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Ireland: Change In Sentiment Makes It To Tv


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http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/1019/primetime.html [realplayer required]

Now that Joe Specuvestor has seen this will he panic??

It's amusing , this rush to sell by the owners of second-hand houses. Given the market is overloaded, some sellers are having to drop their prices, to achieve a sale. Of course, they may not reveal the discount to their neighbours, thereby perpetuating the fiction that higher prices are being achieved.

The neighbours are not fooled, but are in denial, because they are in a panic. The result, as one estate put it to me this week, is a wholesale rush to dispose of second-hand houses, in spite of a glut on the market. It's hard, too, to have sympathy for the laggards who are making fools of themselves by rushing to sell when the market has peaked.

This week I saw two identical 'For Sale' signs on neighbours' houses. In another street, three signs, next door to each other. In adjoining streets of terraced red-bricks, there is a rash of 'For Sale' signs, amounting to a contagion, that is becoming an epidemic.

The vendors are in cloud-cuckoo land and will likely pay the (discounted) price of their own indecision. Try as I might, I cannot lose sleep over them - 'fortune favours the brave', as we heard ad nauseam during the recent baiting by the classically educated Gonzaga boy of the Northside mendicant. It's as true now as when devised and all too knowingly true in the bank balances of those who had the bottle to sell earlier....

Now, it's probably too late to realise the massive profits of recent years. It was put to me graphically by one estate agent: "In the past three months, I sold three identical houses in the same street. The prices were - €1.5m, €1.4.m, €1.1m - in that declining order per month. The market peaked in June and had been in decline since - but sellers have panicked. There's no telling them to wait."

more >>

Heading for the exits

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/property/...0606764852.html

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Not that I need to tell people here this, but if you want to see what a HPC looks like up-close-and-personal, watch Ireland, because our HPC started sometime in the last 4 or 5 weeks. Sometime around, say, September 14th.

September 13th: Rampant HPI Madness.

Setember 14th: Fear.

It has been that quick. Out of nowhere - TV, papers, radio, mates in the pub, work colleagues at watercooler - everyone has suddenly got the fear. It has been absolutely astounding to see how quickly it has happened. I honestly never, never imagined sentiment could turn this quickly.

Ah, sentiment. Again, naively, I never fully grasped the enormity of the importance of sentiment. Now, it's clear as day that sentiment is the glue that binds the whole mess togther. In a real sense, it is all that matters.

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Sentiment does change very quickly.

In the US houses were the best investment "safe as houses" etc. Stocks were considered a mugs game, epecially internet and tech.

Within 3 months, stocks are all the rage again, and houses are considered a mugs game and very difficult to sell right now.

Some call it sector rotation. I think it is more like smart money getting out of one bubble and start to inflate another, while the first bubble crashes and burns.

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Great news , this was the most overheated market of all , this is what we need in our media i feel sentiment here really wants to change it just needs a little nudge , the VI's here are doing all they possibly can to stop there precious bubble blowing up in there faces , i'm SOOOOOOOOOOOO looking forward early next year in the UK .

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Interesting. I would love to hear how this pans out on the ground, from those who live in Ireland!

I will keep you updated re, NI

Here the market is still turning over, coming off the summer highs (note use of the word 'still'!)

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Have a look at this thread for a few laughs.

http://www.rte.ie/comments/propertycrash.html

Those people who want house prices to come down should take a look at themselves. What we need is more money changing hands and the best way of doing that is to make sure people continue to buy houses. All the moaners about house prices tend to be people who don't own their own home - no coincidence. Do we want this boom to stop? You 'bust' be joking. Ciaran, Portrane
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Not that I need to tell people here this, but if you want to see what a HPC looks like up-close-and-personal, watch Ireland, because our HPC started sometime in the last 4 or 5 weeks. Sometime around, say, September 14th.

September 13th: Rampant HPI Madness.

Setember 14th: Fear.

It has been that quick. Out of nowhere - TV, papers, radio, mates in the pub, work colleagues at watercooler - everyone has suddenly got the fear.

Yes i wonder when our turn comes we could pin it down to a exact time , maybe Mervyn will say something and that in turn will officially set about the U-Turn .

Our VI's really must smell the scent of fear now ................... bring on the fear of the HPC grim reaper :ph34r:

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HPC WORLD TOUR 2006/7

Australia - Jul 06

USA - Aug 06

Spain - Aug 06

Rep Ireland - Sep 06

coming to a country near you, soon!

Its the HPC wave effect. IMF got it right when they said it was a wordwide phenomena and would crash like dominoes.

My bet is on seeing some real action to the downside 6 months after the crash got underway in California and they went YoY negative for the first time in July of this year (currently down 4.4% overall YoY). If the market panics here we could even see some sharp falls this side of Christmas. :o

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Its the HPC wave effect. IMF got it right when they said it was a wordwide phenomena and would crash like dominoes.

My bet is on seeing some real action to the downside 6 months after the crash got underway in California and they went YoY negative for the first time in July of this year (currently down 4.4% overall YoY). If the market panics here we could even see some sharp falls this side of Christmas. :o

I must say it is looking very fragile at the moment - the frantic trolling we have witnessed in the last week or so would seem to bear this out too.

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If the market panics here we could even see some sharp falls this side of Christmas. :o

Come on RB , there are times when your bearishness needs to drop down a gear before you spin yourself completly out of control :rolleyes:

I reckon your already almost hitting the peak of excitement as the bad news piles up :) , god knows what your be like in spring of next year .

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Not that I need to tell people here this, but if you want to see what a HPC looks like up-close-and-personal, watch Ireland, because our HPC started sometime in the last 4 or 5 weeks. Sometime around, say, September 14th.

September 13th: Rampant HPI Madness.

Setember 14th: Fear.

It has been that quick. Out of nowhere - TV, papers, radio, mates in the pub, work colleagues at watercooler - everyone has suddenly got the fear. It has been absolutely astounding to see how quickly it has happened. I honestly never, never imagined sentiment could turn this quickly.

Ah, sentiment. Again, naively, I never fully grasped the enormity of the importance of sentiment. Now, it's clear as day that sentiment is the glue that binds the whole mess togther. In a real sense, it is all that matters.

Chomp, your post is wonderful, and I wholeheartedly agree with you. This should be pinned.

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Its the HPC wave effect. IMF got it right when they said it was a wordwide phenomena and would crash like dominoes.

My bet is on seeing some real action to the downside 6 months after the crash got underway in California and they went YoY negative for the first time in July of this year (currently down 4.4% overall YoY). If the market panics here we could even see some sharp falls this side of Christmas. :o

Now is the time to include house prices in the inflation figures for the BoE. As they fall they can cut interest rates. Magic!

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Now that would make a great T-shirt!

Nearly as good as my 1980's "Adolf Hitler World Tour" T-Shirt.

Remember those:

France

Belgium

Holland

England (Cancelled)

Russia (Cancelled)

They don't make them like that any more.

I even wore it on a trip to Germany in 1986 and it drew some strange glances!

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September 13th: Rampant HPI Madness.

Setember 14th: Fear.

It has been that quick. Out of nowhere - TV, papers, radio, mates in the pub, work colleagues at watercooler - everyone has suddenly got the fear. It has been absolutely astounding to see how quickly it has happened. I honestly never, never imagined sentiment could turn this quickly.

I think the speed and violence of an implosion depends on the size of the bubble and the tensions it contains - just like a real bubble in nature.

It's funny how apparantly very different phenomena - a film of liquid containing air and a market in property, for example, can behave in very similar ways.

Has anyone heard of catastrophe theory? I seem to remember it was briefly in the news in the early eighties and predicted mathematically how sudden changes or 'catastrophes' behaved.

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So prices in Ireland are on the slippery slope.

For me the thing about this that is really satisfying is that the interest rate in Ireland is at a wopping 3.25% and also Ireland has a large influx of immigrants from Eastern Europe. Now according to property bulls we cant have a crash in the UK because 1. We have low interest rates and 2. We have large scale immigration. Two bull arguments shown to be bull sh*t in one - excellent. Bring it on.

I think we should also note the comments about how fear is spreading by word of mouth ..... this is where we can all play a part ... time to spread the word .. write to your local paper , national paper, tell your workmates ... leave suitable news articles lying around in public places, shout it from the roof tops ...........

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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