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hedi

Dont Panic, Hold Firm

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one factor that is common to all bubbles and busts is panic buying at the end, and that is what has been happening and is happening in london right now. lots of pundits predicted that prices would fall 2005/2004 but they did not. so they won't, so lets buy before its too late. this is just what happened in the dot com boom.

so dont panic and think it will never happen, the last piece of the jigsaw is falling into place right now.

for a crash it is necessary that the vast majority think that it can't happen. i think it is one of the pre requisists for a crash.

it wont be interest rates, it wasnt in japan. it will be the shear weight of debt. and that is already completely out of controal.

.

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one factor that is common to all bubbles and busts is panic buying at the end, and that is what has been happening and is happening in london right now. lots of pundits predicted that prices would fall 2005/2004 but they did not. so they won't, so lets buy before its too late. this is just what happened in the dot com boom.

so dont panic and think it will never happen, the last piece of the jigsaw is falling into place right now.

for a crash it is necessary that the vast majority think that it can't happen. i think it is one of the pre requisists for a crash.

it wont be interest rates, it wasnt in japan. it will be the shear weight of debt. and that is already completely out of controal.

.

Thank god for that. Now that an expert like you has confirmed the above, we can all rest easy :lol::lol:

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so dont panic and think it will never happen, the last piece of the jigsaw is falling into place right now.

.

The sad thing is that I have been reading this kind of thing for the last X years on this website.

It seems now that there is a flurry of bears posting, desperately hoping for the bubble to burst under its own weight. Unfortunately, there are too many stupid people out there who the banks will lend money to. As a consequence, this bubble just is not bursting.

You know, it's entirely possible for this bubble to carry on and, then rest, then to carry on.... and never deflate.

Whilst this kind of opinion is usually meant with smug derision, the fact is that the same smug-derision has been going on for the last 2 years, with no bubble bursting.

I say to people, if you want/need to buy and can afford the house, with a bit of leeway, then get on with your life and buy. That's what I did, and although I feel like a fool for believing the hype on this website over the last years... I was never really in a position that I needed to move, until now. Hence the housepricecrash mentality didn't affect my actions.

This bubble has plenty of life left in it. There are plenty of sheeple who are out there that will be more than happy to overstretch themselves.

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for a crash it is necessary that the vast majority think that it can't happen. i think it is one of the pre requisists for a crash

.

Ah, another one for the "HPC cliches" thread

Unfortunately, there are too many stupid people out there who the banks will lend money to.

You know, it's entirely possible for this bubble to carry on and, then rest, then to carry on.... and never deflate.

Which will mean they wont be the stupid ones at all.

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The sad thing is that I have been reading this kind of thing for the last X years on this website.

It seems now that there is a flurry of bears posting, desperately hoping for the bubble to burst under its own weight. Unfortunately, there are too many stupid people out there who the banks will lend money to. As a consequence, this bubble just is not bursting.

You know, it's entirely possible for this bubble to carry on and, then rest, then to carry on.... and never deflate.

Whilst this kind of opinion is usually meant with smug derision, the fact is that the same smug-derision has been going on for the last 2 years, with no bubble bursting.

I say to people, if you want/need to buy and can afford the house, with a bit of leeway, then get on with your life and buy. That's what I did, and although I feel like a fool for believing the hype on this website over the last years... I was never really in a position that I needed to move, until now. Hence the housepricecrash mentality didn't affect my actions.

This bubble has plenty of life left in it. There are plenty of sheeple who are out there that will be more than happy to overstretch themselves.

Does that mean you're joining the rest of us? People like me who have a housing need that can't be satisfied by renting? The great unwashed/morons/idiots/fools/sheeple and all the other names us homebuyers are called? Welcome aboard, hope you can afford it!

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Does that mean you're joining the rest of us? People like me who have a housing need that can't be satisfied by renting? The great unwashed/morons/idiots/fools/sheeple and all the other names us homebuyers are called? Welcome aboard, hope you can afford it!

Muppets. Don't forget we're muppets.

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The HSBC 4 friends can buy together mortgage must be the last straw. I know no one who would even consider that due to the potential problems you would have.

The banks are running out of ideas to push more and more debt. It will pop eventually, but if people think ideas like that are a good idea then this bubble can go much higher.

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The HSBC 4 friends can buy together mortgage must be the last straw. I know no one who would even consider that due to the potential problems you would have.

The banks are running out of ideas to push more and more debt. It will pop eventually, but if people think ideas like that are a good idea then this bubble can go much higher.

I don't think it will go much higher. But that doesn't mean prices will fall

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Does that mean you're joining the rest of us? People like me who have a housing need that can't be satisfied by renting? The great unwashed/morons/idiots/fools/sheeple and all the other names us homebuyers are called? Welcome aboard, hope you can afford it!

Like I said in my post "if you want/need to buy and can afford the house, with a bit of leeway"

It's what I have done, and have also been very fortunate (Thank God) to have found something that needs a bit of work, and thus sold to me at 30% less than others on the same street.

There still exist opportunities like that. In such a case, I say.. just get on with life.

I certainly would not condone getting a mortgage that stretches oneself, with a risk incase of higher interest rates etc.

The distinction that I am making is between buying a house because you want/need to move, and can afford it..... and the alternative, as suggested by meany bears here, which is to sit on your cash, and wait for a 30% drop. I just don't think that it's very likely to happen anymore.

Ironically, this site is proving that it is different this time... The graph on the frontpage is showing that we are in uncharted waters.

:o

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Guest grumpy-old-man

one factor that is common to all bubbles and busts is panic buying at the end, and that is what has been happening and is happening in london right now. lots of pundits predicted that prices would fall 2005/2004 but they did not. so they won't, so lets buy before its too late. this is just what happened in the dot com boom.

so dont panic and think it will never happen, the last piece of the jigsaw is falling into place right now.

for a crash it is necessary that the vast majority think that it can't happen. i think it is one of the pre requisists for a crash.

it wont be interest rates, it wasnt in japan. it will be the shear weight of debt. and that is already completely out of controal.

.

Heidi, I think your spot-on with your comments.

& when it goes mainstream, we won't need to comment on here half as much, you will see......till the next one of course, then it all starts again & we (well me personally) will have been through 2 hpc's ;)

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Isn't the aim of most people, FTBers especially, to find a place they like and can afford to pay for?! That's all I want.

I'm not sitting round waiting for a huge crash or financial armageddon. I'm desperatley trying to figure out a way of affording to buy a home for myself.

I am fortunate in some respects as I work for myself so earning more is in my own hands. Unfortunatley I still have to operate outside the economy of the house where competition is fierce, prices are competitive and opportunities to earn big bucks are few and far between

Flicking through the Telegraph job section at the weekend I was surprised at the salaries on offer for some pretty senior/ highly skilled jobs. None were anywhere near the wage bracket you would need for a decent home- based on what I saw even a senior manager in a high tech industry wouldn't be able to buy in my area.

This is the $hit scary part of housing in 2006- just what chances do the average skilled workers have of buying somewhere to live?

I don't want to work hard and give 110% effort just to end up paying some BTLers mortgage. Where is the return for my hard work? Do I not deserve to own my own house or am I some kind of cash cow to be milked for others benefit? If people didn't greedily hoard houses but bought and sold them like we used to do in this country then maybe things would be different. Renting is something I have done and I don't want to do it again. Being master of your own home is something a lot of people take for granted and would not consider letting go of- why people who just happened to miss the boom are supposed to settle for renting forever whilst others who were a few years ahead want it all is beyond me. Having to raise a family in someone elses home isn't something I want to do.

I have no animosity to people who bought before the market rocketed but I think some of these people who do own property and are hell bent on moving up the ladder whist buying up the bottom rungs are short sighted and are creating misery for others. If everyone in the past had taken the same attitude todays home owners would be in the same boat as I and a lot of other are in now. If you want a new house selling the old one allows someone else to have a crack of the same whip you had the benefit of and reduces your debt. Since it's become fashionable to keep every scrap of property between clenched, White knuckles life for FTB'ers and other has become rather depressing and hopeless.

If you try to grab all the toys in the box and stop anyone else from playing you will naturally be unpopular. Buy to let landlords are filling a demand which they themselves have manufactured- you can't really expect the victims to be grateful.

Edited by sun n sea

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UK house prices do seem very high and it is tempting to call it a bubble, but when you consider things more closely is it really?

1. House prices in the mid 90's were undervalued because of the turbulance in the preceeding years, giving an artificially low starting base.

2. We enjoy much greater macroeconomic stability meaning interest rates can be kept relatively low and steady rather than wildly swinging up and down.

3. Low unemployment

4. Women participting more fully in the labour market than they did even 20 years ago, the average family now has two salaries coming in not one.

5. Less risk averse attitude to lending by the banks

6. Inadequate supply in at least parts of the country caused by a lack of political will to build ourselves out of high house prices.

Just some thoughts on how prices might be explained as rational, i'm certainly not going to make a bold prediction either way!

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Muppets. Don't forget we're muppets.

Yes muppets buy buy buy you will never regret it, never go through hard times, never be anxious and always be happy witht the thought - your house prices are rising in value.

If I was you I would buy, especially when I could rent a house the same price as an IO mortgage and watch the capital appreciation in my town standstill or decline or hardly rise. It would be avery good reason to buy right now so step into the market. I dare you.

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Yes muppets buy buy buy you will never regret it, never go through hard times, never be anxious and always be happy witht the thought - your house prices are rising in value.

If I was you I would buy, especially when I could rent a house the same price as an IO mortgage and watch the capital appreciation in my town standstill or decline or hardly rise. It would be avery good reason to buy right now so step into the market. I dare you.

Firstly is it decline, standstill or hardly rise? Can't be all three. Secondly where we have chosen to live there no rental properties available so i accept your dare and double dare you!

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Yes muppets buy buy buy you will never regret it, never go through hard times, never be anxious and always be happy witht the thought - your house prices are rising in value.

If I was you I would buy, especially when I could rent a house the same price as an IO mortgage and watch the capital appreciation in my town standstill or decline or hardly rise. It would be avery good reason to buy right now so step into the market. I dare you.

Believe it or not, someone said something very similar to me in 1977.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Believe it or not, someone said something very similar to me in 1977.

You missed the boat there CO. If you had bought in 1976 HPI was minus 13% in real terms. By 1977 HPI was rising at 4% per annum during Callaghan`s term. :)

When you look at inflation during his period of office that does not look very exciting.

1979 13.4%

1978 8.3%

1977 15.8%

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You missed the boat there CO. If you had bought in 1976 HPI was minus 13% in real terms. By 1977 HPI was rising at 4% per annum during Callaghan`s term. :)

No, Charlie. I bought my first house in late 75, early 76. But it was when I traded up in 1977, taking out an enormous 14k mortgage, that I was called crazy by older colleagues!

That obviously confirms that your ARE a muppett if 30 years later I am also saying it to you.

Yeah - I wish I hadn't bought that 16k house in 1977! I'd be quids in :ph34r:

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Firstly is it decline, standstill or hardly rise? Can't be all three. Secondly where we have chosen to live there no rental properties available so i accept your dare and double dare you!

decline, standstill, hardly rise is a broad sense of UK prices right now, my area is falling slightly and hasn't risen for over 2 years.

Go and buy then don't listen to anyone here you obviously made your mind up. What are you looking for here? someone to agree with you or share your view or tell you it's wrong or right? Only you can answer that. This site was set up for people to discuss a HPC not a HPP (HousePricePurchase). Maybe you will get better partial advice from singing pig or C4 forum they will rejoice in your decision. Now go ahead lemming commit yourself there is a nice big cliff waiting for you to fall off.

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

No, Charlie. I bought my first house in late 75, early 76. But it was when I traded up in 1977, taking out an enormous 14k mortgage, that I was called crazy by older colleagues!

Yeah - I wish I hadn't bought that 16k house in 1977! I'd be quids in :ph34r:

My apologies, same as myself, the best time to buy. I could not believe how negative my friends were at the time as we still had the illusion of jobs for life. :)

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My apologies, same as myself, the best time to buy. I could not believe how negative my friends were at the time as we still had the illusion of jobs for life. :)

There was 1 guy in my office who took out a 25k mortgage, which was pretty enormous back then. I have to say that I thought he was bonkers. He still lives in the same house in Hutton Mount, probably worth about 1.5million now!

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

He still lives in the same house in Hutton Mount, probably worth about 1.5million now!

He must now be a member of the vetting committee. :rolleyes:

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With all due respect the 70's weren't like this.

You wouldn't have got x8 mortgage multiples. The kind of $hit FTBer housing being offered for way over the odds money now would have been worth proportionally a fraction of what it's supposedly "worth" now. Plus you didn't have to compete with the older guys in your office frantically MEWing up the type of house you wanted to buy.

My parents bought back in the 70's too- 4 grand for a brand new bungalow for us kids. Talking to my dad he does say it was a big ask on his salary- that's a given, we all know buying a house is a big commitment and takes sacrifice.

No one is expecting to buy a house for peanuts- at least not me. What I am expecting is a bloody reality check and some affordability.

Jumping in as a FTBer at this moment in time is hugely more risky than back in the 70's or 80's- the cost of bottom end housing is high and any correction in the market will see FTBers stuck with places that everyone in hindsight agreed were cr@p and never worth what they went for- the number of noughts on the prices now means a mistake like this could take years to come out of.

Hindsight is a beautiful thing- in hindsight I should have bought a place the same time as my sister back in 96- she paid under 70 grand for a brand new 2 bed house- I didn't see the bang coming- I though 70 grand was a fair price for what she got. Since then the market has decided it's now worth 180 grand- sis couldn't afford it now even with "wage" inflation (whatever that is- most people I know have had pretty small increases across the years).

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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