Uk Input Prices Show Sharp Fall

[Bobbins]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5f8b86dc-4175-11db...00779e2340.html

[jp1]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5f8b86dc-4175-11db...00779e2340.html

Says the "independent" ONS

[needle]

"Inflation maybe easing"

Not a chance.

[neitherbullnorbear]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/5f8b86dc-4175-11db...00779e2340.html

Tomorows CPI will be an absolute key event IMO. If it it doveish, combined with this data and the fall in oil prices, it suggests to me that IRs may not go up as much as it looked like recently, and that another 0.25% by year end is not guaranteed.

If your a bear, I think you'd be wanting 2.5% at least.

[sign_of_the_times]

Tomorows CPI will be an absolute key event IMO. If it it doveish, combined with this data and the fall in oil prices, it suggests to me that IRs may not go up as much as it looked like recently, and that another 0.25% by year end is not guaranteed.

If your a bear, I think you'd be wanting 2.5% at least.

"tuition fees have addedv 0.5% to this months CPI, however, this has been offset by the slump in price of UK passports on the black market"

[neitherbullnorbear]

Strange, now I come to think of it, that Unrealisticbear, so normally the first to post news, missed this one.

[needle]

Tomorows CPI will be an absolute key event IMO. If it it doveish, combined with this data and the fall in oil prices, it suggests to me that IRs may not go up as much as it looked like recently, and that another 0.25% by year end is not guaranteed.

If your a bear, I think you'd be wanting 2.5% at least.

Look, the CPI is a complete irrelevance.

Its been shown over and over again to be fiddled.

And even with that its still on the rise.

Does anyone seriously believe that a .25 increase in rates last month will bring the figures down?

Secondly, the 'oil price falling' is also a nonsense.

Oil is what, $68?

Its only 5 years since it was $10 and roughly 2 years since it was about $35.

Any one calling this a 'fall' in oil prices needs their head examined.

[Golden Shower]

Look, the CPI is a complete irrelevance.

Its been shown over and over again to be fiddled.

And even with that its still on the rise.

Does anyone seriously believe that a .25 increase in rates last month will bring the figures down?

Secondly, the 'oil price falling' is also a nonsense.

Oil is what, $68?

Its only 5 years since it was $10 and roughly 2 years since it was about $35.

Any one calling this a 'fall' in oil prices needs their head examined.

CPI is relevant because that's what the BoE are told to target!

Oil maybe $68, but that's a whole lot less than last month and may even be down on this time last year (although I haven't checked this).

[neitherbullnorbear]

Look, the CPI is a complete irrelevance.

Its been shown over and over again to be fiddled.

And even with that its still on the rise.

Does anyone seriously believe that a .25 increase in rates last month will bring the figures down?

Secondly, the 'oil price falling' is also a nonsense.

Oil is what, $68?

Its only 5 years since it was $10 and roughly 2 years since it was about $35.

Any one calling this a 'fall' in oil prices needs their head examined.

Christ on a Honda 500cc - I don't know where to begin on this one. May I suggest that you go to the BoE web page, after familiarising yourself with the phrases "annual" and "month-on-month". Failing that, if your really want to live in a make believe world where the CPI is irrelevant, that's fine by me.

Warmest regards,

NBNB.

[needle]

CPI is relevant because that's what the BoE are told to target!

Oil maybe $68, but that's a whole lot less than last month and may even be down on this time last year (although I haven't checked this).

...and of course these month-on-month figures are very relevant.

The point is that the CPI is a load of ****** and so are the inflation figures.

Its irrelevance is down to this (not the fact that its used to target interest rates).

I understand your point about its relevence to interest rates but how the fk anyone can believe that a govt institution has successfully targeted a govt designed and managed indicator for years......thats just stretching gullibility to extreme.

Christ on a Honda 500cc - I don't know where to begin on this one. May I suggest that you go to the BoE web page, after familiarising yourself with the phrases "annual" and "month-on-month". Failing that, if your really want to live in a make believe world where the CPI is irrelevant, that's fine by me.

FFS - go the the BoE webpage? Yeah, I'll read the Hutton report while I'm at it.

The war in Iraq is about weapons of mass destruction too, I believe.

The BoE is the pillar of your arguement?

The very institution that sets interest rates?

Next you'll be providing links to the CBI backing up theories on business.

Can this be pinned, please? Its pure genius.

[Casual Observer]

Can we please leave off with this "CPI is fiddled" nonsense. If they'd continued to target RPI or RPI-X the movement in IRs would have been identical.

[tenroom]

Does anyone seriously believe that a .25 increase in rates last month will bring the figures down?

Have a quick read over the post from the beginning of August . . . you'd have thought prices were going to plummet 25% overnight. Obviously, the increase won't filter down into any meaningful statistics until November but I don't hink it'll make any significant difference. There WILL be another increase this year though and at that point, SENTIMENT could begin to change.