cash_buyer Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 I sold to rent in July of 04. A number of my close friends have all traded up to larger houses since that time. At all of their house warming parties they teased me by asking me what happened to the crash that I warned them about. This would be followed up by them gloating about last months percentage increase in house prices. Until recently I would reply by pointing our that the segment of the market that I have been closely tracking has not risen at all and would give them references to house on houseprices.co.uk that have sold for less than they did in 2001. However, I have to admit that I have seen a change in the last month both in the speed that sensibily priced properties are being sold and in the confident way the EAs are now talking. I am sure this is due to an overspill from London along with people trying to beat the rate rise. I am still confident that the market will crash or correct soon for the following reasons: 1. Since this time last year a number of housing markets have started to decline - The US, Australia, the upper segments of South Africa and more recently Spain. It seems that it is only the UK that is still growing. 2. Interest rates are now at 5%. This will reduce the amount people can spend on monthly payments. I know people will say that last time around interest rates reached 15% but back then, we had MIRAS tax relief which gave a 40% discount for people in the higher tax band. 3. The level of bankruptcies are rising very fast. This coupled the increasing amount of BLTs being sold via auction will IMHO have an impact on prices. 4. FTBs are are at an all time low. 5. The average house price to average income is at an all time high. 6. People were warning that the tech stocks were over valued for a two/three years before the bubble burst. I remember everyone saying that "it was different this time around. The internet has changed that way we will do business etc.". Now none of the former tech companies that still survive have got anywhere near that their former price levels. For all of these reasons I am prepared to sit it out for one more year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest The_Oldie Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 However, I have to admit that I have seen a change in the last month both in the speed that sensibily priced properties are being sold and in the confident way the EAs are now talking. I am sure this is due to an overspill from London along with people trying to beat the rate rise. Last night, my wife dug out the details on two houses we viewed last year. House 1, asking price mid 2005 £349,995, asking price on Rightmove today £335,000. House 2, asking price mid 2005 £304,995, asking price on Rightmove today £285,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 At all of their house warming parties they teased me by asking me what happened to the crash that I warned them about. In case you hadn't already guessed - these are not 'friends'... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles_Darke Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 Last night, my wife dug out the details on two houses we viewed last year. House 1, asking price mid 2005 £349,995, asking price on Rightmove today £335,000. House 2, asking price mid 2005 £304,995, asking price on Rightmove today £285,000. Self-selecting sample. Those that are still around to be compared are obviously the ones that need to be reduced to sell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
?...! Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 (edited) I think you brilliantly typify the man who suspects something is amiss but has doubts about your assertion. Well the world is not a mysterious place. Seemingly inexplicable things happen every day, by design. The house market in the UK is a mere side effect of various things going on around the world. Learn what they are, how they affect you, who is conducting them and how to predict them and you won't have to worry about "waiting one more year" ever again. I'm not going to give you any golden answer to your friends retort, but if you learn why things are the way they are, you will know you are right rather than simply suspect you are right. . Edited November 13, 2006 by ?...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 However, I have to admit that I have seen a change in the last month both in the speed that sensibily priced properties are being sold and in the confident way the EAs are now talking. I am sure this is due to an overspill from London along with people trying to beat the rate rise. What area?I'm in the North of the East Midlands and feel that there must be a ripple from London eventually since prices have been stuck since 2004. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wall come tumbling down Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 Last night, my wife dug out the details on two houses we viewed last year. House 1, asking price mid 2005 £349,995, asking price on Rightmove today £335,000. House 2, asking price mid 2005 £304,995, asking price on Rightmove today £285,000. House near me. Has been up for sale for over two years. Initial asking price £149,995 Now £124,995 Not even a glimmer of selling it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 I know a couple who are planning to split but couldn't afford to because of house prices - just last week sold for £230,000 - they originally wanted £250,000 - been on the market for over a year They've got £75,000 each after paying off the mortgage - one of they has just put a deposit down on a new house... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PropertyGuru Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 It's no surprise. Looks like the last blip up before the Q1 2007 'event' PS - friends are allowed to tease you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 PS - friends are allowed to tease you. ...for 2 years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bug16 Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 Self-selecting sample. Those that are still around to be compared are obviously the ones that need to be reduced to sell. If I look at properties around a half mile area where I live on www.houseprices.co.uk all properties are dropping on average 10k every six months and have been since 2004, which seems to be the peak. Where I'm looking is handy because it's pretty much all BTL properties so they change hands frequently enough to see the "real" market happening from month to month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Shedfish Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 If I look at properties around a half mile area where I live on www.houseprices.co.uk all properties are dropping on average 10k every six months and have been since 2004, which seems to be the peak. same here. i've watched houses take a year to sell, seen prices fall, the usual. i'm seeing property on RM listed as STC, that went on the land reg. as sold 3 months ago as another example - the poshest area in town, this house 212k is unusually cheap for this area. if i had 200k i'd put in an offer. a friend paid 270 for a place identical to this late last year, yards away. the 212k one has been on now for at least 7 months, without a sniff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 I know people will say that last time around interest rates reached 15% People who say this conveniently ignore that this time, rates fell to 3.5%. Last time the 80s low was 8%. Nowhere near! Do it on percentages. Last time's famous rate raise was +87% from the low. Today, rates at 5% gives us a raise of +43% from the low. It's no wonder some people are going bust already. It's no wonder the number of people going bust isn't yet up to 1990s levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I Told You So Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 Pretty much everyone I know is aware of my HPC view and have taken great pleasure in the last year or so pointing out rising prices and having a good old giggle at my expense. Funny how recently the laughter has stopped and a few worried faces are appearing. Is that due to the last two rates rises with more in the pipeline Most people would not accept that rates would rise last week until it happened. As someone said recently and I now love to repeat "the crash has merely been delayed" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Willy Weasel Posted November 13, 2006 Share Posted November 13, 2006 Pretty much everyone I know is aware of my HPC view and have taken great pleasure in the last year or so pointing out rising prices and having a good old giggle at my expense. Funny how recently the laughter has stopped and a few worried faces are appearing. Is that due to the last two rates rises with more in the pipeline Most people would not accept that rates would rise last week until it happened. As someone said recently and I now love to repeat "the crash has merely been delayed" Whenever I talk about the forthcoming crash I'm also met with the reply "You've been telling us that for 2 years" but I'm also finding that all the EAs I know are describing the market as "dead". I can sense that sentiment is turning but I think the crucial test will be to see whether things pick up again in the Spring as this time of year is always quiet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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