newspaper. I read mine every week and see a lot of "price reduced" "no chain" and "unexpectedly back on the market."

IMO, this bull market died in 2005 for most of the country. The speculation may continue in London but in the real world its over.

Over the long haul property prices have NEVER departed from wages. NEVER. As of 2005 onwards never have house prices been so far adrift from wages. Merv said it, Big Al Greenspan said it. Its blindingly obvious.

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Folks are right that with such a small sample size, these stats really need to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. However, the average price and units sold graphs are a very promising sign IMO.

An area a few miles away from me - Hook, Hampshire shows a gradual decline in average prices (circa 20% YOY) and a distinct drop in sales.

See this thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=39791

For massive drops in sales volumes around outer SW London and Surrey commuter land. Seems like sales fell off a cliff in Jan 2006.

Seems a bit fishy to me but these are supposed to be land registry figures.

Does anyone else know of sites that can give similar graphs to cross-check?

Edited by jonewer

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Folks are right that with such a small sample size, these stats really need to be taken with a healthy dose of salt. However, the average price and units sold graphs are a very promising sign IMO.

Think this needs to be repeated once again.

I saw threads like this in 2004 talking about the crash that had started, all the bears rejoicing ect ect.

Edited by zag2me

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Over the long haul property prices have NEVER departed from wages. NEVER. As of 2005 onwards never have house prices been so far adrift from wages. Merv said it, Big Al Greenspan said it. Its blindingly obvious.

Is the long haul really long enough? As a data analyst in another area, my outsider concern is that the data set really is not great enough. As I type this I am wondering whether the wage comparison is made only in the UK - I would feel alot happier about the statistical merits of such assertions if they were made based on worldwide trends, not just the UK. Does anyone know the answer? Do japanese/russian/canadian prices also revert to the same multiple of wages?

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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