Northern Ireland

[talksalot81]

Isn't that area often occupied by student types? If so, anyone thinking that area is bulletproof would do well to find a public release of the student applications this year - it might change your mind!!

[Belfast Boy]

First the government give us no stamp duty below £175k which was widly expected to lead to a sharp fall in house prices.

Now they are trying to prevent repossessions. This will likely lead to ... hmmm, let me think ... a sharp fall in house prices? Why don't they leave the market alone?

The following quote explains it well...

By effectively taking away the right to reposses, mortgages become unsecured loans, and banks will tighten their lending criteria on a scale unseen.

If lending tightens for first-time buyers then prices will fall harder and faster. Maybe the government are trying to speed up the house price crash?

Edited October 23, 2008 by Belfast Boy

[subby]

hope so

[Traktion]

Good point, BB! The market will decide the costs through risk assessment, regardless to what the governments does.

It seems to me, the government has stopped trying to help FTBs and is just concentrating on keeping people who have homes, from losing them. All the talk of helping FTBs is wishful thinking imo.

How does that saying go? Don't listen to what they are saying, but instead watch what they are doing.

[Vespasian]

Bump!

Should we preserve the old thread up in the important topics section?

[mr slump]

I will go with the flow - although I do find that pinned topics die a death. VT's brilliant thread is just wasting away up there with only an occasional view. I prefer to bump a subject back on the front page to let it be revived (Jamie de largy for example) but I will pin it if I get another couple of requests.

It may be worthwhile unpinning VTs thread for a while then pinning it again. Many new users dont seem to see the pinned threads.

Any opinions?

I actually have this thread in my bookmarks

probably neve read the whole thing

I read 15 - 20 pges a time then skip a month or so

historically its valuable stuff

[HPCwhen?]

I actually have this thread in my bookmarks

probably neve read the whole thing

I read 15 - 20 pges a time then skip a month or so

historically its valuable stuff

I agree. Its remarkable how prescient some of the early comments by Headmelter / VT et al were. Spooky.

Edited January 2, 2009 by HPCwhen?

[HPCwhen?]

Well in all honesty I have no idea - but I have seen plenty of semi's in East Belfast starting to approach the £150K mark, so I will say that over the next year, at the very least, there will be a big increase in 3 bed semi's available in Belfast for around £150K.

On propertynews if I search for 3 bed semi's in East Belfast for under £170K I get 49 houses returned. I'll do that same search same time next year and see what happens - someone remember to remind me on 21 October 2009!

Hi Joe.

You're looking for the same type of property in roughly the same area as me. Haven't you noticed the growing number of 3 bed semis (decent sized ones) on Propertynews for the 175K mark? Also NONE of these appear to be shifting. Dont you think these sellers will have to discount to sell? These properties typically have 120/ 130K rateable valuations. How long before we see properties marketed at this level?

[JoeDavola]

You're looking for the same type of property in roughly the same area as me. Haven't you noticed the growing number of 3 bed semis (decent sized ones) on Propertynews for the 175K mark? Also NONE of these appear to be shifting. Dont you think these sellers will have to discount to sell? These properties typically have 120/ 130K rateable valuations. How long before we see properties marketed at this level?

I would guess that in a years time we will start to see one or two of these kinds of houses at the £130K level, from people that are eager to sell.

I'm not getting madly excited though, as £175K is so madly overpriced that they have a long, long way to fall. To be honest, as time goes on, I am becoming less and less interested in the idea of owning a house - I'm not quite sure if I want to get tied down with something like a house at the moment.

[FrustratedFTB]

Having been away over the christmas peroid I heard of a a sale agreed on a house when I came back but a good 18% below asking (115k on a 140k asking price, three bed semi in Lisburn area even though a higher bid of 130 was offered because dependent on selling another property). The next two quarterly reports are going to be interesting!

[HPCwhen?]

Having been away over the christmas peroid I heard of a a sale agreed on a house when I came back but a good 18% below asking (115k on a 140k asking price, three bed semi in Lisburn area even though a higher bid of 130 was offered because dependent on selling another property). The next two quarterly reports are going to be interesting!

I know. I think 09 will be the year when reality really sinks in for most vendors. I'm hoping that 18% under asking becomes the new norm. I think vendors are increasingly prepared to consider what would hitherto have been regarded as a 'cheeky offer'. Many, I suspect, are just thankful for any offer and by that I mean a meaningful offer - i.e one that isn't contingent on a house sale (in this market such an offer is almost meaningless).

Those of us with reasonable deposits are in a pretty strong position to offer way under at the moment - and be taken seriously. FTBs with big deposits are very rare and are being taken seriously be hard-pushed estate agents. Thats the sense I get from the EAs I've have 'the pleasure' of talking to. What a difference 18 months makes!

I am becoming less and less interested in the idea of owning a house - I'm not quite sure if I want to get tied down with something like a house at the moment.

I know exactly what you mean. Housing has seriously lost its appeal in recent months. I recall hearing Merryn from Moneyweek predict that before this crash/ correction is through housing will be the most hated asset class in the UK. I know several people in serious negative equity - easily 50K - its not too hard to imagine how the general populous could fall seriously out of love with property. When I think of all the fun stuff I could do with my deposit instead of buying a chunk of bricks and mortar I do question myself. Financially though, buying a good house at the right time has gotta make sense. That time is coming but its not here yet.... Edited January 3, 2009 by HPCwhen?

[mr slump]

I know. I think 09 will be the year when reality really sinks in for most vendors. I'm hoping that 18% under asking becomes the new norm. I think vendors are increasingly prepared to consider what would hitherto have been regarded as a 'cheeky offer'. Many, I suspect, are just thankful for any offer and by that I mean a meaningful offer - i.e one that isn't contingent on a house sale (in this market such an offer is almost meaningless).

Those of us with reasonable deposits are in a pretty strong position to offer way under at the moment - and be taken seriously. FTBs with big deposits are very rare and are being taken seriously be hard-pushed estate agents. Thats the sense I get from the EAs I've have 'the pleasure' of talking to. What a difference 18 months makes!

I know exactly what you mean. Housing has seriously lost its appeal in recent months. I recall hearing Merryn from Moneyweek predict that before this crash/ correction is through housing will be the most hated asset class in the UK. I know several people in serious negative equity - easily 50K - its not too hard to imagine how the general populous could fall seriously out of love with property. When I think of all the fun stuff I could do with my deposit instead of buying a chunk of bricks and mortar I do question myself. Financially though, buying a good house at the right time has gotta make sense. That time is coming but its not here yet....

I have only one aim

to buy the right home for the right price for cash

the banks are going to lend less in the next three months

no one is going to take a subject to sale offer seriously

maybe some of our times will come sooner than others

but if we can buy at way under asking then hopefully it'll push the asking prices down in general

I think I'll give it another month before talking to EAs

but it'll be probably be 3-4, maybe 6 months before theres much of a choice in my price range

I'd leave it a till the end of the year if gordon hadn't destroyed the interest rates, the pound and the fear of inflation

depends how much I earn in coming months too I suppose

[shipbuilder]

It’s always handy to have facts at hand, so if no-one minds, I’ll post my latest graphs on this thread and provide an update each quarter?

Mean earnings are mean adult full time earnings from the ONS.

I’m sure not everyone agrees with the Nationwide figures, but I think the trends and comparisons are more important than the individual figures.

Firstly, NI vs UK mean earnings 1983 to present

NI vs UK FTB house prices 1983 to present

NI vs UK FTB house price to mean earnings ratio 1983 to present

NI vs UK FTB house price based on average ratio 1983 to present

NI vs UK , Scotland and Wales overall average house prices 1973 to present

My observations –

I think it’s pretty clear that we aren’t hitting the bottom any time soon, or even flattening out.

EAs were reporting a pick-up in sales in Q4, which may actually have accelerated the crash as we get higher volumes of transactions at lower prices.

There’s been a definite ‘peace dividend’ as far as average prices go, but interestingly not in average wages. This leads me to believe that we will eventually see a wages to FTB price ratio the same as the UK at 3.3, rather than 3.0.

The wages to FTB price ratio graph is effectively the FTB price graph adjusted for wage inflation and, to me, is more instructive. Even at that, we can see there is still some way to go, from a peak of £200K down to about £70K by my reckoning – a 65% drop.

[Jacko79]

It’s always handy to have facts at hand, so if no-one minds, I’ll post my latest graphs on this thread and provide an update each quarter?

Mean earnings are mean adult full time earnings from the ONS.

I’m sure not everyone agrees with the Nationwide figures, but I think the trends and comparisons are more important than the individual figures.

Firstly, NI vs UK mean earnings 1983 to present

NI vs UK FTB house prices 1983 to present

NI vs UK FTB house price to mean earnings ratio 1983 to present

NI vs UK FTB house price based on average ratio 1983 to present

NI vs UK , Scotland and Wales overall average house prices 1973 to present

My observations –

I think it’s pretty clear that we aren’t hitting the bottom any time soon, or even flattening out.

EAs were reporting a pick-up in sales in Q4, which may actually have accelerated the crash as we get higher volumes of transactions at lower prices.

There’s been a definite ‘peace dividend’ as far as average prices go, but interestingly not in average wages. This leads me to believe that we will eventually see a wages to FTB price ratio the same as the UK at 3.3, rather than 3.0.

The wages to FTB price ratio graph is effectively the FTB price graph adjusted for wage inflation and, to me, is more instructive. Even at that, we can see there is still some way to go, from a peak of £200K down to about £70K by my reckoning – a 65% drop.

I love that graph - the NI drop looks like a slide I was on during my summer holidays

[LD50]

http://www.propertynews.com/blog/813/NI-Ho...pleton-Robinson

wonderful piece of nonsense from an EA

short version - we have never mislead anyone , and the crash has now bottomed out

[mr slump]

http://www.propertynews.com/blog/813/NI-Ho...pleton-Robinson

wonderful piece of nonsense from an EA

short version - we have never mislead anyone , and the crash has now bottomed out

welcome LD50

good to see how transparent the TR propaganda is to people

this one is covered in 'the media reports in Ni' thread

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=105924

long one but worth reading through some of it for more ramping and denial

the queen of all NI property media Helen Carson has a thread dedicated to her lies also

[Belfast Boy]

Back at the beginning of 2007 I wanted to sell my house and buy this town house is Cookstown....

Property News - 23 Church Heights, Cookstown - click here.

Note: the photo is of the apartment block which is part of the development.

IIRC 23 Church Heights was for sale at £310,000 in 2007.

Now for sale OO £150,000.

Am I tempted? Nope - I know that is is still over priced

Besides, I also know, I would be living in the middle of a building site for along time.

Thanks for the advice everyone. You educated me and you saved me from making a massive financial mistake.

It has been a long wait, but worth it

I still won't be buying anything before autumn 2010. Not much longer to wait.

[Vespasian]

Thats quite a reduction there BB. In fairness, it looks reasonable VFM

[headmelter]

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=MCGMCG2928

Some pricing anomalies in this one.

Even at £229k they're hopeful.

[headmelter]

What a bunch of prats. All the way down to 229k now back up to 274k (and they forgot to change the ad)

http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/searc...h,%20BT29%204WN

Do they think buyers' heads zip up the back?

It was on TDGTTS that I picked up on it. Amazed there are actually some increases in price.

[Rock-n-Roll]

has everybody got there antiviral?

[Rock-n-Roll]

has everybody got there antiviral?

of course i was talking about software!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8047012.stm

rock on!

[azogar]

of course i was talking about software!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8047012.stm

rock on!

from portglenone apparently

[Rock-n-Roll]

The DUP leader, Peter Robinson, and SDLP leader Mark Durkan are among 182 MPs from all parties who have repaid parliamentary expenses money.

Mr Durkan has returned £1,124. Mr Robinson has paid back £755 while his DUP colleague David Simpson has returned £1,482.

The Northern Ireland Office minister, Paul Goggins, paid back almost £13,000.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8108663.stm

some have described them as "pigs at the trough"

no no no!

imho you are doing a grave disservice to pigs!!

rock on!!!

[Belfast Boy]

I recognised a so called 'property expert' in the pub at the weekend. Gary McCausland was out with some of his English friends.

How sad am I?