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Who's The Most Outrageous, Bulls Or Bears?

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Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls.

Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk!

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Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls.

Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk!

We live in outrageous times. If you said to a Welshman at the beginning of Gordon's reign in 1997 that his cottage would rise 300% he would have called you a daft bugger.

Who would have imagined HPI at anywhere near today's levels with FTBs all but totally priced out? With banks offering mortages to groups of 4? 1.2 trillion pounds of personal debt? FTBers buying like mad when yeilfds are negative and banks still willing to loan?

We do live in strange times and the economy has been distorted far beyond historical tolerances. Its gotta bust and when it does it will be spectacular. Who knows, houses could drop 60%.

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Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls.

Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk!

Hmm....predictions, you say?

Extrapolating from a long running rise is not really a prediction though, is it?

I agree there are some nutty bears on here too though. but -

We live in outrageous times. If you said to a Welshman at the beginning of Gordon's reign in 1997 that his cottage would rise 300% he would have called you a daft bugger.

... With banks offering mortages to groups of 4? 1.2 trillion pounds of personal debt? FTBers buying like mad when yeilfds are negative and banks still willing to loan?

We do live in strange times and the economy has been distorted far beyond historical tolerances. Its gotta bust and when it does it will be spectacular. Who knows, houses could drop 60%.

You gotta admit RB makes some compelling points here.

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Hmm....predictions, you say?

Extrapolating from a long running rise is not really a prediction though, is it?

I agree there are some nutty bears on here too though. but -

You gotta admit RB makes some compelling points here.

I think he's right in that people didn't expect the huge rises we've seen, but you could argue that the fact that they have risen so far means that we all misunderstood the economic factors at play. And we are where we are, so the fact that something exceptional has happened does not mean that something equally exceptional is in any way likely to happen.

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We live in outrageous times. If you said to a Welshman at the beginning of Gordon's reign in 1997 that his cottage would rise 300% he would have called you a daft bugger.

Who would have imagined HPI at anywhere near today's levels with FTBs all but totally priced out? With banks offering mortages to groups of 4? 1.2 trillion pounds of personal debt? FTBers buying like mad when yeilfds are negative and banks still willing to loan?

We do live in strange times and the economy has been distorted far beyond historical tolerances. Its gotta bust and when it does it will be spectacular. Who knows, houses could drop 60%.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, there will be an economic recession in this country and it will effect everything including house prices. How exactly it will effect house prices we can not be totally sure but it is inconceivable that they will not be affected.

I say a drop between 10% and 40%, what do all you crazy cats say?

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, there will be an economic recession in this country and it will effect everything including house prices. How exactly it will effect house prices we can not be totally sure but it is inconceivable that they will not be affected.

I say a drop between 10% and 40%, what do all you crazy cats say?

HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years

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HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years

History shows that HPI and wages keep inline over the long haul. When HPI gets out of line a correction always follows to make up for the irrationally exhuberant years. I think the bottom line is, as always, there ain't no free lunch. And we have had one hell of a HPI party--the biggest in history. To expect a mild hangover from the orgy of borrowing 6 or even 8 times income to buy (if buying is the right term given the IO mortgages and other forms of creative financing to get around the laws of economics) commodity that has risen 130% in 5 years without the fundamentals to back it up spells wishful thinking.

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HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years

CO, is it just me, or are your posts here driven by a desire for HPI to continue until you retire and downsize/emigrate? :P

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The real point is surely that house prices and affordability parted company a long time ago.

Back in reality people can't afford to buy right now- if you think house prices are gonna keep on zooming up then you must know of some untapped sector of the workforce being paid a mint- otherwise who's going to keep buying?

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Guest muttley
Who's The Most Outrageous, Bulls or Bears?

It seems to me that the "Neithers" have been the most vocal of late.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, there will be an economic recession in this country and it will effect everything including house prices. How exactly it will effect house prices we can not be totally sure but it is inconceivable that they will not be affected.

I say a drop between 10% and 40%, what do all you crazy cats say?

If you think between 10-40% drop at which point would you buy? 11%? Or 39%? If/when they drop by 10-40% will they rise again? All the bears seem to avoid that part of the cycle.

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls.

Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk!

I guarantee you will not be posting on this site under your current username in 6 months time. :P:P:P (extra smilies just for you CO as I know how much you like them) ;):ph34r:

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I guarantee you will not be posting on this site under your current username in 6 months time. :P:P:P (extra smilies just for you CO as I know how much you like them) ;):ph34r:

Can I have a little framed guarantee certificate from you? :lol:

I've already got similar guarantees from other posters, from about 6 months ago! I'll add yours to the collection (come to think of it, you may already be one of them!).

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Guest grumpy-old-man

Can I have a little framed guarantee certificate from you? :lol:

I've already got similar guarantees from other posters, from about 6 months ago! I'll add yours to the collection (come to think of it, you may already be one of them!).

hello CO, good reply :)

yes, but my prediction is now, not 6 months ago.....this is it now (the BIG 1) & I think you know it as your postings have changed in the last 3 months compared to a year ago :ph34r:

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Guest pioneer31

Ever since I've been on this forum, the most bulls have said is that prices won't crash: I've rarely if ever read any of them claiming that prices will rise hugely in the medium term. The bears, in the other hand, quite regularly talk of 60% falls.

Bears often paint bulls as being crazy and wrong, but to my mind they seem to be making the least outrageous predictions, by a long chalk!

Perhaps bears are showing signs of depseration, disillusionment, despair ?etc. I'm not sure you would relate to that.

I'm also not sure why you proclaim to be a 'neither bull nor bear' and at the same time continuously pick and poke at the bear arguments. They're not all outrageous!

HPI around or just below wage inflation for the next 5 years

that's interesting. :blink:

After 18 months to 2 yrs of stagnation in my area, house prices will pick up again?

What will cause this?.........and what has caused them to stall?

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I'm also not sure why you proclaim to be a 'neither bull nor bear' and at the same time continuously pick and poke at the bear arguments. They're not all outrageous!

that's interesting. :blink:

I only pick on the outrageous Bear posts! You can rest assured that I would also have a go at a bull who said that prices will rise 10% or more in the future, but none of them ever do!!

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Guest pioneer31

I only pick on the outrageous Bear posts! You can rest assured that I would also have a go at a bull who said that prices will rise 10% or more in the future, but none of them ever do!!

That's because most of the bulls have gone Why could that be?

Where is TTRTR? BBB?

Hiding in a corner and praying to the lord I expect.

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After 18 months to 2 yrs of stagnation in my area, house prices will pick up again?

What will cause this?.........and what has caused them to stall?

Well, since I expect wage inflation to be around 3% over the next 5 years, I don't think I've predicted much in the way of house price rises. Maybe between 0 and 5%.

That's because most of the bulls have gone Why could that be?

Where is TTRTR? BBB?

Hiding in a corner and praying to the lord I expect.

To be fair, I'm not sure either of them predicted massive HPI. They just seemed to argue against a crash, which seems a reasonable thing to do.

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Guest pioneer31

Well, since I expect wage inflation to be around 3% over the next 5 years, I don't think I've predicted much in the way of house price rises. Maybe between 0 and 5%.

but my question(s) remain unanswered

WHY will they rise, when they're not rising now?

Well, since I expect wage inflation to be around 3% over the next 5 years, I don't think I've predicted much in the way of house price rises. Maybe between 0 and 5%.

To be fair, I'm not sure either of them predicted massive HPI. They just seemed to argue against a crash, which seems a reasonable thing to do.

They predicted continual growth, which in my opinion is a stupid as some of the more outrageous bear posts.

WHEN in history, have we EVER had uninterrupted continual growth?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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