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nicko75

Btl (buy To Live...)

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What's the thinking behind the consensus view and rates peaking at 5.25 and falling? Does that mean inflation is expected to slowdown? Or is it the delayed effects of he recent oil price falls?

lifted from the latest Lombard Street research bulletin....

"Above trend GDP growth, a robust housing market and booming money growth will trigger two more 25bp rises, taking rates to a peak of 5.25% early next year. Later in 2007 global weakness is likely to prompt monetary easing, with rates back to 4.75% by year end"

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Firstly the anecdotals....My girlfriend & I have just bought a 2 bed new build town house in Surbiton for a fairly eye watering £385,000. Of the 7 that were built, 6 were reserved before the launch date and people were queueing up at 9am with cheques to secure one. Having said that, the other one still remains unsold I think...

Anyway, thats why I have been on the boards the last few months as, having entered into a property deal, I am now of course paranoid that I have paid "too much for it"!

I appreciate that you have bought the house as a place to live in rather than as an investment. However, I think you have paid far too much for it.

I live in north Kingston, very near the river Thames, Richmond Park, and a fantastic shopping centre and ancient town market place, only ten minutes away from Richmond Hill (where my sister lives) through the park, great transport facilities, etc. A three-bedroom period house around here will cost around £380,000, a two-bed around £350,000 - both rather less if they need work. Bear in mind also that period properties tend to hold their value much better than new-builds.

I just wondered what made you decide to settle for such an expensive new-build in Surbiton, when there were much better options available. Do you particularly like new-builds?

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Personally I would be wary of any apparent consensus around interest rates. Many analysts believed last year's cut was a sign of things to come and most were surprised by the raise in August.

Edited by greencat

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lifted from the latest Lombard Street research bulletin....

"Above trend GDP growth, a robust housing market and booming money growth will trigger two more 25bp rises, taking rates to a peak of 5.25% early next year. Later in 2007 global weakness is likely to prompt monetary easing, with rates back to 4.75% by year end"

Cheers. Seems a bit vague, mind.

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I appreciate that you have bought the house as a place to live in rather than as an investment. However, I think you have paid far too much for it.

I just wondered what made you decide to settle for such an expensive new-build in Surbiton, when there were much better options available. Do you particularly like new-builds?

Good question. If you look further up this thread you will see that in the context of Surbiton, I dont think we have paid too much. We have lived in Surbiton for 12 months and IMO gives all the benefits of Kingston (shopping / social / river walks etc) as its so close but with the added benefit of 4/6 non stop trains an hour to Waterloo plus another 4/6 trains an hour stopping at Wimbledon & C-Junction. I also reckon Kingston can get a bit rough, particularly in the evenings??....

I think it will stand the test of time as it is a house, built in the style of those around it as opposed to a flat in the latest trendy design which will soon date.

I have no particular preference for new builds but there is something appealing about buying a place which is fully fitted out with all appliances and carpets, newly painted etc We will hardly have to spend anything furnishing it.....

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I have no particular preference for new builds but there is something appealing about buying a place which is fully fitted out with all appliances and carpets, newly painted etc We will hardly have to spend anything furnishing it.....

I don`t think it`s a good idea getting a mortgage on shiny new appliances. You`ll still be paying for them when they`re in a chinese steel girder

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Personally I would be wary of any apparent consensus around interest rates. Many analysts believed last year's cut was a sign of things to come and most were surprised by the raise in August.

Exactly. Only a few months ago 5% was the peak, now 5.25/5.5/6% depending on which economist you listen to.

IRs will overshoot helped by the dreadful complacency of the BOE and friends. Higher and for much longer than is 'expected' presently.

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I dont know you from Adam yet you are happy to dish out a load of abuse!

I apologise unreservedly for insulting you. I do feel, however, that you just paid over the odds by a LARGE margin.

What I am not prepared to do, however, is take such arrogant abuse of d1ckheads like you.

Like I said, sorry...;-)

Edited by PropertyGuru

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You are welcome. I, however, know YOU. You are the kind of unthinking cannon-fodder I offloaded my little empire onto recently - thanks!. The kind of up-n-coming chavs who, despite having managed to get a 'degree' (anytime in the last 10 years? Equivalent of a cooking gcse from the old days then?) can't do simple maths, and think they can 'get rich quick' after the boom has peaked.

I'm afraid you do have to take it, limpdicked nobrain. This is a public board. If you come on here, and spout 'ooh look at me aren't I clever' cr@p, you have to take it up the sphincter, because the people on this board

do not suffer fools

Face it - you just paid 2 x the real price for your little starter home. I'll be buying those myself in 2 years of so for under 200k. And renting them back out to doleys on the ss - the ranks of which will probably include YOU by that point.

oh whatever.... also, its pretty pathetic to come out with all these big words on a board that protects your anonymity. I'd like to see you dish out this kind of abuse to someones face and take a good sh1t kicking - cos that is quite clearly what you deserve.....

well done for making all that money by the way. it must make you happy cos you clearly can't have any friends. As for me, I'm quite happy with my life, including the money I earn and the house I've just bought so you - my friend - can f*ck off.........

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Good question. If you look further up this thread you will see that in the context of Surbiton, I dont think we have paid too much. We have lived in Surbiton for 12 months and IMO gives all the benefits of Kingston (shopping / social / river walks etc) as its so close but with the added benefit of 4/6 non stop trains an hour to Waterloo plus another 4/6 trains an hour stopping at Wimbledon & C-Junction. I also reckon Kingston can get a bit rough, particularly in the evenings??....

I think it will stand the test of time as it is a house, built in the style of those around it as opposed to a flat in the latest trendy design which will soon date.

I have no particular preference for new builds but there is something appealing about buying a place which is fully fitted out with all appliances and carpets, newly painted etc We will hardly have to spend anything furnishing it.....

Kingston has at least four trains an hour to Waterloo (they take about half an hour), with stop-offs at Vauxhall, Clapham Junction and Wimbledon - which is very useful. There are also trains to Waterloo that take longer to get there, but stop off at Richmond, which is also useful.

I've never noticed that Kingston is rough - I gather there are students from the university around the bars in the town centre at weekends, who can probably get a bit rowdy through not being able to handle their drink. I feel safer where I am than I have ever done living anywhere in inner London, even coming back late at night. (Note that Kingston and neighbouring Richmond have less crime than anywhere else in London.)

Regarding buying a place that is fully fitted out, I prefer to kit out my place according to my own taste, rather to than have someone do it for me in a style that is unlikely to appeal to me. However, that's just personal preference . . .

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this is my point - you are looking at this with the wrong specs on. You are looking at a house as a speculative purchase and talking about a short term drop in the housing market "costing" me £45k

In reality this "loss" will never exist (just as I am not foolish enough to think that if it goes up £45k I have "made" 45 grand) as I am in it for the long run and in 20 years time this property - or wherever I am at the time - will have gone up by 5 or 6% pa (or whatever the average LT growth rate is......)

I agree. Worrying about "losing" 45k in a year is as senseless as worrying that you could have bought it for 45k less 1 year ago!

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Kingston has at least four trains an hour to Waterloo (they take about half an hour), with stop-offs at Vauxhall, Clapham Junction and Wimbledon - which is very useful. There are also trains to Waterloo that take longer to get there, but stop off at Richmond, which is also useful.

I've never noticed that Kingston is rough - I gather there are students from the university around the bars in the town centre at weekends, who can probably get a bit rowdy through not being able to handle their drink. I feel safer where I am than I have ever done living anywhere in inner London, even coming back late at night. (Note that Kingston and neighbouring Richmond have less crime than anywhere else in London.)

Not knocking Kingston as I think its a good place too and it is next door to Surbiton. I just think you will find that the average price in Surbiton is a bit higher than Kingston because of the train service. It takes 14 minutes to get to Waterloo 4 times an hour plus the other stopping trains which is a service that cannot be bettered anywhere in Zone 6 in South West London....

As for the town centre well I'm desperately clinging on to my youth so I do occasionally head out to the town centre / Oceana on a Friday or Saturday night and I can confirm that it is a drunken mess and pretty rough.....

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Not knocking Kingston as I think its a good place too and it is next door to Surbiton. I just think you will find that the average price in Surbiton is a bit higher than Kingston because of the train service. It takes 14 minutes to get to Waterloo 4 times an hour plus the other stopping trains which is a service that cannot be bettered anywhere in Zone 6 in South West London....

As for the town centre well I'm desperately clinging on to my youth so I do occasionally head out to the town centre / Oceana on a Friday or Saturday night and I can confirm that it is a drunken mess and pretty rough.....

Well, since I avoid travelling to inner London as much as possible (I'm a freelancer), a few minutes more on the train make no difference to me, and I'd rather live really close to Richmond. I don't think that in general Surbiton is more expensive than Kingston, though - and certainly not more expensive than north Kingston, which is so close to places like Petersham and Richmond. (I've compared the prices in the past.) If you regard places like Norbiton and Tolworth as Kingston, however, then you are probably right. They are pretty grottsville. :blink:

As for Oceana and other such venues, never been there and they don't attract. Perhaps that's why I've never seen bad behaviour around here. Certainly where I am there's peace and quiet, which I like.

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As for me, I'm quite happy with my life, including the money I earn and the house I've just bought so you - my friend - can f*ck off.........

Well thats just spiffing...

U have told u have a lovely place and are quite happy blah blah blah

So goodbye and happy HPI.

U will not want to hang around a site with the loser HPC name surely. Life is too short for the negative.

Nobody in their right mind would participate on this forum unless they had serious concerns about a significant downturn surely?

I hope you will not be joining the trolls and the bulls on here who are similarly mortgaged up to the hilt, who hang around this site daily praying that the inevitable significant correction does not happen, poor sods.

Edited by CrashDive

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Well thats just spiffing...

U have told u have a lovely place and are quite happy blah blah blah

So goodbye and happy HPI.

U will not want to hang around a site with the loser HPC name surely. Life is too short for the negative.

Nobody in their right mind would participate on this forum unless they had serious concerns about a significant downturn surely?

I hope you will not be joining the trolls and the bulls on here who are similarly mortgaged up to the hilt, who hang around this site daily praying that the inevitable significant correction does not happen, poor sods.

Well having just bought somewhere it's understandable that my interest in the workings of the housing market has increased recently. And when I stumbled accross this site I thought - by and large - it is an interesting read with useful points on both sides of the fence.

I enjoy the debate and am happy to have a few facts pointed out to me.

Just dont expect me to take a volley of personal abuse from some arrogant t0sser who I have never even met.....I think thats more than fair enough...

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Well having just bought somewhere it's understandable that my interest in the workings of the housing market has increased recently. And when I stumbled accross this site I thought - by and large - it is an interesting read with useful points on both sides of the fence.

I enjoy the debate and am happy to have a few facts pointed out to me.

Just dont expect me to take a volley of personal abuse from some arrogant t0sser who I have never even met.....I think thats more than fair enough...

It might have been better to have increased your knowledge of the housing market before you bought, but hey never mind.

I think your mad even contemplating reading this site when you have made your move, possibly maschistic tendencies being displayed. Enjoy your property and don't concern yourself with where the market is heading, after all you are in it for the long haul. :rolleyes:

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash

maybe yes, fair point. i've been renting in london since 1997 (MASSIVE c0ck up not buying in 97 when I moved to London after uni bet never mind!...) and my rent peaked in 2004 and I am now paying the same as I was in 2000/2001 so - yes - fair point....

Well you guys must be doing ok for yourselves now and as has already been said you have to pay the current going rate to get what you want if you want it now

People who go for STR don't have a crystal ball and could be renting for years - I hope it suits them - but no-one can say for certain when or if there will be any significant falls - especially just to suit their STR position no matter how much they hope for it

It seems you must be in one of the most sought after areas and have had to pay the current going rate

That should be of some help in the long run - If there are any falls you'd expect them to be greatest in less desirable areas due to people not being able to sell

I bought property most recently in 2003 & 2005 - Each time I played it safe & didn't overstretch my funds thinking the market was at it's peak but so far prices have continued to increase

The main consideration for you is that you have not overstretched yourselves and have an element of safety against IR increases etc. ie that you could restructure your borrowing if necessary / take out unemployment cover etc. Also to plan for your eventual retirement as has already been suggested

I'm neither a Bull or Bear at the moment - I wouldn't advise anyone (who had to stretch their finances) to buy right now but to wait until spring especially if we get raised IR's. I'm hoping the rampant HPI is about to end and that we will at least have stability (though we know nothing is guaranteed and there could be falls of a few %). Obviously now many potential FTBers are priced out and many people with property are finding it harder to trade up due to the expense. Along with raised IR's there may be a move towards stagnation in some areas

As you will no doubt be aware a lot of people generalise on this board - You'd think everyone was MEW'ing or planning to do it but that's blatantly not the case - Many responsible parents will want to leave valuable investments to the next generation - That is a natural priority for the many (call it caring or instinct)

Edited by Yeahbutnocrash

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People only buy houses for two reasons, for speculation and to act as a hedge against future house price inflation.

Edit: I forgot, the only other reason a house price goes up is because of a bubble in the property market

You also forgot another reason: a place to live in! :P

Well having just bought somewhere it's understandable that my interest in the workings of the housing market has increased recently. And when I stumbled accross this site I thought - by and large - it is an interesting read with useful points on both sides of the fence.

I enjoy the debate and am happy to have a few facts pointed out to me.

Just dont expect me to take a volley of personal abuse from some arrogant t0sser who I have never even met.....I think thats more than fair enough...

I also came onto this site when I thought of buying. Strangely, it persuaded me to buy rather than hold off. :blink:

Edited by Charles_Darke

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Guest Yeahbutnocrash

I have heard it wisely said that a house's inherent real worth never goes up but always goes down. This is because from the moment a house is built, it starts to decay and tarnish. Without regular investment in repairs, it will eventually be derelict. The only reason a house price goes up is monetary. It goes up to match people's salaries which is itself a monetary phenomenon. This is the reason why purchased property can never be truly considered an investment because it does not have the capability of future production capacity. A boiler is an investment, a share in a company is an investment, a house is not an investment. People only buy houses for two reasons, for speculation and to act as a hedge against future house price inflation. As long as you know the reason that you have bought then that is ok, because I'm sure that most people have got these two things rolled into one.

GL,

L

Edit: I forgot, the only other reason a house price goes up is because of a bubble in the property market

Incorrect! - A house price can increase after home improvements or demand for a particular area increasing due to improved facilities!

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oh whatever.... also, its pretty pathetic to come out with all these big words on a board that protects your anonymity. I'd like to see you dish out this kind of abuse to someones face and take a good sh1t kicking - cos that is quite clearly what you deserve.....

well done for making all that money by the way. it must make you happy cos you clearly can't have any friends. As for me, I'm quite happy with my life, including the money I earn and the house I've just bought so you - my friend - can f*ck off.........

well said. Lets face it you know far more about where you've just bought than anyone on this forum. Any speculation about a hpc is just that...specculation, and has been for the last 2-3 years.

As for property-guru and crashdive, they are an embarrsasment to bears and are turning this site into a pantomime. They would make a good punch and judy though :D

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There is lot of "doing-down Britain" on this board as if it is this horrible run down sh1thole with people queing up to leave. The fact is quite the opposite.

I am in Africa right now with work and every time I come back home I appreciate it more and more. When I speak to South African colleagues they are amazed at how developed our infrastruture is, how cheap we can buy food, cars, clothing and consumer goods. They cannot believe that if there is anything wrong with me, I walk 5 minutes round the corner where I can consult a doctor for free and be prescribed medication. If I am involved in a road accident, I will not be left to die unless I have a credit card on me.

We have the most impartial news coverage in the world and decent television with adverts kept to a minimal, the best football league in the world and - in London - one of the most cosmopolitan and desirable places on earth to live. We have some stunning countryside and countless genuinely historical attractions.

If you want to leave, thats your call, but someone will gladly take your place. I think some people need to look beyond chavs, binge-drinking and council tax on this board and appreciate the things that make Britain a great place to live.

I agree with much of that, though NOT the bit about the media. Apart from the BBC, (which is rightly the envy of the world) most of our media, particularly the press, is biased towards one constituency or other.

Funnily enough, although I dislike most American TV I've seen, I have to say that the standard of print journalism in the USA is very high, and certainly much better than ours. Have a read through the big American newspaper websites and see the difference.

On the wider UK question, I guess it depends a lot on where you live. Where I am, Buckinghamshire, smallish village, life is generally pretty good. It's the classic arrangement, residential, 2 pubs, church, PO, a few shops, and pretty peaceful. I sometimes travel to NW London with my job - Willesden, Harlesden area, and I have to say I wouldn't want to live there. People seem unhappy and life is a struggle.

I could see myself living in France or Italy quite happily, if retired, but otherwise, I agree that for many of us, if you have a reasonably well-paid job and live somewhere nice, the UK is as good as it gets. If you're a one-parent family on the breadline in somewhere like Shepherds Bush, things would be different.

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As for property-guru and crashdive, they are an embarrsasment to bears and are turning this site into a pantomime.

Another debt-ridden sub-standard property owner, who cannot tear himself away from a forum dedicated to HPC, wonder why?

Oh yes because he finds it 'interesting' :lol:

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I agree with much of that, though NOT the bit about the media. Apart from the BBC, (which is rightly the envy of the world) most of our media, particularly the press, is biased towards one constituency or other.

On the wider UK question, I guess it depends a lot on where you live. Where I am, Buckinghamshire, smallish village, life is generally pretty good. It's the classic arrangement, residential, 2 pubs, church, PO, a few shops, and pretty peaceful. I sometimes travel to NW London with my job - Willesden, Harlesden area, and I have to say I wouldn't want to live there. People seem unhappy and life is a struggle.

I could see myself living in France or Italy quite happily, if retired, but otherwise, I agree that for many of us, if you have a reasonably well-paid job and live somewhere nice, the UK is as good as it gets. If you're a one-parent family on the breadline in somewhere like Shepherds Bush, things would be different.

good post - i agree with it all. and i was referring exactly to the BBC with my references to impartial news coverage. As for London, i often drive through the area you refer to as my girlfriends sister & husband live in Kilburn and as far as I can make out, Harelseden is as bad as it gets - anywhere in London...

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  • 336 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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