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Boe Approvals 128k


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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinv...-C5-Economics-2

Approvals -- loans agreed but not yet made -- rose to 128,000 from 127,000. That was the highest since December 2003.

The figures suggest that August's interest rate hike and expectations of a rise in November did little to curb demand for housing last month, unless it pointed to people fixing deals before borrowing costs climbed any higher.

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Excellent. That should nail on a 25bp rise in Q1 2007.

Good news indeed... if they keep rising rates, and there is no impact on the rate people are spending money, they need to increase rates more, and so it will go on until the message gets through. Unfortunately, in many cases that will be about 6 months to a year too late.

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1. These mortgages would have been agreed before the latest IR rise.

2. I suspect it is bone heads thinking they'd better buy now before rates go up.

3. How does this tally with the recent big fall in property transactions reported by the tax office ?

Could it be that all the cash buyers have dropped out ?

Still it makes for depressing reading .. what the f*** is wrong with people ... how stupid can people be ? I think I may have underestimated the stupididty of the masses.

Still I'm not buying until prices return to long term trend. If I havce to wait 4-5 years so be it .. I'm not paying fantasy prices that bear no relation to the product.

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I expect Spline to tell us that this will mean a higher rate of HPI in six months time. The earliest anyone can be calling the crash now I fear is Q3 2007

Yup, recommend that people do a search back for previous threads on this if they haven't read. Persuasive argument as to why the market is likely be well supported for the next few months.

That said this is the indicator which I am watching for a sharp fall, which I suspect may occur first half next year.

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I forgot to mention one small glimmer of hope .. from the Times .. according to RICS ...... fewer Landlords are giving instructions to surveyors i.e less houses bought for BTL. Could it be that the BTL numpties are begining to realise that there is no such thing as a free lunch? Lets hope so.

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1. These mortgages would have been agreed before the latest IR rise.

2. I suspect it is bone heads thinking they'd better buy now before rates go up.

3. How does this tally with the recent big fall in property transactions reported by the tax office ?Could it be that all the cash buyers have dropped out ?

Still it makes for depressing reading .. what the f*** is wrong with people ... how stupid can people be ? I think I may have underestimated the stupididty of the masses.

Still I'm not buying until prices return to long term trend. If I havce to wait 4-5 years so be it .. I'm not paying fantasy prices that bear no relation to the product.

I think 3 has been explained by the fact that HMRC have confirmed that they didn't count all the returns last month and will add the uncounted ones on to this month's figure. Expect an unusually high figure next month

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

The BoE October Stats For Lending To Individuals

The increase in consumer credit (£1.1 billion) was higher than in September (Table A). Net credit card lending grew

by £0.2 billion in October (lower than the £0.4 billion increase in September). Net other loans and advances rose by

£0.9 billion (higher than the increase of £0.6 billion in September). The annual growth rate of consumer credit continued

to fall, to 6.2% in October, and the three-month annualised growth rate was unchanged at 5.6%.

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I think 3 has been explained by the fact that HMRC have confirmed that they didn't count all the returns last month and will add the uncounted ones on to this month's figure. Expect an unusually high figure next month

so basically, spline's "correlation" is valueless, because the boe bods jiggle the stats anywhich way they like???

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Guest wrongmove

so basically, spline's "correlation" is valueless, because the boe bods jiggle the stats anywhich way they like???

No, the transaction figures (and the approvals) take time to compile. The BoE release a figure on the scheduled date, then if more data comes in they correct the figure to make it more accurate.

128k approvals is a huge figure - forget about YoY falls for months I'm afraid. The market is very strong at the moment, like it or not.

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128k approvals is a huge figure - forget about YoY falls for months I'm afraid. The market is very strong at the moment, like it or not.

Surely this points to strong gains in the months ahead? Indeed, should put us on a nice upward trajectory throughout, say, Q107 :)

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No, the transaction figures (and the approvals) take time to compile. The BoE release a figure on the scheduled date, then if more data comes in they correct the figure to make it more accurate.

128k approvals is a huge figure - forget about YoY falls for months I'm afraid. The market is very strong at the moment, like it or not.

128,000 approvals for house purchase in Oct is 1,000 more (0.78%) than Sep.

101,000 approvals for remortgaging in Oct is 6,000 more (5.94%) than Sep.

There is a much bigger growth in remortgaging than there is in mortgaging to buy a new house. IMHO there will be an even bigger increase in the remortgaging figures for November (due to the rate rise and threat of more rate rises).

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Guest wrongmove

128,000 approvals for house purchase in Oct is 1,000 more (0.78%) than Sep.

101,000 approvals for remortgaging in Oct is 6,000 more (5.94%) than Sep.

There is a much bigger growth in remortgaging than there is in mortgaging to buy a new house. IMHO there will be an even bigger increase in the remortgaging figures for November (due to the rate rise and threat of more rate rises).

Quite possibly, but remortgaging has no effect on house prices - it is simply shuffling debt from one lender to another, usually to get a better rate when introductory offers or fixed rate periods expire.

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Surely this points to strong gains in the months ahead? Indeed, should put us on a nice upward trajectory throughout, say, Q107 :)

We're turning Japanese...

I am very depressed. I don't mind others losing their shirts through foolish financial behaviour - but the scale now looks like it will mean the rest of us get shafted too.

And all government housing policy is designed to pump more liquidity into the system.

I think i'm just going to migrat to Allotments4all discussion boards and just talk about vegetable cultivation, otherwise i'm going to need medication fairly soon.

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Quite possibly, but remortgaging has no effect on house prices - it is simply shuffling debt from one lender to another, usually to get a better rate when introductory offers or fixed rate periods expire.

Thanks for the tip on what remortgaging means :rolleyes: The point is... is 0.7% growth in mortgage approvals for new house purchases really that amazing?

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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