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Big_Bad_Bear

Nothing's Changed Then?

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I left this forum a good while back as I got tired of the focus on miro economics and bulls and bears siezing on every piece of news to prove their point. Now, I'm firmly in the bear camp but figured it would take a while for the market to stutter and finally turn. We are not talking weeks here. We are talking probably 2008 before we get any serious downside.

I read with a wry smile the same bull comments I read at the end of dot com. I too had ridden dot com all the way up and yes, maybe I turned bear a little too early but in the end, we made stacks on the way down too. The perma bulls lost it all.

I see now that as the market is going to keep rising that the silly buyers consider themselves as the 'smart' ones. Why? Because their point has been proved. The market is still rising.

Maybe, but what will they do now? Keep buying? Really? Are they going to keep pouring OPM into an over-valued asset? Will they do that or will they consolidate their risk and look elswhere? I fear the former. That's just bad investment.

In my opinion, we are now at the top of this market. Time will tell but I sold my house in 2003 for £195k (paid £71k in 2000) and it's just sold again for £202k. Hmmm. Would have done better in a savings account. Did I miss the top? Probably by a few grand but I got near.

The problem is that the longer this bubble lasts, the harder will be the fall. It's inevitable really. the correction will, as always, be as strong as the boom.

We have built an economy on debt. Itwill only last so long before it all goes boom and I see real signs now. Retail is looking a bit poorly and credit is tightening.

Get ready for a grim 2007 before all hell breaks loose.

Edited by Big_Bad_Bear

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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