Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Immigration Is Fuelling H P I According To Consensus


Recommended Posts

http://www.24dash.com/news/1/11504/index.htm

UK house prices bumped up by 'increased immigration'

Published: 12/10/2006 - 10:19:34 AM

The average UK house price has been bumped up to almost £170,000 as a result of a good economy and increased immigration, figures released today showed....../
Fionnuala Earley, group economist at Nationwide, said: "House prices increased in every region of the UK over the last twelve months, supported by robust economic conditions and
high levels of immigration
."
Ed Stansfield, property economist at Capital Economics, said: "Job creation in the UK is still good and the economy is still growing and on top of that you have got
immigration running at a very high level
.
"Although
newly-arrived immigrants
do not go straight down to the estate agents to buy, they do need to be housed somewhere and it has a knock-on effect."

Couple high levels of immigration with accomodative IR and unlimited credit and you have a recipe for a monster bubble where earning multiples may hit 20 X. So long as wages keep up the miracle can last forever--truly miraculous!

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 109
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

[

Published: 12/10/2006 - 10:19:34 AM

The average UK house price has been bumped up to almost £170,000 as a result of a good economy and increased immigration, figures released today showed....../
Fionnuala Earley, group economist at Nationwide, said: "House prices increased in every region of the UK over the last twelve months, supported by robust economic conditions and
high levels of immigration
."
I have long argued on this site that it is not the "poor" Eastern Europeans affecting the housing market (they are great for the btl fraternity) but the very rich and company executives and their entourages. I repeat, London and the South East housing stock are now global commodities i.e not influenced by local conditions or a local market. The absence of FTB's will mean nothing and prices will continue to grow. Those whom I advised to get onto the ladder in 2004 taking note only of location, are now in a good position and it might have been the last time they could afford a home. Do note the article below:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2399627,00.html' rel="external nofollow">
Link to post
Share on other sites

That is OK. Also posted on this site is an artcle blaming immigrants for wage inflation. So I guess it all evens out :)

Well, until tomorrow when immigrants are blamed for keep wages low again, and everyone is complaining about them sending money overseas!

Link to post
Share on other sites

im not sure if i go along with this.

dont a lot of people also LEAVE the uk eack year.?

and anyway. they could always build more homes on those fields which seem to house about 14 sheep so well.

sheep are the new workers. we take second place it seems.

i think its a planned land / lendng control issue from the top, to fuel the spending/pensions of the generation from the 1970s. making them feel well off - thus voting new labour.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Couple high levels of immigration with accomodative IR and unlimited credit and you have a recipe for a monster bubble where earning multiples may hit 20 X. So long as wages keep up the miracle can last forever--truly miraculous!

It'll only continue until GB secures Labour a 4th term

He'll have to call an early election as soon as he become PM - I don't think he can string it out for the next 3 years...

Link to post
Share on other sites

If the Nationwide have only just noticed this they are years behind the times.

Immigration was Gordon's last toss of the dice, designed to keep HPI on the road until he's safely ensconced in number 10.

Long term, immigration is apalling news for the UK. Wages go down and house prices go up. It's a double whammy of the most painful kind. Also, we aren't short of workers in the UK, we've got over 5 million people out of work and claiming benefits (of which the "jobseekers" amount to slightly under 2m.) We don't actually need the immigrants; it just suits the government for us to take them.

Eastern Europeans will tolerate much higher density occupation, both because they are used to a lower standard of living, and because they don't have families (over here) and can muck in 10 to a house. So up go rents to a level the natives can't afford, and house prices likewise.

The trouble with immigration is there is no obvious end to it. Poland may be drained, but there's Bulgaria and Romania coming, and Turkey on the horizon. These people can push houseprices up to unimaginable levels just by renting/buying in gangs.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree, the mass immigration is purposeful

causing wages to deflate

making it harder to get a low paid job

making people work harder and longer hours

it will drive up rents and landlord costs as people share

IMHO the new HMO rules have the same effect as it reduces the number of large house shares, there now have to be more smaller house shares. This will increase HMO starts to be more strictly enforced as the gov runs out of money.

I have a horrible feeling that immigration will accelerate until the economy collapses, we have mass emigration and a HPC. But the massive immigration is keeping prices high and stopping prices fall. Imagine we hadnt had large scale immigration in 2004? where would we be now?

Edited by moosetea
Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a horrible feeling that immigration will accelerate until the economy collapses, we have mass emigration and a HPC. But the massive immigration is keeping prices high and stopping prices fall. Imagine we hadnt had large scale immigration in 2004? where would we be now?

You should factor in that after immigrants have been here two years they are entitled to benefits. Where is it better to be unemployed, here or Poland/Romania/Bulgaria/Turkey? Don't count on them leaving even if there are no jobs.

Link to post
Share on other sites

im not sure if i go along with this.

dont a lot of people also LEAVE the uk eack year.?

and anyway. they could always build more homes on those fields which seem to house about 14 sheep so well.

sheep are the new workers. we take second place it seems.

i think its a planned land / lendng control issue from the top, to fuel the spending/pensions of the generation from the 1970s. making them feel well off - thus voting new labour.

More people enter than leave.

You are right we could always build more homes on fields but this takes time. Also sometimes the land is in a flood plain which means new housing is a bad idea.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Countries rely on immigration to remain dynamic. Britain certainly has for centuries, we are a nation of immigrants. I agree that there have been short-term problems from the recent influx and that rising house prices is one of those problems, but do we really want to live in a country with a declining population of aging, stuffy xenophobes? Sounds like a recipe for economic disaster to me.

Look at who these immigrants are. Almost none are here to sponge off the system. By definition they are the most dynamic, usually young people in their countries - mostly intelligent and well educated. Many will head back to their countries after a few years of broadening their horizons, hopefully with good English and an affection for the Uk. Those who remain will most likely be model citizens and their taxes will pay our pensions and health-care.

Edited by time_and_tide
Link to post
Share on other sites

[

Published: 12/10/2006 - 10:19:34 AM

The average UK house price has been bumped up to almost £170,000 as a result of a good economy and increased immigration, figures released today showed....../
Fionnuala Earley, group economist at Nationwide, said: "House prices increased in every region of the UK over the last twelve months, supported by robust economic conditions and
high levels of immigration
."
I have long argued on this site that it is not the "poor" Eastern Europeans affecting the housing market (they are great for the btl fraternity) but the very rich and company executives and their entourages. I repeat, London and the South East housing stock are now global commodities i.e not influenced by local conditions or a local market. The absence of FTB's will mean nothing and prices will continue to grow. Those whom I advised to get onto the ladder in 2004 taking note only of location, are now in a good position and it might have been the last time they could afford a home. Do note the article below:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,6-2399627,00.html' rel="external nofollow">
Strange you should mention that. Southern California is a global community and the 6th largest economy in the world. Los Angeles is among the largest cities in the world and truly a global community. House prices are crashing there--hard.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Saw a newsnight program recently where a Romainian was preparing food in the toilet for her kids. Their only source of running water.

Of course there is going to be a massive further wave of MASS immigration, lowering wages much further and raising the limited stock of resources much much further out of ordinary peoples reach. i.e. lowering living standards for those who don't own and now never will.

Its not peoples labour that can earn these resources, as the tax breaks to the rich and rising rents move all property to their hands.

Modern day surfdom is here, ID cards, reporting yourself every time you move etc...fines, taxes, under the thumb of the local and national state, the cherry on top coming in 17 months time.

Not a bad return for the the rich, corrupt funders/'loaners' and millions of backhanders of the mainstream poltical parties (who would be bankrupt without these huge bungs of corrupt cash).

Link to post
Share on other sites

Strange you should mention that. Southern California is a global community and the 6th largest economy in the world. Los Angeles is among the largest cities in the world and truly a global community. House prices are crashing there--hard.

Perhaps unlike the UK they built more than enough homes for new immigrants ? Obviously if immigrationis not the only cause of the house price boom but if demand (for any reason) goes up and supply doesn't then prices go up. It is a widely accepted view that if demand rices but supply doesn't then prices go up.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Modern day surfdom is here, ID cards, reporting yourself every time you move etc...fines, taxes, under the thumb of the local and national state, the cherry on top coming in 17 months time.

Where did you here that?

Last time I checked I could go anywhere I wanted inside this country and no one gave a sh*t :)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Mortgage deals that divide the haves and have-nots

Rupert Jones

Wednesday October 11, 2006

The Guardian

It's a tale of two mortgages that highlights the yawning divide between Britain's property haves and have-nots.

Recent graduates facing impossibly high prices were yesterday advised to club together if they want to get on to the property ladder. With many convinced that the dream of home ownership is slipping out of their grasp, one building society has launched a home loan that allows up to four young professionals to get together to buy a house and borrow up to 12 times each one's income as an individual.

At the same time, Barclays' Woolwich arm is wooing hedge fund managers, bankers and traders with its "City bonus" mortgage. The Woolwich said it was the first lender to launch a home loan exclusively aimed at those expecting bumper bonuses in the new year who want to buy now. "Only those who wish to borrow over £500,000 need apply," it said.

What unites these two disparate groups is a desire to buy sooner rather than later. Most commentators agree house prices are continuing to grow with surprising strength, particularly in London. Government figures revealed this week that £3,000 was added to the value of the average British house during August, with the most expensive homes in London's Kensington and Chelsea reportedly costing 25% more than in January.

Amid reports that more than half of graduates are frozen out of the property market, Britannia building society is offering the "share to buy" mortgage, enabling up to four people to club together and lending up to three times their combined salaries. "With many people feeling that rent to a landlord is money down the drain, it is becoming more acceptable for friends to club together," a spokesman for the building society said.

Meanwhile, Andy Gray, head of mortgages at the Woolwich, said of its City bonus mortgage: "Most people expecting a large bonus in January or February will already have a good idea if they are going to get one ... If they wait for the bonus, the property may have gone."

Where did you here that?

Last time I checked I could go anywhere I wanted inside this country and no one gave a sh*t :)

Its statue law coming into effect under the ID card bill in 2007. If you fail to report your movement you may be fined thousands. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/c...1-7.html#j004ZA

Edited by brainclamp
Link to post
Share on other sites

Countries rely on immigration to remain dynamic.

Japan has done better on the whole than the UK since the last world war with almost zero immigration.

Look at who these immigrants are. Almost none are here to sponge off the system.

Are you on drugs ? I know loads of immigrants who come here for cheap housing and get their English lessons paid etc.

Most immigrants I know earn less than me and live in nicer housing - of course they sponge off the system.

What world do you live in.

Those who remain will most likely be model citizens and their taxes will pay our pensions and health-care.

7-July-2005, 21-July-2005, numerous other bomb plots, murder of a police woman in Bradford etc,etc - more like a drain on our taxes.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You should factor in that after immigrants have been here two years they are entitled to benefits. Where is it better to be unemployed, here or Poland/Romania/Bulgaria/Turkey? Don't count on them leaving even if there are no jobs.

Sweden..

The trouble with immigration is there is no obvious end to it. Poland may be drained, but there's Bulgaria and Romania coming, and Turkey on the horizon. These people can push houseprices up to unimaginable levels just by renting/buying in gangs.

If Poland is drained then given the relatice size of Bulgaria and Romania it shouldnt be too bad.. Perhaps..

Turkey..

Thats another problem altogether..

Hmm...

I dont think that the UK would be the only "large" EU country to allow immediate access to a country with a population the size of Turkey..

Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you on drugs ? I know loads of immigrants who come here for cheap housing and get their English lessons paid etc.

Most immigrants I know earn less than me and live in nicer housing - of course they sponge off the system.

What world do you live in.

7-July-2005, 21-July-2005, numerous other bomb plots, murder of a police woman in Bradford etc,etc - more like a drain on our taxes.

So housing here is cheaper than in Poland and Eastern Europeans are terrorists? Yes, you certainly live in the real world. :lol:

Edited by time_and_tide
Link to post
Share on other sites

Are you on drugs ? I know loads of immigrants who come here for cheap housing and get their English lessons paid etc.

Most immigrants I know earn less than me and live in nicer housing - of course they sponge off the system.

What world do you live in.

In my current job practically 50% of the staff are immigrants and they all earn a significant multiple of your earnings.

Your highly selective sample probably says more about you than about them..

Visited any Blue Chip companies in the City of London lately..

Visited any of the top 5 UK Unis lately?

Kings and UCL are dominated by Indians and Asians.. Imperial has traditionally attracted the foreign student

Significant inroads are being made into Oxbridge...

Are you on drugs..?

Or just suffering from a deprived upbringing?

Simple statistics demonstrates that there are more "intelligent" foreigners than there are brits.. True open competition would result in more brits being displaced in favour of "immigrants".. Look at football.. Same phenomenon...

Edited by Wuluf
Link to post
Share on other sites

In my current job practically 50% of the staff are immigrants and they all earn a significant multiple of your earnings.

You have amazing mental powers and know all about me. Obviously it is a waste of time talking to someone with ESP or thinks he has. Do your mental powers tell you that all immigrants are model citizens ? Perhaps you should work in immigration control.

Are you on drugs..?

Or just suffering from a deprived upbringing?

Neither.

Simple statistics demonstrates that there are more "intelligent" foreigners than there are brits.. True open competition would result in more brits being displaced in favour of "immigrants".. Look at football.. Same phenomenon...

Only if there are more intelligent foreigners who want to come here than Brits. Countries with lower paid footballers do not have this phenomenon.

So housing here is cheaper than in Poland and Eastern Europeans are terrorists? Yes, you certainly live in the real world. :lol:

I was talking about all immigrants. Sorry who started talking about just East Europeans ?

The original post was about immigration you never mentioned East Europeans in your post. :-

Look at who these immigrants are. Almost none are here to sponge off the system. By definition they are the most dynamic, usually young people in their countries - mostly intelligent and well educated. Many will head back to their countries after a few years of broadening their horizons, hopefully with good English and an affection for the Uk. Those who remain will most likely be model citizens and their taxes will pay our pensions and health-care.

I know people who don't pay any rent - that is very cheap :) - although not Poles.

Do you think all immigration in the last few years has been from Eastern Europe ? Why do you think that ?

BTW I have no problems with immigration just no chavs, criminals or muslims - I travel on public transport.

Link to post
Share on other sites

You have amazing mental powers and know all about me. Obviously it is a waste of time talking to someone with ESP or thinks he has. Do your mental powers tell you that all immigrants are model citizens ? Perhaps you should work in immigration control.

Not at all..

Very few people are model citizens..

Only if there are more intelligent foreigners who want to come here than Brits. Countries with lower paid footballers do not have this phenomenon.

And I thought that everyone wanted to come here? :lol: Silly me.

Edited by Wuluf
Link to post
Share on other sites

Not at all..

Very few people are model citizens..

And I thought that everyone wanted to come here? :lol: Silly me.

Who said that ? I never did.

I am glad that you agree that very few people are model citizens ? So do you agree that we should let immigrants in who are like you (and mine) colleagues ie people who are at least semi model citizens and not those who come for benefits. Or do you believe that such a thing is a tabloid invention ?

BTW the reason why I know people who come for benefits and free English lessons is because I speak Spanish and Portuguese. The number of people who ask for asylum and go home on holiday as soon as they get it and a council house is amazing.

Edited by iamnumerate
Link to post
Share on other sites

.

Only if there are more intelligent foreigners who want to come here than Brits.

Not all foreigners are more intelligent than Brits, but the ones who get off their arses and try to make a go of it in another country are likely to be rather more dynamic and fearless than most people.

They're often more intelligent too.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Not all foreigners are more intelligent than Brits, but the ones who get off their arses and try to make a go of it in another country are likely to be rather more dynamic and fearless than most people.

They're often more intelligent too.

Is there any evidence for this ?

They could just be people too stupid to realise that coming to another country is difficult and won't give them a perfect life.

Or people who have been told by friends "come here they gave me a house"- people told my wife that.

Or people who want a British passport in case their country has problems (eg white South Africans)

Or people who want to travel.

Or people who have skills which are better here than in their country (eg people who want to teach their own language, plumbers - they are not so well paid everwhere -, footballers).

Criminals on the run.

Or a mixture of the above

Do you think that if I was to go to Australia I should get paid more than here for the same job because :-

"the ones who get off their arses and try to make a go of it in another country are likely to be rather more dynamic and fearless than most people.

They're often more intelligent too."

If you do believe that good bye and good luck.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I was talking about all immigrants. Sorry who started talking about just East Europeans ?

The original post was about immigration you never mentioned East Europeans in your post. :-

I know people who don't pay any rent - that is very cheap :) - although not Poles.

Do you think all immigration in the last few years has been from Eastern Europe ? Why do you think that ?

BTW I have no problems with immigration just no chavs, criminals or muslims - I travel on public transport.

Well I don't like people who come to the UK to scrounge or blow people up either. Nor people who hate our way of life. Of course they should be excluded.

I mention east europeans because they clearly don't fit into the above catagories and because this is where the great influx of immigrants has come from since their countries joined the EU.

If you're going to blame the govt for undercutting us all by encouraging immigrants, then it's E. Europeans you're talking about.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 441 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.