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House Price Crash Forum

£ Goes Down Or Ir's Go Up


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Seems to me that many people on both sides of the argument here base there comments purely on interest rates. Even if base rates hit zero (as in Japan) then houses could not have continue to rise at 20% and by the same token, history shows that often in the past, prices have continued to rise/fail in the same direction as interest rates for short periods of time.

People must remember why IR are at historically low rates, it’s not because we are/were doing well , quite the opposite, it’s due to the global economy declining and that started prior to the events of 09/11

My guess is the US$ is going to drag the £ down and this will play into the hands of the government who want to devalue the pound in readiness for joining the Euro, add to this that the election is due soon plus the fact that house prices have hit the enviable wall, then I would not be all surprised if IR come down .25% this side of the next election.

Just think the foreign purchasing power of the Americans has suddenly dropped 50% and yet the powers at B are telling the public how good it is for them all as it keeps them all in jobs. MY GOD BMW’s are going up so I better one now is the mentality that has driven the housing market so far, not that any of us are earning more or paying less tax.

Correct me if I’m wrong but does not devaluation lead to inflation and does not inflation lead to higher interest rates (over the long term), keeping rates low is in many ways the same as spending today and paying later and this all comes at a time when it already looking like the government has been cooking the books over the official inflation rate.

Apparently, or so I’m told we are under paying 18p in the £ on income tax for current pension provisions, and the current deficit come in at a mere 3p in the £pound so this must be what they mean by tax harmonization. US$ has already devalued 50%, we only need to devalue 40% to hit £1=1Euro, this must be what they mean by currency convergence. Now we are starting to seeing, “get a fixed rate now deal†? did I forget to mention that a higher proportion of foreign mortgages are on fixed rates deals

After the consequences of the pending housing crash with unemployment and all that, we will all be begging to join the euro and that’s the grand master plan for winning a referendum on full membership, good old stick and carrot always wins.

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There are so many holes in your logic that I'm shocked you posted this.

For example, 'currency convergence' does not mean £1 = 1 Euro.

To make it very simple to understand, take the Swedish Krona as an example. The krona now trades at approx 9kr to 1 Euro. Despite also looking for 'currency convergence' prior to their recent referendum on joining the Euro, they certainly didn't want 1kr = 1 Euro as their benchmark.

Currency convergence relates to the relative value of a currency. What you can buy for the currency in each country. For example, if you travel to Europe and feel that your strong pound makes things in Europe cost half of what they cost at home, your pound is too strong. When you feel your pound buys you approx. the same goods overseas (Europe in this case) then your currency has probably converged, no matter what the exchange rate reads as.

That is as simply as I can put it.

There are many more holes in your post, but I'll leave it to other more generous souls than I.

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There are many more holes in your post, but I'll leave it to other more generous souls than I.

I agree TTRTR, he, like all the others are just clutching at whatever straws they can find.

Repeat after me

THERE IS NO CRASH

Stop looking at falling asking prices and start looking at sale prices - they are the same as they have always been.

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There are so many holes in your logic that I'm shocked you posted this.

For example, 'currency convergence' does not mean £1 = 1 Euro.

To make it very simple to understand, take the Swedish Krona as an example. The krona now trades at approx 9kr to 1 Euro. Despite also looking for 'currency convergence' prior to their recent referendum on joining the Euro, they certainly didn't want 1kr = 1 Euro as their benchmark.

Currency convergence relates to the relative value of a currency. What you can buy for the currency in each country. For example, if you travel to Europe and feel that your strong pound makes things in Europe cost half of what they cost at home, your pound is too strong. When you feel your pound buys you approx. the same goods overseas (Europe in this case) then your currency has probably converged, no matter what the exchange rate reads as.

That is as simply as I can put it.

There are many more holes in your post, but I'll leave it to other more generous souls than I.

I don't think the currency convergence point was meant seriously. Mind you if you looked at a basket of prices in say rural Portgual by comparison to those in Yorkshire you might find that the pound would converge some way below £1 to 1 Euro.

CF.

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I have posted before that the economic tests only really boil down to 2 tests: coping with shocks and cyclical covergence. We meet the other 3 tests.

A lot of what the media are reporting about Brown being totally anti-Euro is incorrect.

He has stated his position on the Euro. He has introduced the HCPI measure for this purpose.

The 'ability to cope with shocks' is a bargaining chip and can be disregarded as the stability pact limits are becoming more 'flexible'.

He is looking to join, the only BAR being : CONVERGENCE.

What is convergence? This really means the same inflation pattern (and IR) as the E12 over the cycle. How is this achieved?

(1) Same structural supply side (supply of output) economics as Euroland.

- Public sector : becoming bloated to the same degree as Eurolands.

- Public sector future liabilties - index linked - piling up.

- Government representing over 45% of GDP. (And having to resort to Enron style accounting trickery to get that figure - messing with liabilities (PPP) to pretend they dont exist on the government balance sheet)

- Increasing pointless regulations and growing red tape.

- Dropping competiveness on any real measure.

Within 2 years of another Labour term we should have similar inflation using the HCPI measure due to the UKs structural Supply-side of the economy having converged with the structure of the Eurozone.

We are converging....we will join in another Labour term.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
Within 2 years of another Labour term we should have similar inflation using the HCPI measure due to the UKs structural economy having converged. We are converging....

If the referendum goes against signing up for the new constitution, you can forget joining the euro. Economic factors will not come into it. :D

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If the referendum goes against signing up for the new constitution, you can forget joining the euro. Economic factors will not come into it.  :D

There is at present a broad majority against it, but that may change if there is a crisis or some other oppertunity to make massive changes. (Like ID Cards/people register were moved from the back burner (>15 years away if that) and where pushed to people for 2006 as a 'solution' under a climate of fear).

The ingredients are all in place. We only have the convergence test - thats based on inflation and thuis supply side structures.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp
There is at present a broad majority against it, but that may change if there is a crisis or some other opportunity to make massive changes. (Like ID Cards/people register were moved from the back burner (>15 years away if that) and where pushed to people for 2006 as a 'solution' under a climate of fear).

The ingredients are all in place. We only have the convergence test - thats based on inflation and thuis supply side structures.

BTW have followed all your posts with great interest.

I would like to bet that the silent majority ( those that the politicians ignore ) will have no objection to ID cards, especially amongst my generation. Europe is heading for political and economic crisis as more and more poorer countries join. They see it as a giant benefits system where they will get more than they pay in, and our electorate know it.

Europe does itself no favours when you see the massive corruption going on and the Commissioners doing nothing positive to stop it. The local elections this year was the first warning to the Government that we were not happy with Europe. Remember Blair said no referendum and quickly did a U turn when he realised that the electorate through opinion polls were demanding one.

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The ingredients are all in place. We only have the convergence test - thats based on inflation and thuis supply side structures.

And what better way to hide a crash than to muddle everyones heads and jumble everyones money and their understanding of what things cost, by changing the currency. Good way to letting a little bit of inflation go unnoticed as well.

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Stop looking at falling asking prices and start looking at sale prices - they are the same as they have always been.

Tee-hee.

Some flats near me had an asking price of 250k.

They now have an asking price of £215k

What does this mean? Has the price fallen? If you went in and waved 195k at the developer would he take it?

They have been finished for 9 months and only two sold.

When you say look at sale prices - they are the same as they have always been - do you mean prices have not gone up over the last 5 years?

How many individual houses have been bought and sold again in the last year. Surely only this sort of data would tell you if prices have fallen.

In my local property paper lots of properties are advertised as 'reduced'? Reduced from what? From an arbitrary asking price. So asking prices are coming down. How does this affect sale prices? Are people ignoring asking prices and offering above the asking price to make sure the sale price is the same as it always was.

The other data that tells you the state of the market is the price of properties on Housing Estates where a number of the houses are identical. Round here the asking price particularly of 3 to 4 bed detached houses on estates has fallen about 10 to 15% over the last year and a half. We are well into a price correction in London and the South East. You can rant about asking prices and sale prices as much as you like - if you stopped anyone in the street round here and said 'if you put your property on the market today do you think you would get as much for it as if you had put it on a year ago - you would be hard pressed to find anyone to say 'Yes'.

One Estate Agent in my local town does have a new notice in the window though:

"Please Note: these prices are Asking Prices - anyone making an offer on one of these properties will be expected to pay the full sale price i.e. the same as it's always been. We will, under no circumstances, countenance offers below the correct sale price."

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BTW have followed all your posts with great interest.

I would like to bet that the silent majority ( those that the politicians ignore ) will have no objection to ID cards, especially amongst my generation. Europe is heading for  political and economic crisis as more and more poorer countries join. They see it as a giant benefits system where they will get more than they pay in, and our electorate know it.

Europe does itself no favours when you see the massive corruption going on and the Commissioners doing nothing positive to stop it. The local elections this year was the first warning to the Government that we were not happy with Europe. Remember Blair said no referendum and quickly did a U turn when he realised that the electorate through opinion polls were demanding one.

Eastern Europeans,Turks etc - They have a right to work and a right to claim tax credits, housing benifit, dole here in the UK. Thats policy!

The new police state and the whole UK population being scanned and tagged with a people tracking database and forced to cough up £85 or a £2500 fine would not make any difference. The pollsters and focus groups rule the roost.

You only hear silence on the issue because there is just no commons opposition or debate in parlement - as the Tories - a party which supposedly, laughably, is liberterian, standing squarely for the individual; say they have a 'wait and see attitude' to the people tracking database and the irreversable infrastructure of state-centralised control created. (while they consult thier pollsters no doubt.)

What we need is a opposition who has principles, which people thought they might get with howard - and who will stand up for them right or wrong in the face of the pollsters.

Neil Kinnock, the hypocrite who vowed that he would never ever accept a peerage, now takes up his titles and Lordship. The corruption never stops.

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If you need any confirmation of the arrogance and contempt for the feelings of ordinary people that characterises the European Union, look no further than the recent career of Neil Kinnock.

The failed Labour leader was parachuted into a cushy and lucrative sinecure with the European Commission nine years ago after imperiously assuming the 1992 general election was in the bag before crashing to defeat in spectacular fashion.

In 1999, in an unprecedented move, the entire Commission was sacked in a scandal over nepotism, cronyism and corruption on an eye-watering scale.

But laughably Kinnock was re-hired as ‘sleaze-buster in chief’ with a brief to reform the EU’s chaotic accounting system.

True to form Kinnock did absolutely nothing to stem the tide of corruption - in fact fraud doubled to an estimated £700m in 2002 (estimated because no one knows the real value of the widespread theft) - but he did distinguish himself by doing his utmost to gag the brave officials who tried to blow the whistle on the crooks.

For example when chief accountant Marta Andreasen warned Kinnock and the rest of the Commission that the £63bn EU budget was “an open till waiting to be robbed†she was ignored and told to shut up.

When in desperation she took her complaints to Euro MPs in 2002, Kinnock suspended her for breaching “hierarchy linesâ€.

Even after an internal audit found Mrs Andreasen’s allegations to be “factually and substantially correct†Kinnock refused to reinstate her.

Last week, in a final act of vindictive bullying before he leaves the Commission, Kinnock sacked Mrs Andreasen - by email - for failing a “duty of loyaltyâ€.

Being sacked by the EU is virtually unknown. Even officials implicated in a £3 million slush fund scandal described as a “vast enterprise of looting†are still on full pay two years later.

But an exception is made for whistleblowers such as Mrs Andreasen. Her real mistake was to believe her “duty of loyalty†was owed to ordinary European taxpayers, and not to those intent on stealing their money.

Not that Kinnock has much reason to worry. He retires next week with £270,000 ‘transitional payments’ for three years before his £63,900 a year pension kicks in.

Mrs Andreasen, meanwhile, was sacked without compensation and won’t receive a bean.

But perhaps Kinnock has carried out at least one service to democracy during his shameful career as a Eurocrat.

By his actions he has shown that the European Union is not only beyond parody, but utterly beyond reform too.

http://www.20six.co.uk/BillCarmichael/arch...s6ojnopt5o7.htm

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

My sentiments entirely brainclamp. As I stated in another thread, as empires have fallen, so will the EE and it`s corrupt officials. Just look at the new Eastern European Nations, where the police and officials openly accept bribes, and now the bank has opened the doors and vaults for them. No wonder the Ukraine wants to join Nato and the Union, as a part of the ex Soviet bloc they have degrees in corruption.

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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