Northern Ireland

[talksalot81]

A guy on MSE is suggesting a figure of 4% in December... havent seen the source but I am unsurprised really. To be honest as much as I know the market must change pretty soon, Im going to be a bit shocked when it actually happens.

[azogar]

A guy on MSE is suggesting a figure of 4% in December... havent seen the source but I am unsurprised really. To be honest as much as I know the market must change pretty soon, Im going to be a bit shocked when it actually happens.

using the nationwide data the last quarter was 13.24%, so I suppose it is probable (or rather possible) that Dec alone hit 4%

whereas the worm has turned in the south - which was just neg in the last quart if i remember right - any links for historical south price movements?

Edited January 16, 2007 by prophet-profit

[headmelter]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6265287.stm

Article posted on the news blog page indicates a 4% increase for Dec.

Oh the fools....the fools.

A fool and his/her money are easy parted.

[talksalot81]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/6265287.stm

Article posted on the news blog page indicates a 4% increase for Dec.

Oh the fools....the fools.

A fool and his/her money are easy parted.

Thank you.

I can easily see how it is all happening. My Fiancee is not stupid by any means but is absolutely fixed on the necessity to buy a house. It doesnt matter how many sums and how many proofs I give, the bank tell her something different about how much money we can get and they are the 'experts'.

[headmelter]

Talksalot,

As I'm sure you are aware the banks job is to generate business..... and profits.

Hold your nerve, they will tell you anything to get you to sign on the dotted line, but be confident in the knowledge the bubble is nearly at full capacity and you will reap your just rewards.

[edwardbear]

What I now find odd about back home now is how leases always seem to be short term, often only 12 months at a time. This must have a very temporary feel about it and one of my theories is that this is part of what fuels the mad rush or in your case slippery slide to buy. Why not get sorted with a longterm lease, maybe on an unfurnished place if that's easier to get, and stall your fiancee by shopping around for a bit of tasteful furniture that'll go well with that house you can choose out at your leisure and buy someday when prices return to nearly-sane levels?

[azogar]

What I now find odd about back home now is how leases always seem to be short term, often only 12 months at a time. This must have a very temporary feel about it and one of my theories is that this is part of what fuels the mad rush or in your case slippery slide to buy. Why not get sorted with a longterm lease, maybe on an unfurnished place if that's easier to get, and stall your fiancee by shopping around for a bit of tasteful furniture that'll go well with that house you can choose out at your leisure and buy someday when prices return to nearly-sane levels?

The modern shorthold assured tennacy agreement is usually done on a 6-month rolling basis; whereas you might actually sign an agreement for 6 months you could rent the same property for 3 years etc

obviously, this depends on the landlord but most tennant / landlord contracts are STAs these days in both UK and Ireland

[edwardbear]

The modern shorthold assured tennacy agreement is usually done on a 6-month rolling basis; whereas you might actually sign an agreement for 6 months you could rent the same property for 3 years etc

obviously, this depends on the landlord but most tennant / landlord contracts are STAs these days in both UK and Ireland

well what use is that, a contract that runs out every 6 months but can probably be renewed. Wouldn't like a job with that contract.

I'd prefer long term, with a set notice period if I want to leave.

[azogar]

well what use is that, a contract that runs out every 6 months but can probably be renewed. Wouldn't like a job with that contract.

I'd prefer long term, with a set notice period if I want to leave.

The 6 - month STA was brought in a few (edit - well a bit more than a few) years back to improve LLs rights to evict problem tennants

I probably threw you with my original description; you only sign one contract (ie not every 6 months)

but let's say for example that after 12 months you don't pay any more rent, the LL can get you out of the prop in 6 months after going through the motions etc.

usually on a STA you have to give 2 months notice when you want out (after a min. 6 months) and vice-versa with regard to the LL (if he want's you out)

Edited January 17, 2007 by prophet-profit

[edwardbear]

Thanks I understand now, but that means the landlord can also end the contract with two months notice at any time, after min. 6 months? Don't like the sound of that.

[azogar]

Thanks I understand now, but that means the landlord can also end the contract with two months notice at any time, after min. 6 months? Don't like the sound of that.

yep that's about the size of it (allthough, I think the LL can evict you in 2 months after the initial 6 moths has expired, anyone? instead of six months - basically your point)

there's loads of horror stories in the rentals section

such as: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...p;hl=moving+out

From this thread........

I had a similar situtation months ago...

I came to the end of my initial 6 month contract, and wanted to stay on in a continuing

basis. I was a good tenant, on good terms with everyone and was served an eviction notice

straight away after the 6 months had ended...

Was a bit peeved as I was then, loking to purchase a property so needed to stay in the house

for maybe 2 or three months longer whilst it all happened, so was looking for a bit of goodwill.

Apparantly he wanted someone in the house on a more permanent basis and not on an ad-hoc

arrangement, so it did sour things, but he was entitled to do so under the current law, so not a

lot i could have done about it really. Shabby personal skills IMHO...

In relation to your situtaion, it sounds youre stuck between a rock and a hard place so begin to

look elsewhere asap if I were you...It says volumes about the way he/they treat people.

Edited January 17, 2007 by prophet-profit

[talksalot81]

What I now find odd about back home now is how leases always seem to be short term, often only 12 months at a time. This must have a very temporary feel about it and one of my theories is that this is part of what fuels the mad rush or in your case slippery slide to buy. Why not get sorted with a longterm lease, maybe on an unfurnished place if that's easier to get, and stall your fiancee by shopping around for a bit of tasteful furniture that'll go well with that house you can choose out at your leisure and buy someday when prices return to nearly-sane levels?

Well Im rather hoping to get into renting an unfurnished place but for sure it will be no more than 6 months at first attempt. In honesty my job (even though well paid) is a million miles from certain and I would rather like to get this contract out of the way. It seems only reasonable to me that I only take on a long term debt when I have a long term repayment strategy!

[edwardbear]

Well Im rather hoping to get into renting an unfurnished place but for sure it will be no more than 6 months at first attempt. In honesty my job (even though well paid) is a million miles from certain and I would rather like to get this contract out of the way. It seems only reasonable to me that I only take on a long term debt when I have a long term repayment strategy!

In the past NI was at least fairly cheap, but the higher prices go the more expensive it all gets to sell up and move as well so I wouldn't want to rush into buying if it's a large debt.

Edited January 17, 2007 by edwardbear

[edwardbear]

edit

Edited January 17, 2007 by edwardbear

[talksalot81]

In the past NI was at least fairly cheap, but the higher prices go the more expensive it all gets to sell up and move as well so I wouldn't want to rush into buying if it's a large debt.

Oh certainly you are right. Dont get me wrong, I am very much against purchasing at the moment but really need a way to convince my fiancee to trust me! You would think that an analytical PhD might allow me some trust!

[azogar]

Oh certainly you are right. Dont get me wrong, I am very much against purchasing at the moment but really need a way to convince my fiancee to trust me! You would think that an analytical PhD might allow me some trust!

The fiancee/partner/wife wants to buy syndrome is a tricky one: sometimes the common sense arguments are forefeited because the relationship is suffering (which let's face is it, is a price worth paying in cetain situations)

However, IMHO, you could try the 'stagnant market - let's wait and see' argument.

If in the following months NI HPs are directionless (i.e +/- a percent or two), you could say that by not buying now you are not really losing out in the short term because HP gains are not occuring.

Of course, there is a counter argument to this (what if they go up!)

The truth is of course without a crystal ball no one knows; however, I would look to the republic market for the lead (i.e. whatever happens in the south happens in the north 6 months or so later)

Whereas this argument is not steadfast, it may buy you some time and (again) IMHO, I truly believe the NI HPs are taking their lead from the south far more than England etc. (at the moment - and for the last few years anyway).

Hence, with stagnation now in the south and possible falls, you're sorted!!!!!

Edited January 17, 2007 by prophet-profit

[Ro-Jaws]

Hi,

Long time lurker here from Belfast - finally decided to join in because I started to see more people from this part of the world posting about HPI.

My first post was just a wee introduction on the Welcome Thread.

Yeah... I know of a one instance of where gazumping has occurred to someone... just before the sale was meant to finally complete the vendor asked for another 25K... i.e. reflecting how much HPI had accrued in the three months since 'Sale Agreed'. They didn't go for it [Good for them!] - This was about 4 months ago though... but the house market over here is still one of the bullish about in these islands, given the price increases of last year. I've tried explaining to friends/colleagues that the more prices go up due to speculation... there's consequently more risk of a crash/downturn. But next to nobody accepts that argument [well to date anyways...].

I don't buy into the argument that you can't loose on property or that prices will just plateau.... the market will turn... people don't have more money all of a sudden... they're just borrowing more. The question is when & by how much. Northern Ireland seems to have been last in to this round of HPI... may just mean it gets hit all the harder in the end.

[talksalot81]

The fiancee/partner/wife wants to buy syndrome is a tricky one: sometimes the common sense arguments are forefeited because the relationship is suffering (which let's face is it, is a price worth paying in cetain situations)

However, IMHO, you could try the 'stagnant market - let's wait and see' argument.

If in the following months NI HPs are directionless (i.e +/- a percent or two), you could say that by not buying now you are not really losing out in the short term because HP gains are not occuring.

Of course, there is a counter argument to this (what if they go up!)

The truth is of course without a crystal ball no one knows; however, I would look to the republic market for the lead (i.e. whatever happens in the south happens in the north 6 months or so later)

Whereas this argument is not steadfast, it may buy you some time and (again) IMHO, I truly believe the NI HPs are taking their lead from the south far more than England etc. (at the moment - and for the last few years anyway).

Hence, with stagnation now in the south and possible falls, you're sorted!!!!!

As noted by Dec 4% odds rise, I am rather concerned that we are not going to see the market 'stagnating' in the short term. However this just makes me more convinced of my view because the higher the market gets, the less able the population is to service it and the further it could fall.

At the end of it,I am a stubborn sod and we cannot get close to buying without my income - so it aint happening until I am happy!

[headmelter]

Welcome to the party ro jaws,

I also know of someone who was gazumped approx 6 months ago somewhere in the region of 25-30k, they also did not go for it. The property was put back on the market at the increased price and as far as I know was sold presumably at the asking price or above. The vendor in question was downsizing to a flat so it was well worth it for her. Mind you it didn't half piss my mate off as the proposal was put to him the day before contracts were due to be signed. He has just moved but not to the area he had originally wanted as he hadbeen priced out. He and his partner are now mortgaged to the max she is happy and he is very nervous.

[headmelter]

As noted by Dec 4% odds rise, I am rather concerned that we are not going to see the market 'stagnating' in the short term. However this just makes me more convinced of my view because the higher the market gets, the less able the population is to service it and the further it could fall.

At the end of it,I am a stubborn sod and we cannot get close to buying without my income - so it aint happening until I am happy!

Well we know who wears the trousers here then.

[talksalot81]

Well we know who wears the trousers here then.

And why not!

[talksalot81]

Just came across this:

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=4&p=156652

I looked at a property in this same development only 2 months ago (it may have been the same property in fact). I gave up paying attention because the bidding was over £200k....

If someone bought it interest only at the time i quit looking, they would be paying £800 odds a month - but only getting back £475! Whether or not this is what is happening, it is good anecdote for why BTL is a waste of time in NI and anyone getting into it now is betting solely upon HP rises.

[azogar]

From todays Irish Independent (i didn't bother with the link cos you need to register)

similar to carols Times post yesterday:

Cost of living spiral to go on this month

THE cost of living is rising faster than at any time in the last four years and hard-pressed consumers can expect even more increases this month.

Annual inflation rose to 4.9pc in December, up from 4.4pc the previous month, and prices are rising faster than at any time since 2002, the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office show.

The news provoked warnings that inflation is "spiralling out of control", with further increases due in ESB, postage, health costs and interest rates.

Economists are now predicting that inflation could hit 6pc this month and the Government has been accused of making Ireland a "graveyard for consumers".

The latest Consumer Price Index reveals the biggest price hikes last year were for such unavoidable costs as mortgage interest and household bills, with the price of services rising seven times faster than goods.

Mortgage interest increased by 31.5pc in the year thanks to four separate interest rate rises, while energy costs rose by 8.2pc.

Health costs rose by 4.4pc in 2006 and are now 27pc dearer than in 2002, with doctors' fees up 7pc last year and dental charges up 6.6pc. In total, prices rose by 0.3pc in December alone, pushing the annual rate up to 4.9pc from 4.4pc in November, largely thanks to an extra 50c per pack of cigarettes from the Budget.

The abolition of the Groceries Order last March appears to be having an impact on food prices, which are holding steady rather than roaring ahead like other sectors.

Items which are no longer covered by this ban on below-cost selling rose by just 0.1pc in the year, while the cost of perishable produce rose by 2.4pc. Drink prices fell by 2.3pc in 2006.

The CSO said that this was a reverse of the trend of the previous three years, when inflation was higher for items covered by the Groceries Order. Overall food prices have risen by 1.8pc since 2002.

However, price rises are not inevitable as some things actually cost less now than they did five years ago, with clothes and shoes 12pc cheaper and furniture prices 5pc lower.

Energy products have risen by 37pc since 2002, education is up 28pc, transport is 15pc dearer, and restaurants and hotels are charging 19pc more.

Government-controlled prices have risen by 41pc in the last five years, whereas ordinary goods have actually fallen by 6pc, said Fine Gael Finance spokesman Richard Bruton.

"Fianna Fail and the PDs have got too close to powerful producer interests and have made Ireland a graveyard for consumers," he said.

The old reliables of drink, and cigarettes which are heavily influenced by government, have also risen by 24pc, he said.

Jobs will go if the cost of living is not immediately brought under control, said business group ISME.

"If allowed to continue, [spiralling inflation] will do untold damage to the small business sector in terms of investment and jobs," said ISME Chief Mark Fielding.

SIPTU blamed the latest rise on indirect taxation measures in last month's budget, which their head of research Manus O'Riordan said produced an immediate impact of 0.4pc.

Householders are set to be be hit with a 13pc price hike in their next ESB bill, thereby adding an extra €16 to the average household cost, which will now reach €142.

Consumers are also now dealing with rises in bus, rail and tram fares, toll charges and higher bin charges in some areas, while a 0.25pc mortgage interest hike is expected next month.

Gas prices were increased by 34pc in the autumn but the Energy Regulator has ordered Bord Gais to reduce them by 10pc next month because of falling international fuel prices.

The average annual inflation rate throughout 2006 was 4pc compared with 2.5pc in 2005 and higher than any time since 2002, the CSO said.

[azogar]

ANECDOTAL:

this had an offer of £375 before christmas and now they have pulled out, back on the market at asking price of £365

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...=0&p=195629

[Smell the Fear]

Jobs will go if the cost of living is not immediately brought under control, said business group ISME.

"If allowed to continue, [spiralling inflation] will do untold damage to the small business sector in terms of investment and jobs," said ISME Chief Mark Fielding.

This was my view on how the economy will respond to rising inflation in the absence of IR control in the Irish economy (i.e. the IR is set by the ECB, not Dublin).

Price inflation ->Wage inflation -> companies move to cheaper countries -> job losses -> inflation lowered and house prices crash.