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Realistbear

N Ireland And Wales See Hpi Fall, Nationally 6% Yo Y

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http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060911/323/glr5r.html

Monday September 11, 10:06 AM

UK house prices up 6.0 pct yr-on-yr in July - govt figures
LONDON (AFX) - Government figures showed that UK house prices rose by 6.0 pct from a year ago in July, up from 5.3 pct the previous month, indicating that the property market continues to be robust.
London led gains, with a 7.1 pct rise during the same period, the department for communities and local government said.
Between July and June there was a 1.8 pct rise in the average house price, taking it to 194,454 from 191,016.
England and Scotland saw increases in inflation, while it
fell in Wales and Northern Ireland
. The inflation rate in England rose to 5.5 pct in July from 4.6 pct in June while in Scotland prices rose to 9.3 pct from 8.9 pct. In Northern Ireland, the rate fell to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct and in Wales the rate fell to 7.4 pct from 8.5 pct.

YoY continues to deccelerate. Negative YoY must be at least 6 months away using the ODPM data which some say lags about 6 months.

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Figures confirm what's happening in my area--HPI down to a measley 3.9%. No wonder so many BTL properties are on the market with no upward chain! With yields at a 5 year low coupled with almost no HPI it was time to get out a couple of years ago. While YoY may show 3.9% the Q on Q must be lower.

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It states in that Yahoo link...

In Northern Ireland, the rate fell to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct

So in other words house prices in Northern Ireland have gone up by 18.3pct...

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Shouldn't your thread title be HPI increase falls in NI and Wales? All that has happened is that the price increase has slowed by 1.4% in Wales, and 0.8% in NIreland - is this really cause for celebration? N Ireland is still experiencing a huge increase in prices YoY

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Full release: http://www.communities.gov.uk/pub/778/Hous...6_id1502778.pdf

BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5334044.stm

From the Beeb:

"The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)
said prices rose by 6.0% during the month
, up from 5.2% in the year to June."

Again, the BBC get it wrong.

They changed it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"
The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)
said prices rose by 6.0% in the year to July
, up from 5.2% in the year to June."

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Shouldn't your thread title be HPI increase falls in NI and Wales? All that has happened is that the price increase has slowed by 1.4% in Wales, and 0.8% in NIreland - is this really cause for celebration? N Ireland is still experiencing a huge increase in prices YoY

The article puts it like this:

In Northern Ireland, the rate
fell
to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct and in Wales the rate
fell
to 7.4 pct from 8.5 pct.

Negative YoY will take awhile. It has too slow until it reaches the tipping point and then you start to see YoY negatives that grow each month for a few years and so on. The key word here is "fell." Perhaps the beginning of a trend--all depends on the Miracle Economy's ability to keep borrowing at current levels without anyone going broke in the process.

Edited by Realistbear

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They changed it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"
The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)
said prices rose by 6.0% in the year to July
, up from 5.2% in the year to June."

They sure did, I thought I was going ga ga.

I'm surprised the original link does not take one to the original page though as my time at the BBC revealed that they have to have copies of everything they put out on air. Maybe it's different for internet.

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I think it's reasonable to expect HPI to be around 5% for the year as a whole, I don't think this acceleration will be sustained. However as ever the headline figure will mask significant regional differences.

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Perhaps the beginning of a trend--all depends on the Miracle Economy's ability to keep borrowing at current levels without anyone going broke in the process.

You, sir, have surpassed yourself. <_<

House price growth in London INCREASED from 5.8pc YoY to 7pc YoY

England overall INCREASED from 4.6pc to 5.5pc

Scotland overall INCREASED from 8.9pc to 9.3pc

Growth in Wales and NI dipped slightly, but remained well in the black.

How on earth can you view the above as indicative of a crash? House prices have increased significantly; we are nowhere near negative territory.

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You, sir, have surpassed yourself. <_<

House price growth in London INCREASED from 5.8pc YoY to 7pc YoY

England overall INCREASED from 4.6pc to 5.5pc

Scotland overall INCREASED from 8.9pc to 9.3pc

Growth in Wales and NI dipped slightly, but remained well in the black.

How on earth can you view the above as indicative of a crash? House prices have increased significantly; we are nowhere near negative territory.

"Perhaps the beginning of a trend"

I actually said it is perhaps indicative of a trend. Crashes are the end product of a trend that continues long enough.

IMO, the top of the trend was 2004 with a sluggish and slightdownturn in 2005 and a slight correction upward in 2006 relative to 2005. 2007 onwards should see a continuation of the trend line established in 2004-2005. The market will have "crashed" in the past tense sense of the word after House prices have dropped 20% from their peak. The trend shows you which direction the market is going.

The weakness in Yoy figures is that they tell us the history of the market in relation to what happened a year ago. A trend toward a crash can happen quickly and be occuring while YoY remains positive.

Edited by Realistbear

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I'm afraid the news just gets worse and worse and worse, nothing can stop the stupidity of the borrowing public except more rate rises which isn't going to happen. I give up.

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As this thread risks straying into marginally surreal territory, here is the unspun regional picture painted by the DLGC figures and with a bit of historical perspective thrown in for good measure. ;)

Link: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/odpm_regional/

DCLG Regional House Prices, to July 2006

odpmregionaljuly2006jy8.png

Edited by spline

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Guest Homer

You, sir, have surpassed yourself. <_<

Growth in Wales and NI dipped slightly, but remained well in the black.

How on earth can you view the above as indicative of a crash? House prices have increased significantly; we are nowhere near negative territory.

I second the above. RB is making this forum a joke. If a bull posted something as blatently incorrect as this they'd get banned

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Guest wrongmove

They changed it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"
The Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG)
said prices rose by 6.0% in the year to July
, up from 5.2% in the year to June."

Jason strikes again ! :)

MoM was still 1.8% though, compared to 1.1% for the same MoM last year.

Alas, approvals data is still predicting the trend.

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I second the above. RB is making this forum a joke. If a bull posted something as blatently incorrect as this they'd get banned

I suggest you complain to the author of the article--I just cut and pasted their apparent spin. Well spotted Jason--must be the BBC and the government spinmeisters getting too excited over yet more inflation in the economy. :lol:

Here is the post again in case you have become confused:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060911/323/glr5r.html

Monday September 11, 10:06 AM
UK house prices up 6.0 pct yr-on-yr in July - govt figures
LONDON (AFX) - Government figures showed that UK house prices rose by 6.0 pct from a year ago in July, up from 5.3 pct the previous month, indicating that the property market continues to be robust.
London led gains, with a 7.1 pct rise during the same period, the department for communities and local government said.
Between July and June there was a 1.8 pct rise in the average house price, taking it to 194,454 from 191,016.
England and Scotland saw increases in inflation, while it fell in Wales and Northern Ireland. The inflation rate in England rose to 5.5 pct in July from 4.6 pct in June while in Scotland prices rose to 9.3 pct from 8.9 pct.
In Northern Ireland, the rate
fell
to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct and in Wales the rate
fell
to 7.4 pct from 8.5 pct.
YoY continues to deccelerate. Negative YoY must be at least 6 months away using the ODPM data which some say lags about 6 months.

Thread title:

N Ireland And Wales See Hpi Fall, Nationally 6% Yo Y, According to ODPM anyway

As both Wales and NI saw a drop in HPI with national HPI at 6% it seems that there has been both drops in HPI in Wales and NI and a decceleration in the rate of HPI nationally from around 8% down to 6%--at least if we can trust the Halifax data. Not good news for Bulls but what are you going to do? You can't just ignore it and hope it goes away. <_<

THinking about it, I think your confusion may be the word used in the artcile: "fell." You might have thought that the rate of HPI increased? They are saying that the rate of increase acutally dropped or deccelerated and it is in this sense they are saying HPI "fell" as opposed to "rose."

:blink:

Edited by Realistbear

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I suggest you complain to the author of the article--I just cut and pasted their apparent spin. Well spotted Jason--must be the BBC and the government spinmeisters getting too excited over yet more inflation in the economy. :lol:

Here is the post again in case you have become confused:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060911/323/glr5r.html

Monday September 11, 10:06 AM
UK house prices up 6.0 pct yr-on-yr in July - govt figures
LONDON (AFX) - Government figures showed that UK house prices rose by 6.0 pct from a year ago in July, up from 5.3 pct the previous month, indicating that the property market continues to be robust.
London led gains, with a 7.1 pct rise during the same period, the department for communities and local government said.
Between July and June there was a 1.8 pct rise in the average house price, taking it to 194,454 from 191,016.
England and Scotland saw increases in inflation, while it fell in Wales and Northern Ireland. The inflation rate in England rose to 5.5 pct in July from 4.6 pct in June while in Scotland prices rose to 9.3 pct from 8.9 pct.
In Northern Ireland, the rate
fell
to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct and in Wales the rate
fell
to 7.4 pct from 8.5 pct.
YoY continues to deccelerate. Negative YoY must be at least 6 months away using the ODPM data which some say lags about 6 months.

Thread title:

N Ireland And Wales See Hpi Fall, Nationally 6% Yo Y, According to ODPM anyway

As both Wales and NI saw a drop in HPI with national HPI at 6% it seems that there has been both drops in HPI in Wales and NI and a decceleration in the rate of HPI nationally from around 8% down to 6%--at least if we can trust the Halifax data. Not good news for Bulls but what are you going to do? You can't just ignore it and hope it goes away. <_<

THinking about it, I think your confusion may be the word used in the artcile: "fell." You might have thought that the rate of HPI increased? They are saying that the rate of increase acutally dropped or deccelerated and it is in this sense they are saying HPI "fell" as opposed to "rose."

:blink:

Except that the line starting "YoY continues to deccelerate..." DOES NOT APPEAR in the article you've highlighted! However, IMO you've made it appear so that it does to boost your case!

Here's the actual article (cut-and-paste without editing):

UK house prices up 6.0 pct yr-on-yr in July - govt figures

LONDON (AFX) - Government figures showed that UK house prices rose by 6.0 pct from a year ago in July, up from 5.3 pct the previous month, indicating that the property market continues to be robust.

London led gains, with a 7.1 pct rise during the same period, the department for communities and local government said.

Between July and June there was a 1.8 pct rise in the average house price, taking it to 194,454 from 191,016.

England and Scotland saw increases in inflation, while it fell in Wales and Northern Ireland. The inflation rate in England rose to 5.5 pct in July from 4.6 pct in June while in Scotland prices rose to 9.3 pct from 8.9 pct. In Northern Ireland, the rate fell to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct and in Wales the rate fell to 7.4 pct from 8.5 pct.

sivakumar.sithraputhran@afxnews.com

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The copying, republication or redistribution of AFX News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of AFX News.

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I'm afraid the news just gets worse and worse and worse, nothing can stop the stupidity of the borrowing public except more rate rises which isn't going to happen. I give up.

Don't despair. Have yourself a fix of "RBspin", you'll feel much better. Here we go: "This is good news for Bears"

The reality? Prices are still rising, so there are clearly enough people out there buying properties at increasingly high prices. We are nowhere near a crash.

Edited by Casual Observer

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If the YoY is 6% it is a huge shift down from the double digit increases of a couple of years ago. It is a deccelerating market and it may be true that, nationally at least, YoY is still 6%--which is what the header said. I pointed to the falls in HPI in Wales and especially NI as they have been heading skyward for several months.

This area get a lot of coverage on a similar HPC site: Wall Street Journal's property section. The Bulls, until recently, kept pointing to positive YoY results to prove that house prices were still going up. The Bears kept saying that the recent events in the property market show the opposite. Many areas in the USD are only just now turning YoY negative--a shock to many because they diodn't focus on the trend line and when it began to change.

IMO, its very interesting to see NI with a fall--even though small.

http://discussions.realestatejournal.com/R...20Discussions/1

Interesting to see some of the threads and how the Bears are delighting rubbing the Bull's noses in the grim HPC news over in the US market.

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If the YoY is 6% it is a huge shift down from the double digit increases of a couple of years ago. It is a deccelerating market and it may be true that, nationally at least, YoY is still 6%--which is what the header said. I pointed to the falls in HPI in Wales and especially NI as they have been heading skyward for several months.

This area get a lot of coverage on a similar HPC site: Wall Street Journal's property section. The Bulls, until recently, kept pointing to positive YoY results to prove that house prices were still going up. The Bears kept saying that the recent events in the property market show the opposite. Many areas in the USD are only just now turning YoY negative--a shock to many because they diodn't focus on the trend line and when it began to change.

IMO, its very interesting to see NI with a fall--even though small.

http://discussions.realestatejournal.com/R...20Discussions/1

Interesting to see some of the threads and how the Bears are delighting rubbing the Bull's noses in the grim HPC news over in the US market.

I don't think anyone expected double digit HPI for ever, but a slow down to 6% is exactly the scenario most bulls have been painting for some time. I personally think that HPI will between 0 and 5% for a long, long time now.

It's interesting actually, when you think about it: for a long time now Bulls have been predicting no more than stagnating or low price rises, whilst Bears predict falls of up to 60%! And the funny thing is, it's the Bears that call the bulls crazy, with their outrageous suggestions!

Edited by Casual Observer

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I don't think anyone expected double digit HPI for ever, but a slow down to 6% is exactly the scenario most bulls have been painting for some time. I personally think that HPI will between 0 and 5% for a long, long time now.

It's interesting actually, when you think about it: for a long time now Bulls have been predicting no more than stagnating or low price rises, whilst Bears predict falls of up to 60%! And the funny thing is, it's the Bears that call the bulls crazy!

I can see 40% down in some areas. The peak is staggeringly high and with the average house now more than 6 X average salary there has to be a commensurate correction. Over the long haul--house prices have never strayed from average wages without a sharp correction. It just does not work any other way.

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The article puts it like this:

In Northern Ireland, the rate
fell
to 18.3 pct from 19.1 pct and in Wales the rate
fell
to 7.4 pct from 8.5 pct.

Negative YoY will take awhile. It has too slow until it reaches the tipping point and then you start to see YoY negatives that grow each month for a few years and so on. The key word here is "fell." Perhaps the beginning of a trend--all depends on the Miracle Economy's ability to keep borrowing at current levels without anyone going broke in the process.

We all know what happened when the leading house price indices YOY figures approached zero, yes they took off again.

Prices are insane but there are people prepared to borrow insane amounts.

Edited by simon99

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I The peak is staggeringly high and with the average house now more than 6 X average salary there has to be a commensurate correction. .

With IR at at least half their historic average, I'm not at all surprised that we have a new multiple of average salaries. why wouldn't we, it's monthly repayments that affects most house buyers. And if IRs ever rose, it would be accompanied by higher wage inflation, which is benign for people with large debts.

Edited by Casual Observer

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  • 337 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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