mbga9pgf Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 FT Article How bloody handy for them. :angry: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 (edited) The ONS slashed its estimate of annual inflation in export prices from 3.8 to 0.6 per cent after it found it had introduced an error into the calculation. In lawyers terms, the error was di minimus or hardly worth referring to--just a few hundred percent off that's all Don't forget, the Miracle Man is running for high office and he must back up his bid for power with statistics that show he is in control of the economy. Don't be surprised to see the magic basket CPI to drop below 2% soon. But a mistake crept into the computer programs, which artificially suggested that exporters were finding it easy to raise their prices in world markets. A wandering finger perhaps? Edited September 28, 2006 by Realistbear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wrongmove Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 FT Article How bloody handy for them. :angry: Yes. This has completely displaced the hawkish news from Nationwide - look at the FX markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 that will explain the fall in cable then i've had it - i'm off abroad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbga9pgf Posted September 28, 2006 Author Share Posted September 28, 2006 that will explain the fall in cable then i've had it - i'm off abroad bttt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dpg50000 Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 This stinks to high heaven. It's exactly the kind of convenient excuse they need to keep this bubble market going at the present ir rate, when all odds looked like a rate rise either next month or November. How f***ing convenient. Also the article states "ONS officials explained they had been trying to eliminate a smaller problem related to VAT fraud from the national accounts." - given that they've been complaining for months about "carousel fraud" and the inability to correctly calculate VAT liabilities, how the hell can they be sure they're anywhere near correct in their new calculations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smell the Fear Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 This stinks to high heaven. It's exactly the kind of convenient excuse they need to keep this bubble market going at the present ir rate, when all odds looked like a rate rise either next month or November. How f***ing convenient. Also the article states "ONS officials explained they had been trying to eliminate a smaller problem related to VAT fraud from the national accounts." - given that they've been complaining for months about "carousel fraud" and the inability to correctly calculate VAT liabilities, how the hell can they be sure they're anywhere near correct in their new calculations. Indeed, how convenient. And practically ignored by the media. Anyone think this is the signal that the debt is simply going to be inflated away? It may be time to take out a large mortgage at a 10 year fixed rate...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 (edited) Like I've said in the past - they'll redefine inflation - and they are doing - stage 1 has begun.... Oh, boy - inflation is going to climb and climb - the BOE has no idea what's happening on the ground - they just want to keep a cap on things and hope it works out... Edited September 28, 2006 by dnd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossCat Posted September 28, 2006 Share Posted September 28, 2006 Like I've said in the past - they'll redefine inflation - and they are doing - stage 1 has begun.... I agree, people are kidding themselves if they think the government is going to sit quietly by while the econonomy crashes around them. They will manipulate whatever they can (and there's a lot they can do) to spin out this sham at least up until the next election. The only way they will get caught out is if the effects are taken out of their hands by events abroad. It may well be that they are delaying the inevitable and making the eventual problem greater, but since when did that bother politicians ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tenroom Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Like I've said in the past - they'll redefine inflation - and they are doing - stage 1 has begun.... Oh, boy - inflation is going to climb and climb - the BOE has no idea what's happening on the ground - they just want to keep a cap on things and hope it works out... Aw shucks, I guess the trained and experienced economists at the BoE, ONS etc should take their cues from the equally well trained and experienced armchair economists posting on this forum. Forget the MPC. Let's listen to the VIs on HPC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 You ain't seen nothing yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golden Shower Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Aw shucks, I guess the trained and experienced economists at the BoE, ONS etc should take their cues from the equally well trained and experienced armchair economists posting on this forum. Forget the MPC. Let's listen to the VIs on HPC. Come on, Merv only studied at MIT how can that compare to the life experience on HPC? And no one has a VI on HPC! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tenroom Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 And no one has a VI on HPC! How true . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 (edited) " But a mistake crept into the computer programs" What, like reality? Edited September 29, 2006 by BuyingBear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Aw shucks, I guess the trained and experienced economists at the BoE, ONS etc should take their cues from the equally well trained and experienced armchair economists posting on this forum. Forget the MPC. Let's listen to the VIs on HPC. It's a smoke and mirrors game - they are also very good marketing men IMO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Posters are putting much too much hope on IRs going up to 7% ish. They will be sorely disappointed. Maximum in this cycle will be 5.25% imo, and it will start to fall again in 2007. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Posters are putting much too much hope on IRs going up to 7% ish. They will be sorely disappointed. Maximum in this cycle will be 5.25% imo, and it will start to fall again in 2007. Damn, I have to agree with CO - they won't raise IR enough to crash the housing market - they still have ever rising inflation to deal with though The only other option is to continue to put pressure on peoples wages through increasing immigration and taxes to supress wages However, so long as the lenders are lending - inflation won't go down - people will unconsiously borrow to bridge the gap between rising prices and static wages Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the end is a bit nigher Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Aw shucks, I guess the trained and experienced economists at the BoE, ONS etc should take their cues from the equally well trained and experienced armchair economists posting on this forum. Forget the MPC. Let's listen to the VIs on HPC. you speak for yourself considering no-one, including the BoE believed the ONS before, I don't think this episode will have improved their credibility further, do you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuzzb3k Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Hang on a second, don't the BoE maintain their own calculation of inflation 'just in case'? If they do, then they won't have included the same error in their calculation. If they are basing their decisions on a combination of ONS and their own stats, then surely they would have noticed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon99 Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 (edited) Inflation figures were already a complete joke, now they're having a laugh. Edited September 29, 2006 by simon99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuyingBear Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 Inflation figures were already a complete joke, now they're having a laugh. The CPI is a joke, the GDP deflator marginally less so, that now amounts to the nearest honest official measure of inflation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dnd Posted September 29, 2006 Share Posted September 29, 2006 (edited) Damn, I have to agree with CO - they won't raise IR enough to crash the housing market - they still have ever rising inflation to deal with though The only other option is to continue to put pressure on peoples wages through increasing immigration and taxes to supress wages However, so long as the lenders are lending - inflation won't go down - people will unconsiously borrow to bridge the gap between rising prices and static wages "Middle classes feel the pinch as stealth taxes slash disposable income" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/arti...c=NEWS&ct=5 Ruth Lea of the centre-right think tank Centre for Policy Studies said: "This comes as no surprise. "Earnings have been going up by four per cent a year. But we know that in reality inflation is going up quicker." They are slowly trying to supress people's spending ability Problem is that that's not going to stop people unconsiously borrowing to pay subtly rising prices and taxes They are laughing at you... Edited September 29, 2006 by dnd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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