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HOLA441
Well another week goes by and still no HPC - or is there, maybe we should be talking about 'flat price crash' instead? Looking on other threads it seems that flats are losing value nationally. What a strange state of affairs in Norwich though - flats losing 1/5 of value in a year compared to the inflation seen on semis and terraces (thanks for the data Catflap). Is this just oversupply..........

As a sad old git I can confirm that this is exactly how the last crash started, oversupply of new flats coming on to the market (my first job in 1987 was designing plumbing and electrical systems for Docklands flats. The differential can only get so big before the new flat price crash starts affecting the price of old flats, then small houses, then big houses, etc. The crash has already started.

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Hi everyone

God how depressing, I've just been reading another thread - in 2002 average house price broke £100k and the BoE said prices were 'unsustainable'. Five years later we are approaching average price of £200k ... Will we be looking at £400k average prices in 2012 - I really hope not. I'm definitely having a little 'wobble' - maybe we should buy etc etc. God listen to me, hard to believe that last week I was so positive - like the media at the moment I don't know what to think! :(

Hi Kagiso and welcome to the thread, it was interesting to know that the last crash started with flat prices - thanks for your post. I'll certainly be keeping my eyes on flat prices in Norwich to keep myself focused! I also read on another thread that some landlords are putting their portfolios on the market. My Rightmove tally shows 672 properties for sale up from 620 last week (Norwich +1/2 mile 100 -200k). So heading in the right direction (unless it's just a case of estate agents leaving sold properties online). Lots of people on other threads don't take the Rightmove figures seriously, and I do see their point, but I just feel better seeing that number go up. Maybe I'll follow your lead W&S and break it down into your price bands.

Sometimes when I read the threads on this site I have a reality check and realise that if the crash comes lots of people could find themselves in really dreadful trouble, and I wouldn't wish that on anyone as I have relatives who lost out in the last crash - and I even know someone who still owes £30k in negative equity - hard to believe really. This person works hard, earns a good wage but lives completely beyond her means - renting fabulous houses, buying designer clothes etc - and it seems that she's just resigned herself to the fact that she'll never pay the debt back and that she'll never have her own home again so she might as well live for the moment even if that means being it debt her whole life. I also have quite a few friends who have done very well out of HPI - typically 'owning' 3 properties - living in one and letting out two. They work hard too and I suppose they just spotted a fabulous opportunity - most of them bought their first properties when they were single and prices were very low, watched prices rise, met eachother and released a bit of equity from each property to put down as a deposit on their family home, then let their first properties out. Since then they've watched prices continue to inflate! Lucky them I really can't begrudge them their success as I'm sure that any of us would have done the same thing if we'd been in their situation? God it's such a mess isn't it, and in some way seems like it's all just a matter of timing?

Anyway on a brighter note, I am really looking forward to coming home - it's only a short visit, then back to Croatia for a month or so before setting sail for Valencia. We've got a busy itinerary this year as we are cruising the Med this season before taking her across the Atlantic for Christmas in the Caribbean, which will be strange as I've never spent Christmas in the sun, I don't think we'll fancy roast Turkey somehow. It'll also be weird spending Christmas away from home - still life is for living and all that.

Well I'll sign off now, just wanted to say how much I enjoy reading the posts on this thread every week! It's good to see the thread attracting more people as well.

Take care everyone:)

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HOLA444

Anyone noticed that there are no quality rentals available in Norwich, and havent been for some time. I mean 4 bedroom and up there are 50-60 properties, the same ones sitting there for ages, most of these seem to be student let.

This is a far cry from a year or so ago.

Anyway check out this baby

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-663...=2&tr_t=buy

Its near me so l am keeping an eye. I mean really who would buy that ffs. Area is OK but that is taking the piss.

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HOLA445
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HOLA446
Todays's EDP Property Supplement was 116 pages - the final push before prices collapse :blink:

Another bumper edition and a great VI news article from TOPS in the centre, the headline 'Many Opportunities for Buy-to-Let Investors' - how I laughed at that one :lol::lol:

Here are some of the best quotes :rolleyes:

He says how many investors prefer to purchase suitable properties from auction as they feel this is the best way to buy!... and how the forthcoming TOPS auction at Dunston Hall has more than 40 such properties that would be suitable for investment buyers. Well there's a happy coincidence!!

Newbie buy-to-let lambs - this way to the slaughter house please :lol:

This is a major and unique opportunity for Norwich investors, and I urge new prospective landlords to take this chance to secure a suitable property. The auction will include the complete local portfolio of a well-respected investor who has been active in the buy-to-let market for over 10 years.

Priceless, if the investor is so well-respected, why exactly is he selling off his whole portfolio at auction? If I was a clever BTL landlord with a large portfolio I would certainly be flogging the lot off in the present market. But I would do it by spreading the properties round various estate agents, pricing my properties slightly below the cheapest equivalent. This would get me quick sales at 5-10% below current market rates. At auction I would be lucky to get 80% of market value, could be 60-70%. The only logical explanation is that the well-respected investor has not quite got the full respect of his bank manager on account of his having gone bust.

Does the auction house give details of the seller? Can anybody check the auction selling prices and compare these to the original sale prices?

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HOLA447

Looking at the list from the link - http://www.tops-property.co.uk/auctionhous...ctions_new1.asp - there are a couple of block sales, perhaps...?

x7 - Sprowston Road - all close together.

x4 - Violet Road - close together

x3 - Lilian Close - close together

I've not noticed examples like this in the past and would assume it's 2% BTL Portman interest only mortgage time over. I'd bail out and cash in if I could if I was in that situation.

I also hope this trend continues. :rolleyes:

Time to smell the BTL greed and fear.

Edited by music man
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HOLA448

39 properties is a huge amount especially when one considers that people like this guy will not be buying any more for the foreseeable future, in fact the likelihood is professionals will be selling their properties.

Supply is up and demand is down with the swing of these professional BTL'ers.

Will the amateurs really plug this hole? I can't see them doing so for long with news on sub-prime industry causing a credit crunch and in the Norwich Flats market there is even a yoy negative. (-2%). Terraces are -5% yoy.

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

If what you say is true this guy is putting on a months supply of flats on the market in one hit - this year really is turning out to be a good one.

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HOLA449

I've bought a copy of the EDP every Friday for the past year or so. Every week I would scan the pages carefully trying to get a feel of how prices were moving. I've got fed up with that now but still buy the paper. I find myself turning straight to the TOPS page to read their latest advise. You know its going to be good & always makes me smile if not laugh out loud. You've got to admire their enthusiasm.

I do think it’s a bit naughty however for a agent acting on behalf of sellers to try and give advise to buyers. They just want the money & are going to say anything to get it.

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HOLA4410

EDP property supplement 30 March 2007 at 124 pages - yet another record.

No supply issues then...

The tide is turning and we'll get there in the end guys and gals, fingers crossed.

Oh and Oil is my barometer so this week has been relevant with the Iran issues and $65 ppb of Oil, highest this year so far.

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HOLA4411

Just a thought - couldn't the increased size of the property section be due to Estate Agents having more cash to throw at advertising due to the property boom? Their thoughts might be speculate to accumulate? So bigger property pages might not necessarily mean they are stuggling, merely maximising their chances of selling more houses...

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HOLA4412
Just a thought - couldn't the increased size of the property section be due to Estate Agents having more cash to throw at advertising due to the property boom? Their thoughts might be speculate to accumulate? So bigger property pages might not necessarily mean they are stuggling, merely maximising their chances of selling more houses...

Er, no.

Of course you might be joking, in which case :D

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HOLA4413
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HOLA4414

I guess Norfolk could be one of the first areas to show house price decline as it is an area of low wages and little industry. Maybe this is the start of things to come nationwide? My parents live in Holt in Norfolk and I know that prices have gone crazy there in recent years - I guess this must be due mainly to 2nd home owners who want a pad near the coast - to the detriment of priced out locals.

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HOLA4415

Don't talk to yourself again! I'm back from hols and promise to listen!

Things have been busy here while I've been away!! I look forward to the auction this week too- should be interesting...

I tallied the properties in April 5th pages in the evening news: (It was 60 pages long this week)

Total properties: 908

Up to £120K: 27 (3%)

120K - 160K: 156 (17.2%)

160K - 250K: 443 (48.8%)

New on: 253 (27.9%)

New Price:54 (5.9%)

No Chain: 121 (13.3%)

Surprisingly reavailable:3

POA:3

Incentives available:6

Its a shame, as I had been hoping that I'd come back and there would have been a positive change - in fact it would seem that the opposite has happened - a larger percentage of properties are above £250K.

Its interesting you mentioned Howards having 14 pages in the EDP, and how many of them are chain free- in the NEN, Howards has 9 pages (15% of the pages!) out of the 181 houses advertised through Howards, only 31 of them were chain free - they must use different tactics in different papers!

I went to USA for the holiday - it was interesting to see the situation unravelling there - it's very widely acknowledged that the market is crashing, and I saw a couple of cartoons that I wish I'd ripped out of the papers from over there that summed up the situation perfectly (one of them being a house with MEW Goldminings co sign out the front, and you could see the mine was right under the house, with nothing keeping the house up, with expensive holidays and nice cars in the mine wagons coming out of the mine...)

I see the budget didn't change much for stamp duties etc, and I see that all the EAs are doing a big push to get people to put their houses on the market before HIPs starts ("take our 3 month HIP loss programme...", etc) but I also see that stuff isn't shifting - even the ones at the cheaper end of the market are still there from over a month ago - if things were really selling like hot cakes, and people were desperate, then these are the ones that would've sold...

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HOLA4416

Had a great homecoming visit - but had to laugh when I read your chavtowns link yesterday CATFLAP because walking through the city centre my bf had commented on the increase in chavs since our last visit! Felt a bit panicky though - prices are really out of control, I'm not in the least surprised that Norwich is second only to Belfast in HPI.

here are the Rightmove stats for Norwich + 1/2 mile

up to 120k 52

120k - 160k 300

160k - 250k 729

Noticed about 5 properties for sale on Muriel Rd ranging from 167k to 192k - seems alot for one road in the GT?

Also this 2 bed property - open house for an hour - be interesting to see how much it sells for and whether it will be much more than the 199k asking price (another thread discusses EAs using this type of arrangement to encourage competitive spirit amongst buyers to get offers higher than the asking price):

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-148...se&tr_t=buy

Back in sunny Croatia now, will really be sorry to leave in May. Still variety is the spice of life.

Take care everyone

Edited by saffron
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HOLA4417

Hi Catflap! How was the Fred Harrison book?

RE the "Chain free" question - I'd thought about that before, but in the end, came to the conclusion that no forward chain etc, pretty much had to mean chain free, as even if the house sellers were downsizing it would still be a chain above or ahead of the seller.

The results are somewhat skewed by certain estate agents not advertising whether or not their properties for sale are chain free - I don't believe for one second that out of the 56 abbots properties in the last supplement, that only one was chain free!

I think houses are sticking now - there are some that have been in the paper since pretty much the beginning of the year, even ones that I would have thought were popular areas. And the increase by 20% over the last year is all lies and statistics - I bet those precious executive apartments have played more than their fair share in number fiddling... Like you say, there are certain sections of the market where properties haven't shifted much price wise!

I honestly don't know how anyone is affording houses now - even the arguments that generally people buy with two salaries are going out the window now - if the average salary is £20k, twice is £40k, and so its 5 times the joint salary to get an average house... it just doesn't add up - there used to be reduced limits on the joint income multiples :angry: It's all incredibly irresponsible!

While I was away, I saw a house flipping programme US style - it was fascinating to see! They had one particular company that bought a whole load of houses from a landlord that hadn't done any upkeep to the houses, they shifted the tenants out for a while, and did the houses up, and when they were sold, the tenants got 1st refusal on buying their house. I was sat arguing with the TV (If you can only afford to rent, then how are you going to afford to buy the house now its all done up?!) It was amazing - the flippers got a 50% profit in their money, and most of the tenants bought the houses - couldn't work our how it was done, until you see that not only did the flippers sell the houses, they also arranged the mortgages for the buying tenants... Its great all round - until the tenants can't afford to pay the mortgage - the flippers have original debt of the house, and the mortgage debt - I don't think this happens here yet, so maybe some BTLers a missing a trick?!

Rant over.... :rolleyes: and spleen vented!

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HOLA4418

Hi All,

I agree with you I have sold my house with a view to trading up and it seems now if your in my area (NR2) you need over £50,000 for an extra bedroom.

We started off looking for a house and they decided to look at flats and maybe have some extra money in the bank however pricing seems to picked from the air based on the perception of a boom in Jan rather than the reality which was that a few near million sales distorted the low volumes.

From the 10+ houses that we have looked at only two have been sold which where both in Anchor Quay, one for 260 and the other (in much worse condition) for in excess of 270,000 however I have yet to see the new folks in these houses months after the sale was supposedly agreed.

As for flats I have been round all the new developments and I have noticed that the car parks have seemed very empty especially chapelfield which for £275,000 for a 1200 sq ft 3 bed is possibly the most expensive development. You just don't see the people you should see if the development is sold to the levels stated and this is repeated in most of the other developments, from looking round it does seem that a lot of people are buying to sit. Also if there was a shortage why is the lovely new hospital development taking so long? and why are some of the new flats their already reduced by their owners less than a year from purchase?

To give another perspective I have a one bed flat in the city which I rented out for £600 furnished (bought £55K few years earlier) almost seven years ago now I would be lucky to get £550 for the same flat (£150K) in better decor which for me sums up why somthing is going to have to change round here.

Their doesn't need to be a fall in house prices for it all to end in Norwich (especially flats) just a pause in the rises as their is nothing worse than having a flat bleeding money (as they are at the moment) smart investors bail at the top and the really smart investors bought at the bottom, so for many of the investors can still bail out less 20-30% and cash a nice profit.

Also it is obvious that Norwich Union have a large influx of Indian staff at the moment which my letting agent friends tell me is underpinning lots of rentals in the city. Imagine when this project is completeed you have the double whammy of job outsoucing and the indian staff leaving.

So unless I get a great discount I am STR and becoming a spectator.

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HOLA4419

Hello! Fromage Frais - thank you for the anecdotals - it's really interesting to hear what is actually happening at these places! When did you look round the developments? It will be interesting if you would let us know how long the ten finally take to sell! I enjoy speculating about these things, and every now and then think I should go and have a snoop round the apartments, but have never gotten around to it. The comment about how empty the car parks are is a useful indicator - it's surprising to think that so many could be Buy to Sit - I believe that after 6 months you have to pay council tax on the property - so presumably, there are "investors" that are either expecting to turn a profit by reselling within 6 months, or are expecting that even with paying the council tax (and all the other expenses!) that they'll still make a profit down the line - that is truly amazing. The Indian staff influx (and the subsequent post-training outflux/deflux) is also a bit of a potential problem for BTLers...

Catflap - Maybe no chain properties are at about 20% in total, but I'll stay on the shy side, and go a bit under that, and hazard a guess at 15% (a bit above what the newspaper says, but not so much so - I'm sure that most places for sale are generally by ordinary people going about normal(ish) housing transactions) I think that it could be higher, but no chain nowadays can mean several things - people financially distressed, BTLers getting out of the market, people moving in with each other (potentially to save money...), etc, whereas even 10 years ago, if a house was no chain, the automatic assumption would be that the house was reposessed. even at 15 - 20% - that's a BIG chunk of the market.

I've been wondering about the title "new instruction" on house ads - whether I've been wrong to count them as "new" to the market houses, when they could actually mean "same house, new instructions for sale" - could this be a more discreet way of saying "new lower price"? - If someone knows, I'd appreciate the clarification on that one!

I didn't count houses this week - had a quick flip through - it was 64 pages long - but there were new EAs included - whereas its normally just Norwich houses, with a few coastal properties, There were ads from EAs in Wymondham, Attleborough and surrounding areas - which means really there were the usual 60 pages of Norwich ads....

The TOPS auction was a surprise - I really thought that with that many properties, lower prices would have been achieved. If I get time, I'll look a few up and see how much the LL bought them for initially.

Thanks for the BBC link - I watched studiously on Thursday when it was expected to be on, but biscuit decorating took over Friday, and I completely forgot!! Financial Planner did a great job, and I have to say that maybe the beeb were, for once, a tad biased toward HPC... :o they didn't skimp on the screenshot of the HPC website!!

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HOLA4420

Just had a walk passed the Tops auction office and looked at the website and I was a bit shocked good luck to the guy who sold them i think he timed it to perfection.

Just looking at the property pages I noticed that some of the properties are being reduced by stealth for example a fed brick double fronted house at the bottom of Earlham road (abbotts) has been cut from £265,000 to £255,000 within a couple of weeks along with a few flats especially those down the end of Kings Street which are layou out in little yards.

Looking on the home.co.uk price/sales chart it does look like things are slowing down.

Summary of Properties Sold in Norwich in January 2007

Total properties sold: 265

Average price of properties sold: £185,472

Property Sale Prices by Type in Norwich in January 2007

No. of properties Average price Median price

Flat 47 £145,967 £124,950

Detached 46 £265,048 £225,500

Semi-detached 100 £181,268 £164,975

Terraced 72 £166,260 £145,000

Summary of Properties Sold in Norwich in February 2007

Total properties sold: 71

Average price of properties sold: £164,628

Property Sale Prices by Type in Norwich in February 2007

No. of properties Average price Median price

Flat 12 £103,608 £109,500

Detached 17 £226,465 £217,000

Semi-detached 22 £160,794 £153,500

Terraced 20 £152,897 £141,750

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/sold_house_pr...2&year=2007

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HOLA4421

OK, tonight's Evening News property supplement was a staggering SEVENTY TWO pages :blink: !! The largest its been before is 64 pages. Now I have to say that tonights edition included 3 pages of (vastly overpriced) foreign property (the Phillipines for £250k, Hungary for Eur 309k, and a very special property in LA, california for $10.9 million... although the main ad on the foreign pages says that its "£2 to a $1 (well, nearly)" so maybe their prices are just as muddled...!) not including those, it still makes it 69 pages...

I have to say I think I saw a few (still overpriced) gems in the paper - and I also think that those apartments might start to be coming down in price. There were also a couple of HMOs for sale in the paper, so it looks like a few more landlords getting out of the game for one reason or another - including a stretch of 4 golden triangle properties, each bedroom currently rented for £252/month...

I hadn't thought about increasing page volume when I started counting houses!

Total properties: 1039

Under £120k: 31 (3.0%)

£120K - £160K: 160 (15.4%)

£160K - £250K: 515 (49.6%)

New on: 294 (28.3%)

New Price: 82 (7.9%)

No chain: 180 (17.3%)

Reavailable: 2

POA: 5

Incentives offered: 4

So new price category has gone up from 5.9% to 7.9%, and No chain has gone up from 13.3% to 17.3% - I would say both of those are considerable rises in 2 weeks, and when you look back to January 25th, New on was at 24.5% of the market, New price was 3.1% of the market, and No chain was 13.8% - so increases all round - still no increase in the proportion of cheaper houses though :( .

Fromage - Thanks for the home.co.uk pages - considering January and February are slow months anyway - when you compare it to last year you can really see that Jan 2007 wasn't that good, so Feb 2007 was V V poor!

Sentiment is definitely turning, and if the pace keeps up, then those home.co.uk results could look just as bad (or good, depending on how you look at these things! ;) ) over the coming months.

I'm amazed that they're already lining up properties for the next TOPS auction - 25th May - so far more expensive, big expensive family homes, and one house on Dereham road GP £350 - 400K, with 14 letting rooms!

Catflap - don't let the property prices get you down! Like you say, eventually it'll be worth half the price it is now, and you'll be one of the people in an excellent position to buy when it is - not everyone will have a hefty deposit, and not everyone will be able to get the credit needed either. Look at the prices, laugh and then move on! I came across some old property brochures from 2005 this week, I checked their final sale prices online - all but one was sold for considerably below the asking price, and only about 50% of them had actually sold - the prices in the paper are meaningless, even today!

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HOLA4422

Last time I went to watch Norwich City play, the new flats behind the River End Stand were almost finished. I`m just wondering if they`re all occupied yet? The ones that face the back of the stand must be incredibly dark inside due to the 360 degree 24 hour shadow. What with that and match days, I wouldn`t want to live there.

The EDP have been ramping property and mortgages again this week. Could it be something to do with their 124 page property supplement straining the dowel joints in my paper rack?

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HOLA4423

What about the Chapper's flats (Chapelfield). I've yet to see a light on in that place.

Also what about the old georgian place consisting of 6 flats, opposite dentists near Surrey st. Thats had a JSM for rent and for sale sign outside since 'always'?

this is like flickr but with property. :lol:

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HOLA4424
What about the Chapper's flats (Chapelfield). I've yet to see a light on in that place.

Also what about the old georgian place consisting of 6 flats, opposite dentists near Surrey st. Thats had a JSM for rent and for sale sign outside since 'always'?

this is like flickr but with property. :lol:

Not really familiar with those places. All those places on Riverside though, the ones across the Wensum from the Ferryboat Inn, look like they will be the slums of tomorrow. The brickwork is so poor, I`d be suprised if they`re still standing in 50 years` time. :lol:

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HOLA4425

hi everyone in norwich/norfolk

i don't post on here too often but i do read the site a lot (in work time that's why i dont' post!!!). I live about 10 miles from norwich, and am ever despairing of ever being able to get on the ladder. Even though I seem to earn below lots of posters on this site, I still earn well in excess of the average for the county but don't seem to be able to afford anything much in the area of my son's school which means I'm consigned to renting and saving. Am ok with that for a while, but seems to have been goin on forever! however, am a definite believer that this cannot go on forever - i have a team of people and none of them can afford to buy even a starter home as they all have fairly standard wages for administration office staff in the county which seems bizarre- so I really cannot understand for the life of me how the market in norfolk keeps on going!!!!

i live near RAF coltishall and the houses they've sold off recently are awful! real rubbish, badly built and badly finished - bathrooms and kitchens are years old and need replacing. All of the ones for sale recently have sold and I know some people who've bought them - they are all in their 20's and with join incomes have had to borrow to the hilt, plus have all had loads of help from their parents too.

re Norwich - was in the city recently at an event at Carrow road - didnt really see many signs of occupation at those flats, and i agree with earlier post - some of them look awfully dark adn have rubbish views.

Sorry, this seems to have been a bit of a rambling post, but wanted to say that i do really enjoy reading this Norwich/norfolk thread, esp the analysis of the EDP - I used to spend ages analysin the reduced/no chain adverts, but have lost heart a bit recently, so really great to read.

rgds

Helen

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