The Latest From Roubini

[Wol]

Now it is clear even to reality-blindfolded perma-bulls that housing is not going through a “soft landing” or an “orderly adjustment” but rather through an ugly and nasty bust, as severe as we have seen in decades. Soon enough the only thing “soft” or “orderly” about this comatose housing market will be the undertaker carrying the coffin.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

There may be a number of good reasons not to draw parallels between the US and UK housing markets, but I find it increasingly difficult to believe there will be no knock-on effect in the UK.

[Marina]

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini

There may be a number of good reasons not to draw parallels between the US and UK housing markets, but I find it increasingly difficult to believe there will be no knock-on effect in the UK.

Maybe the Atlantic Ocean and the fact they are different countries and ecomomies should give you a clue.

In this country you can have a booming market in London and a stalled market in Leeds and vice versa. Last year the London market was dead and the regions were rising fast. This year the reverse is true.

And, unless there is a proper recession, the limited supply of housing in this country makes it relatively immune to problems in the wider economy.

[gordonbrown]

Maybe the Atlantic Ocean and the fact they are different countries and ecomomies should give you a clue.

In this country you can have a booming market in London and a stalled market in Leeds and vice versa. Last year the London market was dead and the regions were rising fast. This year the reverse is true.

And, unless there is a proper recession, the limited supply of housing in this country makes it relatively immune to problems in the wider economy.

Funny that it is happening there though eh? Why is it different I wonder?

Edited September 11, 2006 by gordonbrown

[Realistbear]

Maybe the Atlantic Ocean and the fact they are different countries and ecomomies should give you a clue.

In this country you can have a booming market in London and a stalled market in Leeds and vice versa. Last year the London market was dead and the regions were rising fast. This year the reverse is true.

And, unless there is a proper recession, the limited supply of housing in this country makes it relatively immune to problems in the wider economy.

Sadly, this is no longer true. Globalisation has made economies even more inter-dependent than before.

Even before the level of globalisation we have today the UK always (not sometimes) followed the US into boom and bust housing cycles beginning with the post WW2 housing "baby boom" exhuberance.

The old adage, when America sneezes we catch cold is still painfully true as our exports market is already demonstrating. How could it be otherwise? The US are our No. 2 trading partners and Europe is likewise heavily dependent on US consumption. We don't export much to Asia do we?

NO, I am afraid we won't escape the economic cycle. Its been a "good" run for almost 10 years but no cycle lasts forever. We are overdue a correction and Al's pre-emptive anti-recessionary strike following 9/11 has just built up more pressures in the tetonic plates of the global economies.

IMO, its time to take up defensive positions.

Edited September 11, 2006 by Realistbear