Casual Observer Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls. Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls. Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk! We live in outrageous times. If you said to a Welshman at the beginning of Gordon's reign in 1997 that his cottage would rise 300% he would have called you a daft bugger. Who would have imagined HPI at anywhere near today's levels with FTBs all but totally priced out? With banks offering mortages to groups of 4? 1.2 trillion pounds of personal debt? FTBers buying like mad when yeilfds are negative and banks still willing to loan? We do live in strange times and the economy has been distorted far beyond historical tolerances. Its gotta bust and when it does it will be spectacular. Who knows, houses could drop 60%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needle Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls. Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk! Hmm....predictions, you say? Extrapolating from a long running rise is not really a prediction though, is it? I agree there are some nutty bears on here too though. but - We live in outrageous times. If you said to a Welshman at the beginning of Gordon's reign in 1997 that his cottage would rise 300% he would have called you a daft bugger. ... With banks offering mortages to groups of 4? 1.2 trillion pounds of personal debt? FTBers buying like mad when yeilfds are negative and banks still willing to loan? We do live in strange times and the economy has been distorted far beyond historical tolerances. Its gotta bust and when it does it will be spectacular. Who knows, houses could drop 60%. You gotta admit RB makes some compelling points here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 Hmm....predictions, you say? Extrapolating from a long running rise is not really a prediction though, is it? I agree there are some nutty bears on here too though. but - You gotta admit RB makes some compelling points here. I think he's right in that people didn't expect the huge rises we've seen, but you could argue that the fact that they have risen so far means that we all misunderstood the economic factors at play. And we are where we are, so the fact that something exceptional has happened does not mean that something equally exceptional is in any way likely to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cockrobin Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 We live in outrageous times. If you said to a Welshman at the beginning of Gordon's reign in 1997 that his cottage would rise 300% he would have called you a daft bugger. Who would have imagined HPI at anywhere near today's levels with FTBs all but totally priced out? With banks offering mortages to groups of 4? 1.2 trillion pounds of personal debt? FTBers buying like mad when yeilfds are negative and banks still willing to loan? We do live in strange times and the economy has been distorted far beyond historical tolerances. Its gotta bust and when it does it will be spectacular. Who knows, houses could drop 60%. I've said it before and I'll say it again, there will be an economic recession in this country and it will effect everything including house prices. How exactly it will effect house prices we can not be totally sure but it is inconceivable that they will not be affected. I say a drop between 10% and 40%, what do all you crazy cats say? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 I've said it before and I'll say it again, there will be an economic recession in this country and it will effect everything including house prices. How exactly it will effect house prices we can not be totally sure but it is inconceivable that they will not be affected. I say a drop between 10% and 40%, what do all you crazy cats say? HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cockrobin Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years If that happens I'll eat my watch strap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years What if wages do not inflate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Realistbear Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years History shows that HPI and wages keep inline over the long haul. When HPI gets out of line a correction always follows to make up for the irrationally exhuberant years. I think the bottom line is, as always, there ain't no free lunch. And we have had one hell of a HPI party--the biggest in history. To expect a mild hangover from the orgy of borrowing 6 or even 8 times income to buy (if buying is the right term given the IO mortgages and other forms of creative financing to get around the laws of economics) commodity that has risen 130% in 5 years without the fundamentals to back it up spells wishful thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tahoma Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years CO, is it just me, or are your posts here driven by a desire for HPI to continue until you retire and downsize/emigrate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sun n sea Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 The real point is surely that house prices and affordability parted company a long time ago. Back in reality people can't afford to buy right now- if you think house prices are gonna keep on zooming up then you must know of some untapped sector of the workforce being paid a mint- otherwise who's going to keep buying? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest muttley Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Who's The Most Outrageous, Bulls or Bears? It seems to me that the "Neithers" have been the most vocal of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bull''s Advocate Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 For each crazy outrageous post from a bull, there's a hundred from bears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Charlie The Tramp Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Well here is a very good poster to read. Three first class posts. serpico Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 CO, is it just me, or are your posts here driven by a desire for HPI to continue until you retire and downsize/emigrate? The problem is, you mistake a prediction for a desire . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneymad Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 I've said it before and I'll say it again, there will be an economic recession in this country and it will effect everything including house prices. How exactly it will effect house prices we can not be totally sure but it is inconceivable that they will not be affected. I say a drop between 10% and 40%, what do all you crazy cats say? If you think between 10-40% drop at which point would you buy? 11%? Or 39%? If/when they drop by 10-40% will they rise again? All the bears seem to avoid that part of the cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted September 11, 2006 Share Posted September 11, 2006 Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls. Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk! I guarantee you will not be posting on this site under your current username in 6 months time. (extra smilies just for you CO as I know how much you like them) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 11, 2006 Author Share Posted September 11, 2006 I guarantee you will not be posting on this site under your current username in 6 months time. (extra smilies just for you CO as I know how much you like them) Can I have a little framed guarantee certificate from you? I've already got similar guarantees from other posters, from about 6 months ago! I'll add yours to the collection (come to think of it, you may already be one of them!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest grumpy-old-man Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Can I have a little framed guarantee certificate from you? I've already got similar guarantees from other posters, from about 6 months ago! I'll add yours to the collection (come to think of it, you may already be one of them!). hello CO, good reply yes, but my prediction is now, not 6 months ago.....this is it now (the BIG 1) & I think you know it as your postings have changed in the last 3 months compared to a year ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I'M WITH STUPID Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 The problem is, you mistake a prediction for a desire . A common mistake of STRs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls. Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk! Perhaps bears are showing signs of depseration, disillusionment, despair ?etc. I'm not sure you would relate to that. I'm also not sure why you proclaim to be a 'neither bull nor bear' and at the same time continuously pick and poke at the bear arguments. They're not all outrageous! HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years that's interesting. After 18 months to 2 yrs of stagnation in my area, house prices will pick up again? What will cause this?.........and what has caused them to stall? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 I'm also not sure why you proclaim to be a 'neither bull nor bear' and at the same time continuously pick and poke at the bear arguments. They're not all outrageous! that's interesting. I only pick on the outrageous Bear posts! You can rest assured that I would also have a go at a bull who said that prices will rise 10% or more in the future, but none of them ever do!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 I only pick on the outrageous Bear posts! You can rest assured that I would also have a go at a bull who said that prices will rise 10% or more in the future, but none of them ever do!! That's because most of the bulls have gone Why could that be? Where is TTRTR? BBB? Hiding in a corner and praying to the lord I expect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casual Observer Posted September 12, 2006 Author Share Posted September 12, 2006 After 18 months to 2 yrs of stagnation in my area, house prices will pick up again? What will cause this?.........and what has caused them to stall? Well, since I expect wage inflation to be around 3% over the next 5 years, I don't think I've predicted much in the way of house price rises. Maybe between 0 and 5%. That's because most of the bulls have gone Why could that be? Where is TTRTR? BBB? Hiding in a corner and praying to the lord I expect. To be fair, I'm not sure either of them predicted massive HPI. They just seemed to argue against a crash, which seems a reasonable thing to do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest pioneer31 Posted September 12, 2006 Share Posted September 12, 2006 Well, since I expect wage inflation to be around 3% over the next 5 years, I don't think I've predicted much in the way of house price rises. Maybe between 0 and 5%. but my question(s) remain unanswered WHY will they rise, when they're not rising now? Well, since I expect wage inflation to be around 3% over the next 5 years, I don't think I've predicted much in the way of house price rises. Maybe between 0 and 5%. To be fair, I'm not sure either of them predicted massive HPI. They just seemed to argue against a crash, which seems a reasonable thing to do. They predicted continual growth, which in my opinion is a stupid as some of the more outrageous bear posts. WHEN in history, have we EVER had uninterrupted continual growth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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