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Lets Hope 2007 Is The Year


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Another year nearly over, soon we will be into 2007.

I look at this board yet again this morning and apart from the odd nutcase i read some really good stuff, and most of the arguments i agree with, DEBT being the biggest problem as far as i am concerned.

BUT!!

this morning i wake up feeling all melancholy, i just want this mess to be openly seen as what it is, lets hoping it all kicks off(the Country wakes up), and we can all buy property using real money at an affordable price.

Here's to 2007

p.s when i read yesterday that speculators were allowing property to remain empty in order to keep it pristine, i decided that second that i will never vote Labour again, how sick was that.

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I quite agree Sam-it is quite amazing how long all this has gone on, so long in fact that it has evidently become self-sustaining in that so many people believe that prices will only ever rise that the market's momentum is perpetuated.

I've been waiting for 2 years now convinced that we must be at the turning point and still we see rises, although I am convinced the overall picture is heavily influenced by central london and individual crazy markets such as Northen Ireland. Here in the NW prices are static and have been for two years (this I have had confirmed both by agents and the local district valuers), and there are numerous properties I have kept an eye on that have taken months or even well over a year to sell.

One consolation, it cannot be sustained-the higher the overall market goes the more likely it becomes that we will have a run of months which show falls in prices, and that is when sentiment will truly turn-please let it be in 2007!

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Another year nearly over, soon we will be into 2007.

I look at this board yet again this morning and apart from the odd nutcase i read some really good stuff, and most of the arguments i agree with, DEBT being the biggest problem as far as i am concerned.

BUT!!

this morning i wake up feeling all melancholy, i just want this mess to be openly seen as what it is, lets hoping it all kicks off(the Country wakes up), and we can all buy property using real money at an affordable price.

Here's to 2007

p.s when i read yesterday that speculators were allowing property to remain empty in order to keep it pristine, i decided that second that i will never vote Labour again, how sick was that.

Sam,

2007 will be the year. :D

I just hope that a recession doesn't happen as well, although I think it will & that's bad for everyone. :(

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Damn right !! I've been lurking on this board now for quite a while and not actually posted yet.

Glad I've found this site as it's a comfort to know that I'm not alone in my frustrations. I'm 39 and due to a change in job am currently back with my parents (arrgggh !!) in NE London. I desperately want to buy somewhere but I'm damned if I'm going to pay 150K for a crap flat in a crack-infested estate. I also calculated that staying at my folks is equivalent to a 15K pay rise each year, so I refuse to give my hard-earned cash to some b*****y BTL'er who is part of the problem, as well as shelling out >1K in inflated council tax to help prop up this bankrupt (morally and financially) government. As you can tell, I'm not a big New Labour fan !!!!

I'll just keep saving that deposit (up to 60K and climbing now) and pray that the real inflation figure doesn't erode it too much......

Pete

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Damn right !! I've been lurking on this board now for quite a while and not actually posted yet.

Glad I've found this site as it's a comfort to know that I'm not alone in my frustrations. I'm 39 and due to a change in job am currently back with my parents (arrgggh !!) in NE London. I desperately want to buy somewhere but I'm damned if I'm going to pay 150K for a crap flat in a crack-infested estate. I also calculated that staying at my folks is equivalent to a 15K pay rise each year, so I refuse to give my hard-earned cash to some b*****y BTL'er who is part of the problem, as well as shelling out >1K in inflated council tax to help prop up this bankrupt (morally and financially) government. As you can tell, I'm not a big New Labour fan !!!!

I'll just keep saving that deposit (up to 60K and climbing now) and pray that the real inflation figure doesn't erode it too much......

Pete

Hi. Welcome to the board.

And great username by the way :lol:

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Sam,

2007 will be the year. :D

I just hope that a recession doesn't happen as well, although I think it will & that's bad for everyone. :(

Ok a off-the-wall prediction:

2007 will start of strong and areas such as London, The South East and parts of the South West in particular will most likely experience strong growth. Towards the middle of the year it will tail off and stagnate. The end of the year will see the land registry go Y-O-Y negative with the regions dragging down the figures.

I don't think a full blown crash will happen without big job losses or a large hike in rates (1.5% at least).

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I think i am just like most of the posters on here.

1. I work hard and am good at what i do

2. I earn good money

3. I only want an average house on a wage that puts me in the top 5% earners.

I am only asking for a home, something that i cannot be given 2 months notice and kicked out(twice now), i am warning this Government, you keep excluding GOOD people the way you are doing and all hell will break loose one day.

Everyone has a breaking point, mine has not been reached yet, but i can see why others have reached theirs, all the social problems we have are down to this Country pushing to hard, everyday more decent people are pushed too far and they snap.

Give someone a purpose and a reason to wake up in the morning and they will thrive, this Labour Government survives on FEAR, "someone else will do your job(polish) if you do'nt want it, borrow more more money than the next man or be left out, lie, spin, cheat, all is fair in love and war, this Government is EVIL(and i choose my words wisely).

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I think i am just like most of the posters on here.

1. I work hard and am good at what i do

2. I earn good money

3. I only want an average house on a wage that puts me in the top 5% earners.

I am only asking for a home, something that i cannot be given 2 months notice and kicked out(twice now), i am warning this Government, you keep excluding GOOD people the way you are doing and all hell will break loose one day.

Everyone has a breaking point, mine has not been reached yet, but i can see why others have reached theirs, all the social problems we have are down to this Country pushing to hard, everyday more decent people are pushed too far and they snap.

Give someone a purpose and a reason to wake up in the morning and they will thrive, this Labour Government survives on FEAR, "someone else will do your job(polish) if you do'nt want it, borrow more more money than the next man or be left out, lie, spin, cheat, all is fair in love and war, this Government is EVIL(and i choose my words wisely).

Sam

How old are you?

Do you need a house?

Have you considered relocating to another part of the country or emigrating?

Just asking as I believe prices are unlikely to drop to the level many here expect - (If they do fall 50% it will be due to a severe global recession and housing would be the least of your worries), I believe that 2008 we may see real falls but without a big hike in rates property is unlikely to drop to the level most posters here expect.

Whatever happens you have a couple more years at least.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Sam

How old are you?

Do you need a house?

Have you considered relocating to another part of the country or emigrating?

Just asking as I believe prices are unlikely to drop to the level many here expect - (If they do fall 50% it will be due to a severe global recession and housing would be the least of your worries), I believe that 2008 we may see real falls but without a big hike in rates property is unlikely to drop to the level most posters here expect.

Whatever happens you have a couple more years at least.

Bemused, how old are you, let me guess under 30 & you didn't see or hear about the last hpc ;)

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Guest grumpy-old-man

wrong again I'm closer to 40, STR and remember friends losing their yuppie pads in Brighton in the '80'

so tell me "why is it different this time" then :D

wrong again I'm closer to 40, STR and remember friends losing their yuppie pads in Brighton in the '80'

also, when was I wrong the first time ?? <_<

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so tell me "why is it different this time" then :D

Prior to the disasterous decision by the BOE to lower rates in 2005 a healthy correction would have occured. Since then inflation has been growing yet rates are not increasing. (EDIT - significantly). One safe haven is housing. It's stupidly overpriced but in time of high inflation "safer" than cash in the bank.

It seems to me that Japan has some time to go (maybe 2 years plus) before they raise rates sufficiently to end the carry trade. Lenders are not "tightening lending criteria" - if anything they are getting more lax.

Inflation is being masked in the UK and rates are not being put up sufficiently to curb borrowing

To reverse HPI you need the above to change. It does not look likely in the near term.

I do not have all the answers regarding the movement of house prices but am keeping an open mind. In the short to medium term I can not see a crash. Even if there is one the rampant HPI over the last few years are unlikely to restore housing back to 2004 levels.

Personally I may get back into property in the new year as to me a crash in sterling and a very real rise in inflation seem far more dangerous to my personal situation in the immediate term.

Edited by Bemused
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Heres hoping 2007, however the cynic in me says that it wont be, reason being is that there is so much riding on house prices that the government BOE will do everything to protect them, you only need to look at the dodgy CPI figures that drive the ultra low interest rates and the mass immigration, both of which the goverment is using to keep the pressure on property and I dont see that changing in a hurry. Unless there is an external shock to the system the best I can hope for is prices to stay flat for a few years, the last time prices realy dropped was when interest rates had gone over 12% or so and unemployment was over about 10%. and when that happens only the cash buyers will be confident and the banks wont be anywhere near as willing to loan money out, so save your cash, youll need it.

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Guest barebear

I am 110% bear but next year by quarter 2 if there has been more IR but HP continues to rise I am buying.

I remember the last crash well and it was over about 4 years and that was caused by double miras creating a bubble,the crash happened in slow motion then.One of the first things BS's did was announce you could take your negative equity with you.

Now a lot of areas are stagnating but not falling and certainly not showing any signs of a crash.So if the crash were to start today and achieve the falls that I want to see (30%)it would take at least 5 years.

The problem I have got is that Im 47 and would just about get a 20year mortgage,if I wait a few more years any mortgage I take will be vastly more expensive than renting.

I agree that personal debt will play a big part in any downturn in the market but all the time lending is lax and people have equity personal debt can be absorbed into their property.

So I will be looking to buy at auction and watching the local press for those repo adds.

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I am 110% bear but next year by quarter 2 if there has been more IR but HP continues to rise I am buying.

I remember the last crash well and it was over about 4 years and that was caused by double miras creating a bubble,the crash happened in slow motion then.One of the first things BS's did was announce you could take your negative equity with you.

Now a lot of areas are stagnating but not falling and certainly not showing any signs of a crash.So if the crash were to start today and achieve the falls that I want to see (30%)it would take at least 5 years.

The problem I have got is that Im 47 and would just about get a 20year mortgage,if I wait a few more years any mortgage I take will be vastly more expensive than renting.

I agree that personal debt will play a big part in any downturn in the market but all the time lending is lax and people have equity personal debt can be absorbed into their property.

So I will be looking to buy at auction and watching the local press for those repo adds.

Ahh refreshing an open mind on HPC!

I am of similar sentiments but for slightly different reasons. I will be keeping a close eye on what the BOE does and may have to buy as well (maybe not in the UK) this will grieve me no end.

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I am 110% bear but next year by quarter 2 if there has been more IR but HP continues to rise I am buying.

I remember the last crash well and it was over about 4 years and that was caused by double miras creating a bubble,the crash happened in slow motion then.One of the first things BS's did was announce you could take your negative equity with you.

Now a lot of areas are stagnating but not falling and certainly not showing any signs of a crash.So if the crash were to start today and achieve the falls that I want to see (30%)it would take at least 5 years.

The problem I have got is that Im 47 and would just about get a 20year mortgage,if I wait a few more years any mortgage I take will be vastly more expensive than renting.

I agree that personal debt will play a big part in any downturn in the market but all the time lending is lax and people have equity personal debt can be absorbed into their property.

So I will be looking to buy at auction and watching the local press for those repo adds.

Your right about it maybe taking 5 years to reach bottom, but that is only with the advertised prices, when there is total stagnation for a period of time, a year or so, and I mean not selling as opposed to flat prices, then you can go in with your offers, -20 - -40% on asking prices, if you do this for long enough you might get your price long before such prices are widley quoted in the press.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Prior to the disasterous decision by the BOE to lower rates in 2005 a healthy correction would have occured. Since then inflation has been growing yet rates are not increasing. (EDIT - significantly). One safe haven is housing. It's stupidly overpriced but in time of high inflation "safer" than cash in the bank.

It seems to me that Japan has some time to go (maybe 2 years plus) before they raise rates sufficiently to end the carry trade. Lenders are not "tightening lending criteria" - if anything they are getting more lax.

Inflation is being masked in the UK and rates are not being put up sufficiently to curb borrowing

To reverse HPI you need the above to change. It does not look likely in the near term.

I do not have all the answers regarding the movement of house prices but am keeping an open mind. In the short to medium term I can not see a crash. Even if there is one the rampant HPI over the last few years are unlikely to restore housing back to 2004 levels.

Personally I may get back into property in the new year as to me a crash in sterling and a very real rise in inflation seem far more dangerous to my personal situation in the immediate term.

so we have had another 2 years (almost) of hpi & general inflation, yet you would consider buying in 2007 even though you state that a "healthy correction" should have occurred in 2005.....what sort of correction will it be next year then..... :lol:

IMO the peak for most parts of the North in certain property categories (detached for example) was 2005.......I am seeing the same houses selling now from 2005....some even cheaper than over a year ago.

The problem is that if you live in Londinium or South East, you are not seeing what is happening to the rest of the country.

Prior to the disasterous decision by the BOE to lower rates in 2005 a healthy correction would have occured. Since then inflation has been growing yet rates are not increasing. (EDIT - significantly). One safe haven is housing. It's stupidly overpriced but in time of high inflation "safer" than cash in the bank.

It seems to me that Japan has some time to go (maybe 2 years plus) before they raise rates sufficiently to end the carry trade. Lenders are not "tightening lending criteria" - if anything they are getting more lax.

Inflation is being masked in the UK and rates are not being put up sufficiently to curb borrowing

To reverse HPI you need the above to change. It does not look likely in the near term.

I do not have all the answers regarding the movement of house prices but am keeping an open mind. In the short to medium term I can not see a crash. Even if there is one the rampant HPI over the last few years are unlikely to restore housing back to 2004 levels.

Personally I may get back into property in the new year as to me a crash in sterling and a very real rise in inflation seem far more dangerous to my personal situation in the immediate term.

so you don't think IR's are going up for the next few years then ? :ph34r:

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so we have had another 2 years (almost) of hpi & general inflation, yet you would consider buying in 2007 even though you state that a "healthy correction" should have occurred in 2005.....what sort of correction will it be next year then..... :lol:

IMO the peak for most parts of the North in certain property categories (detached for example) was 2005.......I am seeing the same houses selling now from 2005....some even cheaper than over a year ago.

The problem is that if you live in Londinium or South East, you are not seeing what is happening to the rest of the country.

I keep seeing and hearing of people who just cannot sell their property. Good friend has a 2 bed flat in Brentford/Kew area -- has been unable to sell for 2 years. She paid top wack for it 3 years ago -- and need to recover this --- and it won't sell for £20k over the original price she bought it at. I don't actually know the figure -- but she's had to pay out repair bills, rental voids for many months, Council Tax, etc etc...

It is actually so simple for those wanting to be a FT Buyer: Just refuse to pay the stupid prices, If EVERYONE stuck together on this - the market would die almost overnight. I know this is asking a lot -- but all you FTB hopefuls out there should be organising a STOP BUYING campaign on this wonderful thing.. the World Wide Web.

Surely - it has never been so potentially easy (and potetnitally devastating to the Vested Interests) than NOW - at this point in history - in that you can contact anyone and everyone in the world for next to no cost from your desktop - and organise a STRIKE: AND - TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS - you 18-30 year olds - TO NOT BUY PROPERTY ANYWHERE - UNLESS the seller accepts a maximum of 40% of "asking price".

First Time Buyers: There's a simple way; just don't buy. If you all don't buy - the market dies.

- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=12762 -

Look at the criminal Mortgage Fraud - perpetrated by the Mortgage Lenders and Vested Interests themselves!! :

- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19113

- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3222053.stm -

- http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressrele..._mortgage.shtml -

- http://www.mortgagefraud.squarespace.com/great-britain/ -

- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry217339

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so we have had another 2 years (almost) of hpi & general inflation, yet you would consider buying in 2007 even though you state that a "healthy correction" should have occurred in 2005.....what sort of correction will it be next year then..... :lol:

IMO the peak for most parts of the North in certain property categories (detached for example) was 2005.......I am seeing the same houses selling now from 2005....some even cheaper than over a year ago.

The problem is that if you live in Londinium or South East, you are not seeing what is happening to the rest of the country.

I see you have skimmed the post and picked out the bits you want to support your arguament - have you been to realistbear school of posting?

Prior to 2005 a drop looked possible. Since then in my neck of the woods property has rocked to around 50-70K increase. By next year it is likely to increase by another 10-20K.

It will take one hell of a crash to knock 80K off property in the short term (1 -2 years), unless you are talking protracted falls over several years (which if inflation carries on as it is would decimate savings).

No I am not in the South East or London

Read the posts I have made.

I have already stated that HPI will go Y-O-Y negative in the UK in 2007 dragged down by the regions so the North and North East could well lead the way.

I have also said I will consider buying if the BOE do not raise rates significantly as INFLATION and a DEVALUATION of £ sterling are far more IMMEDIATE threads to to my current situation that a crash in house prices

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Guest barebear

I keep seeing and hearing of people who just cannot sell their property. Good friend has a 2 bed flat in Brentford/Kew area -- has been unable to sell for 2 years. She paid top wack for it 3 years ago -- and need to recover this --- and it won't sell for £20k over the original price she bought it at. I don't actually know the figure -- but she's had to pay out repair bills, rental voids for many months, Council Tax, etc etc...

It is actually so simple for those wanting to be a FT Buyer: Just refuse to pay the stupid prices, If EVERYONE stuck together on this - the market would die almost overnight. I know this is asking a lot -- but all you FTB hopefuls out there should be organising a STOP BUYING campaign on this wonderful thing.. the World Wide Web.

Surely - it has never been so potentially easy (and potetnitally devastating to the Vested Interests) than NOW - at this point in history - in that you can contact anyone and everyone in the world for next to no cost from your desktop - and organise a STRIKE: AND - TELL ALL YOUR FRIENDS - you 18-30 year olds - TO NOT BUY PROPERTY ANYWHERE - UNLESS the seller accepts a maximum of 40% of "asking price".

First Time Buyers: There's a simple way; just don't buy. If you all don't buy - the market dies.

- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=12762 -

Look at the criminal Mortgage Fraud - perpetrated by the Mortgage Lenders and Vested Interests themselves!! :

- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19113

- http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3222053.stm -

- http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressrele..._mortgage.shtml -

- http://www.mortgagefraud.squarespace.com/great-britain/ -

- http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry217339

Ah if only,I wonder what the banks would do if that happened and there was no FTB.I bet they would drop their rates for BTL big time.

Ive a feeling this could happen.I for one would be happy to get involved with any such strike as I firmly believe the young are being totally ******ed by this government.The young are our future and we certainly dont need to see anarchy because theres no incentive for people to strive towards anything.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

I see you have skimmed the post and picked out the bits you want to support your arguament - have you been to realistbear school of posting?

Prior to 2005 a drop looked possible. Since then in my neck of the woods property has rocked to around 50-70K increase. By next year it is likely to increase by another 10-20K.

It will take one hell of a crash to knock 80K off property in the short term (1 -2 years), unless you are talking protracted falls over several years (which if inflation carries on as it is would decimate savings).

No I am not in the South East or London

Read the posts I have made.

I have already stated that HPI will go Y-O-Y negative in the UK in 2007 dragged down by the regions so the North and North East could well lead the way.

I have also said I will consider buying if the BOE do not raise rates significantly as INFLATION and a DEVALUATION of £ sterling are far more IMMEDIATE threads to to my current situation that a crash in house prices

yes, of course ;)

the second bolded bit.........so you think that HPI with go yoy negative in 2007 ......so what do you think this will cause then? :P or is it different this time, the first time in history that the market will just stagnate for 10 years or so :lol:

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yes, of course ;)

the second bolded bit.........so you think that HPI with go yoy negative in 2007 ......so what do you think this will cause then? :P or is it different this time, the first time in history that the market will just stagnate for 10 years or so :lol:

Oh god I forgot how frustrating posting here was compared to theotherplace.com (edit i can not believe that fubra have cencored a competitors website - what does that say about this place!!!)

Yes I think HPI will go Y-O-Y negative by end 2007

Yes I think house prices are overvalued

Yes I think were in a bubble

Yes I think there will be a correction

Yes I think it will start in the regions this time not in London

Yes I think interest rates will rise but nowhere near enough to keep pace with inflation (edit BOE on the day of the largest rise in mortgage borrowing at the tail end of a huge boom keep rates on hold)

Yes I think sterling will be devalued alongside the dollar

Yes I think prices will fall but not by anything like 50% (without huge IR increases or a severe global recession)

Yes I believe lax money supply and accomodative interest rates are here to stay in the the short to medium term

This leads me to believe that although property is overvalued and likely to fall some way it may be a better inflation hedge than money in the bank. i would rather own property "worth" 300K that falls by 60K and then stagnates for 4 years or so in a high inflation environment than have cash festering in a bank losing its real worth as inflation rages in the wider economy.

I can not see the future just keeping my mind open so I can gauge the situation as it unfolds.

Edited by Bemused
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Oh god I forgot how frustrating posting here was compared to theotherplace.com (edit i can not believe that fubra have cencored a competitors website - what does that say about this place!!!)

Yes I think HPI will go Y-O-Y negative by end 2007

Yes I think house prices are overvalued

Yes I think were in a bubble

Yes I think there will be a correction

Yes I think it will start in the regions this time not in London

Yes I think interest rates will rise but nowhere near enough to keep pace with inflation

Yes I think sterling will be devalued alongside the dollar

Yes I think prices will fall but not by anything like 50% (without huge IR increases or a severe global recession)

Yes I believe lax money supply and accomodative interest rates are here to stay in the the short to medium term

This leads me to believe that although property is overvalued and likely to fall some way it may be a better inflation hedge than money in the bank. i would rather own property "worth" 300K that falls by 60K and then stagnates for 4 years or so in a high inflation environment than have cash festering in a bank losing its real worth as inflation rages in the wider economy.

I can not see the future just keeping my mind open so I can gauge the situation as it unfolds.

The thing about a Global Recession is that it is Highly likely if you have a crash in the USA and to a certain extent smaller countries such as the UK. Western Countries Growth is basically all down to consumer spending. Rising house prices have probably contributed 10%+ to consumer spending. Even if houses stagnate this will cause a massive drop in spending, causing your global recession. As much as people talk about the rise of the East a recession in the USA and other western countries will cause a recession in the east as well.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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