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headmelter
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Dual incomes ARE bound to influence prices. Then again, property TV shows demonstrating huge profilts are bound to influence prices. Loose lending practices are bound to influence property prices. Peer pressure is bound to influence prices. Parental pressure to 'get onto the ladder' is bound to influence prices. Increases in numbers in higher education raises expectations and could easily be correllated to house price rises. But.... so what?

My contention is that the effect of dual incomes cannot be assumed to be a rock steady foundation for the market. People do it to find extra funds when prices are such that they need it. If prices are lower and the market is cautious, it is simply not necessary to be borrowing on a joint income. Maybe this will yield a greated difference between boom and bust periods but nothing stated so far comes close to suggesting that this factor would warrant a shifting of the underlying trend.

I agree with you and land prices and house priced have grown to soak up the extra disposable income that the dual income provided. As someone else said the increase in dual income households was a driving factor in the rise in property prices at a greater rate than the increase in average wages. That was pushed to its maximum and well beyond with all the hype that a boom creates.

The so what is you cant today compare average house price to single income in the same way as you did in the 70's and say look at the difference. A large part of that difference to accounted for because of the increase in dual income households. I agree you cant use the same multiplier as you have to allow for an extra car and possible child care etc, etc. Although apparently the child will still wear nappies whether the mother works or not.

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The so what is you cant today compare average house price to single income in the same way as you did in the 70's and say look at the difference. A large part of that difference to accounted for because of the increase in dual income households.

I know where you are coming from but I'm sceptical about the magnitude of this effect. My parents bought on a dual income, as did most of their friends and this is the time period where you say the use of a joint income wasn't so significant. Further, why hasn;t the media jumped onto this to explain why prices are not as 'bad' as they first seem?

I just think this is clutching at straws. You could argue that you cannot compare these times because lending practices in the last 10 years were dramatically more 'free' than in previous times. There are loads of discussions you could have to say why you cannot make comparisons and many likely have merit. Nevertheless, most of these will have a flip side. With lending practices, for instance, the flip side is that the tightening of the belt will be much harsher this time round than before.

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I know where you are coming from but I'm sceptical about the magnitude of this effect. My parents bought on a dual income, as did most of their friends and this is the time period where you say the use of a joint income wasn't so significant. Further, why hasn;t the media jumped onto this to explain why prices are not as 'bad' as they first seem?

I just think this is clutching at straws. You could argue that you cannot compare these times because lending practices in the last 10 years were dramatically more 'free' than in previous times. There are loads of discussions you could have to say why you cannot make comparisons and many likely have merit. Nevertheless, most of these will have a flip side. With lending practices, for instance, the flip side is that the tightening of the belt will be much harsher this time round than before.

Since when did the media really study anything. Your parents and their friends aside I quoted evidence from the US that showed the percentage of dual income households rose from 30% in the 70's to over 60% in 2005/6. I can think of nothing that would indicate that this would be different here. I contend that it is a significant change.

Of course there are lots of other factors and this forum is full of them and in my posts on this issue I did state 'all other things being equal' to set them aside from the point I was making.

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Since when did the media really study anything. Your parents and their friends aside I quoted evidence from the US that showed the percentage of dual income households rose from 30% in the 70's to over 60% in 2005/6. I can think of nothing that would indicate that this would be different here. I contend that it is a significant change.

The media are just love talking up the market and they could have easily done so with this arguement. The data you quote is all well and good, but it is the US and this is the UK. It may well be similar but my experience tells me that dual incomes are not at all a new addition to the UK market.

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  • 1 month later...

The attached article doest seem to mention the UK

Click on the video.

The article is just a collection of quotes from the CNBC video.

The above quote is from the commentator in the video and is not included in the article.

Edited by Belfast Boy
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Yawn!

You people have done nothing but talking rubbish for the last couple of years.

The smart money is moving back into Bricks and Mortar. Houses have never been so cheap.

I'm buying properties that are giving me almost 10% yield - where else do you find that.

I admit that prices have fallen - but the crash is over - it's the recovery now and the future is bright.

Especially for Northern Ireland.

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that was the past.

Now that things are back to normal

(banks are lending, confidence is returning to the market, the economic outlook is rosy)

Prices are bound to rise and rise fast.

The greatest thing about buying now - is that FTBers are getting away without paying Stamp Duty.

There's never been a better time.

You guys are stuck in the past - Property is back in vogue.

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Yawn!

You people have done nothing but talking rubbish for the last couple of years.

The smart money is moving back into Bricks and Mortar. Houses have never been so cheap.

I'm buying properties that are giving me almost 10% yield - where else do you find that.

I admit that prices have fallen - but the crash is over - it's the recovery now and the future is bright.

Especially for Northern Ireland.

Troll alert!!"

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It is people like you who are holding back the success of Northern Ireland.

If I can convince you zealots that property is the right thing to do - then prices will stop threatening the prosperity of hard working families.

You know it makes sense.

yeah right on the button

hard working families should have the opportunity to borrow at least 6 x joint salary at least to prosper by buying property, indeed, the truly courageous hard working families should be able to borrow extensively to purchase multiple properties and let them out to soap dodgers and feckless layabouts with an enforceable minimum rent to meet the BTL payments at the very least

it is a well known fact that property only ever goes up and if we need to devalue the pound to the point where £100 buys a loaf of bread then so be it!

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The word "expert" has troubled me recently.

I was watching TV and there was a story about a girl who was an EA but gave it up and became a "Property Expert" instead.

Mind-numbing stuff.

But here's the thing - is a PE (Property Expert - don't you know) anything really?

I could consider myself a PE - and I probably am much better than 90% of those people running around saying they are* PEs.

So - like in theat article from 2007 - from a journalist who for years has been writing in the Newspapers beside the great David McWilliams (you guys don't post his stuff enough - here is a Link now)

So - ok, he's a journalist - he doesn't know anything - but it shows that we humans are idiots.

In 2007 is was clear that property is a bad bad thing - (even before that for the wise among us) - but people are still rushing in.

In 2000 dotcom companies were the worst thing to get into - but I guess people doubled there losses there as well - thinking they were picking up bargains.

The smart money in 2000 would have been to buy gold, or shares in Mining Companies, Crude Oil Futures etc...

In 2007 the smart money would have been to go into gold straight away - maybe in other places too.

The thing is - property is not where it is at. It is a dead market - developers, amateur BTL landlords - accidental landlords, downsizing boomers hoping for peak prices - these guys are all standing around with properties to sell - like a bunch of 17th Century Amsterdamers with their pockets full of Tulip Bulbs.

Ultimately, I think that there must be something better to be doing for money - what is the next great thing? I don't know.

However, I can say that for the last few years, the average homeowner has earned more from their house than they have from working, once you take into account all the tax they pay - conservatively - I would say that is correct.

In the past - people with shares have had the same good fortune.

If you bought shares 10 years ago - you probably are nursing losses - and I think the same thing will be true about property in a 10 years time (from the peak).

*Because I can do sums in my head - like calculating how much a £335k house would cost on a 4.5% IO mortgage of £270k vs. - whereas most people are idiots with numbers - complete idiots - especially if they are EAs in my opinion....)

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Who else uses such emotive language to express their enthusaism for property:

e.g.

The smart money is moving back into Bricks and Mortar,

Prices are bound to rise and rise fast.,

There's never been a better time.,

It is people like you who are holding back the success of Northern Ireland.,

You know it makes sense.

:D

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Who else uses such emotive language to express their enthusaism for property:

e.g.

The smart money is moving back into Bricks and Mortar,

Prices are bound to rise and rise fast.,

There's never been a better time.,

It is people like you who are holding back the success of Northern Ireland.,

You know it makes sense.

:D

Sounds like Alan Brooke (who regularly comments on the property recovereh in the Bel Tel).

I claim my 5 quid that being the case.

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that was the past.

Now that things are back to normal

(banks are lending, confidence is returning to the market, the economic outlook is rosy)

Prices are bound to rise and rise fast.

The greatest thing about buying now - is that FTBers are getting away without paying Stamp Duty.

There's never been a better time.

You guys are stuck in the past - Property is back in vogue.

I like this - "I'm buying properties at 10% yield", but "the best thing is FTBs get away without paying stamp duty".

I wonder how many times you can be a first time buyer, exactly? My wife and I will be losing our virginity again tonight.

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Yawn!

You people have done nothing but talking rubbish for the last couple of years.

The smart money is moving back into Bricks and Mortar. Houses have never been so cheap.

I'm buying properties that are giving me almost 10% yield - where else do you find that.

I admit that prices have fallen -but the crash is over - it's the recovery now and the future is bright.

Especially for Northern Ireland.

edit

Edited by pajd
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I have a reputation to keep-up. :P

I was just running down memory-lane - looking at some old posts.

Good times. :)

It's funny - I first was on this site in mid-2005. (my email account got hacked and I changed to Maxdiver)

anyway - back then - who would have thought that not only that the "average" house in NI's price would jump from around 100k to 250k and drop back to below 150k.

The biggest thing for me, was that modest family homes were selling for millions!

If there was development potential - the Alan Brookes of this world would jump in and develop this place into horrendous townhouses or whatever.

Good times. :)

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  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...

it will be interesting to see if the nationwide national average chart data follows the course predicted by tamara de lempika here:

housen-2.jpg

which puts a bottom in around 2013.

however, nadeem wyalatt thinks that the inflation trend will result in flat prices for the foreseeable future.

take each year as it comes i guess, i still believe that overall 2010 will be a flat year. but if the markets crash again later this year / next year, i cant see how hps will be unaffected. interestingly, nadeem sees a stealth bull market in stocks, so i guess that is consistent wih his hp forecast :unsure:

Edited by p.p.
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