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I Really Do Not Think It Is Going To Happen


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I know a few people that still will not give in(or claim that), i also know a few that have given in. Is there anyone else on this board that thinks they might have seriously mis-judged this so called property crash, i know i have.

There is something that i have missed, maybe i was just being naive, maybe i was just plain wrong.

It is a fact that many are buckling under the pressure of debt, but i am starting to think it just is not enough, masses of immigrants and working familys desperate to get their familys a roof are keeping this property market breathing, i have had it, i am out of this Country.

Crash or no crash, there is no way i am spending my hard earned money on the same type of property a 17 year old junkie mother is handed on a plate.

Sam

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I know a few people that still will not give in(or claim that), i also know a few that have given in. Is there anyone else on this board that thinks they might have seriously mis-judged this so called property crash, i know i have.

There is something that i have missed, maybe i was just being naive, maybe i was just plain wrong.

It is a fact that many are buckling under the pressure of debt, but i am starting to think it just is not enough, masses of immigrants and working familys desperate to get their familys a roof are keeping this property market breathing, i have had it, i am out of this Country.

Crash or no crash, there is no way i am spending my hard earned money on the same type of property a 17 year old junkie mother is handed on a plate.

Sam

You should be so lucky to get the same type of property, and even if you did you still wouldn't get all the free benefits and treats they do. Not to mention their right to buy later on.

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I know a few people that still will not give in(or claim that), i also know a few that have given in. Is there anyone else on this board that thinks they might have seriously mis-judged this so called property crash, i know i have.

There is something that i have missed, maybe i was just being naive, maybe i was just plain wrong.

It is a fact that many are buckling under the pressure of debt, but i am starting to think it just is not enough, masses of immigrants and working familys desperate to get their familys a roof are keeping this property market breathing, i have had it, i am out of this Country.

Crash or no crash, there is no way i am spending my hard earned money on the same type of property a 17 year old junkie mother is handed on a plate.

Sam

Never mis-judged it Sam, never bought into it, no crash, slow grind IMHO, values falling back perhaps 20-25% from peak as wages very slowly catch up, underpinned by perhaps 5.5% interest rates and the potentail to wage inflate the populus out of the greater problems manifest....time scale? 15-17 years....

One thing I reckon I do know is that 3 times salary, as a measurement to buy, is over for the forseeable IMHO...

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Guest mattsta1964

Excellent advice. When you come back things will have changed

If I was in my 20's, i would definitely travel and work abroad, see the world and get out of this madhouse.

There was an item on the news this morning about a local lollypop man being off work sick and teachers not being allowed to do the job themselves because they are not properly qualified and haven't had the appropriate council approved health and safety training. :blink: It's little stories like that that make me realise this country is absolutely stuffed beyond all recognition. Stories like that are just a microcosm of the dire state of this country and anyone who believes that ordinary folk can prosper here anymore is delusional.

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I know a few people that still will not give in(or claim that), i also know a few that have given in. Is there anyone else on this board that thinks they might have seriously mis-judged this so called property crash, i know i have.

There is something that i have missed, maybe i was just being naive, maybe i was just plain wrong.

It is a fact that many are buckling under the pressure of debt, but i am starting to think it just is not enough, masses of immigrants and working familys desperate to get their familys a roof are keeping this property market breathing, i have had it, i am out of this Country.

Crash or no crash, there is no way i am spending my hard earned money on the same type of property a 17 year old junkie mother is handed on a plate.

Sam

You would be lucky to afford that.

Good luck the more tax payers who leave the UK the sooner things will have to change.

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Never mis-judged it Sam, never bought into it, no crash, slow grind IMHO, values falling back perhaps 20-25% from peak as wages very slowly catch up, underpinned by perhaps 5.5% interest rates and the potentail to wage inflate the populus out of the greater problems manifest....time scale? 15-17 years....

One thing I reckon I do know is that 3 times salary, as a measurement to buy, is over for the forseeable IMHO...

The concept of anything other than boom and bust is insane. It's always happened, it will happen again,. again, again, again etc.

Politics by definition creates boom, then ultimalty generates the bust.

Edited by abaxas
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Never mis-judged it Sam, never bought into it, no crash, slow grind IMHO, values falling back perhaps 20-25% from peak as wages very slowly catch up, underpinned by perhaps 5.5% interest rates and the potentail to wage inflate the populus out of the greater problems manifest....time scale? 15-17 years....

One thing I reckon I do know is that 3 times salary, as a measurement to buy, is over for the forseeable IMHO...

Maybe, but take a %25 discount at today's prices re-invest the saving with a modest anual return of %10 and that is a still a huge profit for a me and my family!!

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The concept of anything other than boom and bust is insane. It's always happened, it will happen again,. again, again, again etc.

Politics be definition creates boom, then ultimalty generates the bust.

Hmm....well I would actually question the description/belief that property 'crashed' in value last time. Falling on average 30% over what, 5-6 years? I think that could happen again, but not over 5-6 years, more like 15-16.

These references to the past do not work for me, I've always maintained that there is far too much overall activity in the market place for the tanker to stop dead, it'll take years for joe public to get the message that property ain't that good an investment. 2 recent auctions in Liverpool, last 4 days, record prices paid in some roads/streets...

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If I was in my 20's, i would definitely travel and work abroad, see the world and get out of this madhouse.

There was an item on the news this morning about a local lollypop man being off work sick and teachers not being allowed to do the job themselves because they are not properly qualified and haven't had the appropriate council approved health and safety training. :blink: It's little stories like that that make me realise this country is absolutely stuffed beyond all recognition. Stories like that are just a microcosm of the dire state of this country and anyone who believes that ordinary folk can prosper here anymore is delusional.

Health and Safety. :lol::lol::lol:

Another couple of examples for you, recommended to an unnamed hotel by their health & safety consultant:

1) Do not allow your staff to use tippex at work, it is a health risk because it can be sniffed (solvents) and it is a flammable liquid. However these staff who must not use tippex are the same ones who are allowed to use naked flames, 10-inch knives and boiling hot cooking oil in the kitchen. :rolleyes:

2) Your boiler thermostat must keep your hot water temperature above 50 degrees C to prevent Legionnaires disease. However, your boiler thermostat must keep your hot water temperature below 40 degrees C to prevent people getting scalded by it when it comes out of the tap. :huh:

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Interesting to hear someone say they might actually have been wrong.

Also its important to remember if you are waiting for a crash, that crashes dont happen over night. When it does start, you will have to wait another 5-6 years for the bottom of the market to get that bargain you've all been waiting for so long.

And the crash hasn't even begun yet!

Can you all wait that long? Is it worth it? Are there more important things in life than money?

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And the crash hasn't even begun yet!

Can you all wait that long? Is it worth it? Are there more important things in life than money?

Some argue the crash began in 2004.

But you're right, is it worth waiting several years so you can buy it cheaper? You could have bought a Canon 5D camera when it came out for £2100 and enjoyed it, or waited a year and pay only £1500.

Or maybe instead of buying the latest laptop now for £2000 why not wait a year for it to become obsolete and pick it up for half the price.

Do you ever buy new cars? Crazy! They depreciate as soon as you drive it away.

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I've been posting on this site for 18 months now, and while it hurts me to say "I was wrong", things certainly haven't panned out in the way I'd hoped. When I read my old posts I was convinced that the market couldn't continue without FTBs. And yet what has happened is that cheap credit has enabled middle-aged property owners (like me) to BTL the properties that FTBs would otherwise have bought, thus filling up the gap. At the moment the market doesn't need FTBs.

Sometimes on this site you get people posting requests for advice - "Should I buy?" and so on. I always said you should buy if you can afford somewhere which will suit you for the next five or ten years - if you start a family for example. I still think that was good advice. I didn't buy my first house till I was 35, and I think some young people on this site want the moon, and want it now.

In time, the baby-boom amateur landlords will die off and their properties will come onto the market again. It will correct itself eventually. But nowadays when I come on HPC I'm reminded of those end-of-the-world sects waiting in vain on mountain tops. Armageddon won't be arriving this week.

BA

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Some argue the crash began in 2004.

But you're right, is it worth waiting several years so you can buy it cheaper? You could have bought a Canon 5D camera when it came out for £2100 and enjoyed it, or waited a year and pay only £1500.

Or maybe instead of buying the latest laptop now for £2000 why not wait a year for it to become obsolete and pick it up for half the price.

Do you ever buy new cars? Crazy! They depreciate as soon as you drive it away.

Camera's, Cars, Laptops all depreciate... houses apreciate :)

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Guest mattsta1964

Health and Safety. :lol::lol::lol:

Another couple of examples for you, recommended to an unnamed hotel by their health & safety consultant:

1) Do not allow your staff to use tippex at work, it is a health risk because it can be sniffed (solvents) and it is a flammable liquid. However these staff who must not use tippex are the same ones who are allowed to use naked flames, 10-inch knives and boiling hot cooking oil in the kitchen. :rolleyes:

2) Your boiler thermostat must keep your hot water temperature above 50 degrees C to prevent Legionnaires disease. However, your boiler thermostat must keep your hot water temperature below 40 degrees C to prevent people getting scalded by it when it comes out of the tap. :huh:

Beggars belief doesn't it!

Soon, you'll be required to paint yellow and black chevrons above every doorway in your house with a 6'6" Max height restriction emblazoned upon them in large bold latters. There's no limit to what the politically correct Stalinists will do to invade your privacy, steal your freedoms and use whatever means necessary to pay for all those civil servants' final salary pension schemes.

I see the effect of our hopelessly over regulated society every day at work. It is especially severe here as it is a manufacturing company. There are a whole gaggle of people employed here on quite high salaries whose sole task is to implement ludicrous health and safety regulations. On paper, this place made a profit but all the savvy people know it's impossible and the parent company had to cook the books royale to make it possible.

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Oh dear, what's all this then – didn't happen in the timeframe I wanted it to so it's not going to happen mentality creeping in me thinks. Put a realistic timeframe on things rather than bleating on about how it won't happen because it hasn't happend yet FFS. I've always said 2010 will be a good time – and if it's not then I have a back up plan of moving to NZ. It's called being realistic and having a secondary option - works for me! :)

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Some argue the crash began in 2004.

But you're right, is it worth waiting several years so you can buy it cheaper? You could have bought a Canon 5D camera when it came out for £2100 and enjoyed it, or waited a year and pay only £1500.

Or maybe instead of buying the latest laptop now for £2000 why not wait a year for it to become obsolete and pick it up for half the price.

Do you ever buy new cars? Crazy! They depreciate as soon as you drive it away.

hi Durch CD ;)

yes, but remember a house isn't a luxury item which all the rest are.

and the amounts of money we are talking about are a little bit different arn't they :o:lol:

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i'm with you - i was a believer for a long time in the impending crash but meanwhile all i have to show for it is a massive increase in the rent i have to pay. unfortunately my partner is still convinced prices will fall in five years or so and would prefer to pay more in rent than mortgage in anticipation of the eventual bargains. i'm 36 and really fed with moving every year and living with other people's crap furnishings. i don't think i'd mind if we could find a decent place to rent and stay there, but that hasn't happened and we've moved 5 times in 5 years for one reason and another.

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A HPC has now been relegated to my Plan B.

Most people shouldn’t put their life on hold for a HPC. Make plans that allow you to develop in life, accumulate savings, investments and whatever you happen to hold dear. Depending on your age and circumstances in life consider renting, moving abroad for an extended period and/or starting a family.

Position yourself to benefit from a hard or soft crash in UK property in a 2-8 year time frame. :ph34r:

On a more personal note: If I can convince my girlfriend to settle down (she’s just been offered yet another job in yet another German city 3 hours away) for an extended period then I’ll be looking to buy German property in the next 2-3 years. I strongly believe that people should be able to buy when it suits them, and not have to speculate on national/global price bubbles.

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Missus and I have just been talking about a plan B. House is too small now we have kids, can't afford to move up without a stretch, don't want to STR as it seems impossible to time it right (I posted my STR spreadsheet on here 1.5 years ago!). We've been trying to stick it out but it is affecting quality of life for kids (son in a box room which was fine when he was a baby but not now). I still think there's going to be a humungous crash but as people are saying on here, you miss out potentially on quality of life whilst waiting. However, if we did buy now I know our quality of life would be deeply affected with a huge mortgage and lower retirement funds. The only rational solution I can come up with is to extend the current house by converting the loft and adding a conservatory or rear extension. We were lucky in timing as we bought mid 90s so mortgage is pretty low (first time buy small 3 bedroom house with decent garden on 3 x 1 salary - FTBs note those days could come again!). Won't be MEWing though - gonna save hard and build the extension for cash.

I appreciate this isn't an example for people in rented accomodation or flats, but I think the lack of upgraders will stall the market also. Anyway, that's our plan B - extend the house without extending debt.

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Missus and I have just been talking about a plan B. House is too small now we have kids, can't afford to move up without a stretch, don't want to STR as it seems impossible to time it right (I posted my STR spreadsheet on here 1.5 years ago!). We've been trying to stick it out but it is affecting quality of life for kids (son in a box room which was fine when he was a baby but not now). I still think there's going to be a humungous crash but as people are saying on here, you miss out potentially on quality of life whilst waiting. However, if we did buy now I know our quality of life would be deeply affected with a huge mortgage and lower retirement funds. The only rational solution I can come up with is to extend the current house by converting the loft and adding a conservatory or rear extension. We were lucky in timing as we bought mid 90s so mortgage is pretty low (first time buy small 3 bedroom house with decent garden on 3 x 1 salary - FTBs note those days could come again!). Won't be MEWing though - gonna save hard and build the extension for cash.

I appreciate this isn't an example for people in rented accomodation or flats, but I think the lack of upgraders will stall the market also. Anyway, that's our plan B - extend the house without extending debt.

There is a whiff of capitulation on this board, and me thinks I may well be one of them. There seems to be fewer and fewer people making posts.

Will be looking to buy in the next 2 months. We cannot hold back any longer. Since we moved into rented accommodation last year, my 4 year old daughter spends most nights in our bedroom as she doesn’t feel safe or like her bedroom, which we are unable to decorate to our taste as it owned by someone else. We have stopped asking our friends around for dinner as the oven is unreliable, and the house simply does not feel like our home. I spend every day looking at sites like this, and feel angry with myself for not reading the micro-economic conditions that has led to such huge property rises in areas where we live (SW London) which has good schools, transport, shopping and recreation facilities.

I see people like Realistbear are still plugging away at a potential HPC, but it simply isn’t going to happen overnight, nor, as far I can see, in the foreseeable future. There are simply too few properties on sale where we live. Even the sh**y homes by the A3 which is practically a motorway, are going for absurd prices.

I have just been offered a permanent job that I have accepted. It’s less than what I currently earn as a freelance IT consultant, but it gives me a semblance of security.

I have no doubt prices are dropping outside the M25 region. I have seen it myself in Birmingham. But Birmingham is not London, and I cannot take the risk of house prices picking up again after the New Year, which may happen if people think the rising Interest cycle has ended.

I will cut back by not buying a travelcard as I cycle or run into work most days anyway, and the extra exercise will be good for my Ironman Triathlon training. There are always some bonuses from having to watch your pennies

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There is a whiff of capitulation on this board, and me thinks I may well be one of them. There seems to be fewer and fewer people making posts.

Will be looking to buy in the next 2 months. We cannot hold back any longer. Since we moved into rented accommodation last year, my 4 year old daughter spends most nights in our bedroom as she doesn’t feel safe or like her bedroom, which we are unable to decorate to our taste as it owned by someone else. We have stopped asking our friends around for dinner as the oven is unreliable, and the house simply does not feel like our home. I spend every day looking at sites like this, and feel angry with myself for not reading the micro-economic conditions that has led to such huge property rises in areas where we live (SW London) which has good schools, transport, shopping and recreation facilities.

I see people like Realistbear are still plugging away at a potential HPC, but it simply isn’t going to happen overnight, nor, as far I can see, in the foreseeable future. There are simply too few properties on sale where we live. Even the sh**y homes by the A3 which is practically a motorway, are going for absurd prices.

I have just been offered a permanent job that I have accepted. It’s less than what I currently earn as a freelance IT consultant, but it gives me a semblance of security.

I have no doubt prices are dropping outside the M25 region. I have seen it myself in Birmingham. But Birmingham is not London, and I cannot take the risk of house prices picking up again after the New Year, which may happen if people think the rising Interest cycle has ended.

I will cut back by not buying a travelcard as I cycle or run into work most days anyway, and the extra exercise will be good for my Ironman Triathlon training. There are always some bonuses from having to watch your pennies

strange post.

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I'm 100% sure UK property will be less difficult to acquire in the future. AKA cheaper.

Also I don't think wage inflation here will climb in significant real terms ever again.

To sum up UK workers will at no point in the foreseeable future (20 years) be much richer than they are now.

The wealth of the Western world was derived from the mechanical working capacity of their past economies. Some of this wealth was exchanged for arms, some was used to produce arms, those arms are now necessary secure the fuel to drive the mechanical work. Since our own fuel is all but gone and others want the fuel for their own machinary. You may think Western industry is all but over... yet every day almost every western workers transports 2 tonnes of steel and leather for 10 or 20 miles as they commute to and from work.

The ability of the Western worker to do this is diminishing. In 20 years it will seem ridiculous. Yet many will owe the proceeds of their work to the bank backed by the law and the police (who I imagine will be armed). They will have to work and work much longer and harder as they are no longer so heavily subsidised by fuel consuming machinery. When we start to feel fuel drying up work subsidy through mechanisation will diminish and manual labour will be necessary to replace it. Who will provide this work? Who will have to work? Those in debt, everyone. Labour will be in heavy supply so it will be cheap.

So a loan representing many years of work, that will remain outstanding far into the foreseeable future is a silly thing to accept.

The fact is the oil age will start winding up. Not today, not tomorrow but at some point over a 25 year mortgage?

Of course it will. It may not collapse but economies will stop growing and begin to retract.

Bicycles do not plough fields.

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  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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