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In Trouble With The Mrs


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The housing boom which was fuelled by mega-cheap borrowing on a truely immense scale. IMO, the 2000 global down turn has been delayed rather than avoided.

I quite agree, and it isn't a trick that we'll be able to pull off a second time. But does that mean it would have been better to take no action and watch our economy nose-dive?

A crash will come, but the question is when. Five years, ten maybe? What level will prices return to?

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I quite agree, and it isn't a trick that we'll be able to pull off a second time. But does that mean it would have been better to take no action and watch our economy nose-dive?

A crash will come, but the question is when. Five years, ten maybe? What level will prices return to?

Ah this is the key issue alongside what level of inflation will be prevailant

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash

Not good enough really. Owning more than one property is having a negative impact on others. You could do something about that. Your decision not to is morally questionable. We shouldn't, as a society, pussyfoot around these issues. Your actions are anti-social. That's not rude, it's just a statement of fact. Or would you rather that wasn't pointed out to you?

Do something of value in 2007! What an opportunity you have!

It probably is good enough in one way

Wait a few years and then you'll be-able to judge which of you two called the market right in Brighton

I'd say BTLers such as chrisbrighton are more lucky than antisocial - But you need to use your luck in this life so why should he pay a lump sum to the chancellor on your 'advice'?

He wants to save for his future (& that of his family maybe) like everyone else

He could sell only to see it bought by another BTLer or prices continue to rise

I guess you want the market to go down partly because you STR'd didn't you?

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No need to be so rude..... for most long term BTL's selling does not make any sense. For example, I bought mine for £60k a few years back, now valued at £210. Selling would produce a massive capital gains bill .

Chris, assuming the other half your moniker is home and not just expressing your support for the pink economy, precisely where do you think there is future added value in your area - who are the buyers who are going to be paying higher prices going to be at same yields and higher financing costs - or do you have a solution to increase yield or reduce cost of finance ?

I understood that price/earnings ratios were already higher in Brighton than most other places - you can't be suggesting that they are all going to be London commuters, surely.....

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Thankfully I was born a peasant at the right time. I had 2 Uncles both working men, one bought in 1920 for £250 and the other bought in 1934 for £300 both new build 3 bed terraced houses, their hands were always dirty and overalls covered in muck. :) It was only the fear of taking on a 25 year debt that most of the peasants never bought but rented.

I think this is actually very interesting. As we are talking about 25yr (or longer) debts, and assumptions that "house prices only ever go up" tend to be based upon little more than 50 years of semi-reliable stats - knowing what happened to prices before 1954 is important.

It is said that someone who invested in the Dow the day before the 1929 crash started would not have seen their investment recover to par for 25 years. Were these times deflationary for housing also? I expect that they wouldn't have been hugely inflationary...

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

I think this is actually very interesting. As we are talking about 25yr (or longer) debts, and assumptions that "house prices only ever go up" tend to be based upon little more than 50 years of semi-reliable stats - knowing what happened to prices before 1954 is important.

The Uncle who bought in 1920 for £250 the house was then sold in 1948 for £375 after his death. From that time there was what you could call a mini boom which went on into the 50s. I do know that somebody bought one in the same street for £1,975 in the late 50s. IIRC he too was a peasant, a Milkman who still delivered using a horse and cart. :)

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The Uncle who bought in 1920 for £250 the house was then sold in 1948 for £375 after his death.

So, 50% over 28 years = 1.45% growth annually. Hardly stellar. A depression, a world war, the end of the gold standard - plenty going on there though!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

So, 50% over 28 years = 1.45% growth annually. Hardly stellar. A depression, a world war, the end of the gold standard - plenty going on there though!

But then compare with inflation during those 28 years and the years which went negative.

1948 7.7% 23

1947 7.0% 25

1946 3.1% 26

1945 2.8% 27

1944 2.7% 28

1943 3.4% 29

1942 7.1% 30

1941 10.8% 32

1940 16.8% 35

1939 2.8% 41

1938 1.6% 42

1937 3.4% 43

1936 0.7% 45

1935 0.7% 45

1934 0.0% 45

1933 -2.1% 45

1932 -2.6% 44

1931 -4.3% 43

1930 -2.8% 51

1929 -0.9% 40

1928 -0.3% 40

1927 -2.4% 40

1926 -0.8% 39

1925 0.3% 38

1924 -0.7% 39

1923 -6.0% 38

1922 -14.0% 36

1921 -8.6% 31

1920 15.4% 28

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But then compare with inflation during those 28 years and the years which went negative.

1948 7.7% 23

1947 7.0% 25

1946 3.1% 26

1945 2.8% 27

1944 2.7% 28

1943 3.4% 29

1942 7.1% 30

1941 10.8% 32

1940 16.8% 35

1939 2.8% 41

1938 1.6% 42

1937 3.4% 43

1936 0.7% 45

1935 0.7% 45

1934 0.0% 45

1933 -2.1% 45

1932 -2.6% 44

1931 -4.3% 43

1930 -2.8% 51

1929 -0.9% 40

1928 -0.3% 40

1927 -2.4% 40

1926 -0.8% 39

1925 0.3% 38

1924 -0.7% 39

1923 -6.0% 38

1922 -14.0% 36

1921 -8.6% 31

1920 15.4% 28

suggests that housing tended to move in line with general inflation in this period. (I think :unsure: )

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