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Irish H P I Slows For Third Month In A Row


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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinv...LAND-HOUSES.XML

Irish house price growth slows again in August

Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:15 PM BST170

Paddy O'Flannaghan

DUBLIN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The pace of house price growth in Ireland slowed for the third consecutive month in August, suggesting European Central Bank interest rate rises are having an impact on the market, a survey published on Friday showed.
The latest edition of the permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Index showed house prices rose by 1 percent last month, down from 1.1 percent in July and 1.2 percent the previous month..../
Along with rising energy costs, mortgage interest is one of the key drivers of accelerating inflation in Ireland -- now running at 4.5 percent versus a 2005 average of 2.5 percent.
The Central Bank of Ireland has repeatedly warned that a high dependence on the property sector, coupled with rising levels of household debt, pose significant economic risks.

All bad things must come to an end, even if they do so slowly at first. :)

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'Just shows that a HPC is possible even with ultra low IR?'

Its not the IR that counts, its the relative change in IRs.

In Ireland rates have increased by about 35% in relative terms.

Thats why changes in rates from low levels have such a large impact and a rise to 6% in the UK would wreck havoc.

Rates going from 10% to 15% equates to a relative increase of 50%.

That is, on an IO mortgage these figures would mean a 50% increase in your mortgage payments.

Rates going from 2% to 3% has exactly the same effect.

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinv...LAND-HOUSES.XML

Irish house price growth slows again in August

Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:15 PM BST170

Paddy O'Flannaghan

DUBLIN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The pace of house price growth in Ireland slowed for the third consecutive month in August, suggesting European Central Bank interest rate rises are having an impact on the market, a survey published on Friday showed.
The latest edition of the permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Index showed house prices rose by 1 percent last month, down from 1.1 percent in July and 1.2 percent the previous month..../
Along with rising energy costs, mortgage interest is one of the key drivers of accelerating inflation in Ireland -- now running at 4.5 percent versus a 2005 average of 2.5 percent.
The Central Bank of Ireland has repeatedly warned that a high dependence on the property sector, coupled with rising levels of household debt, pose significant economic risks.

All bad things must come to an end, even if they do so slowly at first. :)

I expected a crash in Ireland, and have been encouraging people back home (I'm from there originally) not to buy for some time. The technicals are much stronger for a HPC there than in the UK.

On the other hand, the figures you're quoteing seem to be more of an indication of a soft landing?

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I expected a crash in Ireland, and have been encouraging people back home (I'm from there originally) not to buy for some time. The technicals are much stronger for a HPC there than in the UK.

On the other hand, the figures you're quoteing seem to be more of an indication of a soft landing?

I believe 1 in 8 in Ireland is employed in the building industry so the slowdown will create a double whammy prices dropping and unemployment. Thus the Boom and Bust Cycle of the past. With the slowdown "Fear" sets in, the feelgood factor goes, spending drops, thus causing businesses to close thus creating more unemployment. Its amazing how history repeats itself. Give it a few years of "Fear" then "Greed" comes back in fashion and it starts all over again.

"So when the Spending stops, last one out switch the light off"

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'Just shows that a HPC is possible even with ultra low IR?'

Its not the IR that counts, its the relative change in IRs.

In Ireland rates have increased by about 35% in relative terms.

Thats why changes in rates from low levels have such a large impact and a rise to 6% in the UK would wreck havoc.

Rates going from 10% to 15% equates to a relative increase of 50%.

That is, on an IO mortgage these figures would mean a 50% increase in your mortgage payments.

Rates going from 2% to 3% has exactly the same effect.

sssshhhhh - don't say this you will shatter the fantasy of the muppets on here who think everything is all right because rates are not at 15%...

Edited by CrashDive
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Guest Shedfish

going to be a pedant and post some more, just in case this looks like a statistical anomoly. frothy? like a decaf cappucino

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********

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Bedrooms : 3

Advised Minimum Value (AMV): €700,000

Type : Site (i.e. a grubby bit of waste ground)

Bedrooms : 0

Asking Price: €1,250,000

Type : Semi-Detached House

Bedrooms : 3

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are you for real? 1% is a massive rise given the huge rises previously. When HPI slowed to 2% here there was widespread anticipation of price falls, yet when HPI neared zero it took off again. I have no faith in this sites predictions any more.

Edited by simon99
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are you for real? 1% is a massive rise given the huge rises previously. When HPI slowed to 2% here there was widespread anticipation of price falls, yet when HPI neared zero it took off again. I have no faith in this sites predictions any more.

That's good.

You shouldn't have faith in anyone's "predictions".

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http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinv...LAND-HOUSES.XML

Irish house price growth slows again in August

Fri Sep 29, 2006 2:15 PM BST170

Paddy O'Flannaghan

DUBLIN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The pace of house price growth in Ireland slowed for the third consecutive month in August, suggesting European Central Bank interest rate rises are having an impact on the market, a survey published on Friday showed.
The latest edition of the permanent tsb/ESRI House Price Index showed house prices rose by 1 percent last month, down from 1.1 percent in July and 1.2 percent the previous month..../
Along with rising energy costs, mortgage interest is one of the key drivers of accelerating inflation in Ireland -- now running at 4.5 percent versus a 2005 average of 2.5 percent.
The Central Bank of Ireland has repeatedly warned that a high dependence on the property sector, coupled with rising levels of household debt, pose significant economic risks.

All bad things must come to an end, even if they do so slowly at first. :)

RB, even by your (very low) standards it is spectacular spin to describe HPI of 1% a month as a HPC... :ph34r:

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RB, even by your (very low) standards it is spectacular spin to describe HPI of 1% a month as a HPC... :ph34r:

It's like I said--all bad things must eventually come to an end even if they do so slowly in the beginning. IMO, the crash will be a bit like watching the Titanic sink. At first the market slows to a stop. Then an eerie silence as nothing much happens but all the time the bulkheads (credit limits) are breaking and water (debt) is being taken on board at an ever-increasing rate. Then the ship starts to list a little but the band (VIs) keeps on playing trying to calm the passengers (sheeple). But without anything to pump the water out of the ship at a fast enough rate (productivity and non-inflationary wage hikes) the vessel is doomed. The rate of sinking picks and the passengers give up and panic. Many drown but a few who got off the ship in time were saved rom destruction.

At this point in the cycle, the ship is just about to stop and the damage is irreparable. Its time to get off the ship or sink with it.

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Guest wrongmove

It's like I said--all bad things must eventually come to an end even if they do so slowly in the beginning. IMO, the crash will be a bit like watching the Titanic sink. At first the market slows to a stop. Then an eerie silence as nothing much happens but all the time the bulkheads (credit limits) are breaking and water (debt) is being taken on board at an ever-increasing rate. Then the ship starts to list a little but the band (VIs) keeps on playing trying to calm the passengers (sheeple). But without anything to pump the water out of the ship at a fast enough rate (productivity and non-inflationary wage hikes) the vessel is doomed. The rate of sinking picks and the passengers give up and panic. Many drown but a few who got off the ship in time were saved rom destruction.

At this point in the cycle, the ship is just about to stop and the damage is irreparable. Its time to get off the ship or sink with it.

A few points - transactions and mortgage approvals in UK are both well ahead of trend at the moment. If a ship can only stop slowly, then we still have quite a wait on our hands.

In Ireland, the figures you posted show that HPI is still +1% a month, or +3.3% over the last quarter. This is massive growth in prices. According to Bubb, crash cruise speed is -0.5% a month, so they are currently at super boom cruise speed.

Currently, your metaphorical ship is still accelerating. The foot may be gently coming off of the gas, but it is nowhere near the brake yet.

I wish things were different, but ostrich tactics are not the way forward, IMHO. Go on. Be a man - look the facts in the face !

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A few points - transactions and mortgage approvals in UK are both well ahead of trend at the moment. If a ship can only stop slowly, then we still have quite a wait on our hands.

In Ireland, the figures you posted show that HPI is still +1% a month, or +3.3% over the last quarter. This is massive growth in prices. According to Bubb, crash cruise speed is -0.5% a month, so they are currently at super boom cruise speed.

Currently, your metaphorical ship is still accelerating. The foot may be gently coming off of the gas, but it is nowhere near the brake yet.

I wish things were different, but ostrich tactics are not the way forward, IMHO. Go on. Be a man - look the facts in the face !

All we know from the recent Haliwide data is that asking prices have apparently accelerated with regard to those properties that have been offered for sale. It could be post summer optimism or data tinkering to avoid a panic.

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Guest wrongmove

All we know from the recent Haliwide data is that asking prices have apparently accelerated with regard to those properties that have been offered for sale. It could be post summer optimism or data tinkering to avoid a panic.

Haliwide data is for sale prices at the point of mortgage approval.

Rightmove data is for asking prices.

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Thanks for posting those links Shedfish - absolutely incredible stuff.

10x a solicitor's salary buys you a crappy terraced house in Kimmage???? LMFAO. Yeah, ok, that makes sense. Jesus.

...

Back OT, I think I'm right in saying that there have been previous 3/4 month HPI slowdowns that have always ended-up turning around again. So not sure we can can with certainty that the latest figures are definitive proof of any kind of meaningful turnaround.

Still, 100,000 new units this year. Probably c.500,000 new units overall over the last 6 or 7 years - and probably no fewer than 50,000 new units pa for each if the next 5 years at least.

Population 4.25 million @ 2006 census.

Go figure.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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