Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Just having a rant-I am bored and pissed off with a HPC that refuses to happen, especially in London where I am. I was expecting one around 2003/4 for logical reasons that are familiar to many. Here we are a few years later and house inflation is still rising apparently. I would go and buy a new house but unfortunately I still (logically) expect a crash against all evidence and ,yes, media spin. :angry: Angry Scooter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsta1964 Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Just having a rant-I am bored and pissed off with a HPC that refuses to happen, especially in London where I am. I was expecting one around 2003/4 for logical reasons that are familiar to many. Here we are a few years later and house inflation is still rising apparently. I would go and buy a new house but unfortunately I still (logically) expect a crash against all evidence and ,yes, media spin. :angry: Angry Scooter It'll go on until currency has been so debased, the whole system will collapse. They aren't brave enough to control inflation now for fear of crashing the housing market. So they are gonna crash currency instead! Wooopppee! That'll work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Just having a rant-I am bored and pissed off with a HPC that refuses to happen, especially in London where I am. I was expecting one around 2003/4 for logical reasons that are familiar to many. Here we are a few years later and house inflation is still rising apparently. I would go and buy a new house but unfortunately I still (logically) expect a crash against all evidence and ,yes, media spin. :angry: Angry Scooter Maybe it will happen next year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 It'll go on until currency has been so debased, the whole system will collapse. They aren't brave enough to control inflation now for fear of crashing the housing market. So they are gonna crash currency instead! Wooopppee! That'll work! What does that actually mean for real or nominal house prices assuming most of us earn in £ and buy houses in £? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinndexter Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 I stopped looking for a house 3 years ago. At the time houses were just shooting up in price and exceeding what, based on the deposit I had got, I could safetly borrow to buy one. Everyone told me that the HPC was coming and even some friends who knew people working in Estate agents told me that they were worried about how the market seemed to be turning. However after one breath of fresh air, such as IR's going up, we get reports in the media that Bank X says that house prices are strong and have gone up by 8%...blah..blah...blah. It just seems never ending. More and more people are coming into this country and buying up houses. Hardly any decent starter homes are being built and banks/ building socieities are still throwing money at the masses in a bid to stoke this bubble. All these websites are started in a bid to help but no one challenges the government to do something about it, or to help explain why they let it get out of control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 (edited) I have been pondering how high could it go before it cant go any higher and i believe until rent/morage on a small flat consumes 100% of the average income. Ie rent/morgage on an ex council 2 bedroom flat costs 1600k a month, at this level one person in the couple would pay the morgage/rent the other would pay the bill and food. In some EE european/countries prices have almost been inflated to these levels In real terms thats a morgage of..... 384k IMHO ultimate ceiling at current salaries, BUT... i dont think we get anywhere near it, the longer the bubble continues the bigger the economic damage. Obv, Lending would need to be further relaxed.... Edited October 4, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 I have been pondering how high could it go before it cant go any higher and i believe until rent/morage on a small flat consumes 100% of the average income. Ie rent/morgage on an ex council 2 bedroom flat costs 1600k a month, at this level one person in the couple would pay the morgage/rent the other would pay the bill and food. In some EE european/countries prices have almost been inflated to these levels In real terms thats a morgage of..... 384k IMHO ultimate ceiling at current salaries, BUT... i dont think we get anywhere near it, the longer the bubble continues the bigger the economic damage. That could be quite a long way off before rent/mortgage consumes ALL of average income! Starvation rations for a while before that point... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AteMoose Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 (edited) That could be quite a long way off before rent/mortgage consumes ALL of average income! Starvation rations for a while before that point... Not quite, during the last boom many people were in the situation where one partner in a couple was paying the whole morgage when interest rates and tax changes caused many morgages to violently increase (double?). A couple could survive like this single people couldnt and would be forced share with a friend(s). IMHO things wont get this bad, the ensuing crash would be cataclismic..... Edited October 4, 2006 by moosetea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 What does that actually mean for real or nominal house prices assuming most of us earn in £ and buy houses in £? It will mean that existing owners could see their debt inflated away. Real falls? Definitely. Nominal? Perhaps, but it would depend on how much chaos was caused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 It will mean that existing owners could see their debt inflated away. Real falls? Definitely. Nominal? Perhaps, but it would depend on how much chaos was caused. Hmm, that could take a while yet... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Converted Lurker Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Just having a rant-I am bored and pissed off with a HPC that refuses to happen, especially in London where I am. I was expecting one around 2003/4 for logical reasons that are familiar to many. Here we are a few years later and house inflation is still rising apparently. I would go and buy a new house but unfortunately I still (logically) expect a crash against all evidence and ,yes, media spin. :angry: Angry Scooter Antoher 40% is only 8% per annum over the next 5 full years, so they're not predicting anything just trotting out the same tired old rhetoric which was skillfully (lazily) twisted by main media sources to give a different spin on the true purpose of the original release. Accept it for what it is, wake up and before smelling coffee, make sure you've first bought it and take it in espresso style.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtfree Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 It'll go on until currency has been so debased, the whole system will collapse. They aren't brave enough to control inflation now for fear of crashing the housing market. So they are gonna crash currency instead! Wooopppee! That'll work! Inflation is infinite, which is why the banks and governements love it, they control it alright. The whole problem lies with not having a true financial system that cant be manipulated, hence why the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. We are all being completely screwed and I can see housing becoming so expensive that it will be the 'have's' and the 'have nots', this is the sort of world we are now living in now, its very sad. Ive posted this before and some will think its lunacy, but each day it seems we are heading to a world where.... PRIVATELY OWNED HOMES — "A THING OF THE PAST" Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. Sound familiar ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 Inflation is infinite, which is why the banks and governements love it, they control it alright. The whole problem lies with not having a true financial system that cant be manipulated, hence why the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. We are all being completely screwed and I can see housing becoming so expensive that it will be the 'have's' and the 'have nots', this is the sort of world we are now living in now, its very sad. Ive posted this before and some will think its lunacy, but each day it seems we are heading to a world where.... PRIVATELY OWNED HOMES — "A THING OF THE PAST" Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. Sound familiar ? I think that is a bit apocalyptic. Assets rise and fall in cycles and houses will fall again, although ****** knows when. Hence my current annoyance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabHand Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Inflation is infinite, which is why the banks and governements love it, they control it alright. The whole problem lies with not having a true financial system that cant be manipulated, hence why the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. We are all being completely screwed and I can see housing becoming so expensive that it will be the 'have's' and the 'have nots', this is the sort of world we are now living in now, its very sad. Ive posted this before and some will think its lunacy, but each day it seems we are heading to a world where.... PRIVATELY OWNED HOMES — "A THING OF THE PAST" Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. Sound familiar ? I dont really understand how you align empty houses with any kind of over-arching goal, let alone how you control the owners from dropping the price to make the sale. Some sort of HPI-Stasi police come round and threaten you if you try to go lower?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
debtfree Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 I think that is a bit apocalyptic. Assets rise and fall in cycles and houses will fall again, although ****** knows when. Hence my current annoyance. Yep, as you can see, its really annoying me as well. Nevermind, if it gets that expensive, just move country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abaxas Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Inflation is infinite, which is why the banks and governements love it, they control it alright. The whole problem lies with not having a true financial system that cant be manipulated, hence why the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. We are all being completely screwed and I can see housing becoming so expensive that it will be the 'have's' and the 'have nots', this is the sort of world we are now living in now, its very sad. Ive posted this before and some will think its lunacy, but each day it seems we are heading to a world where.... PRIVATELY OWNED HOMES — "A THING OF THE PAST" Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. Sound familiar ? Once privately owned homes are a thing of the past, who will buy houses? Who will think 'property only ever goes up'? Answer no-one. Who will buy these things? Will houses have any value? (think germany) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dogbox Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 [quote name='Scooter' I still (logically) expect a crash Scoot As Ive always said the 'logic' referred to by bears is in the main defunct and has no more place in todays world than mangles in the kitchen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 Dogbox said: "Scoot As Ive always said the 'logic' referred to by bears is in the main defunct and has no more place in todays world than mangles in the kitchen." All you are saying is it is different this time. That is a non-argument in itself. Address interest rates, money supply and asset cycles and I might be more impressed by your argument. Sorry! What is outdated (mangles?) about those concepts? S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since the beginning Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 I guess if you say that 4 million immigrants (legal and illegal) have entered the country since Labour took power and that they spend £300 a month on rent then an extra £14,400,000,000 will be being paid into rent or the housing market. So I guess it is definitely different this time - the UK is just shifting to a less well off nation per capita. This is not an argument for or against immigration just showing that it has a massive effect. N.B. Completely made up Statistic but I think between 3-4 million is a reasonable figure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuberider Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 What is it with the papers today saw this in my local rag today - is it a global VI thing to talk the market up this week ? ================================================ Get ready for a property boom By Jacqueline Theodoulou October 4th PROPERTY, apartment and detached house prices are expected to increase by seven to 12 per cent in the immediate future, the House Commerce Committee heard yesterday. According to the head of the Land Registry Department, Andreas Christodoulou, Cyprus is the cheapest country in the European Union when it comes to properties, apartments, houses and land. For this reason, he added, many Europeans are interested in coming to Cyprus and investing in land and properties. “From studies that were carried out by the Department, it appears that the value of land will increase when it comes to plots of land, apartments and detached homes, and this is mainly due to the great demand that exists from European citizens,” said Christodoulou. He stressed that the increase in prices would be within a legal framework and it would be estimated at between seven and 12 per cent, depending on the area. In some areas the price increase would be higher than in others, he added. Predictably, foreigners are more interested in coastal areas, said Christodoulou, adding that Paphos, Larnaca and more recently Limassol were most in demand with Europeans. But the Chairman of the Commerce Committee, DISY’s Lefteris Christoforou pointed out that Cypriots are already finding it difficult to purchase a home, without there being further increases. “We believe that the acquirement of a home is a social benefit of utmost importance and it is a citizen’s right to have easy access to the purchase of property,” said Christoforou. The fact that today prices have reached new heights and Cypriot citizens are finding it difficult to acquire their own homes, he added, is a matter that should preoccupy the state itself, which is obliged to offer this social benefit with reasonable prices. “Unfortunately, it is a clear observation that there is a problem where the increase in prices is concerned, resulting in the working and middle class Cypriot family finding it difficult to obtain it’s own home; something that was taken for granted in previous years,” Christoforou continued. In the meantime, he promised the Commerce Committee would continue to fight for the simplification of existing bureaucratic procedures, either at the Town-planning Department or other state departments, so that the public can have easy and rapid access to the relevant licensing for the construction of first homes. Head of the Town Planning Authority, Yiannos Papadopoulos told the committee that the increase in price and value of plots of land was down to the rise in demand. And this is not because there is not enough land in housing zones but it appears to be due to the non-availability of land in these zones. ”For this reason we have suggested the need for mechanisms that will activate land, which is unused within housing zones”, Papadopoulos explained. This, he said, would involve urban redistribution – which is already partly under way and under evaluation by the Attorney-general – and the activation of land with the preparation of traffic webs for various city areas. He also pointed out the need to examine the motives behind land-owners’ insistence on holding unused land. Referring to the chaos that has consumed the town planning department over the past two years, due to the increase in applications for town-planning permits, Papadopoulos said the department was already processing a new programme with the Interior Ministry, which by 2007 will give them the ability to issue licences within three months of application. Copyright © Cyprus Mail 2006 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest mattsta1964 Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Inflation is infinite, which is why the banks and governements love it, they control it alright. The whole problem lies with not having a true financial system that cant be manipulated, hence why the gold standard was abandoned in 1971. We are all being completely screwed and I can see housing becoming so expensive that it will be the 'have's' and the 'have nots', this is the sort of world we are now living in now, its very sad. Ive posted this before and some will think its lunacy, but each day it seems we are heading to a world where.... PRIVATELY OWNED HOMES — "A THING OF THE PAST" Privately owned housing would become a thing of the past. The cost of housing and financing housing would gradually be made so high that most people couldn't afford it. People who already owned their houses would be allowed to keep them but as years go by it would be more and more difficult for young people to buy a house. Young people would more and more become renters, particularly in apartments or condominiums. More and more unsold houses would stand vacant. People just couldn't buy them. But the cost of housing would not come down. Sound familiar ? The logical extension of your theory is that eventually, an individual will have to go into debt to buy a backet of biscuits. A sort of Ocean finance 'hobnob' loan! I think there will be civil unrest and a lot of bloodshed before thing s get that bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rain'ard Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Just having a rant-I am bored and pissed off with a HPC that refuses to happen, especially in London where I am. I was expecting one around 2003/4 for logical reasons that are familiar to many. Here we are a few years later and house inflation is still rising apparently. I would go and buy a new house but unfortunately I still (logically) expect a crash against all evidence and ,yes, media spin. :angry: Angry Scooter Paradoxically, only in a perfect world would I not expect a crash to come sooner or later, and now it is much later. There are so many imponderables in this world I think it would be safer to assume that there is definitely going to be a crash The only problem is it just ain’t gonna be yet. So keep renting and keep saving if your well off enough to do both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted October 4, 2006 Author Share Posted October 4, 2006 Paradoxically, only in a perfect world would I not expect a crash to come sooner or later, and now it is much later. There are so many imponderables in this world I think it would be safer to assume that there is definitely going to be a crash The only problem is it just ain’t gonna be yet. So keep renting and keep saving if your well off enough to do both. I will certainly keep waiting for a while. Luckily I am in my own place pretty much paid up but I am still pissed off because I want to move after twelve years in the same place. I realise others are in a more frustrating position. I do expect a crash as I said but my logic is being severely battered by the current persistence of HP inflation and, as I said, the media ********. S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PogoLocky Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 Looking at several oppinions over the last few weeks i myself dont think there will be a crash. I see all the bears on here getting more and more frustrated with different oppinions. I even bought the daily express to read about £56 increase in house prices a day i did tend to agree with some of the bear predictions when i first came here. I made up my mind i no longer call myself "NIETHER" i will settle for "BULL" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Badlad1967 Posted October 4, 2006 Share Posted October 4, 2006 You could've waited until after the MPC decision tomorrow... Still, you can always change it back again. This is a free site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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