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I'm Still Not Convinced (yet)


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"US House prices declining: Is Europe next?

Deutsche Bank Research

Most important, however, almost all European countries face substantial contagion risk, not only stemming from the US but also from European neighbours.....(Germany is the only low risk country)"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry484053

"Sydney and Melbourne the 2 biggest cities by far in Oz (each with twice the pop of any other city) are 10-20% below the peak in 2003, with IRs now on the rise in Oz"

"Spain - Slowdown is happening, slowest rate since 2001. Parts of Spain are seeing a 30% drop in prices"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry478590

Your 'spin' Europa is symptomatic of your desperation as a recent house buyer.

please don't quote Eurinal's pathetic spin, crash, I'm tring to ignore him. Unless he wants to tell us what kind of 'grafitti' he has on his little foxtons mini.

:lol::lol::lol:

What he seems to be doing is switching over from 'its different this time' via 'no crash yet so no crash ever' to the final 'ok it will crash, but NOT in my area'... (UK)

:lol::D:P

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Guest Cletus VanDamme

I will relax once we are yoy negative countrywide. Until then we are in the grip of a property boom and we are a lifetime away from any viable correction. It will happen and with devastating results. But the majority of us will not be posting by then. Check out the charts to see how long it takes to get from the peak to the trough.

Welcome to the realistic bull camp Baz63 (me, Europa and a few others I think)!

Cheers

Are you going to base your major life decisions on what may happen.

For me 2007 will be the year I look at buying a property again and if I see one I like and I can afford then I will buy it. I think it is very unlikely there will be a house price crash. Although some markets are falling - they are by no means crashing (i.e. 20+%).

welcome too bw

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please don't quote Eurinal's pathetic spin, crash, I'm tring to ignore him. Unless he wants to tell us what kind of 'grafitti' he has on his little foxtons mini.

:D:D:D

As a casual observer to this site I have seen the steady desperation of the bulls and VI's desperately trying to talk down the HPC. Europa - the HPC has started, period - whatever you say now will not have the slightest bit of difference to what is about to happen! The UK is part of the world economy - we are NOT immune. To suggest otherwise either suggests that you are a Little Englander with the worst case of Island Mentality Sydrome (IMS) or you work for Connells! Which one is it then?

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Well I'm not convinced of a crash either, hence I'm in the process of buying right now. Am borrowing about 4.4 times salary.

As I've said in a previous post, I am buying in Elephant & Castle in London. The market is very strong here. Houses are being snapped up because of the regeneration of the area.

In the absence of an economic shock, prices rises are likely to slow down, or become flat for a while. Although in London prices could keep climbing as we near the 2012 Olympics.

As David Smith says in today's Times:

"PS: Two years ago, in the autumn of 2004, the Daily Express ran a front page with a warning from David Miles, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist, that house prices could fall by up to 25%.

Last week, the Financial Times also led on Miles’s prediction of a housing bust, admittedly on the basis of some new research. I don’t know whether that says more about the Express or the FT.

The debate about whether house prices will crash is older than the hills. I have long taken the view that the market will not implode unless there is a serious economic accident, defined by a loss of control of monetary policy by the Bank of England — a very sharp rise in interest rates — and a big rise in unemployment.

The minutes last week of the Bank’s November meeting showed that even one of the deputy governors, Rachel Lomax, did not support the rise in Bank rate to 5%, suggesting no great pressure for big (or indeed any) hikes from here. Unemployment is up, but employment is also rising strongly, so it doesn’t really count.

Miles, a noted technical economist, has assembled a model that suggests between a third and a half of the rise in house prices over the past decade is due to speculation. People, he argues, have been drawn in by the expectation that prices will rise by 10% a year. When such hopes are dashed, prices will tumble.

Expectations are important.

The problem is that we have no information about what housebuyers expect to happen to prices and never have done Experts differ. Another top-notch technical economist, Steve Nickell, formerly of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, took the same data and concluded that house prices were not overvalued.

It is important to recognise too that Miles is predicting something that has never happened before in the UK — a housing-market crash driven by the reversal of speculative expectations. Every previous crash has been driven by real factors — unemployment, recession, higher interest rates and so on.

My view is that this is still the case, with support for prices provided rising population and limited housing supply.

Miles suggests that prices may well continue to rise for a year or two but “falling real house prices at some point are likely, but timing is very difficult to predict” and that prices could fall without damaging the economy much.

I don’t dispute that prices could fall but it will require the economy to hit the buffers. We’ve never had a housing crash in the absence of a recession. I don’t think we’re about to break the habit. "

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This recent story (November 25 2006) about China highlights how global events could affect us all...

"Chinese investment slump threatens oil prices"

http://www.ameinfo.com/103173.html

It appears that the long-standing rule that a period of high oil prices is always followed by a global recession may not have been broken after all. Rather that the sustaining of low interest rates for an extended period has delayed the onset of the inevitable recession.

The danger now is that by allowing the global economic boom to inflate for longer than in the past, the following recession will be longer and deeper than previous downturns. This is not a happy immediate outlook for oil and gas prices as global demand will fall.

Edited by dnd
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My word . . . some very bullish comments from bears :o

Finally getting with the "winning" team, I see.

Can I be included in there too?

If the crash hasnt happend in 5 years I'll be buying too.

Well I'm not convinced of a crash either, hence I'm in the process of buying right now. Am borrowing about 4.4 times salary.

As I've said in a previous post, I am buying in Elephant & Castle in London. The market is very strong here. Houses are being snapped up because of the regeneration of the area.

Wouldnt touch Elephant and Castle if I were you. Not even for 2 times salary.

Is it the worst area of London or have I just led a sheltered life?

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Don't know what's happened over the weekend . . . I mean, there's been some "good" news for the bears over the last couple of weeks. If anything, I thought their resolve would be strengthened. Having said that, the spin machine does seem remarkably resilient. News everywhere talking about the doubling of house prices by 2012 etc.

Elephant & Castle isn't THAT bad . . . compared to the rest of South London ;) Just a bit grey and seems almost entirely built from concrete with that grotesque shopping centre and more bus stops than you can shake a stick at.

Edited by tenroom
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Can I be included in there too?

If the crash hasnt happend in 5 years I'll be buying too.

Same here.

Welcome to the realistic bull camp Baz63 (me, Europa and a few others I think)!

Cheers

welcome too bw

I said the impending crash will be devastating. If that makes me a Bull then thanks for the welcome.

010104_ema6_prv.gif

post-67-1164562091.gif

Edited by Baz63
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:D:D:D

As a casual observer to this site I have seen the steady desperation of the bulls and VI's desperately trying to talk down the HPC. Europa - the HPC has started, period - whatever you say now will not have the slightest bit of difference to what is about to happen! The UK is part of the world economy - we are NOT immune. To suggest otherwise either suggests that you are a Little Englander with the worst case of Island Mentality Sydrome (IMS) or you work for Connells! Which one is it then?

A little Englander? The clue's in the avatar <_<

And thank you for informing me that the crash has started (or, crashisunderway as the bears prefer to say). I honestly think we are close to achieving consensus; the problem comes down to semantics.

I believe a crash will involve nominal falls greater than 10 per cent. What we are currently experiencing is a healthy market, with growth in the upper single figures / lower double figures. If you call that a crash then, sir, we are in complete agreement :D

"US House prices declining: Is Europe next?

Deutsche Bank Research

Most important, however, almost all European countries face substantial contagion risk, not only stemming from the US but also from European neighbours.....(Germany is the only low risk country)"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry484053

"Sydney and Melbourne the 2 biggest cities by far in Oz (each with twice the pop of any other city) are 10-20% below the peak in 2003, with IRs now on the rise in Oz"

"Spain - Slowdown is happening, slowest rate since 2001. Parts of Spain are seeing a 30% drop in prices"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry478590

Your 'spin' Europa is symptomatic of your desperation as a recent house buyer.

* sigh * The quotes above were taken from your own posts, not the Deutsche Bank report. Perhaps you should have made that clear.

Re-read the report. Slowly. Any problems, get back to me <_<

Elephant & Castle isn't THAT bad . . . compared to the rest of South London ;) Just a bit grey and seems almost entirely built from concrete with that grotesque shopping centre and more bus stops than you can shake a stick at.

Not to bad at all, plus the advantage of being in zone 1. Does seem to be a popular spot (hardly surprising given the regeneration plans). Could be a wise move.

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* sigh * The quotes above were taken from your own posts, not the Deutsche Bank report. Perhaps you should have made that clear.

"US House prices declining: Is Europe next?

Deutsche Bank Research

Most important, however, almost all European countries face substantial contagion risk, not only stemming from the US but also from European neighbours"

Above quote is on Page '1' of the DB Research.

http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNE...00000203236.PDF

....This implies that in a benign scenario, all markets might escape significant price cuts. But of course, the likelihood of such a benign scenario is decreasing with every item of bad news from the USA and with every strong house price growth year in Europe due to rising interest rates. And of course, if anything else is going awry in the world economy, don't call for the housing markets to save the economies again. They are not waiting in the wings this time......"

Above quote is on Page '7' of the DB Report.

http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNE...00000203236.PDF

Europa, you are a fool or a liar or both as the above clearly shows once again?

Edited by CrashDive
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Well I'm not convinced of a crash either, hence I'm in the process of buying right now. Am borrowing about 4.4 times salary.

As I've said in a previous post, I am buying in Elephant & Castle in London. The market is very strong here. Houses are being snapped up because of the regeneration of the area.

In the absence of an economic shock, prices rises are likely to slow down, or become flat for a while. Although in London prices could keep climbing as we near the 2012 Olympics.

4.4 x salary buying into a traffic gridlocked , crime ridden cess pit , yards from the Old Kent road , Brixton , Stockwell , Deptford Vauxhall all in walking distance , sounds nice , be careful when your out is the advice :ph34r:

" In the absence of an economic shock " etc. ...............another worthless opininon .

" Regeneration of the area " problem is it will still be the same type of people living in the area , it's the people that need regenerating not the area .

Olympics 2012 , wtf has the this white elephant of 2012 got to do with house prices , the olympics will be just a huge waste of taxpayers money .

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4.4 x salary buying into a traffic gridlocked , crime ridden cess pit , yards from the Old Kent road , Brixton , Stockwell , Deptford Vauxhall all in walking distance , sounds nice , be careful when your out is the advice :ph34r:

" In the absence of an economic shock " etc. ...............another worthless opininon .

" Regeneration of the area " problem is it will still be the same type of people living in the area , it's the people that need regenerating not the area .

Olympics 2012 , wtf has the this white elephant of 2012 got to do with house prices , the olympics will be just a huge waste of taxpayers money .

For your information I have lived in Elephant & Castle for the past 4 and a half years and never had any problems.

Yes some of the new housing will be to rehouse existing council tenants in the Heygate estate:

"The council will be working with its housing association partners to build 1,000 new homes for Heygate tenants on 14 different sites grouped into four areas around Elephant and Castle." (from council website)

Total plans include:

5,300 new homes

75,000 metres of new shopping space

five new open spaces

a series of landmark buildings

a new civic square

more than 4,000 new jobs

improvements to transport links, including a new station, upgraded tube connections, new bus and cycle lanes and better facilities for pedestrians

Therefore 4,300 of the new homes (ie the vast majority) will not be from existing residents. And there is a lot more changing as well as you can see.

Why is my opinion "worthless" - ie why is your opinion any better than anyone else's?

And my point about the Olympics is that London (more than most capital cities) will be in the world spot light, and will encourage more and more foreign investors to buy property in London. This is happening right now.

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4.4 x salary buying into a traffic gridlocked , crime ridden cess pit , yards from the Old Kent road , Brixton , Stockwell , Deptford Vauxhall all in walking distance , sounds nice , be careful when your out is the advice :ph34r:

" In the absence of an economic shock " etc. ...............another worthless opininon .

" Regeneration of the area " problem is it will still be the same type of people living in the area , it's the people that need regenerating not the area .

Olympics 2012 , wtf has the this white elephant of 2012 got to do with house prices , the olympics will be just a huge waste of taxpayers money .

Have a look at the positive effects of hosting major sporting events. Eg Sydney, Manchester, Barcelona in recent years.

The average increase above normal HPI was 18%.

Not bad...

http://www.yourmortgage.co.uk/10_news/2005/july_olympics.htm

if you don't like this link there are plenty of others saying the same thing.

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I suppose an apology was never on the cards from Europa...

Never mind he has been shown again as a fool/liar...

* sigh * The quotes above were taken from your own posts, not the Deutsche Bank report. Perhaps you should have made that clear.

"US House prices declining: Is Europe next?

Deutsche Bank Research

Most important, however, almost all European countries face substantial contagion risk, not only stemming from the US but also from European neighbours"

Above quote is on Page '1' of the DB Research.

http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNE...00000203236.PDF

....This implies that in a benign scenario, all markets might escape significant price cuts. But of course, the likelihood of such a benign scenario is decreasing with every item of bad news from the USA and with every strong house price growth year in Europe due to rising interest rates. And of course, if anything else is going awry in the world economy, don't call for the housing markets to save the economies again. They are not waiting in the wings this time......"

Above quote is on Page '7' of the DB Report.

http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNE...00000203236.PDF

Europa, you are a fool or a liar or both as the above clearly shows once again?

Edited by CrashDive
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I suppose an apology was never on the cards from Europa...

Never mind he has been shown again as a fool/liar...

So the following aren't your quotes?

"Sydney and Melbourne the 2 biggest cities by far in Oz (each with twice the pop of any other city) are 10-20% below the peak in 2003, with IRs now on the rise in Oz"

"Spain - Slowdown is happening, slowest rate since 2001. Parts of Spain are seeing a 30% drop in prices"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry478590

Your 'spin' Europa is symptomatic of your desperation as a recent house buyer.

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So you are a fool Europa and a manipulating lying one at that.

My original post #25 corrects your lying spin -

Clearly has ""US House prices declining: Is Europe next? - Deutsche Bank Research" - (the name of the report/investment bank) with the link.

The other two quotes regarding Spain and and Oz have two separate links.

it was Deutsche Bank that concluded recently that the risk to the UK housing market of contagion from the US was lower than for countries like Ireland and Spain.

"US House prices declining: Is Europe next?

Deutsche Bank Research

Most important, however, almost all European countries face substantial contagion risk, not only stemming from the US but also from European neighbours.....(Germany is the only low risk country)"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry484053

Australia's problems seem to be largely limited to Sydney and Spain has seen something like 10 per cent annual growth.

"Sydney and Melbourne the 2 biggest cities by far in Oz (each with twice the pop of any other city) are 10-20% below the peak in 2003, with IRs now on the rise in Oz"

"Spain - Slowdown is happening, slowest rate since 2001. Parts of Spain are seeing a 30% drop in prices"

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;#entry478590

Your 'spin' Europa is symptomatic of your desperation as a recent house buyer.

Edited by CrashDive
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b]Your 'spin' Europa is symptomatic of your desperation as a recent house buyer.[/b][/color]

You've posted that in bold blue text a number of times now - why are you obsessed by my recent house purchase (a purchase which has proved to be a good move to date - up around 30k since Spring)

Are you perhaps a little concerned that the crash isn't panning out as expected? Worried that the myth of the global crash has been exposed (see other thread)?

Don't worry - it's okay to feel a little unsure. But this blind devotion to the crash probably isn't helping you. :)

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