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there will be a spring pickup as usual - in VOLUMES.

What will this mean for prices?

It will mean they will FALL FASTER.

Why?

Refer to my first sentence.

For those that don't get it (BBB):

the only thing holding prices from falling faster at the moment is that sellers are still holding out - when it gets to the Spring (when everyone likes to move) a lot will have to sell (to move to where they want to move).

This will oil the wheels - and allow more transactions to occur and allow prices to fall quicker.

:ph34r:

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there will be a spring pickup as usual - in VOLUMES.

What will this mean for prices?

It will mean they will FALL FASTER.

Why?

Refer to my first sentence.

I suspect the same... there probably will be a lot of property for sale in spring.. and was a reference (can't remember where.. the times?.. if I find a ref.... or anyone has post it please) saying estate agents were trying to get people selling straight after xmas.. I wonder why?

On its own "a lot of property for sale" is not the end.. it really depends on buyers.. if they see the prices falling and they don't have to move.. prices could really drop... and sellers... how quickley they have to sell.

In my mind (as a worst case as a FTB) I expect a final small bounce in the spring... and things to really start falling when summer holidays start. Best case is things continue to fall...

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And with prices softening in October, November, December and Jan, the benchmark price for XYZ house will be lower.

Sure you will get agents who will tell punters what they want to hear, but you will also get agents who say it like it is.

IE: "Mr vendor, the last house we sold like yours went for £150,000 just before Christmas - yours is worth the same, regardless if they were selling for £170,000 last summer"

Eventually these drops will start to show up in the indexes and the snowball will gain momentum, and there will be no way that anyone will be able to dispute falling prices.

The rest, as they say, is history.

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Got a friend who's house has been on the market for 5 months now. Not asking a stupid price IMHO, but hasn't shifted yet.

3 price reductions so far.

Now £40K lower than he was first asking, still no viewings.

He is not doing anything right now to shift it as "houses never sell around christmas", and he is hoping for a spring bounce....

He is looking whiter and more stressed by the day. I think he is clever enough to know the market has turned, but prefers to bury his head.

Every time we discuss it and I give hi my honest opinion he seems to turn a couple of shades more pale :)

His only saving grace is that he probably has £100K equity in the house, but needs ot shift it quickly as he now lives 200 miles away and its costing him £1000 a month for mortgage, insurance and some loan payments.... :ph34r:

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hmmm

I think people will start selling (or at least trying to!) straight after christmas - and this will be reflected in the house price stats which will induce more sales etc etc etc. Don't know about waiting until spring.... when's that? April?

Some posters on here have stated that we have seen the end of denial but I rather think Christmas has got in the way. After all house prices can't drop if nobody is selling. The new year will see the true end of denial for the public.

Such stories of complete bewilderment as to why their house won't sell are amusing but my personal favourite are the recrimiations against FTBs who are selfishly trying to induce a crash by refusing to buy. :D

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my personal favourite are the recrimiations against FTBs who are selfishly trying to induce a crash by refusing to buy.

Or is it more selfish to want an FTB to mortgage their life away so that you, the vendor, become a millionaire for doing absolutely ****** all?

Damn those FTBs, why WON'T they mortgage themselves so that they are drowing in debt for a two-bed shoebox in Wapping so that I can retire to my yacht in the Bahamas?????????????????? DAMN THEIR HIDES!

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Got a friend who's house has been on the market for 5 months now. Not asking a stupid price IMHO, but hasn't shifted yet.

3 price reductions so far.

Now £40K lower than he was first asking, still no viewings.

He is not doing anything right now to shift it as "houses never sell around christmas", and he is hoping for a spring bounce....

He is looking whiter and more stressed by the day. I think he is clever enough to know the market has turned, but prefers to bury his head.

Every time we discuss it and I give hi my honest opinion he seems to turn a couple of shades more pale  :)

His only saving grace is that he probably has £100K equity in the house, but needs ot shift it quickly as he now lives 200 miles away and its costing him £1000 a month for mortgage, insurance and some loan payments....  :ph34r:

I've seen evidence of this. A neighbour reduced his 2-bed flat over the last 4 months or so from £270K to £225K and has now taken it off the market until the the new year/spring hoping things will be better. I think he's in for a shock! It doesn't take many more properties coming onto the market to really shift the supply/demand balance. That balance is already in favour of the buyer so the extra properties coming on in the spring will surely suppress prices even further and even quicker. Bring it on!!

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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