Just Look At This And Sit Back And Roar With Laughter

[Guest prudence]

when interest rates rose, northern rock put their rates down so i got a lower monthly payment now than if i got the mortgage before the rate rise!

Mine is £506 per month. Before the rise, N-Rock offered me 526 per month!!

as for terrorism dropping prices, not a chance mate. after 9/11 2001, prices than started booming.

it simply boils down to this. Houses are in short supply, demand is high, and people are prepared to pay the higher prices.

where do people who are prepared to pay those higher prices get the money from todo so? Their savings or a loan company. What happens when lenders impose a credit squeeze?.........

[Crashman Begins]

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

With lots of stuff on the news lately concerning the country: Job losses, bankruptancy,debt...

it just feels like somethings gonna happen sooner or later.

Edited September 28, 2006 by Crashman Begins

[Bug16]

It'll be interesting to see what happens.

With lots of stuff on the news lately concerning the country: Job losses, bankruptancy,debt...

it just feels like somethings gonna happen sooner or later.

It has to happen eventually. There is a point where the investment opportunities narrow into a single market and that isn't sustainable indefinitely.

[Sledgehead]

THIS IS ALL DELIBERATE by the VI's.

... and well known to insiders?

"His [Mandleson's] greedy eyes turned to Notting Hill where his friend, the millionaire writer Robert Harris, entertained so lavishly, and where the former SDP leader Sir Ian Wrigglesworth showed off all the fruits of political compromise. A lovely house next to Wrigglesworth’s was for sale, for a little matter of half a million quid. Poor Peter could not begin to raise that much.

In desperation Peter turned to the only really rich man he knew on the Labour backbenches, Robert Maxwell’s former business colleague and Labour MP for Coventry, Geoffrey Robinson. Robinson happily lent his new young friend £373,000, happily rolled up the interest and happily forgot to insist when, or even if, the loan should be repaid. Hey presto! As soon as Labour won the election, Robinson, an archetypal mediocrity, soared into the government with the grand title, which was not meant to be satirical, of Paymaster General."

House of cards, Paul Foot , Jan 1999

http://www.marxists.org/archive/foot-paul/1999/01/cards.htmv

... "interesting" source, but none the less ...

Edited September 28, 2006 by Sledgehead

[Smurf1976]

there will not be a crash. There will eventually be a "correction" and a drop in prices, but the big crash you guys dream about just will not happen.

The demand here is far too high.

In my city, houses are being sold within days of going on the market. Its a booming market in the west midlands. London is picking up pace also.

Just like the US and Sydney were during their booms. It hasn't stopped serious falls in either of those markets, so why would it in the UK? Odds are it won't.

[Dingleberry]

In my city, houses are being sold within days of going on the market. Its a booming market in the west midlands. London is picking up pace also.

Hint: English people don't say 'also' at the ends of their sentences. That's an American mannerism.

An English person would say 'too'.

Brought to you by the Bureau for Better Trolling.

[DabHand]

I would actually end with "..as well" but its a moot point. Just put the waste of a good chair on ignore.

[Pablo-silver or lead?]

Firstimebuyer

you state demand is high so there will not be a crash, I'll assume your'e an inexperianced, naive fool.

Before the last crash 1988 to 1995 (during which you could buy all properties from studios to 7 bed mansions for betwee 30% and 55% below their peak price) demand was even stronger than today. People were saying the same as you. Demand especially discretionary speculative demand can and will disappear. The US is dropping 30 to 40%, we are 6 to 8 months behind them. Since 2005 every time the UK's gone a little higher just means it's going to fall further. The US are going to see 2001 prices again are we?

Pablo Silver or Lead?

[john_coller]

Not so sure. Shortage of supply housing stock in the UK means we're more likely to see a slowdown as opposed to a US style crash.

That is such as poor argument.

It could be equally argued that the US can't have a house price bubble because there is no shortage of housing stock and an abundance of land for new properties.

[j.b.m.c.]

That is such as poor argument.

It could be equally argued that the US can't have a house price bubble because there is no shortage of housing stock and an abundance of land for new properties.

Lack of supply = higher prices. Not rocket science.

[Broken Fan]

Lack of supply = higher prices. Not rocket science.

Somethings missing here in this equation!

First person to work it out, gets to head Uk's next mission to pluto.

[Waitingforthesun]

First, I think Bears should treat Bulls' points of views with more respect; if there were only Bears on HPC, this website would be useless because there would be no debate. Moreover, Bears should admit that Bulls have been proved to be right so far by the unexpected strengh of the UK housing market.

Second, there is something you are maybe not realising: there is a very strong labour market in the UK. That's why so many "immigrants" are coming, because UK economy is creating jobs and there is a shortage of workers. In Poland, in France, there is high unemployment. Immigrants do not choose to go to UK - it's a nice country, but usually people prefer to stay in the contry where they were born, close to their family. So being in a country is a chance for all of you. In France, very few people would dare changing job or claim for a wage rise because it's so hard to find a job. In UK, I am astonish when I hear people saying "if I am feed up with my current job/my boss not raise my wage/give me more responsability, I"ll just change"

I would prefer economy, money and jobs to be more equaly wispread across Europe, but it is not the case (maybe in the long term, trends will equalise). I was thinking there would be a HPC in 2005-2006. But when I look for a new job in France, I was approached by a recruiting company working for the City: in few weeks, it could arrange me many interviews for many banks with very good salary - something you would never see in Paris. I told me: with such a booming economy, how could there be a crash ? There has been a slow down due do rate hikes in 2004 and fear due to 1992 memories, but then the market went up again.

I think UK need to build more housing. UK build only 200.000 housing units per year... it's ridiculous ! In France, we are building 400.000 and in Spain they build 800.000

Problem is that all UK economic system is based on HPI and there is an artificial shortage of building land.

I heard 90% of land in UK belong to the Lords... don't you think it's time to do your revolution ? (but please be less rude than Frenchmen, do not cut the head of your Queen, she is a nice lady)

[smiffy1967]

That last neck up is certainly a monster.

where i live in shropshire, i have seen houses on the market for months and months, now a lot of those sellers are also advertising to rent as well as sell, ever get the feeling people are in trouble and the market outside london is cooling rapidly?

[North London Rent Girl]

there will not be a crash. There will eventually be a "correction" and a drop in prices, but the big crash you guys dream about just will not happen.

The demand here is far too high.

In my city, houses are being sold within days of going on the market. Its a booming market in the west midlands. London is picking up pace also.

You guys are living in dream land, like i was not so long ago, but i;ve woken up.

which city is that? it isn't happening here.

[since the beginning]

why would i get burnt. a £500 a month mortgage i can afford even working part time. I have not only my own wages, but my partners, and if we were both to loose our jobs, i have enough saved up to last me about 6 months without having to work.

Get burnt on £500 a month? i think not. :-D

OK fair enough but doesn't really mean alot to anyone down south or even further up north like Manchester, Leeds etc You have got an 80,000 mortgage that potentially could go from £500 to say £750 with Interest Rate rises and wouldn't buy you even a 1 bed flat in these areas. Also you are doing well if with IR rises you could afford say £750 while working part-time. I mean you shouldn't really pay more than 40% of your income on a mortgage so this would mean you are earning £1700 for working part-time hours (say 20 hours) pretty good pay really.

[goldeneye977]

For anyone that says the UK and US housing markets don't follow each other.

Here's a US real house prices graph:

This is the UK one from the forum front page:

Here's a poor paintbox attempt to cut and stretch the US graph for the same period as the UK one:

The tracking/mirroring is self-evident to a child.

(Don't tell me - it's different this time. )

Note the spike in the graph from 1940-45. Prices almost doubled in that period but did not come down significantly from there. After that housing was mostly flat till this boom. I think there will be a fall but it won't be much and then housing will continue to languish for several years. In other words, people who bought homes around the year 2000-2002 in the US can thank their stars. They have made a decent profit and they got a home which they liked. Others who could/did not buy during this time - tough luck. It will be a considerable time before you will get your dream house. This is what happens in a "free market". Since the govt does not control anything, greed takes over and people who have loads of money become richer at the expense of the common man.

In Korea, after the 1997 meltdown, the govt made laws to discourage speculation in stocks and RE and the Korean RE has not had a bubble. In "free markets" like the US/UK, deep pockets always win. An ideal govt should intervene to prevent such bubbles from happening and help the little guy. But money, as always, rules .

[wagner]

reality check guys!!

This is the USA your talking about, not the UK.

The demand for housing has never been greater. Can;t you guys understand this simple point?

Demand is high.

Supply is low.

Prices therefore have no reason to go down.

Demand for housing in London was high in the early 90s, rental demand was very high especially in inner London this didn't stop London dropping like the rest of the UK, even Central and inner London. This was a time when we had a very high Irish migration working on the building sites. A recession bites at everyone in all pay structures. Supply and Demand works.

In London early 90s high rental demand low rental supply went in tune with high demand of sellers and low demand of buyers.

The argument for London would be then that property would have never gone down in London ever in history nor anywhere else as population has grown from day 1.

[eric pebble]

Demand for housing in London was high in the early 90s, rental demand was very high especially in inner London this didn't stop London dropping like the rest of the UK, even Central and inner London. This was a time when we had a very high Irish migration working on the building sites. A recession bites at everyone in all pay structures. Supply and Demand works.

In London early 90s high rental demand low rental supply went in tune with high demand of sellers and low demand of buyers.

The argument for London would be then that property would have never gone down in London ever in history nor anywhere else as population has grown from day 1.

Blimey -- that's difficult to follow!

[Chomp]

I'm as bitter and unpleasant a thwarted FTB as the next man (I would sell my mother to Albanian people trafficers in return for a cool apartment) but even I had a tinge of sympathy looking at this site:

http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/

Ok, lots of these people are probably unpleasant wannabee ballers getting due cumuppance for their arrogance and hubris.

But there's also bound to be a whole bunch of perfectly decent, ordinary people who were simply looking to make a few quid for themselves and ended up, well, screwed.

It's a cruel world.

[Guest X-QUORK]

Why waste sympathy on people who believed they could make an easy buck out of property only to get burned?

Screw the lot of them I say, I'll save my sympathy for Darfur.

[Caledonian-Emigre]

well call me a troll if you like. But i have a house now, do you guys? No, you prefer to sit their feelin sorry for yourselves waiting for something that will not happen.

Look at the economy, its not going to crumble, its strong. Prices are high and people are prepared to pay them.

I dont know about house prices - but the economy is so cocked up, down and around that some really big problems are on the way to haunt the UK

[A Fool & His Borrowed Money]

Why waste sympathy on people who believed they could make an easy buck out of property only to get burned?

Screw the lot of them I say, I'll save my sympathy for Darfur.

I agree wholeheartedly on the last sentance.

[eric pebble]

I agree wholeheartedly on the last sentance.

where is he now?